War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

Update.

Recovering from the ISIS counter-attack, Turkey and their proxies are pushing southward to encircle al-Bab. They've regained lost ground, and made significant gains. ISIS fortifies al-Bab in expectation of the Turkish push.

Meanwhile Assad's forces continue to slowly gain buildings and blocks in Aleppo while continuing to offer rebels safe passage out if they want to leave.

Битва за Ðлеппо. 06.10.2016 - Colonel Cassad

Russia has called the UN Security council together on the subject of Aleppo. It seems the Syrian special envoy to the UN is offering safe passage to al-Nusra, out of Aleppo.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñîâåò Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ ïî èíèöèàòèâå Ðîññèè ïðîâåäåò âñòðå÷ó ïî ñèòóàöèè â Àëåïïî

Some good shots, including closeups, of Russian vessels headed to Syria. Note the onboard soldiers. Some are undoubtedly a security element but some may be part of the rotation of Russian forces in Syria.

"СирийÑкий ÑкÑпреÑÑ" - Colonel Cassad

Reports of a Turkish F-16 being downed over Iraq. Not confirmed so far.

Ð’ Ираке Ñбит турецкий F-16 - Colonel Cassad

A police station in Istanbul was hit by an explosion. Given that the target was law enforcement, it's likely this was the RPK. ISIS tends to strike civilian targets. Either way it underlines that the security situation inside Turkey remains bad, even as Turkey gets further involved in the Syrian war.

Взрыв в Стамбуле - Colonel Cassad

 

[gazzzwp]

Germany is aspiring to be the EU power. And Merkel specifically, as well as Germany more broadly, is in a political confrontation with Russia. It makes sense that when they can no longer push for more sanctions over Ukraine (in fact they may have problems preserving the current level of sanctions) they have to change the focus to something else. But it's easier to accuse then it is to prove guilt.

And another thing to think about. Turkey has been using humanitarian aid convoys to deliver weapons for some time. They even jailed some of their own journalists for investigating it. Could this convoy have been carrying things other then aid? Again, it seems unlikely, to me at least, that Russia would target a perfectly innocent aid convoy for no reason. It doesn't send a message, like bombing the US-backed rebel group did. It doesn't accomplish any military objectives. It creates considerable negative fallout. And to top it off, it costs resources to do it.



The US is far from neutered. However the US is not playing first fiddle, like it has in the recent past in other wars. And the US has a very messy policy, with no clear, realistic, and tangible objectives in mind. This is the biggest problem. Until the US can come up with some realistic strategic goals (not just the proverbial "democracy and prosperity for all") for the near to medium term, the US will continue to suffer when dealing with players who do have them.



This is not news. Iraqi militias were airlifted to Syria by Russia, last year, to participate in iirc the defense of Damascus. They've since been provided with strategic and operational airlift by Russia to various fronts within Syria.

As for Iraq, the US lost a lot of ground when they held back those F-16s, as ISIS was pushing on Baghdad, and it took an emergency buy of Su-25s from Russia, and transfers from Iran, to give the Iraqis some decent fixed-wing CAS. Ever since then Russia has made gains in Iraq in proportion to its willingness to provide modern gear and equipment. There is even a coordination center in Baghdad with Russian and Iranian personnel, to work with the Iraqis on a combined war effort of sorts. That having been said, Iraq is a very long way from being a Russian client state. Russia has some interests there in the form of oil holdings, weapon sales, the strategic air route to Syria, and a joint effort in the war. However they have relatively little leverage to bring to bear on Iraq. It seems to me that Iraq is working with Russia because it's advantageous to the Iraqis.

Some very helpful insight. Many thanks

 

[Feanor]

Some more details. Iranian military presence in Syria, covered in a few simple maps.

ИранÑкое военное приÑутÑтвие - Colonel Cassad

A large but non-specific photoset from Syria.

Фотографии гражданÑкой войны в Сирии - ИдеÐльный развлекательный блог (фото, gif, Ñтатьи, ню)

 

[Toblerone]

I just read this article, thought I would leave it here so when I whine about US actions in the Middle East it's not just unfounded allegations.

Obama DOJ drops charges against alleged broker of Libyan weapons - POLITICO

The article also references this older one from 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/06/w...s-approval-fell-into-islamist-hands.html?_r=2

If the reporting is accurate, US-supplied weapons (through Qatar) fell in the hands of jihadis in Libya. Now it has become an embarrassment and must be swept under the rug to protect Hillary's chances in the elections and Obama's legacy.

 

[John Fedup]

Not sure how Obama's domestic legacy will fare but his international legacy is beyond salvage. Clinton would be unelectable against any Republican opponent except the one running.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

In Aleppo, the SAA continues to gain ground, making significant gains in the north and minor gains in the south. The tempo of the push is impressive, considering the complex urban environment and the large group of rebel fighters inside.

Meanwhile in the north, Turkey and their proxies got hit by another ISIS counter-attack, pushing them back, and preventing them from surrounding al-Bab completely.

Finally the rebels in Hama have not only been halted, but the SAA is on a counter-offensive. It remains to be seen whether they can succeed without having to pull resources from their assault of Aleppo.

There are also reports of a major fight between two rebel groups in Idlib province, even as Russia continues to strike rebel supply lines and troop movements in that area. This infighting may be part of the reason for the SAA success in recent days.

Штурм Ðлеппо. 08.10.2016 - Colonel Cassad
КонтрнаÑтупление в Хаме - Colonel Cassad
Разгул Ñвободы и демократии в Идлибе - Colonel Cassad

A Russian Mi-8 took MANPADS fire, but avoided it, in Syria. No details on whether the new Vitebsk anti-MANPADS system was used. Allegedly it was carrying humanitarian aid.

СирийÑкие боевики обÑтрелÑли из ПЗРК Ми-8 ВКС РФ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè îáñòðåëÿëè ðîññèéñêèé âåðòîëåò, äîñòàâëÿâøèé ãóìàíèòàðíóþ ïîìîùü

Russia blocked a French resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Aleppo.

Ð¡Ñ‚Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ð½Ñцена - Colonel Cassad

Russian Duma ratified the permanent Russian base at Hmeimeem agreement. Meanwhile al-Nusra has refused to leave Aleppo, and has in the recent past prevented civilians from leaving.

Also a third Russian small missile ship is headed to the Mediterranean, this one an older Soviet model, not carrying any LACMs.

Безв¼ÐµÐ·Ð´Ð½Ð¾ - Colonel Cassad

The Admiral Kuznetsov is being loaded up for it's Syrian trip.

Ðктивные погрузочные работы на Ñ‚Ñжелом авианеÑущем крейÑере "Ðдмирал Кузнецов" - bmpd

 

[gazzzwp]

An excellent article and highly recommended:

US-Middle East: Plan B stands for bankruptcy - Al Jazeera English

It details where Obama has gone wrong in Syria and the ME in general. Starting with Libya and what Obama feels was his greatest mistake ever, to the procrastination over Syria that led to the emboldening of adversaries and now (the article considers) that a real military intervention is far too late as other forces are too well dug in. It mentions Russia's objective to humiliate the US. The allies of the US have lost faith.

Overall quite a depressing read and it is clear that the next president will have a mountain to climb to reassert US influence into world problems generally.

 

[PO2GRV]

lol ofcoyrse AJE would publish that article. Think of the audience, the Sunni Gangs worst fear is thr US disengaging from the region or worse (for them) shifting its interests in line with the Shia Gang. Theyre trying to influence hawks in the US by framing the foreign policy events of the past 5 years as failures and downnright embarassing when the opposite conclusion must be drawn : kicking down the house in Libya aand handing the reins to a rabble was bad and yet the Sunni gang wants the same done in Syria

Why?

Because it suits *their* interests not the US'

 

[gazzzwp]

lol ofcoyrse AJE would publish that article. Think of the audience, the Sunni Gangs worst fear is thr US disengaging from the region or worse (for them) shifting its interests in line with the Shia Gang. Theyre trying to influence hawks in the US by framing the foreign policy events of the past 5 years as failures and downnright embarassing when the opposite conclusion must be drawn : kicking down the house in Libya aand handing the reins to a rabble was bad and yet the Sunni gang wants the same done in Syria

Why?

Because it suits *their* interests not the US'

There may be ulterior motives for writing the article, but I have to say as a neutral observer it is totally true. By exploiting the vaccuum caused partly by Obama's nature and the general election Russia has well and truly locked the US out and rubbed their noses in it to boot.

It need not have happened had they have been more decisive years ago and had a clear policy.

The most concerning aspect of all is how the allies think of them now. Where for example is Turkey in all of this? Whether it was Russia's clever manipulation or not, the relationship between the US and one of it's NATO members is very unclear. Putin visits Turkey again soon apparently.

 

[STURM]

I have no arguments with the article. Sure the writer has an ulterior motive or an agenda but so do most people. The fact remains that the U.S.'s policy over Syria was not only flawed from the start but has also failed to achieve any of its objectives. The whole idea of seeing off Assad before IS was defeated and before there was a sizeable and reliable ''moderate'' rebel group willing to take over was gaga land thinking. It also says a lot that despite initially trying to have as little to do as possible with Russia; the U.S. was forced to accept that no settlement is possible without Russian participation.

I've said this before and I'll say it again : I think it's preposterous that after selling so much arms to countries like Saudi [IS's ideology of course comes from the Saudi Wahhabism] and Qatar; as well as guaranteeing their security in the event of an external threat; these countries are doing next to nothing to help roll back IS and instead are focusing on Yemen. Yet when arms transfer to the countries are announced they're accompanied with the standard script ''this sale will contribute to regional stability'', etc, etc. How the Gulf States have contributed to regional security is a major mystery. They off course want Assad gone not because of concern over the fate of ordinary Syrians but because doing away with Assad weakens Iran. Weakening Iran and isolating it is of course in line with the ''Cold War'' being fought between the Sunni Gulf States and Iran. The biggest irony is that it's Iran [the same Iran who sponsors terrorism and wanted to acquire nukes to threaten the free world] who has done a lot to help roll back IS; both in Syria and in Iraq. Instead of showing solidarity with their fellow Iraqi Arabs [irrespective of the fact that Iraq is led by a Shia government]; the Gulf States have not done anything to help defeat IS in Iraq.

Like the Syrian ''moderates'' [the same ones the U.S. at one time was hoping would be able to defeat Assad but whom it turned out were not so numerous or ''moderate'' as portrayed]; the leaders of the Gulf States are praying that the next U.S. President takes a harder line against Assad. Now if only the U.S. and Russia could put aside their differences; IS would be defeated. IS after all has survived so long because its enemies remain divided.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...ion-protected-terrorists-161009142453226.html

US and EU sanctions are ruining ordinary Syrians' lives, yet Bashar al-Assad hangs on to power | The Independent

 

[2007yellow430]

There may be ulterior motives for writing the article, but I have to say as a neutral observer it is totally true. By exploiting the vaccuum caused partly by Obama's nature and the general election Russia has well and truly locked the US out and rubbed their noses in it to boot.

It need not have happened had they have been more decisive years ago and had a clear policy.

The most concerning aspect of all is how the allies think of them now. Where for example is Turkey in all of this? Whether it was Russia's clever manipulation or not, the relationship between the US and one of it's NATO members
From a is very unclear. Putin visits Turkey again soon apparently.

From all that I have read, it was the destabilization of Iraq, and the subsequent destabilization of Libya that led to this. The past two administrations have a piece of this debacle. American foreign policy needs to be fixed. The real question, at least to me, is what direction and how to accomplish that.

Art

 

[STURM]

The civil war in Iraq that saw thousands and thousands killed and displaced; strengthened Al Qaeda and led to the rise of IS. As things got worse in Syria, officials in Iraq saying that the situation in Syria would spill over into Iraq. Hardly anybody listened and when IS captured a large part of the country; it came as a major surprise to the world but not to many Iraqis.

 

[gazzzwp]

Predictably Russia and Turkey now forming closer military ties. Good for the region I suppose but another blow to US policy and influence in the region:

https://www.rt.com/news/362285-putin-erdogan-turkey-meeting/

Interesting how humanitarian aid (Aleppo) was on the agenda in the meeting. Hmm.

 

[Toblerone]

I think Erdogan started abandoning the hope that his Al Nusra allies and turkmen tribes would give him an ace card in the future Syria at about the time the SAA and the kurds jointly cut off the Azaz corridor. Then he was having ISIS terror attacks wrecking his tourism and internal stability, then the su-24 shootdown and Putin intimidating him, then the USA working with the kurds while they were gaining a LOT of ground, then the coup happened by officers that were in frequent contact with the americans :laugh

Invading ISIS-held territory away from Assad/russian interests was the smartest decision after many bad ones. The first priority is to prevent a kurdish state and Assad can guarantee that.

Meanwhile, PKK bombing attacks against mostly uniformed targets have reached a crescendo.

 

[ngatimozart]

I think Erdogan started abandoning the hope that his Al Nusra allies and turkmen tribes would give him an ace card in the future Syria at about the time the SAA and the kurds jointly cut off the Azaz corridor. Then he was having ISIS terror attacks wrecking his tourism and internal stability, then the su-24 shootdown and Putin intimidating him, then the USA working with the kurds while they were gaining a LOT of ground, then the coup happened by officers that were in frequent contact with the americans :laugh

Invading ISIS-held territory away from Assad/russian interests was the smartest decision after many bad ones. The first priority is to prevent a kurdish state and Assad can guarantee that.

Meanwhile, PKK bombing attacks against mostly uniformed targets have reached a crescendo.

Erdogan apparently has done a trade deal with Putin, but officially it can't be put into effect because of sanctions against Russia. Regarding the Kurds, my sympathy and support is with the Kurds, not the Turks.

 

[Feanor]

Erdogan apparently has done a trade deal with Putin, but officially it can't be put into effect because of sanctions against Russia. Regarding the Kurds, my sympathy and support is with the Kurds, not the Turks.

I was under the impression that Turkey hadn't joined in the EU sanctions. They even traded with Crimea, though they kept that out of the media. So the trade deal is all above board. The trade restrictions that existed were imposed by Russia. Sanctions passed in response to shooting down that Su-24M last year. The whole point of Turkey making nice was to see those sanctions lifted, as well as resolve some of their issues over the fate of Syria.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Regime forces continue pushing into Aleppo, making small gains, but resistance remains stiff. There's a dominant hill in rebel hands, and until it falls, regime advance in a large section of the city is stalled.

Meanwhile in Hama the SAA counter-offensive continues, while the rebels fight among themselves.

And in the north, Turkey is once again gaining ground against ISIS. At this point it looks like al-Bab will be surrounded quite soon. Days.

Коротко по Сирии - Colonel Cassad

The assault on the ISIS stronghold in Libya, in Sirte, is near it's end. ISIS is pushed into a small area, ~600 buildings. This might be the end of ISIS in Libya, at least for now.

Штурм Сирта. 4 меÑÑца ÑпуÑÑ‚Ñ - Colonel Cassad

Some video from the continuing assault on Aleppo.

Штурм Ðлеппо. ÐŸÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ - Colonel Cassad

RVV-AE missiles spotted on Syrian MiG-29SMs. These are Russia's most modern missiles, and pose a credible threat to 4th gen adversaries. It's very likely that Syria only recently received them.

Ðа ÑирийÑких МиГ-29 замечены ракеты РВВ-ÐЕ - bmpd

Two suicide bombers blew themselves up in Turkey, but killed nobody. Apparently their house was surrounded as part of a police operation.

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Putin visited Turkey, signing the Turkish Stream deal for two strings of pipes, and lifting the ban on Turkish fruit imports. Note these aren't all the sanctions Russia passed against them, but it's an important piece. With the ban on certain food imports from western Europe, Turkey had a significant market share when Russia passed those sanctions last year. Interesting note, if this pipeline is up and running on schedule, Russia not only gets to ditch Ukrainian transit entirely, but has transit volume to spare, indicating that they may be seeking to expand to some of the Balkan markets. Of course this still leaves Italy out of the deal.

Despite continuing hysterics surrounding the siege of Aleppo, it's starting to look like the outcome can be seen. A Turkish protectorate splitting two Kurdish regions, while the regime finishes off most of the non-ISIS rebels. Assad gets Aleppo, the Kurds remain weak and divided geographically, and Turkey gets their buffer zone, but on somewhat different terms.

Турецкие дела - Colonel Cassad
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/444412

 

[STURM]

Regarding the Kurds, my sympathy and support is with the Kurds, not the Turks.

They've been used and played out by numerous countries over the decades. I wonder how things will eventually turn out for them this time around.

Why did President Erdogan restart the battle with the Kurdish PKK? | The Independent

 

[ngatimozart]

I was under the impression that Turkey hadn't joined in the EU sanctions. They even traded with Crimea, though they kept that out of the media. So the trade deal is all above board. The trade restrictions that existed were imposed by Russia. Sanctions passed in response to shooting down that Su-24M last year. The whole point of Turkey making nice was to see those sanctions lifted, as well as resolve some of their issues over the fate of Syria.

That maybe the case, however if Erdogan wants to join the EU then he'll have to abide by the sanctions and all the other EU rules. Trouble is Erdogan would want to pick and choose which EU rules that he would abide by and to ignore.

Turkey and Russia signed a deal for the construction of a major undersea gas pipeline which will bypass the Ukraine. Putin has also lifted import restrictions on some Turkish foodstuffs.

 

[Feanor]

That maybe the case, however if Erdogan wants to join the EU then he'll have to abide by the sanctions and all the other EU rules. Trouble is Erdogan would want to pick and choose which EU rules that he would abide by and to ignore.

Turkey and Russia signed a deal for the construction of a major undersea gas pipeline which will bypass the Ukraine. Putin has also lifted import restrictions on some Turkish foodstuffs.

I don't think there's any real desire to join the EU left. Turkey has basically given up on that as a pipe dream. Their recent relationship with the EU can be described as troubled, over the migrants issue, and over their actions in the Middle East.

As for abiding by the sanctions, there are current EU states that don't do that.