South China Sea thoughts?

[gazzzwp]

It seems to me in relation to the SCS that we are seeing being played out an example of game theory.

Everyone but China wants at the very least to preserve the status quo (even if some of the SCS countries might want to go further and be able to exploit fully their perceived EEZ). China is determined to demolish it and the ILOS to boot.

The practical problem is that, while China is playing it well, there is only one other player who can play it with an equal hand; and thus meaningfully contribute to the game’s result. And they aren’t playing meaningfully notwithstanding their recent overflights.

Smaller countries around the SCS have an inherently weak hand; able to produce only very limited worrying uncertainties for China and incredibly vulnerable economically, militarily and in cyber space.

My own view is that the Philippines played to its strength by referring the matter to international adjudication. Maybe they have to duck for cover now, but they’ve considerably weakened China’s international position; especially since so many left leaning western commentators are too inclined to describe any defence of the ILOS in the SCS in ignorant US imperialistic terms.
Australia too has a somewhat weak hand. It would be nice to think China is dependent on us for raw materials (as some commentators have suggested) but very much doubt it. They can go elsewhere. We on the other hand are exposed to any trade sanction by them and I don’t doubt could be hurt by a “plausibly deniable” or at least unprovable cyber attack. Militarily we could achieve little in the SCS; and indeed could not even respond in a satisfactory manner to an attack on a FON exercise there.

We’ve just had the silly position where, a week after an organ of the Chinese Government specifically threatened to shoot down our planes and do injury to us, the Government is severely criticised for knocking back handing over to complete Chinese control vital infrastructure on security grounds. The Government is forced to “pretend” it had nothing to do with the bidder being Chinese and the commentariet is all too willing to cry “racist”, encouraging the Chinese themselves to make the same claim. And yet, no-one is willing to come out and say “you ignorant fools, you must be kidding”.

At the very least we need a Barnaby Joyce type minister who’s willing to make the specific link, even if (like the Chinese use all the time) it’s someone who can be “plausibly disclaimed”.

Really, only the US can play the game on equal terms; able to inflict the unstated and ill-defined threat (economic, military or otherwise) of as much harm to them as they can do to the US and thus keep the situation in stasis.

All this time the US seems to be in its own state of Executive blindness. Indeed, with Russia, China and North Korea all dialling up their rogueness quotient, I was appalled to read yesterday the President is thinking of disclaiming a US first strike ability; exactly the opposite to what game theory requires at exactly the wrong time (horrible though the possibility of nuclear exchange is, such a step probably increases its eventual likelihood).

I’ve asked before whether there is some recognised answer to how often FON’s should be conducted to be effective. My own answer has formed into “frequently”, starting now. If somebody pulls a trigger for an alleged breech of sovereignty, it should be such a clear breech of long established protocols that no defence of misunderstanding can be raised.

And if (perish the thought) I was US president, I think by now I would have had a long talk with the captains of industry warning them that they needed to think through what happens if the US needs to impose technology transfer bans as some sort of soft power application and of the danger of them losing access to their Chinese supply chains altogeather.

All of which is probably the reason I should stay out of politics

A nice summation of the situation. What if the US were to co-operate with one of it's allies in the region, copy China's strategy and militarise a reef? I just wonder what the overall effect would be?

Edit to add:

You make a very good point about Russia, China and N Korea generally. They all seem to have openly stated that they are more than prepared to engage the US militarily and take their chances. If anyone of these nations becomes more assertive to the point that world peace is at threat then at some point they will have to be engaged.

The US should now be engaging it's allies more solemnly, particularly those involved in the SCS conflict. Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, should all be heavily considering what role they can play to support the US should a conflict occur. The situation really is that serious. If I were the US I would also engage NATO in discussion on the issue.

If they all agree that a conflict is too appalling to contemplate then they need to bite the bullet and consider serious economic sanctions. Either way it calls for action not procrastination.

The reason I say this is that the region is running out of time where N Korea is concerned. Quite likely they will have the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead to target the W coast USA in 2017.

 

[Boatteacher]

A nice summation of the situation. What if the US were to co-operate with one of it's allies in the region, copy China's strategy and militarise a reef? I just wonder what the overall effect would be?

.

Personally I don't see the benefit of the US doing that.

It plays to the imperialist line and contradicts their main message which is that these are international waters. Plus I'm not sure it really adds anything to the US's tactical situation; a static, easily attacked base.

It would probably just prompt China to go at island building more bullishly.

The recurring message has to be these are public seas; sort out your EEC claims among yourselves, using the international forums set up for that, and without resorting to military action.

As someone has already pointed out, the next real test could come if China builds a base just off the Philippine coast near the old US base.

I would hope the US already has a plan nutted out for that one.

 

[Waylander]

Interesting article in RT this morning about the US flying a Stealth Bomber (B-2 Spririt) , B-52 and B-1 into the SCS.

https://www.rt.com/usa/356338-strategic-bombers-guam-power/

It will be interesting to see if any other media reports this later in the day. Some comments made in the blog below refer to how many B-52's were shot down by the Vietnamese and so with modern Chinese SAMS they should these days be an easy target which is a fair point.

Except of course that first strike weaponry will I would image be stealth fighters to remove SAM batteries from the contested air space. It does make me wonder what part B-52's could possibly play against a well armed adversary?

Anyway not to digress, I have no information yet on how far they flew into the SCS or what repsonse the PLA made if any.

B-52s (just as B-1s) won't come in carpet bombing the islands but use ALCMs and JASSMs from a distance to hammer chinese installations as well as adding considerable anti-ship capabilities (Harpoon) to the theater. Once the air threat is neutralized they may eventually bomb the remaining targets with JDAMs.

These days even old bombers like the B-52 or Bear are a serious threat as they are difficult to intercept before they can launch their modern cruise missiles. This is even more true for the more survivable B-1 and Tu-160.

 

[Ranger25]

Personally I don't see the benefit of the US doing that.

It plays to the imperialist line and contradicts their main message which is that these are international waters. Plus I'm not sure it really adds anything to the US's tactical situation; a static, easily attacked base.

It would probably just prompt China to go at island building more bullishly.

The recurring message has to be these are public seas; sort out your EEC claims among yourselves, using the international forums set up for that, and without resorting to military action.

As someone has already pointed out, the next real test could come if China builds a base just off the Philippine coast near the old US base.

I would hope the US already has a plan nutted out for that one.

Agreed, IMO no reason to do so.

With all the speculation, I don't see any kinetics for some time in the SCS. Things continue to ramp up. I see any initial kinetic dispute to be Naval oriented. Would be interesting to see how a joint force of the USN and JSD Navy would operate V the PLAN. I don't see good outcomes for the PLA

 

[weaponwh]

Yes the ones at the top do have a clear mind, a clear mind bent on pure unmitigated robbery in the SCS against all international law. The PRC has clearly abrogated international agreements that it has signed, such as UCLOS. Nothing that it does, especially in this context, is done without the approval of the Party and Leadership in particular.

The case was about whether those reef/island are consider Islands and has its own EEZ, not about who has the control over it(as UNCLOS or international case typically don't deal with ongoing dispute). This affect pretty much everyone in the region. Looking at the outcome of the various arbitrary case over the past few decades, about 2/3 were ignored by various countries, so expect China or Vietnam or Taiwan to follow through is pointless. Taiwan ignore the outcome and send ships to its own Taiping island after the result of the case. Currently both China/Phillippine seem want to talk, so lets wait and see what happen afterwards.

 

[weaponwh]

just because war is illogical doesn't mean that its avoidable - everything china is doing is inexorably moving towards confrontation - she attempted to paint the US as the primary vehicle for regional discontent - and yet all she has done is encourage virtually every country in a territorial dispute with china to seek US assistance, be it soft or hard assistance




oh come on. china coming to RIMPAC was a western (US with partner discussions) invitation and initiative - china has attended in the past as an uninvited guest (UDT)

the hot line was something that the US has pushed for the last 5 years as china was ignoring accepted rules of the road and was making no attempt to defuse incidents at sea - unlike the soviets who knew that defusing local events was critical to avoid escalation

china has done ZERO to mitigate escalation - buidling up reefs to gain territory is illegal - chinas done it. she declared no military installations on those reefs less than 2 years ago - and yet now we see images of long range interceptors, HAS, deep draught vessel facilities, and the clear and obvious militarisation of those reefs

well you said it your self, if China don't want to mitigate escalation, it doesn't have to join RIMPAC or work with US on ship encounter rule/hotline, right? The purpose of these is to lower potential mistake that could lead to conflict, so both US/China need work together to lower the risk of missfire. As for promise of non militarizing ScS, I'm pretty sure they meant Sparatly not paracel, but I'm sure they will eventually militarized Sparatly consider most disputed party in the region already has military equipment on those island before, with exception of Phillippine. Of course other dispute party will seek US assistance, consider they are weaker player in the dispute. However, it doesn't meant there aren't any diplomatic solution, recent phillippine/china behavior shows that as well as top official from both Vietnam/china travel to each others country. The reality is only Vietnam/Phillippine has higher tension with China in ScS, and clearly China is using its soft power try to woo these two back. Vietnam is the only real disputed party that could lead to war with China, since they share dispute in Paracel and Sparatly. The event happen for the past few years is far from an open conflict between US/China.

 

[ngatimozart]

The case was about whether those reef/island are consider Islands and has its own EEZ, not about who has the control over it(as UNCLOS or international case typically don't deal with ongoing dispute). This affect pretty much everyone in the region. Looking at the outcome of the various arbitrary case over the past few decades, about 2/3 were ignored by various countries, so expect China or Vietnam or Taiwan to follow through is pointless. Taiwan ignore the outcome and send ships to its own Taiping island after the result of the case. Currently both China/Phillippine seem want to talk, so lets wait and see what happen afterwards.

Rubbish, the case was about Chinas unilateral illegal expropriation of all the waters and seabed within the unrecognised so-called Nine Dashed Line.

as UNCLOS or international case typically don't deal with ongoing dispute

What the f***??? This is exactly what it is. You are showing a pattern of ignoring all the evidence that is contrary to current PRC political thought. So that makes me curious about you and your motivations for posting on this topic.

 

[Boatteacher]

Agreed, IMO no reason to do so.

With all the speculation, I don't see any kinetics for some time in the SCS. Things continue to ramp up. I see any initial kinetic dispute to be Naval oriented.

A couple of points which are simply agreeing with you.

I always thought both the Chinese and US bomber flights were no big deal. It showed nothing in terms of capabilities that the other side weren't already aware of. They're international waters; they can fly where they'd like (and I didn't see any suggestion the US overflew the island bases as a real FON challenge).

Maybe in game theory terms they were a warning of an implied uncertainty - but not much of one.

If something goes kinetic, it's more likely to be derived from a naval dance that gets out of control or an itchy finger shooting down an FON overflight. Hopefully that won't happen; but it's part of why I think FON's should become part of everyday routine.

The reason I raised game theory is because China is already applying non-kinetic, non military threats and punishments (economic and cyber) to stop alliance building so it can pick off countries one at a time.

 

[John Fedup]

The US should now be engaging it's allies more solemnly, particularly those involved in the SCS conflict. Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, should all be heavily considering what role they can play to support the US should a conflict occur. The situation really is that serious. If I were the US I would also engage NATO in discussion on the issueIf they all agree that a conflict is too appalling to contemplate then they need to bite the bullet and consider serious economic sanctions. Either way it calls for action not procrastination.

Getting everyone on board for sanctions would be just about impossible as long as some Asian countries feel China isn't a threat to them (at the moment)

The reason I say this is that the region is running out of time where N Korea is concerned. Quite likely they will have the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead to target the W coast USA in 2017.

Agreed, and perhaps there is a wide census about NK but China may reverse their concerns about NK as it works in their favour with regards to the SCS dispute.

 

[Blackshoe]

All this time the US seems to be in its own state of Executive blindness. Indeed, with Russia, China and North Korea all dialling up their rogueness quotient, I was appalled to read yesterday the President is thinking of disclaiming a US first strike ability; exactly the opposite to what game theory requires at exactly the wrong time (horrible though the possibility of nuclear exchange is, such a step probably increases its eventual likelihood).

Just one note I'd make-I think it's important and useful to separate the Norks from the PRC and Russia in terms of states going rogue. While North Korea has been escalating their rhetoric and capabilities lately, I think it's for very different reasons overall than the other two, and it's part of a sustained, 70-yr campaign from them, whereas the other two are on a relatively newer course.

But overall, I thought your post was excellent.

 

[STURM]

I would think that North Kore's nukes are intended for regime survival. After watching what happened to Saddam and Gadaffi; North Korea's leadership is probably convinced that the only thing stopping others from attempting regime change is North Korea's nukes.

 

[swerve]

Agreed. They're not going to attack, either conventionally or with nukes, as that would provoke retaliation which would destroy the regime.

 

[weaponwh]

Rubbish, the case was about Chinas unilateral illegal expropriation of all the waters and seabed within the unrecognised so-called Nine Dashed Line.

What the f***??? This is exactly what it is. You are showing a pattern of ignoring all the evidence that is contrary to current PRC political thought. So that makes me curious about you and your motivations for posting on this topic.

you talk about rubbish yet didn't provide link to disapprove it. the court case was about whether or not those island are island or reef, not about territory disputed, right ? international court rarely get involve in territory dispute. the reason Taiwan send ship after the court decision shows its not only a china issue but ALL dispute parties issues as well. Its not a singular identity china vs phillippine, but about multi-party dispute between each other as well. so please tell me what the current top level PRC thought is, apparently you know whats the prc think?

Dial back your attitude - 1st warning issued

don't have problem dial down the tone, but consider the other poster use the F word and bit high tone there as well. does he get warning too?

 

[swerve]

Yes, it's a multi-party dispute, but China's stance is unique, & uniquely contrary to international law - law which China has promised to abide by, & which it cites in other disputes, but which it flatly refuses to admit applies in this case.

China does not dispute the UNCLOS ruling on its claim in the South China Sea on any legal argument or any disagreement about whether particular reefs, etc. are islands: it simply states, contrary to all the relevant international law, that UNCLOS has no jurisdiction over China's activities in the SCS. Its argument is, basically, "international law does not apply because we say it doesn't".

The nine-dash line (inherited from the Kuomintang) has no legal basis, & is NOT about whether reefs are islands or vice-versa. China says that everything inside is belongs to China - not just islands, rocks, etc., but the sea & seabed. It's not a claim to an EEZ in the normal sense, or related to distances from land. In some cases it intrudes into territorial waters of other states, based on land which China recognises as belonging to those states, despite there not even being a rock which China could call an island close enough to claim any territorial waters from. So on the one hand China says "we agree that this land is yours", & "we agree that everyone is entitled to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters", but on the other hand it says "that water's Chinese, despite it being within 12 nautical miles of your coast".

China has also objected to other countries enforcing their EEZs even where China does not formally dispute them. Arresting a Chinese boat caught illegally fishing, however blatant the illegality, arouses Chinese ire, as Indonesia has found.

Look at the facts. Stop spouting Chinese propaganda.

 

[ngatimozart]

you talk about rubbish yet didn't provide link to disapprove it. the court case was about whether or not those island are island or reef, not about territory disputed, right ? international court rarely get involve in territory dispute. the reason Taiwan send ship after the court decision shows its not only a china issue but ALL dispute parties issues as well. Its not a singular identity china vs phillippine, but about multi-party dispute between each other as well. so please tell me what the current top level PRC thought is, apparently you know whats the prc think?

Dial back your attitude - 1st warning issued

don't have problem dial down the tone, but consider the other poster use the F word and bit high tone there as well. does he get warning too?

I would strongly advise you not to take on the Mods. The Mod who issued the warning doesn't tolerate back chat.

 

[cdxbow]

The Philippines press is reporting extra PRC ships in the Scarborough shoal, including a dredge - Duterte asking China to explain construction on Scarborough Shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News

After the snub President Xi gave President Obama at the G20, I can only think the worst of Chinese intentions, and this is all going to get very ugly.

 

[gazzzwp]

The Philippines press is reporting extra PRC ships in the Scarborough shoal, including a dredge - Duterte asking China to explain construction on Scarborough Shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News

After the snub President Xi gave President Obama at the G20, I can only think the worst of Chinese intentions, and this is all going to get very ugly.

Yes a major test for US resolve appears to be rapidly approaching as this was (apparently) always stated as Washington's 'Red Line'.

Philippines ‘Gravely Concerned’ China is Starting to Invade Scarborough Shoal

Yes we have been there before.

:sleepy3

 

[Think_Tank]

NKorean Nukes

I would think that North Kore's nukes are intended for regime survival. After watching what happened to Saddam and Gadaffi; North Korea's leadership is probably convinced that the only thing stopping others from attempting regime change is North Korea's nukes.

Nkorean nuke tests in the past if should really successful doesn't mean it can be armed in a ballistic missile althought country's leader kept boasting test was a success. Such public announcement can be compared to a loud sound produced by an empty container as part of psychological warfare in carrying out empty threats and intimidation. SKorea and Japan current military deterrence and plan deployment of THAAD along border give NKorean leader an sleepless nights. I wonder why China strongly opposed THAAD deployment similar to the case of ballistic missile defense in Europe condemned by Russian.

 

[Think_Tank]

Chinese Dredging System

The Philippines press is reporting extra PRC ships in the Scarborough shoal, including a dredge - Duterte asking China to explain construction on Scarborough Shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News

After the snub President Xi gave President Obama at the G20, I can only think the worst of Chinese intentions, and this is all going to get very ugly.

I am not sure if current Philippine president is playing ignorant or unaware of Chinese ships along Scarborough shoal lingering around in the area for sometime. As a matter of fact most of dredged soil used in development of occupied island came from another island with the help of other highly paid local government officials. Recent dredger floats discovered drifting closed by Palawan could have been part of dChinese dredging components. In contrast the island developed into a military fortress keeps growing area wise as we speak where additional military structures were observed by US military satellite being constructed.

 

[STURM]

Nkorean nuke tests in the past if should really successful doesn't mean it can be armed in a ballistic missile althought country's leader kept boasting test was a success.

You're missing the point .....

North Korea doesn't need a functional nuclear tip ballistic missile. From their perspective it would be great it they had a nuclear armed missile but the whole idea of having nukes is to serve as a deterrent and they do have nuclear devices. The whole world knows that if North Korea were invaded, the North Korean leadership would not hesitate to detonate nuclear devices, even on it's own territory; that itself serves as a deterrent to anyone contemplating regime change.
Despite all the propaganda and rhetoric; the North Korean leadership's main agenda is regime survival; not threatening the world or launching nuclear tip missiles at its neighbours at the slightest - perceived - provocation.