Part II
Now, if Vote Defence can be increased to 1.2% GDP in real terms, to put it around NZD$3 bil. that would be an increase of ~NZD$1.2 bil. beyond what current fund appears to be. I could do quite a bit with $1.2 bil. I will try to not make this look like a shopping list. Whether I succeed or not remains to be seen...
One of the things I would seek to do is expand the size of the NZDF, not just in terms of kit, but also personnel. With such a small defence force, that can mean very limited opportunities for personnel to advance, since there are so few slots. This has led to some Kiwis transferring to foreign forces like those of Australia, Canada, or the UK, because there is more room for growth. Expanding the size should lead to more slots at different levels, and therefore more places personnel can advance to. I would also increase the pay and benefits for personnel. This IMO should be done both to make the NZDF more attractive, especially to 'good' people, as well as to retain the experienced personnel it already has. At the same time I feel a change in the exit policy (this should be my last set of policy ideas) which makes it more difficult/less advantageous for personnel to leave the service prior to the end of their service commitment. Right now it seems as though NZDF personnel can leave the service almost as easily as changing jobs, should they find a better offer or position with a new company.
On a related note to expanding the size of the NZDF, I would also seek to increase some of the kit, which would be part of the reason for expanding the number of personnel.
This expansion can be broken down into several areas:
Naval Combat Forces: Expand the force to 4+ GP escorts. I have in mind large GP frigates able to conduct ASW, ASuW, and area air defence, all to a greater degree than the upgraded RNZN frigates will be able to. IMO VLS cells in sufficient quantity to support a number of ESSM-type SAM, as well as an ASROC-like capability, towed sonar arrray, plus AShM would all be required. My rational for 4+, is that for surface vessels the rule of threes applies. At any given time, one vessel will be undergoing some sort of maintenance, repairs, or upgrade, another will be in either a training cycle or recovery from a deployment, with the third either on or available for a deployment. Adding a fourth (or more) vessel into the mix should permit there to be one vessel away on a deployment, with one at home in or local/regional waters available to deploy. A surge capability can also exist at times where the vessel on a training or recovery cycle could also potentially be deployed as well. This should permit at least one, and potentially as many as three frigates to be deployed in the event of some incident or crisis.
My rational behind the level of armament, especially since I feel several things which the RNZN does not have would be required, is based off several limitations of the current and near-future Naval Combat Force. At present and into the near future, the anti-shipping capabilities of the frigates revolve around the 5"/127 mm gun, and the Penguin AShM carried by the new Seasprites. That IMO is insufficient for combating an opposing naval force that has surface vessels armed with AShM and/or anything more than VSHRAAD. The gun does not have over-the-horizon range, and the launching helicopter would likely be within range of any defending SAM's prior to getting within launch range of the Penguin. Adding in AShM could permit the RNZN to engage hostile shipping at much longer ranges than is currently possible. The new Sea Cepter missiles, while better than the old Sea Sparrow, IMO do not have the sort of range needed for anything other than self and very near air defence. With a max range of ~25 km, that does not reach the horizon (~29 km), that means the current frigates would need to be within visual contact of any ships being escorted for them to even fall within the air defence umbrella. With ESSM or a Sea Ceptor version of the CAMM-ER being developed, that would put the engagement range further out to 45+ km, which would be better IMO if the RNZN had to escort other vessels through areas threatened by hostile aircraft and/or AShM. The need for a towed sonar array should be apparent, given significant increase in tension in the areas bordering the SCS and ECS, as well as the dramatic increase in subs or orders for subs in these same areas. The reason behind the VLS and ASROC-like capability is the same. A naval helicopter might carry one or two LWT's, and IIRC the Mk 32 launchers each carry three LWT's, but if there is a hostile sub contact, more torpedoes might be needed in an area quickly.
Naval Patrol Forces: This I would also seek to effect some changes to. As is and has been discussed in the
RNZN thread I would eliminate the current IPV's since they add little to current defence capabilities, being too small to really operate well in some of the waters around NZ, yet too large (and requiring too large a crew) to operate as close inshore as apparently desired at times. On a related note, the max crew complement for the IPV's is apparently 36, of those 4 are gov't agency staff and a dozen supernumerary/trainee personnel. Having a 1:9 ratio, or 1:6 ratio without the trainees aboard, coupled with the plan to operate within 24 n miles of the NZ coastline, really makes it seem like the point of the IPV order was for the RNZN to provide a small boat capability to external gov't agencies, as opposed to providing much in terms of service to the RNZN. Also potentially worth noting, the seakeeping abilities of the IPV's are the same as the RAN's ACPB's, yet the intended area of operations for those was along Australia north coast and the northwest shelf, which I understand are usually milder than around many part of NZ, especially the southern portions of South Island.
I would look to expand the Patrol Forces capability up to ~4+ OPV-sized vessels, again to allow for training, refit/repairs, deployment and available for deployment. Me being me, I would look to introduce a newer, more capable design than the current OPV so that they could at least conduct anti-piracy patrols safely. I would also prefer some additional thought and options (like a magazine in the hangar for armed helicopter operations) be built into the design, so that if things really went to custard the OPV's could be modified and then tasked with some of the lower risk escort duties. By modified, I mean fitted with MCM kit, or Sea Ceptor for VSHRAAD, or a towed sonar array and some LWT launchers, etc. I would also likely delete the ice strengthening, since that inclusion in a design seems to really have a negative impact on a number of ship characteristics and I have to question just how much value there is for the RNZN to have three ice-strengthened ships. If things could be arranged, I would also like to then retire/sell the two current OPV's and replace them with the newer, improved OPV.
Aerial Surveillance: For this... Several things need to be improved IMO. The P-3K Orions need to regain an ASW capability, and then need to start rebuilding any/all atrophied skills. This is only for the short term. In the medium to long-term, I believe a two-tiered fixed-wing aerial maritime patrol capability is required. The top tier should be made up of at least 4 P-8 Poseidon's, a 1:1 replacement ratio for the Orions if feasible, and even more than 6 if possible. I have my doubts on that score. I would also advocate for 4-6 second tier MPA, something along the size and capabilities of the C-295MPA, or one of the armed MPA versions of the CN-235. These second tier aircraft could then cover most of the lower level maritime patrol activities which the P-3K Orions have been performing, but also be able to be kitted out to conduct ASW and ASuW operations if needed, either around NZ proper, or forward deployed alongside or in place of some of the P-8 Poseidons. On a side note to this, I would also recommend increasing the number of naval helicopters in service as well. This would allow more to be deployed operationally if/when RNZN vessels are deployed, as well as providing more aerial surveillance in and around NZ proper when operating from a land base.
Air Transport: The fixed-wing component clearly requires replacement, and rather quickly. Absent the release of the air transport review, it is hard to say what would be a good mix. I feel that greater numbers than the current 5+2 are needed, and that modifying civilian jetliners are not an efficient and effective method of airlift, but until more is known on the range/weight/volume requirements...
For rotary-wing airlift... while I am not a particular fan of the NH-90 (I feel that it was put into service before adequate development and prototyping had been done) I do feel that having a force of 8+1, is insufficient. Given the potentially very long supply change to Europe, and unless parts for the Australian MRH90 could be used in NZ NH90's, I would recommend getting an additional helicopter for spares. For lift purposes an 2-4 additional helicopters would seem sensible. I do understand than an expansion of 25%-50% might seem significant, but with so few operational airframes, an accident can cause major drop in capability. As things stand now, a single NH-90 is 12.5% of the NZDF rotary airlift. If HMNZS Canterbury were to deploy with a full helicopter load, that would be half of the NZDF's rotary airlift. With the danger of having some many proverbial eggs in a basket, the notion of getting more eggs appeals to me.
Sealift: I would have the NZDF get as much practice in amphibious operations as possible out of HMNZS Canterbury, then sell or otherwise get her out of RNZN service and replace her with a vessel deliberately designed for sealift and amphibious operations. Something with a well dock, and greater self-defence capabilities from both air and surface threats. Right now that 'A' position 25 mm Bushmaster gun does not provide much in terms of defence. Especially since the lack of a well dock and the restrictions on utilizing the side ramp would require the MRV to be in relatively sheltered/confined waters close to short. The sort of situation where smallcraft could easily close with Canterbury and cause damage. Or potentially land-based weaponry like heavy mortars, artillery, or even some vehicle main guns. As things stand now, the MRV is suitable for deployment on HADR operations, exercises, or amphibious landings in very benign situations. I am not advocating for the NZDF to acquire an opposed amphibious landing capability, but I do feel that the NZDF might be required to engage in amphibious operations in areas where not everyone is particularly friendly.
I have not really touched on Army or land-based capabilities, I will see if I can do that in a future Part III. I have a meeting/debriefing in about 5 hours, and I should really get some sleep beforehand.