Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[Todjaeger]

There is actually no need to pull any legacy Hornets according to the airforce chief. Our current inventory can last until 2025 which is more than enough time to hold a competition, place an order and start receiving jets by the early 2020s despite our cluster $&?$ military procurement system (hopefully).

That is cutting the timeline awfully close. Using the RAAF Super Hornet order timeline as a guide, it would take approx. 3.5 years for the initial batch to enter service, and another 2 years to reach FOC. This is operating under assumptions like there either being enough spare production or the RCAF getting to jump to the head of the delivery line. It also assumes that whatever is the replacement fighter, RCAF pilots and ground crews can be quickly transitioned to. Due to he similarities between the Classic Hornets and the Super Hornets, RAAF pilots were able to transition more easily than if the design was wholely different.

Canada might not run into problems with the fightet fleet, but decisions need to be made quickly.

 

[gf0012-aust]

That is cutting the timeline awfully close. Using the RAAF Super Hornet order timeline as a guide, it would take approx. 3.5 years for the initial batch to enter service, and another 2 years to reach FOC. This is operating under assumptions like there either being enough spare production or the RCAF getting to jump to the head of the delivery line. It also assumes that whatever is the replacement fighter, RCAF pilots and ground crews can be quickly transitioned to. Due to he similarities between the Classic Hornets and the Super Hornets, RAAF pilots were able to transition more easily than if the design was wholely different.

Canada might not run into problems with the fightet fleet, but decisions need to be made quickly.

yep, and RAAF had a timeline edge as USN gave up some of their delivery slots so that we could acquire faster.....

 

[John Fedup]

yep, and RAAF had a timeline edge as USN gave up some of their delivery slots so that we could acquire faster.....

True, and with the Kuwait order in, as well as the USN's fighter gap, there will be no quick SH delivery so the competition should begin now for an acquisition that will serve the RCAF for the next 30-35 years. That choice shouldn't be the SH or ASH or version X of the SH.

 

[John Fedup]

Apparently Leonardo has decided to challenge the FWSAR award to Airbus in court. I would prefer to see LM challenge the sole source Boeing "interim" SH purchase. Can't see much hope for Leonardo on this challenge.

RCAF fixed-wing SAR contract awarded to Airbus now being challenged in federal court | Ottawa Citizen

 

[hauritz]

Apparently Leonardo has decided to challenge the FWSAR award to Airbus in court. I would prefer to see LM challenge the sole source Boeing "interim" SH purchase. Can't see much hope for Leonardo on this challenge.

RCAF fixed-wing SAR contract awarded to Airbus now being challenged in federal court | Ottawa Citizen

This whole process seems confusing and complex.

There seems to be no information on delivery dates, cost, or even the model of super hornet being sought.

 

[John Fedup]

The only detail I read was the Growler version was not under consideration. As for delivery dates, Boeing has a bit of a dilemma. With the Kuwait order in, likely new pending orders from the USN and perhaps a few more, do you really want to tie up 18 delivery slots waiting for the Canadian military procurement system to get an order out? Maybe our flawed procurement system might work in Canada's favour for once, delaying an order until the delivery schedule for SHs becomes unviable and a competitive bid for a total fighter replacement gets put back on the table.

 

[John Fedup]

That is cutting the timeline awfully close. Using the RAAF Super Hornet order timeline as a guide, it would take approx. 3.5 years for the initial batch to enter service, and another 2 years to reach FOC.

Canada might not run into problems with the fightet fleet, but decisions need to be made quickly.

A tad close using your numbers (total 5.5 years) but the legacy fleet is good to 2025 so we have a bit of a cushion. Nevertheless I hope this interim purchase doesn't happen as it is not in the RCAF's best interest and is a potential trap that could see them forced into an all SH fighter fleet down the road which will not be viable for 35+ years.

 

[Todjaeger]

A tad close using your numbers (total 5.5 years) but the legacy fleet is good to 2025 so we have a bit of a cushion. Nevertheless I hope this interim purchase doesn't happen as it is not in the RCAF's best interest and is a potential trap that could see them forced into an all SH fighter fleet down the road which will not be viable for 35+ years.

Not a 'tad' close as you said. Way too close if not outright impossible. As I alluded to and GF stated, the USN allowed the RAAF SHornet order to take production slots ahead of the existing USN order. If the RAAF order had to wait for the USN order to be completed, then it would have been several years before production commenced on the RAAF order.

For the RCAF to reach FOC with SHornets in approx 5.5 years from now, Boeing would need to able start production on RCAF SHornets in the next couple of months. Given the production line has a max rate of 48 aircraft per year, with production taking approx. 2 years per aircraft... with the existing US and Kuwaiti orders, if the RCAF signed a contract today, production would not start for at least a year. It would be once production commenced that the 'clock' would start the 5.5 year countdown to FOC.

That would likely put FOC right around 2025, if the order was placed now. At present, as best I can make out, the production line is currently producing Growlers for the RAAF (delivery to be completed this year) plus the SHornets for the USN and Kuwait, and possibly more Growlers for the USN.

 

[gf0012-aust]

even if RAAF starts retiring classic hornets early they won't be a viable candidate for Canada to go cap in hand to the State Dept for an FMS transfer - those frames will be well and truly flogged out. maybe some use for spares, but the lower hour models and refurbed CBR units will be kept last so unavailable anyway

its going to go down as a project management model of how politics can impact on a nations warfighting ability just when a competent and capable force needs to be ready and primed

 

[hauritz]

A tad close using your numbers (total 5.5 years) but the legacy fleet is good to 2025 so we have a bit of a cushion. Nevertheless I hope this interim purchase doesn't happen as it is not in the RCAF's best interest and is a potential trap that could see them forced into an all SH fighter fleet down the road which will not be viable for 35+ years.

Possibly the only thing that will prevent Canada from being an all SH fleet is that the aircraft may well be out of production by the time any decision is reached

 

[John Newman]

even if RAAF starts retiring classic hornets early they won't be a viable candidate for Canada to go cap in hand to the State Dept for an FMS transfer - those frames will be well and truly flogged out. maybe some use for spares, but the lower hour models and refurbed CBR units will be kept last so unavailable anyway

its going to go down as a project management model of how politics can impact on a nations warfighting ability just when a competent and capable force needs to be ready and primed

Even 'if' such a thing was to occur, I can't see that the RAAF would be making any airframes available until 'after' all the F-35A's have been delivered, which is late 2023.

Historically when the last two fighter types have been replaced (Mirage by Hornet, and Sabre by Mirage), none of those airframes were exported until the fleet had been replaced.

Again, 'if' such a thing was to occur and 'if' history is to be followed with other replaced types, then there is no way I could see Canada getting their hands on the RAAF's Classic Hornets until 2024-25.

And what would be the point by then anyway??

 

[t68]

That would likely put FOC right around 2025, if the order was placed now. At present, as best I can make out, the production line is currently producing Growlers for the RAAF (delivery to be completed this year) plus the SHornets for the USN and Kuwait, and possibly more Growlers for the USN.

Pretty sure I read on here a few days ago all RAAF aircraft are complete and sitting in a warehouse awaiting delivery, so the line may be free for a short time.

 

[John Newman]

Pretty sure I read on here a few days ago all RAAF aircraft are complete and sitting in a warehouse awaiting delivery, so the line may be free for a short time.

Have read similar.

Airframes Nos 1 & 2 are to stay in the US for the next six months, airframes 3 & 4 are in storage, 5-8 have arrived here, 9-12 are complete, but in storage and will be delivered during the course of the year as aircrews become available to transfer them.

See ADF-Serials:

Welcome to ADF Serials

 

[gf0012-aust]

Even 'if' such a thing was to occur, I can't see that the RAAF would be making any airframes available until 'after' all the F-35A's have been delivered, which is late 2023.

Historically when the last two fighter types have been replaced (Mirage by Hornet, and Sabre by Mirage), none of those airframes were exported until the fleet had been replaced.

Again, 'if' such a thing was to occur and 'if' history is to be followed with other replaced types, then there is no way I could see Canada getting their hands on the RAAF's Classic Hornets until 2024-25.

And what would be the point by then anyway??

as JSF comes online, once those squadrons are filled the Hornets will be stood down or sent to Woomera pending GOTD decision. At that stage they are prime candidates for FMS retransfer. There's a cost to maintaining inert frames and they will want to remove any costs asap - airforce don't want to continue taking it out of operational or sustainment hide.

 

[John Newman]

as JSF comes online, once those squadrons are filled the Hornets will be stood down or sent to Woomera pending GOTD decision. At that stage they are prime candidates for FMS retransfer. There's a cost to maintaining inert frames and they will want to remove any costs asap - airforce don't want to continue taking it out of operational or sustainment hide.

Yes I do understand that there would a cost of maintaining those airframes, and yes I do understand that as each of the four squadrons convert, they will park their Classic airframes, but I would imagine that the 'best of the best' will continue on until the last squadron(s) convert, which is into the early 2020's anyway.

Anyway, I still don't think retired RAAF Classic Hornets are the answer to Canada's problem, it's their Government that is the problem!!

 

[t68]

as JSF comes online, once those squadrons are filled the Hornets will be stood down or sent to Woomera pending GOTD decision. At that stage they are prime candidates for FMS retransfer. There's a cost to maintaining inert frames and they will want to remove any costs asap - airforce don't want to continue taking it out of operational or sustainment hide.

Being as you say flogged out wouldn't they just do a F111 and bury them somewhere, no point keeping them in flyable condition unless someone else wants them and pay.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Anyway, I still don't think retired RAAF Classic Hornets are the answer to Canada's problem, it's their Government that is the problem!!

yep, universal concensus on that. I'd love to be a fly on the wall with Mattis and his canuck counterpart discussing the NATO obligation spending issue - or the Trump/Trudeau discussion on NAFTA - and around JSF deselection but continuing to hold onto core manuf contracts against same.

what a cluster

 

[gf0012-aust]

Being as you say flogged out wouldn't they just do a F111 and bury them somewhere, no point keeping them in flyable condition unless someone else wants them and pay.

we either maintain inert (costs money), bury (unlikely as they are still salvageable from a Davis Monthan perspective for stripping for existing Hornet users) or they become a State Dept FMS retransfer issue if someone wants to buy them - even for parts.

as they are a current capability flying in other countries, I doubt that they would be buried, too many FMS and ITARs issues to contend with. The cost to break down the ITARS bits would be a tad expensive but would have to be done to ensure we maintained compliance

 

[John Newman]

yep, universal concensus on that. I'd love to be a fly on the wall with Mattis and his canuck counterpart discussing the NATO obligation spending issue - or the Trump/Trudeau discussion on NAFTA - and around JSF deselection but continuing to hold onto core manuf contracts against same.

what a cluster

Yes it really is a cluster f......

And it's not just this current Canadian Government, it's equally the fault of the previous Canadian Government too, both sides are responsible (in their own ways), for this mess.

I've been following the 'debate' about the replacement of their CF-18's in the Canadian media for many many years now.

The previous Government didn't have the balls to commit to the F-35, especially when other non-US partner nations, such as Australia, were making firm commitments and placing initial orders too, it just became all too hard!

Whilst our politicians here in Oz rarely agree on anything, at least for the most part defence is 'reasonably' bipartisan, both sides here have been in Government at various stages of committing or ordering F-35A's.

Canada on the other hand, there doesn't appear to be any sort of bipartisan approach to defence, and especially the F-35A's, which became a big political football to kick around.

So what is the solution? Simple really!

* Bipartisan approach to National Security, Defence and Defence expenditure too
* Cancel the plan for the interim Super Hornets
* No more competitions run for the replacement of the Classic Hornets, surely they have 'more' than enough information by now to make a decision
* Order F-35A's, and it doesn't matter which side of politics is in Government, the order proceeds and the other side supports the other's decision
* If the RCAF Classic fleet is 'good' till at least the mid 2020's, place an order for the first F-35A's for delivery from, say around 2020, by this time they will well and truly be at the approx. US$85m per airframe, including engine (kills the argument in Canada regarding 'cost')

Will it happen? Of course not, not going hold my breath!

Will it continue to be a cluster f...? of course it will!

Maybe we will eventually see those retired RAAF Classic Hornets in RCAF service, flying off into the sunset well into the 2030's and beyond!

What a mess...

 

[Todjaeger]

Have read similar.

Airframes Nos 1 & 2 are to stay in the US for the next six months, airframes 3 & 4 are in storage, 5-8 have arrived here, 9-12 are complete, but in storage and will be delivered during the course of the year as aircrews become available to transfer them.

See ADF-Serials:

Welcome to ADF Serials

Had seen that deliveries were to complete this year, had thought prouduction woukd have completed later. There are stll likely to be some USN Growlers and SHornets in production. At least enough to occupy the line for another year or so. That would still delay IOC until something like mid-2020. Again that is assuming there is only about 50 aircraft cuurently booked and any RCAF order gets placed immediately.