War Against ISIS

[Toblerone]

I'm worried that if the turkmen population is under great threat, turkish forces will invade to protect them. It would be a great ace in the turkish hand to have troops there, just imagine the implications and opportunities with the future of Syria and the kurds...

Maybe they want an escalation to justify that move. Now is the time, the russians don't have significant ground assets in Syria. If only some kind of civilian massacre can be orchestrated/presented as a valid pretext!

Don't forget that there are some turkish civilians fighting with the turkmens already. Why hasn't Erdogan seized this opportunity since 2011?

 

[barney41]

S-400s are on route to Syria and the Russians will fire them at any Turkish jets over Syrian airspace IMO and that will be Turkey's problem, not NATO's. Even the Turkish leader can figure this out so unless he is a real gambler I can't him taking the risk of bombing Assad's forces.

If that happened, it could quickly become a NATO problem as Turkey would surely respond and I can easily foresee the violence not being restricted to the Syrian side of the border.

 

[ZeonChar]

I'm worried that if the turkmen population is under great threat, turkish forces will invade to protect them. It would be a great ace in the turkish hand to have troops there, just imagine the implications and opportunities with the future of Syria and the kurds...

Maybe they want an escalation to justify that move. Now is the time, the russians don't have significant ground assets in Syria. If only some kind of civilian massacre can be orchestrated/presented as a valid pretext!

Don't forget that there are some turkish civilians fighting with the turkmens already. Why hasn't Erdogan seized this opportunity since 2011?

Erdogan didn't have to use Turkish troops in Syria, he has proxy groups there like the F.S.A, ect. doing the job on the ground. Plus, a Turkish incursion would be costly, and condemned harshly. NATO would not put up with that, and let Turkey go.

Though, you make a great point in this current circumstance. I just got more news, that the YPG is close to cutting off the main road out of Northern Aleppo with Russian Air Cover. Heh, that's pretty devastating to Turkey, and Rebels in that area. Since these supply lines are being quickly nullified, I think Turkey would need to respond within 48 hours at this rate.

They can respond in 3 ways, or combine these 3 ways:
1) Flood the border regions with fresh militants(They could easily do this, plenty of training camps within Turkey and recruits waiting).
2) Launch an air campaign on the Kurds and SAA.
3) Air campaign, and Turkish Incursion within at least 30-40 KM inside Syria to rebuff those supply points(That will work good, with "protecting Ethnic Turkmen) since they're not that deep in Syria.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian airstrikes have begun pounding northern Latakia, and (according to the Russian MoD) the SAA has taken control of the border crossing in that area (I would wait on confirmation for this). Nov 23-26, 134 sorties striking 449 targets.

The Russian military attache requested the voice recordings of the warnings Turkey allegedly gave the Russian jet, but was refused.

Сводка Минобороны - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Сводка Минобороны - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Arrival of S-400 launchers in Syria. Technically these are the same S-300 launchers, but the radar and command elements are supposedly S-400.

ХмеймимÑÐºÐ°Ñ "Ð*Ñ‹ÑÑŒ" - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
ЗÐ*К С-400 заÑтупил на боевое дежурÑтво по противовоздушной обороне на авиабазе Хмеймим - Юрий ЛÑмин

Turkish president and prime minister made statements about reducing tensions with Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåçèäåíò è ïðåìüåð Òóðöèè çàãîâîðèëè î ñíÿòèè íàïðÿæåííîñòè â îòíîøåíèÿõ ñ Ðîññèåé

Two journalists got arrested in Turkey for reporting on deliveries of weapons to ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Òóðöèè äâóõ æóðíàëèñòîâ àðåñòîâàëè çà ñòàòüþ î "ãîñïîñòàâêàõ" îðóæèÿ ñèðèéñêèì áîåâèêàì

Putin and Holland have reached some sort of agreement to avoid air strikes against groups fighting ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí è Îëëàíä äîãîâîðèëèñü èçáåãàòü óäàðîâ ïî ôîðìèðîâàíèÿì, êîòîðûå ãîòîâû áîðîòüñÿ ñ ÈÃ

 

[ngatimozart]

Update.

Russian airstrikes have begun pounding northern Turkey, and (according to the Russian MoD) the SAA has taken control of the border crossing in that area (I would wait on confirmation for this). Nov 23-26, 134 sorties striking 449 targets.

Is that a typo Feanor?

 

[shanes_world_05]

Is that a typo Feanor?

Is certainly gave me a moderate cardiac incident. I can't see anything on any other website or forum. But yeah has to be a typo.

Also any truth to Chinese advisors/observers in the mix?

 

[Feanor]

Is that a typo Feanor?

Yes, sorry. Lack of sleep...

 

[the concerned]

does the patriot missile system have the capability to intercept a s-400 missile

 

[Nick underscore]

Interesting view on Turkey's neighbouring sensitivities.

Bloomberg: Memo to Putin: Syria Is Turkey's Ukraine

Not sure I agree with certain assumptions, but the comparison has some validity.

Someone has misjudged the situation.

 

[John Fedup]

I think if that happens then the Turks most likely could kiss goodbye to NATO support and protection because there is no mandate from the UN, the Coalition or NATO to attack Assad's forces. If Erdogan does attack Assads forces then the Russians will be within their rights to give the Turks a bloody nose over Syria. I do hope that the Russians have sorted out some deal with the Kurds and that the Kurds do end up with Kurdistan, especially after the way they have been treated by Erdogan and historically by the Turks, Syrians and Iraqis. The Kurds have carried the fight to Daesh and have shed much blood in doing

I agree with your comment concerning NATO support. Can't understand why the US would sell F-35s to a loose cannon like Erdogan. What would the position of Russia's ally Iran regarding an independent Kurdistan?

 

[gf0012-aust]

turks have suspended air ops over syria

 

[ngatimozart]

Seems Syria is not the only country that the Turks have a habit of overflying. In 2014 they have committed 2244 violations of Greek airspace in the Aegean Sea around islands close to the Turkish coast. The previous year the violations were 636 having significantly jumped because of the Greek economic crisis and the funding shortage to the Greek Air Force resulting in it's response not being as vigorous as in previous times. Maybe the Greeks need to follow an example out of the Turkish playbook. Actually maybe it's about time that NATO reevaluated Turkish membership of the treaty because they are becoming a liability.

 

[Feanor]

Seems Syria is not the only country that the Turks have a habit of overflying. In 2014 they have committed 2244 violations of Greek airspace in the Aegean Sea around islands close to the Turkish coast. The previous year the violations were 636 having significantly jumped because of the Greek economic crisis and the funding shortage to the Greek Air Force resulting in it's response not being as vigorous as in previous times. Maybe the Greeks need to follow an example out of the Turkish playbook. Actually maybe it's about time that NATO reevaluated Turkish membership of the treaty because they are becoming a liability.

But remember, Erdogan said, a small violation like that can never be the reason for an attack.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Apparently Erdogan said that a Turkish plane shot down by Russia in Syrian airspace would be an act of aggression, and appropriate measures will be taken. Of course he then halted Turkish operations in Syrian airspace. So.

Ваувау... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

Along with the S-400 launchers, Russian military police arrive at Hmeimeem. The second link has a nice picture of the range ring on that S-400. The first circle is with regular munitions, the second is with the new long range missile.

ÐБ ЛатакиÑ: Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ñ…Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð° Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð¹ техники? - Берлога Бронемедведа
ÐœÐµÑ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð­Ñ€Ð´Ð¾Ð³Ð°Ð½Ð° - Colonel Cassad

Germany is deploying 6 Tornado recon planes in support of the French mission against ISIS.

И чуток бундеÑлюфтваффе - Берлога Бронемедведа

Syria says, the Turks shot down the Su-24 because Russia was bombing oil convoys that sold oil to a company run by Erdogan's son. Evidence, of course, is absent. Then again the journalists who tried to investigate Turkish weapon deliveries to ISIS were arrested for revealing state secrets.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ñèðèè ñ÷èòàþò, ÷òî Òóðöèÿ ñáèëà Ñó-24 çà áîìáåæêó íåôòåâîçîâ ñ íåôòüþ äëÿ ñûíà Ýðäîãàíà

Erdogan is requesting a meeting with Putin during the UN conference in Paris, but so far has not received a positive answer.

Personal comment: it must be really humiliating to be taken to school in that manner. I'm not sure what kind of Russian response Erdogan was hoping for, but to first go running to your NATO allies as if you're being attacked, to then get hit with economic sanctions, and go running to Russia to try and fix things, and be repeatedly denied.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Êðåìëå ïîäòâåðäèëè: Ýðäîãàí ïðîñèë î âñòðå÷å ñ Ïóòèíûì â Ïàðèæå

 

[gazzzwp]

S-400s are on route to Syria and the Russians will fire them at any Turkish jets over Syrian airspace IMO and that will be Turkey's problem, not NATO's. Even the Turkish leader can figure this out so unless he is a real gambler I can't him taking the risk of bombing Assad's forces.

Can you say how the system will differentiate between Russian and non-Russian aircraft? How vulnerable will other coalition aircraft be?

 

[Feanor]

Can you say how the system will differentiate between Russian and non-Russian aircraft? How vulnerable will other coalition aircraft be?

Well the IFF would be a big way to distinguish between Russian and non-Russian. But keeping in mind that we're dealing with US, Syrian, Russian, French, Germany, Turkish, and god knows who else (I'm having a hard time keeping track of who's still in the anti-ISIS coalition and who's pulled their stuff out) you raise a good point. Possibly someone more knowledgeable could answer this.

Also, with all the excitement over the downed jet, my usual sources are not writing about the situation on the ground. Except for the vague Russian claim that they've shut down the entire border with Turkey, in Latakia province, I have nothing. Does anyone have anything on it?

 

[barney41]

OK here's something interesting. The Russians claim to have rescued one of the pilots whom they presented to Russian reporters spouting the party line of events. Oddly and AFAIK we only get to see the back of his head so confirming his identity is problematic.

The rebels OTOH claim to have killed both pilots and are willing to return both bodies in a prìsoner swap.

Is Moscow trying to pull a fast one, presenting a "survivor" who can convenietly support the Russian narrative? Or are tnd rebels exagerrating their achjevement. Maybe a photo of both dead pilots may yet surface in the near future.



Syrian rebels 'shot dead Russian pilots as they descended in parachutes' | Middle East | News | The Independent

 

[Feanor]

OK here's something interesting. The Russians claim to have rescued one of the pilots whom they presented to Russian reporters spouting the party line of events. Oddly and AFAIK we only get to see the back of his head so confirming his identity is problematic.

The rebels OTOH claim to have killed both pilots and are willing to return both bodies in a prìsoner swap.

Is Moscow trying to pull a fast one, presenting a "survivor" who can convenietly support the Russian narrative? Or are tnd rebels exagerrating their achjevement. Maybe a photo of both dead pilots may yet surface in the near future.



Syrian rebels 'shot dead Russian pilots as they descended in parachutes' | Middle East | News | The Independent

It seems unlikely. The names of both pilots have been published, as part of awarding them with medals and orders. Their families would be hard to silence even in Russia. Relatives of Russian military personnel who died in Ukraine spoke out regularly, and I don't have information that anything happened to them as a result. There's also the fact that Murhatin is apparently a top pilot, well known, and one of the winners of Airdarts exercises. On the other hand, anything is possible. Note, the rebels have only posted photos of one dead pilot who is easily confirmed as Lt.Col. Peshkov. If they had two, why not post both? I'll see if I can get a photo from the front, post-shoot down.

Either way, I don't think they need a survivors story to support their narrative. They haven't been relying on it in their response, they haven't even really made any effort to prove their case. They're behaving as if everyone already knows that the Turks are in the wrong. And given the rather pathetic figure Erdogan has recently cut, I have a sneaking suspicion that others do know, and it's simply a dirty little secret that nobody will talk about.

 

[ZeonChar]

2nd Coastal Division Turkmen Fighters have launched a counter offensive in Latakia, apparently one Mount was captured.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

Does anyone have any info or corroborating evidence to this? There were no relevant links in the article.


"When the Russians deployed their forces to Syria they also deployed some new stealth technology. So far as I know they’ve only used this technology in Syria twice, once during their first sortie and one other time when some Israeli Air Force jets entered what they knew was Russian operational airspace.

As noted, the first use of this stealth technology was during the first Russian sortie. In accordance with protocols agreed to beforehand with Israel and the US, the Russians informed the US of their intent to launch a sortie. They did so an hour prior to the launch. When they did they also employed a new stealth technology. The technology effectively blinded both the US and Israel. None of the radars worked and most, if not all, satellite coverage was lost or compromised as well. But there’s more.

About a week after Putin’s UN General Assembly address the Israelis launched a sortie into Syria which flew into airspace that was under Russian operational control. Russian air controllers warned the Israelis that they had violated Russian controlled airspace. When the Israelis ignored the Russian air controllers, the stealth technology was employed a second time. The Israeli aircraft are equipped with two radars, one for fire acquisition and the other for fire control. Both are advanced and employ frequency-skipping technology to avoid being jammed. Both radars were effectively jammed. These aircraft have multiple telemetry data-links to their base. These were shut down. The only communications channel left was the high-frequency AM band normally used by civilian air traffic controllers. After the stealth technology was turned on and it was clear to the Russians that the Israelis knew they had been shut down, the Russian air traffic controllers used this AM band to tell the Israelis to scram. The Israelis complied.

Whatever this technology is, it’s a game changer and I’m certain that breaking this technology has been given an extremely high priority.

So why did Turkey shoot down the Russian jet?

I suspect somebody wants the Russians to start using this stealth technology more often, often enough for its weaknesses to be exposed. Shooting down that Russian jet might just get the Russians motivated to do that."




Guest Column From George Abert, Formerly Of Air Force Intelligence - PaulCraigRoberts.org