I've commented before that MFAT and the PM's office have grown to very much appreciate the service provided by the 757s. It has proven very helpful in regional meetings around the Pacific, where RNZAF can easily collect government leaders from a few different states and transport them to something like a regional forum.
It not only makes NZ look like a helpful friend, but means our politicians and diplomats get a few hours of direct contact time to debate issues and come up with NZ-friendly tactics.
I can't see the 757s going unless/until they can be replaced with an equivalent or better capability at lower cost. I suspect a charter arrangement with AirNZ that covered guaranteed availability would be closely considered by gov't if the price was right.
I actually think that if the revised assumptions that they have been working on with respect to strategic lift (though heavily redacted in released DWP documents but noting a revision due to the weight of the Antarctic dimension in this role and that according to the documents the C-17 is the preferred in this capability subset) do not play out then a more capable troop transport COTS platform also in service with our close partners may / may have to prevail.
The 'tactical' side of the equation is heading towards the C-130J in my view as the released DWP docs are noting the phrase like for like. (Yeap that is what I thought too 40 South) The final Cabinet decision of the Air Mobility package is not scheduled until 2019, which does leave some wriggle room for the A400M to get its act together.
The whole FAMC zone is a stuff up after 4 years of investigation and scoping. Because they are none the wiser. In a few years we will look back at the prevarication over the not moving fast enough over the last whitetail C-17's as one of the great stuff up's on NZ procurement or in this case non procurement history. The short term focus on the political target of achieving a small surplus has gravely affected a core capability that will have repercussions for the NZDF for the next 40 years.
Limitations of Defence White Paper noted in the documents (I do note they are dated circa June 2015):
"Lack of heavy strategic airlift capability affects ability to deploy heavy vehicles and helicopters at short notice, including Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief response."
The released DWP documents also note:
It affects the NZDF / NZ Government's full ability to:
a) contribute to international efforts to resolve or manage conflicts, including undertaking combat roles, peacekeeping, HADR, and exercises.
b) lead (or operate with the support of others) an operation in the South Pacific.
c) support NZ civilian presence at Scott Base and contribute towards Joint Lift requirements between NZ-US.
The lack of the above capability would make a total mockery of all the flowery good intentioned language elsewhere. This is basic stuff to get a full and solid capability for the long term that actually makes the policy work. It is like building a new metropolitan hospital without an A&E department and having a day clinic instead.
No wonder there was a rethink being demanded from Cabinet.
