Nagorniy Karabakh

[Feanor]

There's a major flare-up. Which is a nasty possibility. Given that they're stronger, and they're losing UAVs and helos over Armenia controlled territory, it looks like the Azeris are on the offensive. I'll make a detailed post later today.

ПонеÑлоÑÑŒ? - nortwolf_sam

EDIT: Those who don't know, Armenia and Azerbaijan are enemies over a piece of territory called Nagorniy Karabakh. It's a territory of ethnic Armenians that are part of Azerbaijan. They rebelled in the 90s and with Armenian help, drove out the Azeris. Since then the conflict has been frozen. Until now.

EDIT2: Bad to worse. The Azerbaijani ambassador in Moscow just said that since in the past 22 years no peaceful solution to the conflict has emerged, there must not be any, and a military solution is the only option.

Literally "22 года идут попытки мирного решения этого конфликта. Ну сколько же можно? Мы готовы к мирному решению вопроса. Но если не будет решаться мирным путем, то будем решать военным путем". He added that no negotiations are possible until Armenian troops "leave Azerbaijani soil". Meaning Nagorniy Karabakh. Shortly before this flareup there was a high level meeting between Azeri and Turkish officials. It should be noted that Azerbaijan has strong ties to Turkey and it's very likely that they are counting on Turkish support.

In addition to this it should be stated that there is a large Russian military base in Armenia, and Russian presence there was increased recently (gradually over the past 6 months), presumably in response to Turkish posturing. Armenia is also a member of the CSTO, which puts this particular treaty to the test (the CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzystan, and Tadjikistan.

http://newsru.com/world/02Apr2016/erdogankarabah.html

 

[GermanHerman]

Does CSTO affiliation of Armenia indicate that russia will have to respond militarily incase of a prologned military aggression of Azerbaijan?

I don't have any idea of the military strength of those two country but given the show of force russia pulled on Georgia I would assume that Azerbaijan, even with turkish backing, couldn't hope to have a chance against russia.

Makes me wonder what their game plan is.

What is your assessment on the propability of this escalating further? The loss of Tanks and Helicopters indicates heavy fighting.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Does CSTO affiliation of Armenia indicate that russia will have to respond militarily incase of a prologned military aggression of Azerbaijan?

Its another push issue for turkey and russia.

The cynic in me sees it as another opportunity for religious tension escalating with all the usual centrifugal effects and implications.

Turkey already has a historical fractious relationship with Armenia... so this won't get better

 

[Feanor]

As best as I can tell, Azerbaijan attacked along a number of points aimed at Nagorniy Karabakh, resulting in serious casualties. A counter-offensive of local militias and the Armenian military has pushed them out. One Azeri UAV seems to have fallen of its own accord, despite claims of shoot-down, and one helo is confirmed downed also. The Armenians claim 2 downed helos, 2 downed drones, and 8 destroyed tanks. The Azeris admit losing 1 helo, 1 tank, and 12 service members. The Azeris claim 100 dead, 6 tanks and 15 artillery pieces of destroyed. Karabakh says they lost 18 dead. In at least one instance MLRS fire appears to have hit a local school killing at least one child and wounding others.

The third link contains maps, but towards the bottom it has some extremely graphic material.

ОбоÑтрение в Карабахе - Colonel Cassad
Карабах 02.04.2016 - День - Colonel Cassad
Карабах 02.04.2016 - Вечер - Colonel Cassad

Armenia is moving Elbrus (Scud) missile systems into Nagorniy Karabakh, as well as long range Giatsint-B cannons. Tochka and Smerch MLRS are also reported, but unsubstantiated.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: Àðìåíèÿ ïåðåáðîñèëà â Êàðàáàõ òàêòè÷åñêèå ðàêåòû "Òî÷êà-Ó" è ÐÑÇÎ "Ñìåð÷"

Photos of the fallen UAV.

Сбитый азербайджанÑкий БЛР- bmpd

The US and Russia are both calling for a ceasefire.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ ïðèçâàëè ñòîðîíû êîíôëèêòà â Íàãîðíîì Êàðàáàõå íåìåäëåííî ïåðåéòè ê ïåðåãîâîðàì

 

[Feanor]

As best as I can tell, Azerbaijan attacked along a number of points aimed at Nagorniy Karabakh, resulting in serious casualties. A counter-offensive of local militias and the Armenian military has pushed them out. One Azeri UAV seems to have fallen of its own accord, despite claims of shoot-down, and one helo is confirmed downed also. The Armenians claim 2 downed helos, 2 downed drones, and 8 destroyed tanks. The Azeris admit losing 1 helo, 1 tank, and 12 service members. The Azeris claim 100 dead, 6 tanks and 15 artillery pieces of destroyed. Karabakh says they lost 18 dead. In at least one instance MLRS fire appears to have hit a local school killing at least one child and wounding others.

The third link contains maps, but towards the bottom it has some extremely graphic material.

ОбоÑтрение в Карабахе - Colonel Cassad
Карабах 02.04.2016 - День - Colonel Cassad
Карабах 02.04.2016 - Вечер - Colonel Cassad

Armenia is moving Elbrus (Scud) missile systems into Nagorniy Karabakh, as well as long range Giatsint-B cannons. Tochka and Smerch MLRS are also reported, but unsubstantiated.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: Àðìåíèÿ ïåðåáðîñèëà â Êàðàáàõ òàêòè÷åñêèå ðàêåòû "Òî÷êà-Ó" è ÐÑÇÎ "Ñìåð÷"

Photos of the fallen UAV.

Сбитый азербайджанÑкий БЛР- bmpd

The US and Russia are both calling for a ceasefire.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ ïðèçâàëè ñòîðîíû êîíôëèêòà â Íàãîðíîì Êàðàáàõå íåìåäëåííî ïåðåéòè ê ïåðåãîâîðàì

 

[gazzzwp]

Could the geographical restrictions deter Russia from getting involved? Looking at the map it would seem that Turkey again holds all of the aces. Would Iran lend assistance to Russia being an ally perhaps?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Could the geographical restrictions deter Russia from getting involved? Looking at the map it would seem that Turkey again holds all of the aces. Would Iran lend assistance to Russia being an ally perhaps?

caspian sea - hardly an impediment for the russians

 

[ngatimozart]

Could the geographical restrictions deter Russia from getting involved? Looking at the map it would seem that Turkey again holds all of the aces. Would Iran lend assistance to Russia being an ally perhaps?

This map shows the region in a wider context and as GF states the Russians would be able to use the Caspian Sea quite effectively.

 

[Feanor]

Could the geographical restrictions deter Russia from getting involved? Looking at the map it would seem that Turkey again holds all of the aces. Would Iran lend assistance to Russia being an ally perhaps?

caspian sea - hardly an impediment for the russians

Your comments make little sense. Please look at a map of the conflict. On the one hand, Nagorniy Karabakh has no sea borders. Mastery of the Caspian has little to do with being able to deploy troops directly to that conflict zone. On the other hand if we're talking about strikes against Azerbaijan proper, there's a huge land border between them and Russia. The Caspian could (and would) be used, but even if it couldn't it would hardly be an impediment. Not to mention there are Russian troops inside Armenia, and not a few of them.

http://gdb.rferl.org/1A9799F0-3057-4BE6-AA47-F08F61F95E84_mw1024_s_n.gif

Anyways, it seems the Azeri offensives have failed, or gained very little ground at best. The Azeris are saying the fighting is over, the Armenians are saying it's continuing. Either way, certainly no victory parade for Aliev.

Карабах 03.04.2016 - Утро - Colonel Cassad

There are a couple of thought here, about why now of all times. Starting with the Turkish desire to distract Russia with a conflict elsewhere, continuing to the fact that while oil prices are low now, Azerbaijan has had many years of high oil prices to prepare, and they're as ready as they ever will be (in the foreseeable future), while Armenia has had no such luck and has only recently (very recently) gotten a Russian credit line for weapons buys. 3 years from now, with low oil prices taking their toll, and Armenia benefiting from Russian military aid, the balance of power might be less favorable. At least on paper, Azerbaijan should be considerably more powerful. In practice, however, this doesn't seem to be the case. Part of it might be the complex terrain.

Hopefully this is the end of this flare up, though it may well not be. I'll post anything else that comes up.

EDIT: Azeri MoD declares unilateral cessation of hostilities, citing their love of peace.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/385148

Personally I think they recognize the failure of their attempt and the total lack of international support from anyone, save Turkey. The fighting was condemned by Russia, USA, NATO, and the UN. I'm more then anything surprised that Aliev would even try a stunt like this. Especially after the lessons of Georgia in '08, and his own careful and crafty foreign policy.

 

[SouthernSky]

Feanor

I'm getting malicious content warnings from the Colonel Cassad links you've posted. Have a look into it and remove if you think it's warranted.

 

[Toblerone]

Turkish president: We stand with Azerbaijan ‘to the end’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...1ee69e-f970-11e5-958d-d038dac6e718_story.html

"To the end" huh? Turkey as usual a factor for stabillity in everything they are embroiled in. A good NATO ally, keep emboldening them. Without their support, the Azers probably wouldn't try this at all.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Your comments make little sense. Please look at a map of the conflict. On the one hand, Nagorniy Karabakh has no sea borders. Mastery of the Caspian has little to do with being able to deploy troops directly to that conflict zone. On the other hand if we're talking about strikes against Azerbaijan proper, there's a huge land border between them and Russia. The Caspian could (and would) be used, but even if it couldn't it would hardly be an impediment. Not to mention there are Russian troops inside Armenia, and not a few of them.

???

am not saying that it is an impediment

there are numerous ways for the russians to insert troops if need be

 

[Feanor]

???

am not saying that it is an impediment

there are numerous ways for the russians to insert troops if need be

Sorry, I must be misunderstanding. What I was saying was that the Caspian could not have been an impediment even if Russia had no way of crossing it or using it to insert troops.

Turkish president: We stand with Azerbaijan ‘to the end’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...1ee69e-f970-11e5-958d-d038dac6e718_story.html

"To the end" huh? Turkey as usual a factor for stabillity in everything they are embroiled in. A good NATO ally, keep emboldening them. Without their support, the Azers probably wouldn't try this at all.

What else can he say? I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey gave Aliev the push in this direction, but at the same time it seems that despite investing into many many shiny toys, the Azeri military is still rather lackluster, and this incident demonstrated the state of affairs.

Feanor

I'm getting malicious content warnings from the Colonel Cassad links you've posted. Have a look into it and remove if you think it's warranted.

Strange. I'm not getting any. Which one specifically?

 

[Feanor]

Fighting continues, despite claims of ceasefire. An Azeri UAV was used as an improvised weapons platform to bomb a bus with Armenian reservists, killing 5, including two local government officials.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Åðåâàí çàÿâèë îá óíè÷òîæåíèè àçåðáàéäæàíñêèì áåñïèëîòíèêîì àâòîáóñà ñ äîáðîâîëüöàìè
БеÑпилотники-"камикадзе" - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Azerbaijan has deployed TOS-1A heavy flamethrowers, and Armenia claims one destroyed. The TOS-1A has been a favorite in Syria and Iraq as a powerful but indiscriminate weapon.

Gur Khan attacks!: ÐрмÑнÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ñ‚Ð¸Ð»Ð»ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ñ‡Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð»Ð° уÑтановки ТОС – 1Ð Ðзербайджана

Footage from the conflict. Note much of the materials are from the Armenian side. I'll try to find Azerbaijani materials too.

Карабах продолжает "размораживатьÑÑ"... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
Тем временем ÐО ÐКÐ*... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
ÐО ÐКÐ* in action... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

Georgia expressed support for the Azeris, while Erdogan predicted that Nagorniy Karabakh would soon be in Azeri hands.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãðóçèÿ âñòàëà íà ñòîðîíó Àçåðáàéäæàíà, êîòîðûé ïðèìåíèë òÿæåëûå îãíåìåòíûå ñèñòåìû â Êàðàáàõå
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýðäîãàí ïðåäñêàçàë âîçâðàùåíèå Íàãîðíîãî Êàðàáàõà "íàñòîÿùåìó õîçÿèíó" - Àçåðáàéäæàíó

Iranian MoD expressed support for the Azerbaijani position, and offered help in de-escalating the conflict. Some shells from artillery fire accidentally fell on Iranian territory but nobody was killed.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/4712782.html

And Azeribaijan promises a full scale operation if this conflict escalates. An interesting threat considering they're on the offensive.

http://newsru.com/world/04Apr2016/karabakh.html

 

[Feanor]

More events over the night. Armenia claims Smerch MLRS use by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan denies it, but claims the destruction of an Armenian base inside the NKR.

Карабах 05.04.2016 - День - Colonel Cassad

This link has an interesting map. The town of Mataghis seems to be the immediate objective of the Azeri offensive. They keep claiming they've captured it, though evidence is lacking. Armenian Su-25s have been deployed closer to the border.

Карабах 04.04.2016 - Вечер - Colonel Cassad

Escalation continues, as NKR (Nagorniy-Karabakh Republic) forces push the Azeri troops out of 3 strong points they took in the last offensive. This should restore the line of contact prior to this flareup, but the Azerbaijani military continues pushing, so this may change once again. They're claiming tank kills with Israeli Spike ATGMs.

"Ð*азморозка" конфликта продолжаетÑÑ... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
ÐКÐ*... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

I have to say that a lot of the info is very very sketchy. Don't take it as gospel.

EDIT: Confirmation of the use of Spike ATGMs to destroy Armenian tanks, and Harop UAVs that carry explosives, to be used as a kamikaze bomber.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1833545.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Harop

Azerbaijan admits to 31 dead in this conflict.

http://newsru.com/world/06Apr2016/karabahdead.html

 

[Mig-29M2]

The casualties from the April war are much higher than 31. The US State Department's report said around 400 in total.

 

[Feanor]

Armenia has just become the first export customer of the Iskander-E system. Official statements are lacking but the system turned out at parade practice in Armenia. This drastically increases Armenia's reach, and place pretty much all of the conflict one within it's reach.

ÐÑ€Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡Ð¸Ð»Ð° оперативно-тактичеÑкие ракетные комплекÑÑ‹ "ИÑкандер-Ð*" - bmpd

EDIT: Buk-M2 SAMs and Infauna EW systems also turned up in Armenia, thus revealing what they had spent their 200 mil credit line on.

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/83612/

 

[Mig-29M2]

The Iskanders Armenia got are M, not export version E. Unfortunately some websites are automatically writing E, considering that Armenia is an export customer without verification.
The missiles have been transferred from Russian Army stocks without going through Rossoboronexport.
Also, they are NOT part of the $200M loan, and neither are the Buk-M2s.

Exclusive video: Armenia's Iskander-M ballistic missiles and more

 

[Feanor]

The Iskanders Armenia got are M, not export version E. Unfortunately some websites are automatically writing E, considering that Armenia is an export customer without verification.
The missiles have been transferred from Russian Army stocks without going through Rossoboronexport.
Also, they are NOT part of the $200M loan, and neither are the Buk-M2s.

Exclusive video: Armenia's Iskander-M ballistic missiles and more

That would be illegal because they're ballistic missiles with ranges in excess of 300kms. It also raises questions about who paid for it. Sorry but we need a better source then that website for a claim of that nature.

 

[swerve]

Illegal? Has the MTCR been made binding? It's always been voluntary.