Submarine news

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knightrider4

Active Member
With the potential announcement of a winner this week regarding Oz next Subs, anychance of getting a poll up to see what general consensus with members is ?
I have a sneaking suspicion it will be the Barracuda. I think the option to collaborate on the replacement of the Suffren would be likely be part of the deal.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I have a sneaking suspicion it will be the Barracuda. I think the option to collaborate on the replacement of the Suffren would be likely be part of the deal.
The first thing which comes to mind is the question, "you do know April 1st was over three weeks ago, right?"

A French selection is of course possible, but IMO would be the least likely choice, for several reasons.

There are/would be significant redesign issues/risks, in changing the propulsion and gen sets from nuclear to conventional/diesel-electric. With a French design selection, it would also introduce numerous and significant IP firewall issues, which would impact and increase the difficulty in fitting and integrating US sourced sensors, combat data systems, and munitions. To the point that it would likely be easier and cheaper to go all Euro-sourced systems for a French designed sub. Periscope, torpedoes, sonar arrays, combat data and comm systems, etc.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
My gut feeling is the German offering...

They seem as a complete outsider to have 'run the best race' politically and we will not have quite the same ITARS / State Department issues with the German option as we will the French...

I can easily see the apparent lack of experience in international tenders coming back to bite the Japanese on the backside...

Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
none of their sales are to nations with similar operational requirements to australia
Neither did Sweden... ;)
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The first thing which comes to mind is the question, "you do know April 1st was over three weeks ago, right?"

A French selection is of course possible, but IMO would be the least likely choice, for several reasons.

There are/would be significant redesign issues/risks, in changing the propulsion and gen sets from nuclear to conventional/diesel-electric. With a French design selection, it would also introduce numerous and significant IP firewall issues, which would impact and increase the difficulty in fitting and integrating US sourced sensors, combat data systems, and munitions. To the point that it would likely be easier and cheaper to go all Euro-sourced systems for a French designed sub. Periscope, torpedoes, sonar arrays, combat data and comm systems, etc.
Not to mention the first of class Barracuda was laid down in 2007 .... And is now not likely to be launched until 2017. It was supposed to be in service by 2012.

So already late and needing major redesign. Smells like risk to me.
 

kaz

Member
I can easily see the apparent lack of experience in international tenders coming back to bite the Japanese on the backside...
IIRC, neither did Kockums decades ago on such a complex task of building a new class of Submarine in and for a country two oceans away.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
My gut feeling is the German offering...

They seem as a complete outsider to have 'run the best race' politically and we will not have quite the same ITARS / State Department issues with the German option as we will the French...

I can easily see the apparent lack of experience in international tenders coming back to bite the Japanese on the backside...
Got to agree with you here, the Japanese lack of playing the political game IMO will be its downfall but not the product. Hopefully the politicians may see a parallel between the genesis of Collins class and the offering from ThyssenKrupp being a submarine expanded from the Type 212 like the Collins was from the Västergötland class family of submarines.

have noticed the increase in PR in print and TV from ThyssenKrupp
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think it will be the Germans. They have run a tight race. They have been talking to people on the ground since before Collins. They hired all the key people right off the bat to run with. This isn't their first party. They have broad relevant experience to execute a project like this. They have been hammering price, capability, local build, low risk for years. Of anyone they are probably the only ones that can pitch an international submarine facility, which is the sort of stuff will get them home, local build content and local work. I think they have looked at what the RAN wants the most and tried very hard to meet that requirement (what they were burned on in Collins?). 60 Bunks, 10kt cruise with <20% indiscretion rate, lithium batteries, optional AIP with a 20 day endurance, multi-purpose lock for vertical launch weapons or personnel. To be honest they were the benchmark to beat.

The Japanese, while I think offering a very (the most?) compelling/complete out of the box platform, aren't quite ready to walk in and sort the shit out and provide a fool proof solution for the build. I think this has been too much of a learning experience (to beat the germans). I wouldn't rule out Australia and Japan sharing submarine technologies. I imagine this will be the silver lining for the Japanese if they weren't selected.

The french have been on their own planet a bit. But the proposal has compelling performance metrics, in a performance comparison they would score high (IMO from whats available). Risk, experience, costs would be weaknesses (IMO). The french fired pretty much their entire sub management team and started fresh about 12 months ago due to delays. But if you want a conventionally powered SSN that is pretty much what they are offering.

Arguably all 3 are offering the most amazing conventional submarine ever built. Which ever we choose I doubt the capabilities will be disappointing. Which is probably why there is a lot of pressure on low risk, on time builds.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
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IIRC, neither did Kockums decades ago on such a complex task of building a new class of Submarine in and for a country two oceans away.
yep, and thats been reinforced on lessons learnt everytime Collins comes up as a project to train people on......

lots of lessons learnt from Collins
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
The french have been on their own planet a bit. But the proposal has compelling performance metrics, in a performance comparison they would score high (IMO from whats available). Risk, experience, costs would be weaknesses (IMO). The french fired pretty much their entire sub management team and started fresh about 12 months ago due to delays. But if you want a conventionally powered SSN that is pretty much what they are offering.
Reminds me of the French guy caught smoking on a flight from Nice, France, to NY a number of years ago.

French smoker creates commotion on plane - CNN.com

His comment said it all, "Lebrun continued to verbally abuse individuals around him, yelling in substance 'I'm French, f*** you!'" according to the complaint.

A tad arrogant, yes???
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
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Germans then Japanese

What would I prefer in an ideal world without political influence?
Japanese
Germans

I wouldn't in a blue fit go anywhere near a french offering.
 

rockitten

Member
Germans then Japanese

What would I prefer in an ideal world without political influence?
Japanese
Germans

I wouldn't in a blue fit go anywhere near a french offering.
Am I okay to feel sad and sorrow to see option J doesn't won?

I have a gut feeling that the German package may ended up as another Tiger ARH project but too huge to fail.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Reminds me of the French guy caught smoking on a flight from Nice, France, to NY a number of years ago.

French smoker creates commotion on plane - CNN.com

His comment said it all, "Lebrun continued to verbally abuse individuals around him, yelling in substance 'I'm French, f*** you!'" according to the complaint.

A tad arrogant, yes???
I guess it depends on your view.

http://dcnsgroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/DCNS-SEA1000-Insert-FINAL_low-res.pdf

It is a magnificent, inspiring submarine which will remain state-of-the-art until the 2060s.

In adopting this technology, Australia will join an elite club which includes only the United Kingdom, the United States of America and France.
Seems short on substance, high on flare.
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
I guess it depends on your view.

http://dcnsgroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/DCNS-SEA1000-Insert-FINAL_low-res.pdf



Seems short on substance, high on flare.
It is high on flare (very high), feels like you are reading a sermon at a revival meeting.

Question is, will the rhetoric meet the reality? And that is a big question.

In a way it's a pity that the French (and Germans) don't have a boat (or close to the configuration) that is being offered to Australia, in the water and operational, but that's not the case.

Lots of plus and minus for all three contenders. I suspect, as others appear to being in saying too that the 'middle' option, the German boat, will win the competition.

I just hope that which ever option that is selected, Japanese, German or French, that they live up to the expectation and actually deliver on time and on budget too (possibly a pipe dream?).

At the end of the day, regardless of who wins or looses, if Australian industry wins or looses, the true winner is the RAN!
 

knightrider4

Active Member
It is high on flare (very high), feels like you are reading a sermon at a revival meeting.

Question is, will the rhetoric meet the reality? And that is a big question.

In a way it's a pity that the French (and Germans) don't have a boat (or close to the configuration) that is being offered to Australia, in the water and operational, but that's not the case.

Lots of plus and minus for all three contenders. I suspect, as others appear to being in saying too that the 'middle' option, the German boat, will win the competition.

I just hope that which ever option that is selected, Japanese, German or French, that they live up to the expectation and actually deliver on time and on budget too (possibly a pipe dream?).

At the end of the day, regardless of who wins or looses, if Australian industry wins or looses, the true winner is the RAN!
I'm with everyone else in that the French offer is extremely high risk and a worry that Lithium Ion batteries aren't on the table. But the decision makers have made questionable decisions in the past haven't they?
 

rockitten

Member
I just hope that which ever option that is selected, Japanese, German or French, that they live up to the expectation and actually deliver on time and on budget too (possibly a pipe dream?).

At the end of the day, regardless of who wins or looses, if Australian industry wins or looses, the true winner is the RAN!
At least RAN will have 12 no matter which option is chosen, that's a win for them.

I am more concern about how much our Yankee cousins willing to share their secrets if their preferred option (Japanese) is not chosen. Choosing option F will surely make us say-goodbye to some top secret US gears, but how about the German?

And how much German "willing to share" info with china really concerns me. After all, from diesel engine to AIP, they have sold so many submarine tech to china.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
It is high on flare (very high), feels like you are reading a sermon at a revival meeting.

Question is, will the rhetoric meet the reality? And that is a big question.
!
I think that statement pretty much sums up the French point of view on Sea1000. They thought we wanted an inspirational and magnificent err, large elephant to provide a nationalistic symbol. That we have joined the great powers. Or at least that how it looks like they tried to sell it.

I think there is a lot of mis-understanding about what we want and why. Just a bit unexpected that it would come out in the submissions.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Germans then Japanese

What would I prefer in an ideal world without political influence?
Japanese
Germans

I wouldn't in a blue fit go anywhere near a french offering.
Rear Admiral Johnson USN submariner heads the CEP and would have been most influential for defence before the NSC became involved.
I only hope the NSC respects the expertise which defence has chosen and has delivered to them for a decision.

I'm confident that Turnbull has enough business nouse to respect the advice.
On the downside, Turnbulls deep nvolvement with China may sway the decision to the euros so as not to irritate China.

It's still a two horse race, methinks only an ignoramus on defence procurement would choose the frogs.
 

kaz

Member
And how much German "willing to share" info with china really concerns me. After all, from diesel engine to AIP, they have sold so many submarine tech to china.
The contenders and contractors are as concerned about their prospective Australian partners leaking the sensitive submarine technology to third parties. It's a problem partially and typically solved through peddling so-called monkey and export-models instead of what's generally regarded as state of the art.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
At least RAN will have 12 no matter which option is chosen, that's a win for them.

I am more concern about how much our Yankee cousins willing to share their secrets if their preferred option (Japanese) is not chosen. Choosing option F will surely make us say-goodbye to some top secret US gears, but how about the German?

And how much German "willing to share" info with china really concerns me. After all, from diesel engine to AIP, they have sold so many submarine tech to china.
You are making some serious accusations here regarding the Germans. How about some reputable sources to back said claims up please. I really am quite interested.
 

the road runner

Active Member
My bet is the Japanese offering. If politics is involved id argue the Japanese offering shows , China that we will make a decision based on whats best for the country and the defense of Asia.

It shows the US we are serious about forming an alliance with its close ally Japan.

I have noticed all the adds about the German offering on TV and Youtube... to me it feels like the Germans are seen as the favorites but when(if) we choose Japan ,,,it will be a pleasant surprise.

Looking forward to the call , please NOT option F !
 
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