War Against ISIS

[gf0012-aust]

erdogans hate and public antipathy towards the Kurds is pretty common knowledge - it drives his actions to a very high degree.

the turks have some sensitive touchpoints - armenia and a kurdish state

(compounded by the fact that erdogan hates the kurds who publicly recognise what happened with respect to the massacre of albanians and assyrians as some of them were participants

IIRC the turkish govt gave amnesty and jail release to kurdish prisoners in ww1 if they participated in the attacks on the armenians and assyrians

 

[ngatimozart]

erdogans hate and public antipathy towards the Kurds is pretty common knowledge - it drives his actions to a very high degree.

the turks have some sensitive touchpoints - armenia and a kurdish state

(compounded by the fact that erdogan hates the kurds who publicly recognise what happened with respect to the massacre of albanians and assyrians as some of them were participants

IIRC the turkish govt gave amnesty and jail release to kurdish prisoners in ww1 if they participated in the attacks on the armenians and assyrians

Yes, Armenians, Kurds, Assyrians and Greeks in no particular order.

Erdogan has managed to circumvent the military protection of the secular state of Turkey by moving aside senior military personal who could thwart his ambition and plans for an Islamic state. Previously the military have preserved Atatürk's vision of a secular state by removing governments that were heading down the religious path. Atatürk had seen what had occurred in the Ottoman empire where the imams / mullahs had to great an influence and control on the ship of state. So what is Erdogans ultimate goal? Some claim an islamic state. Others a Lazarus of the Ottoman empire with him as Sultan Recep the First

My questions are how big is the mans ego and ambition? Is that ego and ambition going to drag his neighbours, the region, NATO, Russia and the world into a war that nobody wants and ultimately achieves the aim of Daesh?

 

[ZeonChar]

Pretty disturbing news, I'll try to find better English friendly links later... But seems like Turkey has completely mobilized "The First Army" on the Syrian border. Some 1,000 tanks, 75,000 infantry, artillery, ect. Videos, photos included of the mass mobilization.

http://www.pronews.gr/portal/201511...λάνα-από-την-μεταφορά-των-τουρκικών-m-60t-στα

ΤουÏκικά άÏματα μάχης μεταφέÏονται από τη ΘÏάκη στα σÏνοÏα με τη ΣυÏία – ΒΙÎΤΕΟ

Doğu ve Güneydoğu’ya tank sevkiyatı

Now, there are rumors the U.S. has pressured Turkey in closing off the border with ISIS. Though, this mobilization seems to be an invasion force. Also, they have have to go through PKK lines to hit ISIS within Syria. They could use this a pretext to cut YPG territory in divided parts, and prevent a "Future Kurdistan".
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CU4aXPeUAAATxhS.png

 

[Toblerone]

Those news sites are not dependable at all. Also, why would Turkey want to attack ISIS?

Occupuying turkmen territories I understand, attacking the kurds I understand. But not ISIS. We were just taking about their special relationship

 

[ZeonChar]

Those news sites are not dependable at all. Also, why would Turkey want to attack ISIS?

Occupuying turkmen territories I understand, attacking the kurds I understand. But not ISIS. We were just taking about their special relationship

They're pretty dependable. It's been confirmed by Turkish journalists of the build up, they're the ones who took the photos and videos. Greek News outlets were just the first Western ones to report . I must say, I am surprised by the Turkish rail system, they mobilized fast.

But yes, you have a point. It's speculation on what they will do at this point, but it would be a nice pre-text to rough up some kurds by "Attacking ISIS".

 

[gf0012-aust]

They're pretty dependable. It's been confirmed by Turkish journalists of the build up, they're the ones who took the photos and videos. Greek News outlets were just the first Western ones to report . I must say, I am surprised by the Turkish rail system, they mobilized fast.

This isn't their first rodeo

the Turks have placed divisions on the Syrian border 3-4 times over the last 5 years

They know how to get divisions in place quickly

 

[gazzzwp]

Sorry to ask the question again but I can't find the answer anywhere else.

RT are claiming that US air strikes have stopped since the S-400's arrived. Could this be true? Have Russia pushed the US out of the game?

Will Turkey now be defenseless against future Russian air incursions? What does this all mean? Have Russia now got the field to themselves?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Sorry to ask the question again but I can't find the answer anywhere else.

RT are claiming that US air strikes have stopped since the S-400's arrived. Could this be true? Have Russia pushed the US out of the game?

Will Turkey now be defenseless against future Russian air incursions? What does this all mean? Have Russia now got the field to themselves?

the russians have been advising the americans about their missions in advance - thats one of the things they've been pointing out to the turks

 

[Feanor]

Two different Krasukh-4s? Which one is it?

Krasukh-4 ( one big dish)

Russia using electronic warfare to cloak its actions in Syria from Isis and Nato

Krasukh-4 (3 smaller dishes)

Russian Electronic Warfare Systems Spotted in Syria | InSerbia News

The 3 smaller dishes on Kamaz trucks are Krasuha-4, the one larger on the BAZ truck is the Krasuha-2. They're different but similar systems.

Sorry to ask the question again but I can't find the answer anywhere else.

RT are claiming that US air strikes have stopped since the S-400's arrived. Could this be true? Have Russia pushed the US out of the game?

Will Turkey now be defenseless against future Russian air incursions? What does this all mean? Have Russia now got the field to themselves?

Turkey is certainly not defenseless. They can still shoot down Russian aircraft. The difference is that now they can not do so with impunity. They have to contend with the possibility of losing their own aircraft.

 

[barney41]

The Turkish Government recovered the body of the Russian pilot and turned it over to the Russian ambassador. So it seems the reports that both pilots had been killed was false.
Turkey recovers body of pilot from downed Russian jet | Reuters

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile, in a curious illustration, a Russian jet accidentally flew into Israeli controlled airspace over the Golan heights, for about 1 mile. He was contacted, and immediately turned around.

Шалом там, внизу. - Берлога Бронемедведа
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèé âîåííûé ñàìîëåò çàëåòåë â âîçäóøíîå ïðîñòðàíñòâî Èçðàèëÿ

Colonelcassad's latest update, a rebel counter-offensive has pushed the SAA off of the Aleppo-Damascus highway but they still hold both al-Eis and al-Hadr.

SAA offensives slowly continue to expand the area of control around Kuweiris.

North of Aleppo everyone is fighting everyone. ISIS and al-Qaeda, Kurds and "moderate" rebels, Russian airstrikes.... the situation is a total mess.

По Ñитуации под Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad

 

[ZeonChar]

North of Aleppo everyone is fighting everyone. ISIS and al-Qaeda, Kurds and "moderate" rebels, Russian airstrikes.... the situation is a total mess.

Al-Qaeda vs. Al-Qaeda as well, apparently there are so many different groups they're team killing each other. Seems everyone is turning on each other, Good for the SAA.

Well in midst of that debacle, the YPG is making more significant gains, capturing Mariameen. Apparently that's a vital supply point/stronghold.
YPG تأسر أربعة من مسلحي النصرة وأحرار الشام ÙÙŠ ري٠عÙرين - آرانيوز

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itGqGZXHkE0

New Syrian Adhoc unit called the "LDF" made up of Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian volunteers. They seem to be rather well equipped, and are heading to the South Aleppo front.
Meet the LDF, New Syria’s faction operating in Aleppo

 

[gazzzwp]

The 3 smaller dishes on Kamaz trucks are Krasuha-4, the one larger on the BAZ truck is the Krasuha-2. They're different but similar systems.



Turkey is certainly not defenseless. They can still shoot down Russian aircraft. The difference is that now they can not do so with impunity. They have to contend with the possibility of losing their own aircraft.

NATO are concerned about Russian EW technology.

One such example is Russian use of Electronic Warfare (EW). The October 22, 2015 Foreign Policy (FP) Situation Report states the head of the U.S. army Europe expressed “eye-watering” concerns over Russia’s use of the electronic spectrum in Ukraine. Mr. Putin, being the bully that he is, has been jamming everything possible from cellphones, to radio transmission, to drones.

The same is happening in Syria.

(Lt. General Ralph J. Jodice is a retired 3-star Air Force command pilot with more than 3,500 flight hours).

The gap does indeed appear to have closed and leaves NATO with a great deal of uncertainty about how to deal with what appears to be a more technologically advanced adversary.

The only good thing is that the allies have forces close by to monitor these gadgets for themselves to try and figure out counter measures.

 

[gf0012-aust]

NATO are concerned about Russian EW technology.

One such example is Russian use of Electronic Warfare (EW). The October 22, 2015 Foreign Policy (FP) Situation Report states the head of the U.S. army Europe expressed “eye-watering” concerns over Russia’s use of the electronic spectrum in Ukraine. Mr. Putin, being the bully that he is, has been jamming everything possible from cellphones, to radio transmission, to drones.

The same is happening in Syria.

(Lt. General Ralph J. Jodice is a retired 3-star Air Force command pilot with more than 3,500 flight hours).

The sites citing this aren't exactly reference standards that I'd use to support the issue in detail

that doesn't mean that its not an issue as the "west" has always had a healthy regard for the russians in some niche areas, principally missile tech, and EW - the two capabilities are by necessity incestuous

to some extent I would expect the russians (or any other hi-tech power) to be using the opportunity to field test existing and future systems as much as possible

considering the amount of sheer capability eared up in the region, it would be borderline irresponsible not to have a crack at it

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The Syrian Army has almost completed the encirclement of Salma. It seems the northern offensive now has priority. With the fall of Salma, the Syrians can attempt to close a significant portion of the border with Turkey. But this is no certainty. Recently the Syrians took mortar fire from the other side of the Turkish border, and this opens the frightening prospect that rebel fighters, who find sanctuary, training, and weapons in Turkey, won't be free to conduct cross border raids.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¸ взÑла ÑтратегичеÑкую выÑоту и окружает важный город | РИРÐовоÑти

The Tiger Force, an elite SAA unit, the one used to deblock Kuweiris, has seized the SAA Air Force academy south-west of Aleppo.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/19783/

There is information that work is being done on rebasing a massive number of Russian planes to the Sha'aryat airfield in Syria. Allegedly ~100 aircraft. If correct this means quadrupling the Russian effort there, and deploying thousands of additional personnel. The second link is the location of the base.

+ 100 - Военный Блог
https://www.google.ru/maps/place/مط...t!3m1!1s0x15231faaa74615a9:0xfc92b5de5e70f783

There is also information that, as per the joint air defense agreement with Armenia, thousands of Russian military personnel are being prepared for deployment there. They will have with them airspace control, EW/ELINT, and SAM assets, which makes sense, but will apparently also include a ground-forces component. As a reminder, Russia already has a military base in Armenia, with both air and ground troops there.

ÐовоÑти днÑ: СМИ: РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ñрочно ÑÑ‚Ñгивает Ñ‚Ñ‹ÑÑчи военных и технику к границе Турции и Ðрмении - 29.11.2015 - ÑÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ (Ñмотреть онлайн) | РоÑÑийÑÐ
СМИ: ТыÑÑчи роÑÑийÑких военных развёртываютÑÑ Ð½Ð° армÑно-турецкой границе

The Turkish Prime Minister said they will not be apologizing for the downed Su-24. Meanwhile the pilot's body is already on it's way to Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñàìîëåò ñ òåëîì êîìàíäèðà ñáèòîãî Ñó-24 âûëåòåë èç Òóðöèè â Ðîññèþ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Òóðöèè èñêëþ÷èë âîçìîæíîñòü ïðèíåñåíèÿ Àíêàðîé èçâèíåíèé çà ñáèòûé Ñó-24

Russia is ceasing all military-technical cooperation with Turkey. In the past Russia has sold weapons to Turkey, and bought a few components there, but the total numbers are relatively low.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ïðåêðàòèò âîåííî-òåõíè÷åñêîå ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî ñ Òóðöèåé, ñîîáùèë ïîìîùíèê Ïóòèíà
РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ñворачивает проекты в облаÑти ВТС Ñ Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ¹, Ð²ÐºÐ»ÑŽÑ‡Ð°Ñ Ð·Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ¿ÐºÑƒ Ð¾Ð¿Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð½ÑƒÐ¶Ð´ ВМФ - bmpd

Erdogan says he is ready to meet with Putin in the near future. There's a convenient UN climate conference in Paris, where he may be hoping to get some time. Even though Russia says, no meeting is planned.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýðäîãàí ãîòîâ âñòðåòèòüñÿ ñ Ïóòèíûì "â ñàìîå áëèæàéøåå âðåìÿ"
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí íàïðàâëÿåòñÿ â Ïàðèæ íà êîíôåðåíöèþ ÎÎÍ ïî êëèìàòó. Òàì æå áóäóò Ýðäîãàí è Îáàìà
ПеÑков: вÑтреча Путина и Эрдогана на Ñаммите в Париже не планируетÑÑ | РИРÐовоÑти

 

[Ranger25]

NATO are concerned about Russian EW technology.

One such example is Russian use of Electronic Warfare (EW). The October 22, 2015 Foreign Policy (FP) Situation Report states the head of the U.S. army Europe expressed “eye-watering” concerns over Russia’s use of the electronic spectrum in Ukraine. Mr. Putin, being the bully that he is, has been jamming everything possible from cellphones, to radio transmission, to drones.

The same is happening in Syria.

(Lt. General Ralph J. Jodice is a retired 3-star Air Force command pilot with more than 3,500 flight hours).

The gap does indeed appear to have closed and leaves NATO with a great deal of uncertainty about how to deal with what appears to be a more technologically advanced adversary.

The only good thing is that the allies have forces close by to monitor these gadgets for themselves to try and figure out counter measures.

Remember, this is also an opportunity for NATO/US to gather Intel on the tech.

Intel-ECCM

 

[Feanor]

Russian Su-34s have started flying strike missions with a set of air to air missiles, in one photo they have R-27 and R-73. That's the same load-out carried by the Su-30SM on CAP.

For a while now there have been many arguments about whether the Su-34 has full fledged air-to-air capability and is really a strike fighter, or has very limited air to air, and is really a tactical bomber.

 

[surpreme]

Remember, this is also an opportunity for NATO/US to gather Intel on the tech.

Intel-ECCM

This is like James Bond movies each other trying to get information on the other. This is a gold mine for the Russian and NATO in regards to the intel field. I'm surprise at the level of EW that the Russian have but don't think that NATO don't have this capability they do.

 

[wittmanace]

I see Putin has just said Turkey shot down the jet to protect its Isis oil:

Russia says Turkey 'shot down plane for IS oil' - BBC News

I'm guessing the comment isn't intended as an olive branch or a de-escalation.

I do however wonder what Russia will do. I get the feeling that sanctions and public comments etc aren't the full extent of the response, and that there will be something concrete and unambiguous in theatre coming soon. Or is it just me?

 

[thejackel]

I am following the thread for a while now and I would like to thank everyone for the very interesting discussion. I have the following questions:
- I was wondering which kind of Elint/ intelligence assets both sides have deployed (Russia and Nato)? Is there a kind of summary of this?
- How is the intelligence used? Just as a observation of each others capabilities or does the intelligence have direct influence on the ground war?
- Do the rebels have any form of intelligence / EW capabilities?