NZDF General discussion thread

ngatimozart

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i haven't had a tot yet so I'm not dreaming or seeing things, but first this which I posted yetsreday:
Green Party co-leader James Shaw says it's important that money is well-spent, fit-for-purpose and accounted for.

"I think it would be great if New Zealand could live up to its commitment of spending 0.7 percent of GDP on overseas aid, for example, but we recognise that defence spending is expensive and a lot of our equipment is outdated and we want to make sure our people have the best equipment they can and that they are as safe as possible".
Defence Force eyes drones in $20B wish list | Politics | Newshub
And now this from Nicky Hager who hates all things right wing and US:
Now the Government has invited a United States warship to visit the country as part of this year's Navy 75th anniversary celebration. Could that spell the end of the nuclear free policy? There has been worried discussion on this question.

The answer - based on reliable, publicly available sources - is no, not at all. If the US Navy sends a warship in November, it will be on New Zealand's terms. The nuclear free policy is not threatened.
Nicky Hager: Let the US send a warship.
Maybe I shall have two tots of squirt.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Bugger. I shall have to rethink it then. :( Tot time.
The Beechcraft B350ER do not have to be the goldplated MSA/ISR versions and in such numbers. They will be primarily be for MEPT + Sim so any supplementary patrol/sar capability would only need to be modest. I would say 6 airframes would be enough as Short Range MSR would be best done buy a UAS that hooks into the main BAMS control station network. Only 3 further Beechcraft T6-C would be needed to cover the increase in pilot training. Thus money could be saved right there.

An F16-V Squadron would only be a factor if NZ First makes it a policy bottom line when negotiating with the Government. Then that funding would have to be dealt with outside the remit of this DWP. Bringing back the ACF is a part of NZ First Defence Policy so you never know.

The 4 x OPV's need greater definition for that price point. I would say that the 1st built would be the Southern Ocean version sought. The next three would effectively replace 2 OPV's and 2 remaining IPV's? That is logical.

I like the MH60R but a mix of Sierra's with Romeo's would be cheaper and better reflect the fleet outputs. I take it that the CH-47 reflects the tactical air mobility quotient. I would add a further CH-47 airframe tbh.

The Bell AH1 Vipers are kind of redundant. Half a billion saved right there. The extra 5 LUH"s you sought could be up armed simply enough.

Actually I would rather turnkey packages that have all up quoted costs included than guesstimates as support costs are all over the place and a general 100% rule is too imprecise.
 

kiwipatriot69

Active Member
Yes, i was surprised hearing that from the greens too, another reason to celebrate Ngati. I wonder where we would find the 3 C17 you were after though, and wouldnt that mean bigger hanger facilities and runway?
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, i was surprised hearing that from the greens too, another reason to celebrate Ngati. I wonder where we would find the 3 C17 you were after though, and wouldnt that mean bigger hanger facilities and runway?
A new hanger would have to be found for the T-tailed A400M's if also selected.

Sixteen C-17's are due to be stored this July as the USAF has only future funding for 206 airframes iirc. At MTOW the C-17 is within B757 parametres so no need for longer runways.
 

ngatimozart

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Remembering that this is hypothetical discussion.
The Beechcraft B350ER do not have to be the goldplated MSA/ISR versions and in such numbers. They will be primarily be for MEPT + Sim so any supplementary patrol/sar capability would only need to be modest. I would say 6 airframes would be enough as Short Range MSR would be best done buy a UAS that hooks into the main BAMS control station network. Only 3 further Beechcraft T6-C would be needed to cover the increase in pilot training. Thus money could be saved right there.
The current 4 B200s are leased until 2018, hence new aircraft will have to acquired for MEPT and light communications taskings. By my reckoning five should cover all that and that includes sims. The MSA / ISR variants are for the EEZ work plus ISR takings where a P8 is not practicable, available or the situation is to risky for such an expensive asset. I see them as an increase in capability and flexibility. They are basically an unarmed aircraft and would be of similar cost to a MSR UAV. The Texan numbers, yes probably.
An F16-V Squadron would only be a factor if NZ First makes it a policy bottom line when negotiating with the Government. Then that funding would have to be dealt with outside the remit of this DWP. Bringing back the ACF is a part of NZ First Defence Policy so you never know.
This is not a F16V acquisition. This is a far cheaper option at about 1/3 the cost. These are 24 regenerated and updated block 25 C/Ds. Yes, if Winston is king maker that may be an option.
The 4 x OPV's need greater definition for that price point. I would say that the 1st built would be the Southern Ocean version sought. The next three would effectively replace 2 OPV's and 2 remaining IPV's? That is logical.
The suggested OPVs are more OCVs with sensors and weapon sets similar to the Navantia BAMS. One would be a sub-variant built to Ice Class 1A specifications. Modular weapons and missions systems would be utilised where possible.
I like the MH60R but a mix of Sierra's with Romeo's would be cheaper and better reflect the fleet outputs. I take it that the CH-47 reflects the tactical air mobility quotient. I would add a further CH-47 airframe tbh.
Hmm, say 9 Romeos and 3 Sierras then. The reason for the 2 extra marinised NH90 for navy is for use on the MSC and Canterbury / LHD. Also 2 extra to boost 3 Sqn numbers.
The Bell AH1 Vipers are kind of redundant. Half a billion saved right there. The extra 5 LUH"s you sought could be up armed simply enough.
The LUHs could be armed up, but the AH1 Vipers give the army a dedicated ARH that is marinised and used by the USMC. Something like that is best flown and used by people who are and think army; the same way that the Sprites are flown and used by those who are and think navy. Another point with the AH1 is that it is available for situations / taskings where fast air is either impracticable or unavailable. It can be flown off an LHD / LPD, F16s can't. It also provides eyes and claws for the ground commander that he / she has control over and it is able to escort troop carrying helos medevacs etc.
Actually I would rather turnkey packages that have all up quoted costs included than guesstimates as support costs are all over the place and a general 100% rule is too imprecise.
I agree, but I have to go with what I have got and I am aware that each acquisition has its own foibles and eccentricities. However I think the 100% rule in something as large as this does even out a bit because the support costs do vary so much in each individual acquisition. Part of this is not only keeping current capability, but enhancing it and adding badly needed capability to NZDF.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
The LUHs could be armed up, but the AH1 Vipers give the army a dedicated ARH that is marinised and used by the USMC. Something like that is best flown and used by people who are and think army; the same way that the Sprites are flown and used by those who are and think navy. Another point with the AH1 is that it is available for situations / taskings where fast air is either impracticable or unavailable. It can be flown off an LHD / LPD, F16s can't. It also provides eyes and claws for the ground commander that he / she has control over and it is able to escort troop carrying helos medevacs etc.
As much as I'd like the NZDF to have a fleet of AH1 Vipers in its inventory, I somehow doubt the NZ Army would deem them a priority when they have other areas that need strengthening.

Sure for rotary, more Army support in the form of additional medium utility helicopters (NH-90) could be more likely (to ensure adequate numbers to support deployments), perhaps also a heavy lift type helo could be in consideration mix ... and possibly, just possibly, in terms of stretching out the possibilities perhaps some armed light recon helos (perhaps in the form of fully outfitted AW-109's that were discussed here after the last DWP10)? Then what about UAV's? I'd pick they'd be more realistic (in some form or another).

Realistically, in terms of the actual Army needs in the DWP16, the relevant part is:

5.17 The Defence Force fleet of Light Armoured Vehicles provides firepower, manoeuvre and protection to ground forces. Work is well underway to consider how and to what extent this capability might be replaced, modernised and/or integrated with other forms of protected mobility in the future.
I find it interesting that replacement is now in the consideration mix (rather than simply upgraded as per previous announcements).

The other interesting aspect is what are some options for the Army in relation to other forms of protected mobility for the future (presumably that's 2020 onwards)?

At the "extreme" end - a complementary wheeled (or tracked) fighting vehicle ....? Or something with a larger calibre turret in a fire support role to protect the LAV's (thinking back to the M41/Scorpion/M113 days - 76mm etc)....? Or something different altogether?

Or then again, perhaps something a lot simpler but well protected (a la MRAP's etc) or variants of the LAV?
 

MrConservative

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With UAS solution confirmed in the DWP it kind of changes things dramatically and eliminates the ISR variant of the B350. We will be of course be building infrastructure for a as yet unmanned system that will complement the P-8 - but likely to be Triton. A smaller UAV such as the maritime variant of the Hermes 450 which is lower cost and a far better overall solution than going for manned ISR B-350's is wher I would go. I do not a mind basic patrol capability in the B-350's used for some MarSurv work in their MEPT role but full monty ISR versions at $45m a pop for our inner EEZ requirements is OTT. That is why I would limit the buy to just six B350 airframes all up and then add a Hermes 450 sized UAS.

As for the minor surface combatants I understand the rationale. It is something that I have proposed myself as a solution to eventually replace the protector ships. Myself I would likely have the first vessel be uniquely designed for the Southern Ocean role and not have it drive the design considerations of the following 3 vessels.

IF and I appreciate that is a big hypothetical if with respect to NZ First insisting on an ACF as part of its policy and governance deal with the govt then regenerated F-16's would be probably be the best option. However, I would consider that going down that pathway would require us to phase in a Viper V / CAPES upgrade downstream as by 2025 Block 25's would be marginal in their warfighting utility by that stage. Wearing my hypothetical Finance ministers hat the hypothetical Army rotary Vipers will pay for the the hypothetical Viper V upgrade. There is only so much money to go around.

Again the eyes and ears of the ground commander would likely call on one of the small tactical UAV's that the Army have been investigating. Actually if it is combat under UNSC Chp VII then a NZ CATG will likely be under the command of the LCC who is a non Kiwi and a full suite of taskforce air assets will be involved.
 
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chis73

Active Member
Incoming! More analysis of the DWP from Richard Harman, Robert Ayson & David Capie. I particularly liked Harman's piece.

New thinking and a big shopping list for Defence | Politik

NZ Defence White Paper: A maritime focus with a difference

For all the thrill of cyber armies and drones, there’s more to NZ’s new defence strategy |

Agree with MrC & David Capie: Gower's piece on TV3 needs to win some special prize for gonzo journalism. Wow.

Overall, I'm disappointed but not surprised in the DWP. Expected more clarity and a lot better rationalisation / explanation of the new capabilities. I guess I would label this the Sex Pistols white paper: i.e. Pretty Vacant. Thought maybe there would be at least some extra helicopters or some MRAPs (for the Combat Support troops).

Has anyone come across any public rationale from NZG for an ice strengthened tanker? Is the Maersk Peary (38000t deadweight tonnage) not big enough? Do we need to re-fuel the proposed new OPV at sea in the Southern Ocean? #Totally mystified
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
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As much as I'd like the NZDF to have a fleet of AH1 Vipers in its inventory, I somehow doubt the NZ Army would deem them a priority when they have other areas that need strengthening.
Fair enough, good point.
Sure for rotary, more Army support in the form of additional medium utility helicopters (NH-90) could be more likely (to ensure adequate numbers to support deployments), perhaps also a heavy lift type helo could be in consideration mix ... and possibly, just possibly, in terms of stretching out the possibilities perhaps some armed light recon helos (perhaps in the form of fully outfitted AW-109's that were discussed here after the last DWP10)? Then what about UAV's? I'd pick they'd be more realistic (in some form or another).
Yes there are some UAVs out there that soldiers can use at platoon or even squad level.
Realistically, in terms of the actual Army needs in the DWP16, the relevant part is:
5.17 The Defence Force fleet of Light Armoured Vehicles provides firepower, manoeuvre and protection to ground forces. Work is well underway to consider how and to what extent this capability might be replaced, modernised and/or integrated with other forms of protected mobility in the future.

I find it interesting that replacement is now in the consideration mix (rather than simply upgraded as per previous announcements).

The other interesting aspect is what are some options for the Army in relation to other forms of protected mobility for the future (presumably that's 2020 onwards)?

At the "extreme" end - a complementary wheeled (or tracked) fighting vehicle ....? Or something with a larger calibre turret in a fire support role to protect the LAV's (thinking back to the M41/Scorpion/M113 days - 76mm etc)....? Or something different altogether?
That's why Included the 8x8 wheeled 105mm SPG. Vehicles such as the Italian Centauro B1 or the Japanese MCV are examples. Also the SPAAG I was looking at uses the Rheinmetall 35mm Revolver Cannon, a.k.a., Millennium Gun and it has secondary ground role using Frangible Amour Piercing Discarding Sabot (FAPDS) rounds against ground targets, so it would deal to most targets. One of the reasons that I suggest this gun is that it could also be fitted to the frigates as secondary armament and for CIWS, plus fitted to the OPVs, LHD, LWSC & MSC.
Or then again, perhaps something a lot simpler but well protected (a la MRAP's etc) or variants of the LAV?
My own view is something either as good as or better than the NZLAV and it has to be 8x8 wheeled because less cost, maintenance, is faster and quieter than tracked vehicles. We don't have tanks so we don't need the tracked IFVs to accompany them. IMHO it should have a 30mm gun and better protection than the NZLAV.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
With UAS solution confirmed in the DWP it kind of changes things dramatically and eliminates the ISR variant of the B350. We will be of course be building infrastructure for a as yet unmanned system that will complement the P-8 - but likely to be Triton. A smaller UAV such as the maritime variant of the Hermes 450 which is lower cost and a far better overall solution than going for manned ISR B-350's is wher I would go. I do not a mind basic patrol capability in the B-350's used for some MarSurv work in their MEPT role but full monty ISR versions at $45m a pop for our inner EEZ requirements is OTT. That is why I would limit the buy to just six B350 airframes all up and then add a Hermes 450 sized UAS......
Re: B350 one factor in determining fleet size is that RNZAF have stated they plan to bring AWO Training back from Aussie in the next 2-3 years (currently done on RAAF B350) - 42 Sqn is an obvious pick for that role but it's hardly likely to make much difference to the number of a/c required.

As regards to DWP, not much to add to the discussion - I think everyone's come to the conclusion it's a huge anti-climax with it being largely a commitment to projects already in the pipeline. Good to see recognition of cyber-risks but boo-hoo, no more AW109 (nor move to light Armed -recon role for same).

Personal wish-list is a replacement for Mistral and a weapon of some sort to combat hostile UAV / drones over the battlefield (jammers; precision targeting etc).

At least the response has been low-key - either a sign of support or a sign of lack of interest!?!
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This is the updated list with the comments taken into account.
  • RNZAF
  • 5 x Augusta Westland AW109 LUH: $66,706,196
  • 6 x Beechcraft B350ER: $151,200,712
  • 3 x Beechcraft T6C Texan II: $30,684,850
  • 3 x Boeing C17A (ex USAF): $667,061,963 less guesstimate 2nd hand cost
  • 4 x Boeing CH47F Chinook: $176,756,597
  • 3 x Boeing KC40 (based on combination of B737-800 BCF & ERX): $713,725,170 and KC46 price difference
  • 5 x Lockheed KC130J: $498,814,112
  • 2 x NHI NH90 Helicopter (NFH -Support): $120,749,710
  • 3 x Northrop Grump MQ4C Triton BAMS: $546,941,891
  • LM F16 Block 25 REGENUPGRADE Package: $1,111,769,938
  • Total RNZAF Acquisitions: $4,084,411,139
  • .
  • RNZN
  • 1 x MSC: $250,000,000 (NZDF LTDP}
  • 3 x FFG/H: $2,487,974,789 unit price guesstimated @ €500 million to allow for mods.
  • 1 x LHD ~ 15,000 tonnes: $441,743,255 yes I know - only source I could find.
  • 1 x LWSC: $150,000,000 Guesstimate
  • NHI NH90 Helicopter (NFH -Support): $120,749,710
  • 4 x OPV: $1,107,978,106 OPVs of similar capabilities but around 3000 tonne mark.
  • 9 x Sikorsky MH60R: $773,987,548
  • 3 x Sikorsky MH60S: $97,524,459
  • Total RNZN Acquistions: $4,986,460,979
  • .
  • NZ Army
  • 12 x 8x8 Self Propelled Howitzer 105mm: $96,000,000 Guesstimate
  • 12 x 8x8 Self Propelled Anti Aircraft Artillery 35mm Millenium gun & Mistral or Stinger: $102,000,000 Guesstimate
  • Total Army Acquisitions: $198,000,000
  • .
  • Estimated spares, maintenance, manuals, simulators etc., @ 100% unit cost: $8,407,102,180
  • Total Estimated Present Value Acquisition Cost: $17,925,974,299
  • .
  • Annual Present Value Funding Requirements 15 Years: $1,195,064,953
  • Exchange rates valid: 25/5/2016
  • NZ$1.00 = US$0.6746
  • NZ$1.00 = €0.6029
All costs are in NZ$. I haven't bothered to round up / down after converting to NZ$ because that would magnify already existing errors.

That's ~ $1.6 billion shaved from the list.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Has anyone come across any public rationale from NZG for an ice strengthened tanker? Is the Maersk Peary (38000t deadweight tonnage) not big enough? Do we need to re-fuel the proposed new OPV at sea in the Southern Ocean? #Totally mystified
The Ayson article touches on the Antarctica rationale. The lack of current capability on our side of the partnership to support our dimension of the US-NZ Antarctic relationship and that the new Endeavour replacement vessel and airlift capability will have to address that.

You may have seen the live feed on One News tonight of the C-17 landing at night (as you have at this time of year) during the winter season at Willy field at Mactown.

That USAF C-17 travelled half way around the world from probably Lewis McChord to do something we hopefully could or should do if we had a C-17 or three. The irony also being that Lewis McChord are to lose eight C-17's next month to stored Reserve.
 

chis73

Active Member
That's ~ $1.6 billion shaved from the list.
That's good :). You'll need the money to account for the Defence Estate recapitalisation costs, which I don't see on your list. Remember that the infrastructure has also been run down to generate the NZDF's savings (see the DMRR cabinet papers on the MOD site). Then there is the small matter of all the new infrastructure required to house all of your new kit!
 

ngatimozart

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That's good :). You'll need the money to account for the Defence Estate recapitalisation costs, which I don't see on your list. Remember that the infrastructure has also been run down to generate the NZDF's savings (see the DMRR cabinet papers on the MOD site). Then there is the small matter of all the new infrastructure required to house all of your new kit!
I had forgotten the infrastructure but yes they would have to open a new air base maybe near Burnham Military Camp in Canterbury :) :) In the long term I do so a lot of pressure being put on the RNZAF to move out of Whenuapai because of the substantial urban encroachment and the subsequent NIMBY syndrome. The practicalities of basing hypothetical C17s, KC40s and KC130Js at Whenuapai no longer really exists when the main army contingents are at Linton and Burnham. I also think at some stage the RNZN will eventually move from Devonport as well. At present Auckland land prices the sale of Whenuapai and the surrounding defence estate would probably just about fully finance a replacement air base near Burnham :D :D :D
 
The only way that kind of wish list would ever see the light of day is if the Chinese sand dredgers turn up off the coast of New Zealand. :)
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The only way that kind of wish list would ever see the light of day is if the Chinese sand dredgers turn up off the coast of New Zealand. :)
It's not a wish list as such and note that I used the words theoretical and hypothetical to describe it. Also there is no need to make uncalled for disparaging remarks, so please keep it seemly.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
That's good :). You'll need the money to account for the Defence Estate recapitalisation costs, which I don't see on your list. Remember that the infrastructure has also been run down to generate the NZDF's savings (see the DMRR cabinet papers on the MOD site). Then there is the small matter of all the new infrastructure required to house all of your new kit!
Still some more fat to trim - and I am channeling Bill English.

I think that the C-40 figures at $713m are inflated. Even with a simple Israeli retractable twin hose drouge A2A upgrade there should be a lot more change for what is a essentially a production OTS aircraft. We are here envisaging basically a stripper P-8 airframe with a cargo door. The standard C-40A sold to the USN in 2014 as a one off sale at US$70m. $105m for the whole USN 5 year fleet support contract. Three would be great but going for two would be enough. They would give around 1500 hours p.a in any instance. Also with an A2A capability retro fitted into C-40's I would then question the requirement of KC-130J's if we are going to on this hypothetical force structure of NG's. The cumulative saving their will go towards the additional hangers we would require at WP at OH.

I also think the hypothetical modelling should be divided into the first 10 years (11 Billion) then the following 5 years period. I would keep the F-16 stuff out of the equation because though I am not discounting it out and would support in theory funding to support NZ First Policy - they are not yet part of the Govt.

What would be useful is what is realistically possible within the constraints as opposed to what is ideal.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
I had forgotten the infrastructure but yes they would have to open a new air base maybe near Burnham Military Camp in Canterbury :) :) In the long term I do so a lot of pressure being put on the RNZAF to move out of Whenuapai because of the substantial urban encroachment and the subsequent NIMBY syndrome. The practicalities of basing hypothetical C17s, KC40s and KC130Js at Whenuapai no longer really exists when the main army contingents are at Linton and Burnham. I also think at some stage the RNZN will eventually move from Devonport as well. At present Auckland land prices the sale of Whenuapai and the surrounding defence estate would probably just about fully finance a replacement air base near Burnham :D :D :D
Personally I would look at re-purposing WB to looking after the 14 Sqd, 42 Sqd and the CFS training elements. I would have WP for 6 Sqd, 5 Sqd - P8 and UAV's - the maritime elements. The rest essentially air mobility would be at the OH Superbase.

I gather from the political chatterati that the POAL may shift to the Firth of Thames off Orere Pt - with Cruise ships still remaining at Princess Wharf and the Navy at Devonport.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
The Ayson article touches on the Antarctica rationale. The lack of current capability on our side of the partnership to support our dimension of the US-NZ Antarctic relationship and that the new Endeavour replacement vessel and airlift capability will have to address that.

You may have seen the live feed on One News tonight of the C-17 landing at night (as you have at this time of year) during the winter season at Willy field at Mactown.

That USAF C-17 travelled half way around the world from probably Lewis McChord to do something we hopefully could or should do if we had a C-17 or three. The irony also being that Lewis McChord are to lose eight C-17's next month to stored Reserve.
I hope the ice strengthening on the MSC isn't just some rush of blood to the head by someone scratching around for a way to make it look to the US like we're investing in our Antarctic commitments.

If the MSC is going to be committed to summer re-supply it's going to either be a short-sharp tasking (i.e.: 1 round trip?) that has relatively little gain over current re-supply resources, or it will be a serious ongoing tasking (2-4 round trips?) that takes huge chunks out of the vessels ability to do it's core MSC tasking for a considerable period over summer.

Frankly either we snap-up the last C17 (if it is in fact still available) or we get a couple ex US reserve stocks (more likely) as that's the only way we can really make a meaningful contribution on the ice. The new OPV doesn't help the land-based ice Ops one bit unless it delivers personnel & light stores (only) over summer too.

Another point too - they've worked out the new OPV needs better systems redundancy & more 'compartments' - that will also hold for the MSC... hope they do the ice strengthening properly rather than the botch job they did on the existing OPV (poor weight calculations & no separate engine compartments).
 
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