A single airframe is certainly not what anyone is after. I appreciate the concerns you raise - but I would not categorically rule it out nor in - nor would I rule in or out the A400M as the designated alternative. Which still carries considerable risks.I personally cannot see us getting a single whitetail or even a few 'spare' second handers. A single frame is problematic at best, as we have found with other assets and our policy of getting 2 of others does'nt actually fare much better for high usage equipment (which supposedly C17 would be) and the most beneficial 3 seems a long shot bar the US giving us some of their storage frames.
I understand that there is resistance to that on both sides anyway. That got knocked off the table even before Wayne Mapp took office who originally raised it.Buying the last whitetail then saying we can just tag it onto the Australian squadron and then borrow one of theirs when needed is abit of a ask even for them, we're not talking about a unimog here (and we barely do it for them).
There has been prior information posted on this topic earlier so I do not need to repeat it. Suffice to say that more C-17s were built iirc (25) due to politics than were required by the USAF of which 16 will be stored. There are a number of mutual benefits that are apparent. 1. US Pivot into the Pacific 2. Mutual interest in Antarctic operations. 3 A genuine requirement from a fellow ASIC member. 4. Flow on sales of other complementary assets from US manufacturers that would colour future acquistitions - per C-130 / C-27/ B350. Yes there are also a number of drawbacks but these are not insurmountable. One risk though is any dramatic foreign policy and defence departure in engagement and posture following the US Presidential election.Expecting surplus USAF versions to be another fix is again not without issue as no doubt they would be the oldest high mileage frames and who's to say they even want to 'rent' them out anyway as they may indeed want to mothball them to save what life they have left for their use and rotation as well as save funds, there are no more C17s being built not a case of them building too many. In both cases what is the benefit to them in either of these scenarios and would we be the only country in line for consideration?
The final airframe in San Antonio at the end of the day may find itself in the Middle East possibly with Kuwait showing interest.I would think one of the current operators like UK or canada would realise as Aus has done and see the benefit of expanding their fleets as a last chance at gaining numbers for the remainig new build, Aus could still purchase it themselves, maybe just negotiating a favourable last time price. They have the experience, support and infrastructure, we do not, it would need to spend an unproportional amount of time in training just to keep crews current that along with regular maintainence would make operational time sporadic at best without heavy (over) usage. Aus struggled with 5 and we are considering 1, still not a wise move IMO in terms of logistics, operation and impact on the rest of the fleet(s) regardless of the perceived benefits.
The C-17 operates on a global sustainment model quite different to our current practices - no one manages it without the US partnership. From Kuwait through to the RAF.
I would not be to quick to pour cold water on this.