Is the Super Hornet the best fighter for the Canadian Forces

[John Fedup]

Oh the mind boggles! Why 5 bloody years?

Junior thinks the issue will fade away and nobody will notice. What a moron, anyone with a brain knows his economic plan (the budget will balance itself) was beyond stupid and now we have the proof, in one year his projected 10 billion deficit is know 30 billion. Great performance, the last government had a balanced budget and this frigging mutt has managed to rack up a 30 billion dollar deficit in one fucking year!

The legacy Hornets are barely holding up even now from what I hear. I can only assume its so its beyond his current term in gov and that he doesn't have to deal with the very real possibility that the comp will recommend the F35 right?

The next election is due in 2019. This will be an issue then for sure.

Who is to say if the Boeing SH line will even still be open in 5 years time... it could be nearly a one horse race by then.

The current production rate is 2 SHs per month. Between the recent Kuwait for 40 SHs and on-going USN orders, the line can function into the 2020s even without the Canadian order at this rate. Apparently, both Switzerland and Finland are potential SH candidates so I think the line will still be in action when whatever future Canadian government needs to make the follow-on order in 5 years or whatever. Frankly I hope other vendors sue over this 18 unit order. This represents almost 30% of the fighter replacement project. Every other potential bidder will be at an extreme disadvantage for the follow-on order, which of course, was piss-ant junior's plan all along. Screw national defence, his ego and Mr. "selfie" image is much more important.:gun

Those 18 interim Super Hornets are going to have some work cut out for them while this circus goes on.

Yep, especially considering it will be in the early 2020s before they are FOC and optimistically 2030 if something other than SHs are purchased for the follow-on order. This will be the number one specification that hurts all alternative bids for the follow-on order. This is why vendors must sue over this plan.

 

[Toblerone]

Maybe this interim buy will be for the better in the long term. I believe eventually Canada will get the F-35 and perhaps it will be better to buy the more modern batch later on, after the problems are ironed out. Maybe the price will drop?

But I don't think this is the thinking behind Trudeau's actions. I believe he is against military spending and does not plan to deploy aircraft anywhere. Didn't Canada pull out from the ME last year? Are they currently taking part in any mission?

 

[John Fedup]

Maybe this interim buy will be for the better in the long term. I believe eventually Canada will get the F-35 and perhaps it will be better to buy the more modern batch later on, after the problems are ironed out. Maybe the price will drop?

It will be extremely difficult for other vendors to win the follow-on batch. If Canada were to order an initial batch of F-35s, by the time we started receiving jets, the problems will be worked out.

But I don't think this is the thinking behind Trudeau's actions. I believe he is against military spending and does not plan to deploy aircraft anywhere. Didn't Canada pull out from the ME last year? Are they currently taking part in any mission?

Correct, this purchase decision is all about saving political face. Yes, junior withdrew six CF-18s that were committed to bombing ISIL. We do have support troops and JTF-2 commandos in Iraq at the moment. Canada is also considering a UN request for troops and equipment to Mali, a complete waste of time and resources IMHO. It is junior trying to duplicate his old man's blue helmet commitment mistakes. The apple indeed doesn't fall far from the tree.

 

[King Wally]

Yep, especially considering it will be in the early 2020s before they are FOC and optimistically 2030 if something other than SHs are purchased for the follow-on order. This will be the number one specification that hurts all alternative bids for the follow-on order. This is why vendors must sue over this plan.

I haven't seen the numbers but surely the cost to extend the lives of the legacy hornets out to 2030 will not be cheep.

A betting man would speculate on Jr placing a second "interim" order of Supers once the first batch are delivered with the goal of retiring the legacy hornets before the formal transition to a replacement.

 

[rjtjrt]

Just wondering if the Canadian Government and Public Service regard Yes Minister episodes as a training manual?

This could also be what many Westminster based governments around the world use (as has been said, arguably the least worst system of government).

 

[ngatimozart]

Just wondering if the Canadian Government and Public Service regard Yes Minister episodes as a training manual?

This could also be what many Westminster based governments around the world use (as has been said, arguably the least worst system of government).

Gawd almighty please don't encourage them.

 

[SpudmanWP]

Everyone has got it wrong.. It's not a "buy", but a "lease".

The Official Press Release says:
Canada announces plan to replace fighter jet fleet - Canada News Centre

The Government will enter into discussions with the U.S. Government and Boeing regarding use of these jets for an interim period of time.

That screams lease, not buy.

 

[vonnoobie]

Everyone has got it wrong.. It's not a "buy", but a "lease".

The Official Press Release says:
Canada announces plan to replace fighter jet fleet - Canada News Centre



That screams lease, not buy.

Not necessarily. The Australian SH buy was an interim purchase and they purchased the aircraft outright.

 

[SpudmanWP]

Not necessarily. The Australian SH buy was an interim purchase and they purchased the aircraft outright.

They did not use the same language of "use of these jets for an interim period of time."

Show me one Canadian Buy contract that says anything like that.

 

[Delta204]

^I think you may be reading too much into this one sentence - IMO It was written that way by govt. to give the impression that these aircraft aren't a final solution (which would fly in the face of their promise of an open competition). They are trying to sell this sole source purchase as a something necessary to fulfill an urgent and temporary capability gap - hence the use of the word interim.

To provide some context, several months ago the current govt. presented a chart showing all operational f-18's. About half are at or past their lifetime flying hours and would require major refit to keep in the air. This purchase of 18 SH allows the govt. to retire these approx. 35-40 expired airframes and when combined with the remaining 35-40 legacy hornets should allow the RCAF to fly fast jets till mid 2020's before needing to buy new airframes.

The primary motivation by the govt to do this, as already discussed in this thread, is politics. Before the election, the Liberals promised not to buy the F-35 - once they got to power and were properly briefed by the RCAF ect. they likely realized that this was foolish. Boeing likely capitalized on this opportunity (I would not be surprised if this whole thing was their idea) and presented the govt. with a political out - purchase a limited number of SH on a interim basis and postpose the final selection till after the NEXT election (likely 2019) - allowing the Liberals to keep their promise made during the 2015 election.

By the time the govt. does launch the final open competition the F-35 will be much more mature and have been operational for several years. It will then be much easier for the Liberals to reverse their position once people see how capable the F-35 actually is compared to 4gen+ fighters.

 

[SpudmanWP]

Buying the 18 rather than leasing them will cause an additional cost burden on the combined force.

Canadian planning as usual, clear as mud.

We'll have to wait & see what Boeing & the USG come up with and hopefully get more details.

 

[King Wally]

I can tell you one thing Jr is going to cringe when he gets the total bill for his "interim" solution.

Just look at the new Kuwait buy as an example (given its larger.. but still you get the impression of costs involved).

Kuwait, Qatar Deals Move Forward, Likely Putting Boeing Fighter Jet Production Into the 2020s

The Kuwaiti deal is worth approximately $10.1 billion for 32 E-model Super Hornets, 8 F-models, their associated F414-GE-400 engines and spares, 41 AN/APG active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and a slew of weapon systems, including 20mm guns, 240 guided missile launchers, 45 AN/ALR-67(V)3 radar warning receivers, 12 AN/AAQ-33 SNIPER advanced targeting pods, 48 Link-16 systems, eight conformal fuel tanks among others. The sale also includes associated support and logistics services.

 

[ngatimozart]

I can tell you one thing Jr is going to cringe when he gets the total bill for his "interim" solution.

Just look at the new Kuwait buy as an example (given its larger.. but still you get the impression of costs involved).

That's what's difficult to understand because by the time the Canadians get around to buying their aircraft there will not be that much of a difference between the F35A flyaway cost and that of the F18F. Yet the capability difference between them will be vast. Bang for bucks one would have to go with the F35A.

 

[t68]

To be honest whilst not the ideal situation I think it might actually be a prudent move.18 airframes will fill a Squadron cannibalizing the most fatigued airframes to keep another couple of Squadron going till the election then order F35 2020 to replace the remainder. Hopefully they might do what the ALP did and pre wire for Growler keep options open.

 

[John Newman]

That's what's difficult to understand because by the time the Canadians get around to buying their aircraft there will not be that much of a difference between the F35A flyaway cost and that of the F18F. Yet the capability difference between them will be vast. Bang for bucks one would have to go with the F35A.

This decision by the Canadian Government is nothing more than a purely cynical politically motivated exercise, and I'm not surprised either.

I've been following Canadian defence procurement for many years (yes I must be sick ok??), for years I've watched how the various political parties in Canada have used the Classic Hornet replacement as a 'political' football and points scoring tool, it's just crazy.

The previous Government (or Governments), dragged the chain on making a decision, they were all too scared to make a decision, because the other side would bang them over the head, again, all political points scoring.

The current Government said, before it became the Government, that it wouldn't select the F-35, too 'expensive', then it said it would have an 'open' competition (does that mean include the F-35?), then it said it would look at an 'interim' solution.

They cynic in me tells me that this decision is a real 'yes Minister' decision, on the one hand they have 'appeared' to make a decision, but at the same time 'deferring' the ultimate decision till later in their term, or leave it to the next Government to sort out.

On top of that it is also keeping a foot in both the LM and Boeing camps.

For Boeing it keeps the 'possibility' alive that the interim solution will eventually evolve into the final decision, on the LM side it keeps paying its 'partner' fee so it can get industrial benefits from the F-35 program and leaving open the question that eventually the F-35 will be selected as the 'final' solution.

Am I being too cynical???

What I would like to see is for LM to play 'hard ball' and say to the Canadian Government, if you don't make a decision and make an order by X date, then there will be NO more industrial benefits for Canada, because Canada's decision is now going to make the per airframe cost slightly increased for all the other partner nations, then they will end up with your share as compensation!!!

Yes I know that won't happen, but I sure as hell would like it to happen.

Anyway, in my opinion, a very cynical political exercise by the Canadian Government!!

Cheers,

 

[John Fedup]

I haven't seen the numbers but surely the cost to extend the lives of the legacy hornets out to 2030 will not be cheep.

A betting man would speculate on Jr placing a second "interim" order of Supers once the first batch are delivered with the goal of retiring the legacy hornets before the formal transition to a replacement.

It has been reported that our Hornet fleet is good out to 2025. Starting the F-35 buy in 2017 would easily see FOC by 2025. This interim buy eliminates any chance of other vendors meeting FOC by 2025, assuming a PO is issued in 2020.

 

[John Fedup]

Just wondering if the Canadian Government and Public Service regard Yes Minister episodes as a training manual?

Absolutely, right after reading the arse kissing manual.

 

[John Fedup]

@ John Newman, right on

 

[John Fedup]

^I think you may be reading too much into this one sentence - IMO It was written that way by govt. to give the impression that these aircraft aren't a final solution (which would fly in the face of their promise of an open competition). They are trying to sell this sole source purchase as a something necessary to fulfill an urgent and temporary capability gap - hence the use of the word interim.

I agree and it offers a bit of legal cover although other vendors should challenge this lease or acquisition. This is a delayed killing of a open bid for the fighter replacement promise that junior made several months ago.