Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[John Newman]

Thanks.
Yep, I got it wrong.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...lises-deal-for-90-f-35s-claims-728m-s-433827/

The first LRIP lots, 1-8, didn't include engine cost, but have been included since LRIP 9 (and now LRIP 10 too).

It's interesting to look at the reported unit costs of the various lots - LRIP 1-8 exclude engines, LRIP 9 & 10 include engines (all figures in $ million):

* LRIP 1 - F-35A - $221.2
* LRIP 2 - F-35A - $161.7 - (av cost both A&B)
* LRIP 3 - F-35A - $128.2 - (av cost both A&B) - engine reported to be $16m
* LRIP 4 - F-35A - $111.6
* LRIP 5 - F-35A - $107.0
* LRIP 6 - F-35A - $103.0
* LRIP 7 - F-35A - $98.0
* LRIP 8 - F-35A - $94.8
* LRIP 9 - F-35A - $102.1 - (inc engine) - reported cost of engine $13.3m
* LRIP 10 - F-35A - $94.6 - (inc engine) - assume possibly now around $12m?

LRIP 9 F-35A (excl engine, $13.3) would work out at $88.8, LRIP 10 F-35A (excl engine, assume approx. $12m?) would work out at approx $82.6.

The projection for 2019 (and there is LRIP 11 and FRP 1 in between), the target cost of an F-35A is $83.4m (inc engine).


What did Trump say, The F-35 program is 'out of control'?

Sorry, don't think so!!

 

[t68]

What did Trump say, The F-35 program is 'out of control'?

Sorry, don't think so!!

Oh come on you dam well know Trump got the price down because of twitter :dance just face the alternative facts!

 

[gf0012-aust]

the really significant issue is that it is such a false economy to go out and buy Shornets as an interim acquisition

the need is about force modelling on 5th gen to deal with current threats.

the west is already transitioning to 6th gen capability at the force and system package level as part of the development of organic 6th gen capability against a (specific) platform - once the latter occurs then the blurring transition between 5th and 6th gen specific platforms will be rapid, and the reality is that from a US perspective they already have the growth of that capability occurring in their 5th gen organic fleets (and that will include fixed wing combat UAS)

so for canada it again should be about Growler at the absolute minimum to make sure that they can stay lockstep with the US even if its just meant to stay in relative parity to meet NORAD obligations

considering how quickly both Russia is mobilising ability in canadas northern regions, the fact that Russia and china now regard receding ice as part of legitimate FON, the fact that Russia is seeking to have continental shelf claims redrawn due to receding ice should cause any Canadian Govt to sit up and take notice - because whether you like it or not, your northern regional waters are now identified by some as new legitimate international sea lanes - and the Russians have made that abundantly clear with the number of northern bases and facilities that have been reactivated

if you think that Trump is carrying on about NATO partners in Europe, its pretty apparent that he hasn't even really begun to contemplate the force development issues surrounding Canada

on any given day I just fail to comprehend how the CanGovt has misread the tea-leaves (esp curr POTUS) and is dithering

I don't see it as exagerration by any means to argue that the force development transition between 4th and 5th gen co-operative fighting is akin to the transition between piston engined fighters and the emergence of reliable jet fighters circa WW2 - it is that significant

 

[John Fedup]

Given Trump's bashing of the F-35 program, he has given junior some cover to waste money on SHs! As I understand it, no consideration was given to Growlers. As per an earlier post, a report criticizing the SH interim purchase has been suppressed.

The Trump-junior conservation will not be good news for Canada and the resulting economic chaos that is coming will further erode our ability to buy decent kit, if and when a conservative government happens in 2019-20.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Given Trump's bashing of the F-35 program, he has given junior some cover to waste money on SHs! As I understand it, no consideration was given to Growlers. As per an earlier post, a report criticizing the SH interim purchase has been suppressed.

The Trump-junior conservation will not be good news for Canada and the resulting economic chaos that is coming will further erode our ability to buy decent kit, if and when a conservative government happens in 2019-20.

well, he's pretending that he's caused price reductions to be made, so JSF is not on his radar anymore. remember that he has a short attention span. now that he has "fixed" the price he will move on to another issue.

besides Mattis and Kelly are pro-JSF and he needs both at this stage of the game

 

[rjtjrt]

Given Trump's bashing of the F-35 program, he has given junior some cover to waste money on SHs! As I understand it, no consideration was given to Growlers. As per an earlier post, a report criticizing the SH interim purchase has been suppressed.

The Trump-junior conservation will not be good news for Canada and the resulting economic chaos that is coming will further erode our ability to buy decent kit, if and when a conservative government happens in 2019-20.

Has it been decided what proportion are single seat, and what proportion are 2 seat?
Getting any 2 seaters wired during production, for later Growler conversion, maybe an option.

 

[ADMk2]

Given Trump's bashing of the F-35 program, he has given junior some cover to waste money on SHs! As I understand it, no consideration was given to Growlers. As per an earlier post, a report criticizing the SH interim purchase has been suppressed.

The Trump-junior conservation will not be good news for Canada and the resulting economic chaos that is coming will further erode our ability to buy decent kit, if and when a conservative government happens in 2019-20.

Smoke and mirrors. It is Trump's crude and rather transparent way of showing what a 'deal' maker he truly isn't. The cost reductions have largely come about due to 'flattening out' of manufacturing processes and larger orders meaning the cost is being amortised across more airframes, but if it helps the program, sure Trump can claim all the kudos for his 'business nous' and saving his '$600m' on F-35... If that keeps him happy and F-35's rolling off the production line, so much the better.

L-M gets it's work, the customers get the airframe they want at a price they are happy with and Trump gets to position himself as a 'problem' solver and a deal-maker, but in reality nothing ever changed, except perhaps the timeline over which all of this would have happened anyway.

 

[John Newman]

Here's a good one:

Liberals admit ‘interim’ Super Hornet jets may only fly for 12 years, despite costing billions | National Post

The current Canadian Government is reported as saying that the 'interim' Super Hornets may be limited to a 12-15 year operational life span with the RCAF.

And it so it appears, according to the report, the current RCAF fleet of Classic Hornets might not be replaced until the 2029-2032 time period.

It's all getting very messy, all a bit silly too.

Cost of an interim fleet, cost of extending the Classic Fleet, on and on it goes.

Glad I'm not one of my poor Canuck cousins (who cares about Defence matters), all this crap, long drawn out crap, would be breaking my heart!!!

 

[t68]

Here's a good one:

Liberals admit ‘interim’ Super Hornet jets may only fly for 12 years, despite costing billions | National Post

The current Canadian Government is reported as saying that the 'interim' Super Hornets may be limited to a 12-15 year operational life span with the RCAF.

And it so it appears, according to the report, the current RCAF fleet of Classic Hornets might not be replaced until the 2029-2032 time period.

It's all getting very messy, all a bit silly too.

Cost of an interim fleet, cost of extending the Classic Fleet, on and on it goes.

Glad I'm not one of my poor Canuck cousins (who cares about Defence matters), all this crap, long drawn out crap, would be breaking my heart!!!

That's unbelievable, how can they justify that?

 

[John Newman]

That's unbelievable, how can they justify that?

How can they justify that?

Simple! They are Canadian politicians!

They even make Indian politicians, and procurement practices, seem to be the 'ideal' model to follow.


Just remember next time you want to slag our Aussie pollies, which I feel like doing most of the time, but when it comes to 'defence' we are almost perfect!!

 

[Milne Bay]

That's unbelievable, how can they justify that?

Oh dear - they have backed themselves into a corner.
The firm - "take it to the election" - promise not to purchase the F-35 has left them with almost no options.
Buying a small fleet of F/A-18 E/F's is the best that they can manage without appearing to be complete idiots for dumping the F-35 option.
Sadly, even they realise that in a decade or so these will be near obsolete.
Now here is a conundrum - Canada is a partner in the f-35 program and has quite a bit of a share in the manufacturing process as a result. How to hang on to this while not buying the aircraft?
By rights, this work-share should be taken from them and given to other partners who are buying it. I would guess that the government wants to have its cake and eat it too.
MB

 

[gf0012-aust]

Now here is a conundrum - Canada is a partner in the f-35 program and has quite a bit of a share in the manufacturing process as a result. How to hang on to this while not buying the aircraft?
By rights, this work-share should be taken from them and given to other partners who are buying it. I would guess that the government wants to have its cake and eat it too.
MB

no shortage of dialogue in the JSF forums as to this issue

 

[colay1]

It will get even stickier when that F-35 vs. Advanced Super Hornet study that SECDEF Mattis ordered is completed assuming a contract hasn't been signed yet. I fully expect the F-35 to come out on top putting even more pressure on the CG to justify buying vanilla Super Hornets.

 

[rjtjrt]

........
Now here is a conundrum - Canada is a partner in the f-35 program and has quite a bit of a share in the manufacturing process as a result. How to hang on to this while not buying the aircraft?
By rights, this work-share should be taken from them and given to other partners who are buying it. I would guess that the government wants to have its cake and eat it too.
MB

Surely you that is the current governments way out - order F-35 saying they are forced to by the wicked F-35 other nations who threatened to remove work from innocent Canadian working men and women.

 

[John Fedup]

How can they justify that?

Simple! They are Canadian politicians!

They even make Indian politicians, and procurement practices, seem to be the 'ideal' model to follow.


Just remember next time you want to slag our Aussie pollies, which I feel like doing most of the time, but when it comes to 'defence' we are almost perfect!!

Exactly right! Then again, when you have a nation composed of leftard socialist whiners demanding endless socialist benefits and hyphenated Canadians of convenience, pollies beyond stupid are to be expected.

 

[John Fedup]

Yet another example of junior's disgraceful behaviour. Rather disgusting that the RCAF would not object to this and tell juniors minions to do it themselves.

Laurie Hawn asked to resign RCAF honorary role because of political advocacy against Super Hornet deal | Ottawa Citizen

 

[ngatimozart]

Yet another example of junior's disgraceful behaviour. Rather disgusting that the RCAF would not object to this and tell juniors minions to do it themselves.

Laurie Hawn asked to resign RCAF honorary role because of political advocacy against Super Hornet deal | Ottawa Citizen

Actually the RCAF CAF was correct in his call. It's a constitutional thing with the armed forces not favouring one political party over another. It keeps the military out of the politics of the nation, which is an absolute must in a Westminster style democracy. So bad mouthing the RCAF over this is uncalled for.

We are aware of your dislike of the current govt. It would be wise for you to observe the rule regarding politics, hence in future, it is suggested that you refrain from these political comments.

 

[John Fedup]

This link contains a letter sent by retired RCAF officers to junior suggesting he reconsider the interim Superhornet purchase. There is is also a suggestion that used legacy Hornets should be considered instead if there truly is an interim need. There is no need according to the current RCAF chief so this legacy purchase would also be a wasted effort.

Retired RCAF Chiefs Oppose Super Hornet Purchase - Canadian Defence Review | Canadian Defence Review

 

[t68]

This link contains a letter sent by retired RCAF officers to junior suggesting he reconsider the interim Superhornet purchase. There is is also a suggestion that used legacy Hornets should be considered instead if there truly is an interim need. There is no need according to the current RCAF chief so this legacy purchase would also be a wasted effort.

Retired RCAF Chiefs Oppose Super Hornet Purchase - Canadian Defence Review | Canadian Defence Review

That's an interesting idea using legacy Hornets as an interim, just last year the USMC pulled 20 or so Hornets out of the boneyard. I wonder if there is enough for the RCAF to pull some thru?


Desperate for planes, military turns to the 'boneyard' - CNNPolitics.com

 

[John Fedup]

There is actually no need to pull any legacy Hornets according to the airforce chief. Our current inventory can last until 2025 which is more than enough time to hold a competition, place an order and start receiving jets by the early 2020s despite our cluster $&?$ military procurement system (hopefully).