War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

Updates.

The SAA advance in Aleppo has stalled.

Meanwhile the Turks and their proxies continue to gain ground in the north.

In Hama province the SAA gained some ground, then lost some of it, but the rebels don't have much chance for a decisive offensive here.

Finally in Latakia, back and forth fighting continues, with a rebel counterattack recapturing some hills.

Коротко по Сирии - Colonel Cassad

An ISIS suicide UAV killed two Peshmerga fighters, and two French SoF operators were injured.

Заминированный БЛР"Халифата" ранил двоих французÑких Ñпецназовцев и убил двух курдов - bmpd

Russia's Yantar deep water research vessel has been hanging out near a strategic cable from Turkey to Northern Cyprus.

ГУГИ за работой: "Янтарь" на подводных кабелÑÑ… у Сирии - bmpd

Highlevel meetings between Russian and Turkish military officials continue, discussing ituation in Syria.

Ðовое поÑвление начальника Генерального Штаба Вооруженных Сил РоÑÑии ГераÑимова в Турции - bmpd

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The push into Aleppo continues, with the SAA making moderate gains. The Tal-Asfar hill that dominates northern Aleppo is in regime hands, and the road into central Aleppo is effectively open.

Meanwhile rebels in two enclaves near Damascus have accepted the government deal, with a minority opting for safe passage to Idlib, without any heavy weapons, but with their families, while the majority are taking the government amnesty. It's important to note that enclaves such as these represent the remains of what used to the moderate opposition. They have relatively little foreign support, are strongly rooted locally, and typically aren't religious extremists. The fact that they're surrendering in exchange for amnesty (this isn't the first such example) illustrates that the will to keep fighting is mostly gone. Realistically, if it weren't for foreign weapons and fighters, the rebels would be done by now.

The SAA also continues to make gains in Eastern Ghouta, where a neighborhood with strong rebel presence is being slowly cut off from the rest of the pocket. Heavy airstrikes continue, as the rebels attempt to counter-attack, to deblockade the pocket. Meanwhile in West Ghouta, the SAA has recaptured a military base.

Finally in Hama, the SAA continues to slowly regain what they lost in September. Rapid gains are unlikely, but the rebels seem spent, after the battle for Aleppo.

Битва за Ðлеппо 13.10.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Хорошие новоÑти из Сирии - Colonel Cassad
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-air-battalion-base-west-ghouta/

A famous FSA commander who held a Damascus suburb against government forces, and chose transport to Idlib over an amnesty, left the FSA to join Jaesh al-Islam and was subsequently assassinated.

Бешеные пÑÑ‹ ÑирийÑкой "революции" - Colonel Cassad

Details from OSINT sources on a chemical attack on Oct 1st.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...orine-attack-kafarzita-hama-october-1st-2016/

The Admiral Kuznetsov is off to Syria. It will be accompanied by an 1155 destroyer, a tanker and a tug. Also off to Syria, soon, is the Petr Velikiy, the last Kirov in service. Currently in the Mediterranean is the lead 11356 frigate, and also two 21631 Small Missile Ships. Quite a show of force, and the second 11356 could potentially join them as well.

«"Ðдмирал Кузнецов" покинул причал» в блоге «Фотофакты» - Сделано у наÑ

Turkey has arrested about 400 officers that have worked in various NATO structures, as part of the continuing post-coup purge.

Ð’ Турции ареÑтовано порÑдка 400 офицеров, работавших в Ñтруктурах ÐÐТО - bmpd

In an interview, Assad has stated that the war in Syria is a direct confrontation between Russia and the US.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àñàä íàçâàë âîéíó â Ñèðèè ïðÿìûì êîíôëèêòîì ìåæäó Ðîññèåé è ÑØÀ

Meanwhile Obama met with advisers about potential military action in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îáàìà íà âñòðå÷å ñ ñîâåòíèêàìè îáñóäèò âîåííûå âàðèàíòû â Ñèðèè

Putin has accused terrorist groups of hitting the humanitarian aid convoy.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí ñîîáùèë, ÷òî óäàð ïî ãóìêîíâîþ îêîëî Àëåïïî íàíåñëè òåððîðèñòû

 

[ngatimozart]

According to Reuters there has been a plot of rebellion inside Mosul by some Daesh fighters. The plotters had been hiding weapons and intended to swap sides when the Iraqi army started is attack to liberate Mosul. Unfortunately for the plotters continued ongoing health Daesh found out and executed 58 of them by drowning. The head plotter was fairly high up the food chain in Daeshs Mosul operation.

 

[gazzzwp]

According to Reuters there has been a plot of rebellion inside Mosul by some Daesh fighters. The plotters had been hiding weapons and intended to swap sides when the Iraqi army started is attack to liberate Mosul. Unfortunately for the plotters continued ongoing health Daesh found out and executed 58 of them by drowning. The head plotter was fairly high up the food chain in Daeshs Mosul operation.

Yet to be confirmed but RT and some other (toilet paper) media are claiming that Obama is to discuss bombing Syrian positions. To be honest I will be amazed if they do not try and wrest the initiative from Russia and Syria. I believe we will not have long to wait to find the answer.

What I do not agree with is the option to arm the opposition with advanced weaponry.

 

[John Fedup]

What I do not agree with is the option to arm the opposition with advanced weaponry.

Nor do all the world''s airlines!

 

[STURM]

Yet to be confirmed but RT and some other (toilet paper) media are claiming that Obama is to discuss bombing Syrian positions.

The last time U.S. airpower operated against the Syrians it didn't end well for the U.S. - an A-6 and A-7 was downed - no doubt this time around the results will be different but what will be gained? If anything U.S. strikes on Syrian positions will make things worst and will certainly not lead to an easing of Syrian pressure on Aleppo. IS will be happy though if the Syrians were hit, as would a few countries.

Doubt if anything will come out of it but Kerry and Lavrov are meeting soon in Switzerland.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...ed-assad-vows-clean-city-161014084949200.html

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The SAA continues to gain ground in Aleppo, pushing from the north, and from the east, near the airport.

Meanwhile the Turks are almost ready to close the pocket around Dabiq.

And finally, in the south, the SAA continues to make gains around Damascus, taking a village in Western Ghouta, and fighting off a rebel counter-attack, after cutting off a pocket of Eastern Ghouta.

Коротко по Сирии 15.10.2016 - Colonel Cassad

Peshmerga improvised armor preparing for the assault on Mosul.

Пешмерга готовитÑÑ ÐœÐ¾Ñул брать - Коллекционер баÑнов

A Syrian BMP-1 modified for launch locally produced Vulcan missiles.

БМП-1 ÑирийÑкой армии Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ¾Ð±Ð¾Ñ€ÑƒÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ реактивную пуÑковую уÑтановку "Вулканов" - Юрий ЛÑмин

The Kuznetsov is headed to the Mediterranean at the head of Russia's first true CVBG, with two 1155 destroyer escorts, and the Petr Velikiy heavy cruiser. It may be meeting up with two Baltic Fleet 20380 corvettes, one or two of the 11356 frigates, or even the 21631 small missile ships in the Mediterranean. It's also very likely that it will be accompanied by a nuclear sub, but which is unclear. They're definitely bringing a tanker and a fleet tug.

"Ðдмирал Кузнецов" двинулÑÑ Ð² Средиземное море - bmpd
Ð’ СÐ*ЗМ вышла ÐºÐ¾Ñ€Ð°Ð±ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ð½Ð¾ÑÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð° - nortwolf_sam
Товар лицом. - Берлога Бронемедведа
Корветы "Стойкий" и "Сообразительный" вышли в Северное море - bmpd

EDIT: UN personnel have arrived in Aleppo, to facilitate the exit of some of the armed groups in the city.

https://ria.ru/syria/20161015/1479306502.html

 

[colay1]

How is it that cellular service is available in Mosul? Is ISIS allowing this for communicating with it's own forces?

 

[PO2GRV]

Russian, Syrian Forces Halt Airstrikes On Aleppo | Huffington Post
A humanitarian pause is in effect in Aleppo ahead of a planned 8 hour evacuation on Thursday. Well wonder how many takes advantage. I wonder what kind of screening goes on with those fleeing to prevent combatants escaping

Iraqi Forces Take Back 20 Villages From ISIS | Huffington Post
20 villages secured in first 24hrs of Mosul offensive. What strikes me most is the forces involved are Iraqi and Peshmerga -- a not subtle sign to tge rest of the world that US' stance on Kurds (Iraqi atleast) hasnt changed yet. Well soon see if were going to sell them down the river

 

[Toblerone]

What do you mean, prevent combatants escaping? From what I understand, there is a standing option to surrender and choose whether to be transported to another rebel held area or stay in a government-held area and be pardoned.

Or are these options available after a deal and not on a case by case basis?

 

[ngatimozart]

The Iraqi advance on Mosul has slowed after a day of fighting. The Iraqi Army claims this is at the Peshmerga request because they haven't achieved all of their targets. However the Peshmerga state that they have achieved their targets and the halt was on Iraqi Army orders.

The Russians have completed their IADS in Syria.

Deployment of mobile and interchangeable S-400 and S-300 missile batteries, along with other short-range systems, now gives Russia the ability to shoot down planes and cruise missiles over at least 250 miles in all directions from western Syria, covering virtually all of that country as well as significant portions of Turkey, Israel, Jordan and the eastern Mediterranean.

This will create issues for any US attempt to strike SAA targets if it is directed to by the White House.

 

[STURM]

The Iraqi government has publicly complained about the presence of Turk troops on Iraqi soil to the north east of Mosul. Turkey has countered this saying that it was Iraq that requested the presence of Turk troops on its soil.

As more and more ground is taken from IS; it is hoped that previous incidents of Sunni residents being mistreated by Shia militias will not reoccur. In newly liberated areas, reports of Sunnis being mistreated by Shia militias who suspect them of being IS collaborators and spies, has benefited IS.

[Iraq’s ‘Ramshackle’ Mosul Offensive May See Isis Defeated But It Will Expose Deep Divisions Between The Forces Involved]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-us-coalition-turkey-shia-sunni-a7366416.html

 

[Feanor]

What do you mean, prevent combatants escaping? From what I understand, there is a standing option to surrender and choose whether to be transported to another rebel held area or stay in a government-held area and be pardoned.

Or are these options available after a deal and not on a case by case basis?

There's a standing offer but I think they would have to make it clear that such is their intention. Random insurgents trying to fight their way out of the city would not just be allowed to leave. Also, at least previously, the deal included the clause that the rebels can't bring any heavy weapons.

 

[Feanor]

The large Russian VMF taskforce in decades is assembling in the Mediterranean. It that two of the 21631 small missile ships are headed to the Baltic, while two 20380 corvettes are going to the Mediterranean for eventual inclusion in the Black Sea Fleet. The first 11356 frigate is in the Mediterranean right now, the second one will be joining it from the Baltic. Meanwhile the Smolensk 949A nuke sub tested it's Granit AShM against coastal targets in the Russian Arctic, confirming that it has land-attack capabilities. It's entirely possible that the type will be joining the carrier group in the Mediterranean. If not, it is almost certain that some other nuke sub is with them now. This gives us a maximum force of 1 heavy cruiser, 1 aircraft carrier, two ASW destroyers, 2 frigates, 2 corvettes, and a sub.

 

[Ranger25]

The Iraqi advance on Mosul has slowed after a day of fighting. The Iraqi Army claims this is at the Peshmerga request because they haven't achieved all of their targets. However the Peshmerga state that they have achieved their targets and the halt was on Iraqi Army orders.

The Russians have completed their IADS in Syria.

This will create issues for any US attempt to strike SAA targets if it is directed to by the White House.

I don't believe the US has attempted to Strike SAA targets(or plans to)

The Russian IADS is a Vaunted system in paper yet fully unproven.

Western Air Forces are well practiced at attacking similar IADS with both TLAMS as well as air packages.

That said, I certainly don't believe there is/should be any plan to conduct operations V the Russian systems. No need.

 

[Toblerone]

https://southfront.org/members-of-f...ansported-from-damascus-to-idlib-photo-video/

Lots of photos and videos of hundreds of rebels and their families evacuated to Idlib after a deal with the regime. Another Damascus pocket falls. Are these deals reported in the western mainstream media?

I wonder what these people will do in Idlib, where/how they will live and feed themselves. Maybe they will sell their guns for a ticket to Turkey? They can lose any sort of identification they have and reinvent themselves as innocent civilians running from the horrors of war.

 

[John Fedup]

I wonder what these people will do in Idlib, where/how they will live and feed themselves. Maybe they will sell their guns for a ticket to Turkey? They can lose any sort of identification they have and reinvent themselves as innocent civilians running from the horrors of war.

They can come to Canada as the vetting process is virtually non-existent and our dipshit PM junior seems to think he has unlimited funds to bankroll these "refuges":mad2

 

[Ranger25]

They can come to Canada as the vetting process is virtually non-existent and our dipshit PM junior seems to think he has unlimited funds to bankroll these "refuges":mad2

Same can be said for the US

 

[2007yellow430]

Same can be said for the US

That is incorrect. We have a rigorous vetting process.

Here is a brief analysis of our process:

4 Things To Know About The Vetting Process For Syrian Refugees : NPR

Art

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Some footage from the unfolding battle for Mosul.

Битва за МоÑул. Ðачало - Colonel Cassad

70 Iraqi soldiers died due to a VBIED near Mosul.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ ñîîáùèëè î ãèáåëè 70 èðàêñêèõ âîåííûõ â ðåçóëüòàòå àòàêè ñìåðòíèêà ïîä Ìîñóëîì

Russia is making a humanitarian pause in Aleppo for 8 hours, to allow civilians and fighters to leave, if they so choose. So far a small group of fighters from Ashrar Ash Sham has decided to take the offer. It appears that this will be the last opportunity for the rebel fighters to leave. Meanwhile the US, France, and Britain, blocked the Russian proposed Security Council, that encouraged rebels and civilians to leave Aleppo during the humanitarian pause.

There was an interesting development near Azaz. The FSA demanded that the Kurds withdraw from Tel Rifaat but the Kurds refused, and a brief attempt to attack the Kurds ended badly for them. Meanwhile the Kurds have gained some ground in the direction of al-Bab.

Meanwhile the rebels are continuing to lose ground in Hama province.

And the rebel stronghold in Western Ghouta seems to be shrinking rapidly.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ è Ñèðèÿ ïðåêðàòèëè áîìáàðäèðîâêó Àëåïïî äëÿ ââåäåíèÿ ãóìàíèòàðíîé ïàóçû
Ðлеппо будет зачищен - Colonel Cassad
Коротко по Сирии - Colonel Cassad
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/446274
Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии. 19.10.2016 - Colonel Cassad

The EU may deem Russian airstrikes in Aleppo to be war crimes.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Åâðîñîþç äîïóñòèë ïðèçíàíèå äåéñòâèé Ðîññèè â Àëåïïî âîåííûìè ïðåñòóïëåíèÿìè

Additional Iraqi Shiite militias are deploying to Syria.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/446218

Some materials on Russian use of incendiary munitions.

https://citeam.org/new-evidence-of-russian-incendiary-bomb-use-in-syria/