NZDF General discussion thread

chis73

Active Member
Chis73
Thanks for that very useful post. I'm curious where you saw the DWP release date? - I haven't seen anything on the usual sites.

Any last-minute content predictions from the defence-watchers here? (Apart from bland aspirational blather unsupported by funding commitments, which we can take as a given).

My picks would be:
- a weaker statement on South China Sea developments than Aust/US are expecting
- announcement of contract with Hyundai for Endeavour replacement.
It came through via Twitter via a reputable source (actually I just googled "defence white paper nz" and limited it to last week and it showed up).

I'm not getting my hopes up for the white paper - expecting turgid blandness & fiscal non-commitment really. I'll guess the policy statements will look like they were copied from the last two white papers. Wouldn't be surprised if more equipment is pushed off into the never-never (as in the great Australian desert wasteland) of future-projected spending.

Actually, I'm more interested in the public submissions (presuming they are released at the same time). Probably more intelligent ideas in there (and a few nutty ones) than in the official document.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
my left field pick is 6x C295 for delivery between 2018-19 and 3 A400M after 2023
Chance would be a fine thing!
Although given the adverse publicity recently over the lack of Navy patrolling of the EEZ, some measures to convince the public fish stocks are being protected might be a last-minute addition to the document.

Ngati
The Budget made it clear cyber-defence was in for a big funding boost, but i thought it was mainly via the intelligence agencies rather than NZDF. I guess all will be revealed soon, after a very long wait.

Defense News breaks down the latest Budget allocations by service here:
http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...16/06/03/new-zealand-defense-budget/85286358/
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Chance would be a fine thing!
Ngati
The Budget made it clear cyber-defence was in for a big funding boost, but i thought it was mainly via the intelligence agencies rather than NZDF. I guess all will be revealed soon, after a very long wait.
I was being sarcastic re MSM. I have a copy of the budget documents and the funding appeared to be going to the spooks.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
2016 dwp

According to Stuff there is a $20 billion upgrade for aircraft, ships and cyberdefence for NZDF. Apparently the DWP is 100 pages but not on the Ministry website yet. Apparently the DWP states what will be replaced but makes no mention what with, which is par for the course. $20 billion is a goodly sum.

ADDITION - Ministers Statement
Gerry Brownlee

8 June, 2016
Defence White Paper signals $20b investment plan

Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee today launched the Defence White Paper 2016, outlining a 15-year modernisation plan worth nearly $20 billion to ensure the New Zealand Defence Force has the capabilities it needs to meet the country’s security and defence challenges.

“These challenges include having awareness of, and being able to respond to, activities in New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), supporting our interests in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and protecting Defence information networks against increasing cyber threats,” Mr Brownlee says.

“The White Paper outlines current plans to replace or enhance existing major capabilities such as the ANZAC frigates and strategic and tactical airlift capability, as well as investing in new capabilities.

“These include new cyber support capabilities to improve protection of Defence Force information networks, and ice strengthening for a third Offshore Patrol Vessel and a naval tanker as we look to better support our interests in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.”

In addition to maintaining the Defence Force’s existing mix of capabilities, the Government will invest in:

better supporting sea-to-shore operations with a littoral operations support vessel that can operate in medium security environments;
enhanced air surveillance capability to better enable the Defence Force to undertake air surveillance operations at home and overseas;
a cyber security support capability for the protection of Defence Force networks, platforms and people; and
additional defence intelligence personnel to support military operations.

“The White Paper has been developed in close consultation with other government agencies, members of the Ministerial Advisory Panel and the public, and it is clear New Zealanders expect the Defence Force to have capabilities that are up to date, interoperable within our suite of assets and with our close partners, and able to respond to a range of contingencies,” Mr Brownlee says.

“The $20 billion investment over the next 15 years signalled in the White Paper provides the Defence Force with a degree of funding certainty that enables it to plan with confidence out to 2030 and beyond.

“What I am signalling today is the Government’s continued commitment to the defence and security of New Zealand through responsible and timely investment in our armed forces.”
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/defence-white-paper-signals-20b-investment-plan
DWP Q&A
DWP Infographic
 
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htbrst

Active Member

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think that 20 billion over 15 years is fair and reasonable. It does not surprise us though who have looked closely at this over the last few years. No specifics of course but we knew what was in store.

Now I am waiting for the cries of angst from the hard left types about all the social spending that will be missed out on, about toadiness towards the evil Americans and other such rubbish.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I think that 20 billion over 15 years is fair and reasonable. It does not surprise us though who have looked closely at this over the last few years. No specifics of course but we knew what was in store.

Now I am waiting for the cries of angst from the hard left types about all the social spending that will be missed out on, about toadiness towards the evil Americans and other such rubbish.
The angst has already started with them getting their knickers real twisted and all wound up about a possible USN ship visit in November for the RNZN 75th. They had no sense of humour when I ask them why they didn't protest about the presence of PLAN ships here that may or may have not carried nukes. :flame
:splat :daz

I had a look thru the DWP Q&A and I note that the govt state that NZ defence spending is around 1% GDP and it has no intention of increasing that between now and 2030 :( So one wonders where all of that $20 billion is coming from.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Just got to wait for the air transport review, that should come sooner rather than later I hope
 

Gracie1234

Well-Known Member
I imagine the funding will go above 1% GDP, as that is where we are now with no big purchases, and that figure was just put out to the public to quiet the noise of the $20B. I noticed it was reported that this is half what the UK and Aus spend. Makes sense.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
I do not get hung up so much about the the GDP% as a measure. It is quite crude in some respects and at times compares apples with oranges. Take the Danes and Norwegians for example. Their GDP%'s (1.3-1.4%) is less than other nations but they do Defence spending more effectively than many other nations.

This DWP16 at first glance is a step in the right direction and a crystal clear message that MarSurv is front and centre. You cannot read this without having BAMS being seriously considered.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I do not get hung up so much about the the GDP% as a measure. It is quite crude in some respects and at times compares apples with oranges. Take the Danes and Norwegians for example. Their GDP%'s (1.3-1.4%) is less than other nations but they do Defence spending more effectively than many other nations.

This DWP16 at first glance is a step in the right direction and a crystal clear message that MarSurv is front and centre. You cannot read this without having BAMS being seriously considered.
No you can't and I think another lost capability maybe being thought about seriously again. I noted the section in Chapter Four on Asia and how that has entered their thinking. Also the term "lines of communication" has been used frequently as well. I haven't read it all yet. Only got to start of Chap 5 and having a caffeine fix.:D The media commentary so far appears to be in favour, which is good.
 
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MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
No you can't and I think another lost capability maybe being thought about seriously again. I noted the section in Chapter Four on Asia and how that has entered their thinking. Also the term "lines of communication" has been used frequently as well.
Yes I can. MarSurv will not be cut and in fact will be enhanced. Noted a number of times in the DWP text and confirmed in the house this afternoon. You must be reading a different DWP that I am looking at this afternoon.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
I think that 20 billion over 15 years is fair and reasonable. It does not surprise us though who have looked closely at this over the last few years. No specifics of course but we knew what was in store.

Now I am waiting for the cries of angst from the hard left types about all the social spending that will be missed out on, about toadiness towards the evil Americans and other such rubbish.
In my view the WP sets out a realistic vision for the future, but I'm sceptical it is achievable on approx. 1% of GDP.

One of the few concrete pieces of new information is that the new tanker will be ice-strengthened. I wonder if they have also managed to fit a Chinook-capable flight deck? As far as I can remember, they were the only options for which separate costing was sought.

If you want to see some carping and moaning, just look at the comments underneath the Stuff article! As per most internet comment sections, the dire standard of comprehension and grammar makes it hard to take many of them seriously.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
Yes I can. MarSurv will not be cut and in fact will be enhanced. Noted a number of times in the DWP text and confirmed in the house this afternoon. You must be reading a different DWP that I am looking at this afternoon.
Perhaps I'm misreading something, but I think you and Ngati are vigorously agreeing with each other.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Perhaps I'm misreading something, but I think you and Ngati are vigorously agreeing with each other.
You are probably right. I may have misread it that MarSurv could be lost - maybe the sentence by NG was agreeing with me. I do not think we are losing anything - however I cannot see any lost capability regained - ala ACF. Then again that would not be front and centre in this document.

Just watched Gerry, Crusher Collins & Findlayson in the General Debate speak on the vital role of Defence and Security. Very robust views on why the defence reorientation under the DWP is vital.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
In my view the WP sets out a realistic vision for the future, but I'm sceptical it is achievable on approx. 1% of GDP.

One of the few concrete pieces of new information is that the new tanker will be ice-strengthened. I wonder if they have also managed to fit a Chinook-capable flight deck? As far as I can remember, they were the only options for which separate costing was sought.

If you want to see some carping and moaning, just look at the comments underneath the Stuff article! As per most internet comment sections, the dire standard of comprehension and grammar makes it hard to take many of them seriously.
It is the money not the % of GDP that matters in my view. The DWP is actually better than what I thought it would be (my expectations were low) - in fact the 15 year plan is gone from $16b to $20b. Note they are looking at working around the capital charge with Treasury - that is buried in the text. The CC impacts the NZDF unlike other ministries.

The views by people on stuff and herald are prompted. The left has so little money there only political communication avenue is to avalanche blogs and message boards. I will not read it because it will increase my blood presure and it is irrelevant anyway.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Yes I can. MarSurv will not be cut and in fact will be enhanced. Noted a number of times in the DWP text and confirmed in the house this afternoon. You must be reading a different DWP that I am looking at this afternoon.
I was agreeing with you and the no was meaning no you can't get hung up on % GDP. :)

I have read it through and it is a far better document than its predecessors for a few years. It sets out where the priorities are and where they see their concerns being.

A change in the Green Party policy and attitude?
Green Party co-leader James Shaw says it's important that money is well-spent, fit-for-purpose and accounted for.

"I think it would be great if New Zealand could live up to its commitment of spending 0.7 percent of GDP on overseas aid, for example, but we recognise that defence spending is expensive and a lot of our equipment is outdated and we want to make sure our people have the best equipment they can and that they are as safe as possible".

Defence Force eyes drones in $20B wish list | Politics | Newshub
Another quote from the same story which I hope takes root in the Kiwi psyche:
Prime Minister John Key says New Zealand's geographic isolation "no longer provides the protection it once did".
Ron Mark has started dribbling rubbish already. He is still claiming that the govt want to replace the C130s with (only) C17s at a cost of $3 billion. He also says that NZ doesn't need strategic airlift and that we only need tactical airlift, plus that the NH90s are no good because you can't fly them off a frigate. Gawd help us.
 
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