Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
- Start date
I'd suggest that people have a read of DefenseNews Mar13
If the Turks commit to S400 then the NATO relationship with Turkey becomes unworkable
IMO I'd be suspending F35 sales to Turkey - if they want to drift off let them
If the Turks commit to S400 then the NATO relationship with Turkey becomes unworkable
IMO I'd be suspending F35 sales to Turkey - if they want to drift off let them
I'm honestly surprised Russia would be willing to sell given how close they came to blows with Turkey. Also, at least so far, Turkish anti-cruise missile capability is limited. Something Russia could potentially overwhelm, especially as deployments of Kalibr carriers accelerate. Selling them a top-level system like the S-400 is more then risky. Especially given that they're a NATO member.
regional perspective op-ed
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is destroying democracy from within – and he is not the only one | The National
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is destroying democracy from within – and he is not the only one | The National
Is the S-400 deal really that bad for Russia? I expect it not to come with all the bells and whistles available to Russia itself and I expect them to have a good understanding of how to defeat it and most probably build in some backdoors.
All the while putting more pressure onto the relationship between Turkey and it's partners in Europe and NATO.
They sold the S-300PMU1s to Greece after all.
All the while putting more pressure onto the relationship between Turkey and it's partners in Europe and NATO.
They sold the S-300PMU1s to Greece after all.
They sold it to Cyprus. And Greece and Cyprus have a special relationship with Russia. That having been said, the S-300 was exported at a time when such things were possible. There was a different kind of leadership in Russia at that time. Today this seems far less likely.
There was a time when Turkey was referred to as the sick man of Europe. But then again it has always been the question is Turkey part of Europe/Asia or the middle East.
Regardless of the Geography question it is currently a dangerous political mess sharing a Eastern Mediterranean and black sea position straddled by conflict and uncertainty.
Hard to know weather to engage or back off with Turkeys new ELECTED dictator.
Suspect he is not too fussed about domestic consumption having such a strong arm.
Regards S
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #32
Erdogan is having trouble with the US and NATO over Turkey's decision to acquire the Russian S-400 SAM capability. Both the US and NATO argue that Russian equipment is not compatible with NATO systems. I note that Greece has the S-300 system, so wonder what workarounds the Greeks have.
Also Erdogan is spitting the dummy over the US indictment of Zafer Caglayan, Erdogan’s economy minister from 2011-2013. The indictment is for breaking the Iran sanctions and money laundering. Caglayan also faced corruption charges in Turkey, however the Turkish govt made the charges disappear.
Also Erdogan is spitting the dummy over the US indictment of Zafer Caglayan, Erdogan’s economy minister from 2011-2013. The indictment is for breaking the Iran sanctions and money laundering. Caglayan also faced corruption charges in Turkey, however the Turkish govt made the charges disappear.
The greek 300 was completely different circumstances, and the only reason the greeks got it, was to de-escalate the situation between Turkey and Cyprus. Its not integrated, it would be about enforcing a complete no go zone.
The Turkish S-400 is a symbol of Turkeys ambiguous allegiance. Why does Turkey want to be able shoot down NATO aircraft.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The way Erdogan is acting Turkey will be out of NATO in the not too distant future.
Sort of. The Greek S-300s are integrated with other Russian gear the Greeks have. I'll poke around and see if I can find anything about their use of the S-300 with western gear.
Are you saying they wouldn't be able to use a Patriot battery to shoot down NATO aircraft? If that's true, that kind of limitation on their ability to employ their own equipment would be reason enough not to buy it, regardless of intent. That having been said, Greece is in NATO. Why would Turkey want to shoot down Greek planes.
:On a side-note Turkey wanted an advanced piece of GBAD at a competitive price. Traditionally western-sourced GBAD has been less impressive, and there's less to choose from. Their original choice was Turkish, because Russia offered the S-300VM (Antey-2500). They hinted, even back then, that they wanted Russia to offer the S-400. It's hardly surprising that the Turks went for it when the opportunity presented itself both as a signal of their displeasure with the US stance in the region, and as a way to get what they were looking for all along.
US equipment is designed generally to stop blue on blue engagements. Australia has had issue in the past for example, getting F-18's to shoot down F-16's. Obviously a patriot battery isn't designed to take down US made aircraft.Are you saying they wouldn't be able to use a Patriot battery to shoot down NATO aircraft? If that's true, that kind of limitation on their ability to employ their own equipment would be reason enough not to buy it, regardless of intent. That having been said, Greece is in NATO. Why would Turkey want to shoot down Greek planes.
Greece and Turkey sure have issues, but Turkey has been working towards its own idigenous tech to take care of Greece. Also greece is broke. They won't be attacking anyone.
I would not be surprised if the US is more worried about Turkey enforcing a no fly zone, against the whole of NATO including the US, around Syria.Turkey can do what it wants in and around turkey and turn off US airstrikes.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #37
Erdogan has declared victory in Turkey's latest election so now Turkey enters a new era of quasi dictatorial / totalitarian government. I think that Turkey's involvement in NATO will have to be re-evaluated by the rest of NATO as it drifts further from NATO and European values. This means that it could possibly be seen as an evolving and increasing security risk for NATO and Europe.
Is Turkey East or West of in fact the centre of the world.
Answer - depends who you ask.
For the European defence pact called NATO, Turkey has always being a difficult call.
No clear answers but certainly change is taking place, not only in Turkey, but across the Eastern Med.
An ill funded NATO with a reluctant USA will add to the pace of change.
So keep an eye on Turkey and also Russia, the bear has ambitions.
Regards S
PS European values, well there for the Europeans.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Absolutely and after the US Senate put in a “no F-35 for Turkey” clause in a recent US defence authourization apparently one F-35 has been delivered.
As long as Erdogan is around, Turkey and NATO should be DOA, just like EU membership. Every aspect of F-35 involvement should have been terminated over a year ago.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Just a tought..
Even with all his power in controling Turkish beauraucracy and military..Erdogan only manage 52% vote. If Turkish opposition are more well organise (like Malaysian did in last election)..the possibility for Erdogan lost is there..
However if West become harder to Turkey..then it's just enforcing Erdogan's view that the West is bias to Turkey..and increasing his stance for more Turkish centrics policy.
Despite this win..Erdogan power base is actually decreasing..remember he used to get 60%+ support. Turkey economies is not in good shape relatively..it's not as bankrupt as Greece..but decreasing in strength..
Perhaps that's why some factions in US still want Turkey to get those F-35. US since WW2 always got Turkey support..I don't think US want to lost that..especially on current timing..
As for EU..reading some Turkish media and forums..the support in Turkish population to be part of EU already much decreasing even with the opposition suporters..Seems even if Erdogan lost power..Turkey will not pursue EU membership anymore (unless it's granted to them under their term)..
NATO seems is the only thing that still bind Turkey to Western alliance..
Even with all his power in controling Turkish beauraucracy and military..Erdogan only manage 52% vote. If Turkish opposition are more well organise (like Malaysian did in last election)..the possibility for Erdogan lost is there..
However if West become harder to Turkey..then it's just enforcing Erdogan's view that the West is bias to Turkey..and increasing his stance for more Turkish centrics policy.
Despite this win..Erdogan power base is actually decreasing..remember he used to get 60%+ support. Turkey economies is not in good shape relatively..it's not as bankrupt as Greece..but decreasing in strength..
Perhaps that's why some factions in US still want Turkey to get those F-35. US since WW2 always got Turkey support..I don't think US want to lost that..especially on current timing..
As for EU..reading some Turkish media and forums..the support in Turkish population to be part of EU already much decreasing even with the opposition suporters..Seems even if Erdogan lost power..Turkey will not pursue EU membership anymore (unless it's granted to them under their term)..
NATO seems is the only thing that still bind Turkey to Western alliance..