War Against ISIS

Interesting updates there Feanor.

I was wondering when the Kuznetsov was going to deploy to eastern Med, for Syrian Air Ops. Ideal for increased CAW mission tempo & tactics.

Not sure if this deployment is tied to the political 'optics' relating to the tragic MetroJet crash.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting updates there Feanor.

I was wondering when the Kuznetsov was going to deploy to eastern Med, for Syrian Air Ops. Ideal for increased CAW mission tempo & tactics.

Not sure if this deployment is tied to the political 'optics' relating to the tragic MetroJet crash.
The deployment would have had to have been in the works for longer then that. I'm not sure if the crash would have an impact on these sorts of decisions. If it deploys it will likely be carrying only a partial air group, maybe just 1x4 Su-33s and 1x4 MiG-29Ks. Maybe slightly more. The point would be to demonstrate the capability, rather then contribute on a practical level. Realistically there doesn't seem to be much there to stop Russia from flying more Su-34s or 24s or 25s into Syria. They've chosen to prioritize a different kind of commitment (SpetzNaz and artillery). So I don't think the purpose would be to increase strike missions. They're actually increasing them quite a lot with the current air group.
 
I agree on your points.

It was only a matter of time before the Kuznetsov Grp deployed to the Syrian AO. My comments maybe should have been clearer. Do you think the timetable for deployment moved up, since the crash?

Either way, domesitc TV (and CNN) love re-rolling footage of carrier & cruise launches..

Cheers
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I agree on your points.

It was only a matter of time before the Kuznetsov Grp deployed to the Syrian AO. My comments maybe should have been clearer. Do you think the timetable for deployment moved up, since the crash?

Either way, domesitc TV (and CNN) love re-rolling footage of carrier & cruise launches..

Cheers
It's not even certain that they will deploy, but there are indicators that they may. It would be a combat debut for the MiG-29K, as well as the Kuznetsov, and a great chance to show off a capability Russia has never really had before. It remains to be seen whether they will take the risk, or do a safer first sea deployment, to a training area close to home, or even maybe somewhere in international waters but away from combat.
 

the concerned

Active Member
I was wondering do Russia's large bombers have a precision bombing capability if so will we see them contributing to the fight as they can loiter for longer and strike multiple targets.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I was wondering do Russia's large bombers have a precision bombing capability if so will we see them contributing to the fight as they can loiter for longer and strike multiple targets.
They do not, and we are unlikely to see them in action. The only semi-exception is the Tu-22M3s that were upgraded with the SVP-24. Technically not PGM capability, but a massive improvement, with accuracy similar to the Su-24s being used in Syria right now.

There are two ongoing programs. One is to expand the Tu-95MS fleet to carry certain (unspecified) new types of munitions. This just started, and it may mean setting them up for the new Kh-101/102 family, which would make them carriers of new conventional and nuclear cruise missiles. The second is the Tu-22M3M program, designed to add precision strike capabilities to the Tu-22M3 fleet. But the latter is moving at a snails pace. It seems they've run into quite a few difficulties.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

On the ground, there is now less then 2 kms between the Syrian Army, and the Kuweiris airbase, with only one town between them (Kuweiris Sharqi) where the decisive battle will be fought, to restore access to that base.

They've also managed to push ISIS back, retaking some of the ground they lost to ISIS in October around Nasiria and Al-Safeera. They've retaken Djabul.

The Syrian Army is also continuing to push south-west of Aleppo, moving to encircle the town of Al-Hadr. They're also slowly moving to encircle Qarassi. Hezbollah has been actively employed in the area.

In Latakia area Gmam has finally fallen after much bitter fighting, but given the cost in resources and time, it's a Pyrrhic victory. Considerable Russian air and artillery support was allegedly involved.

Meanwhile the rebels have counter-attacked out of Hama, pushing the SAA back some. Russian air support in that area is lacking, and the SAA units there appear to be depleted.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2468102.html

Russian air strikes continue, over Nov 4-5 they have 81 sorties striking 263 targets, and setting a new high for targets struck (average 131.5/day). They rolled back a little over Nov 6-9, fltying 137 sorties, and striking 448 targets. Reportedly, they've started relying more heavily on intel from the Syrian Army, and allegedly from some of the rebel groups (though I question the latter).

Снижение интенÑивноÑти дейÑтвий ВКС Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd
Продолжение дейÑтвий ВКС Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd

Msta-B howitzers firing in Syria. These are likely Russian Marines from the 810th Brigade.

СириÑ. ÐœÑта-Б в бою. - Юрий ЛÑмин

Syrian Gazelle helos, still in action.

СирийÑкие "Газели" на авиабазе в ДамаÑке - Юрий ЛÑмин

ERA tiles installed on Syrian T-72M1s. Clearly this is a retrofit done in less then ideal conditions. The ERA tiles could be K-5, but they could also be K-1. A much needed upgrade, with a fairly haphazard look to the tile arrangement. I wonder if similar work will be done on their T-55 and 62 fleet.

Gur Khan attacks!: СирийÑкие танки Т-72 Ñнова Ñтали получать динамичеÑкую защиту

There's some suggestion that Russian Il-76s may be involved in ferrying Shiite militias from Iraq to Syria, to participate in the defense of Damascus.

ВВС Ð*оÑÑии перевозÑÑ‚ иракÑких шиитов в Сирию? - mikael655

Russia is considering restricting air travel with other countries as well, due to safety concerns.

http://newsru.com/russia/10nov2015/govplan.html

ISIS has mass executed 200 children. Warning, link contains extremely graphic video.

http://ren.tv/novosti/2015-11-09/video-ubiystva-200-detey-vylozhili-v-set-boeviki-igil-18
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
While this makes the news slightly less gruesome, it doesn't take away from how awful ISIS is. And they've not only killed children in the past, but there are reports of attempts to draft portions of the population including children to fight.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Quick update.

Tochka missiles are being used in Syria again. There was a significant cessation of their use earlier, and it's likely that the resumption indicates Russian deliveries of rockets. Given the massive withdrawal from service of Russian Tochka and Tochka-U missiles and launchers, even the launchers could have been delivered.

Análisis Militares: Misiles Tochka en Siria

An ISIS cell leader was killed in the Russian town of Nal'chik. The problem of course is that with Russia not being too picky about who is labeled as ISIS, it's not clear whether ISIS has a real network within Russia that is now being hunted, or whether Russia is dealing with the same terrorists it was in the past and has simply re-labeled them.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Íàëü÷èêå ñèëîâèêè ëèêâèäèðîâàëè ãëàâàðÿ ìåñòíîé ÿ÷åéêè ÈÃ

MBD3-U6-68 bomb racks have been spotted on Su-24Ms in Syria. This gives them the ability to carry many more lower-payload munitions. With the improved accuracy provided by the SVP-24, it may be possible to use smaller munitions to strike the same types of targets with identical effect, therefore easier to strike multiple targets per sortie.

Análisis Militares: Identificando equipos en las aeronaves rusas en Siria: el rack MBD3-U6-68

There is information that the Syrian air force has stepped up activity, specifically claiming 98 sorties over Nov 5-8th. While this number requires some substantiation and may be fictional, they have been flying more recently, likely to support their offensive operations.

????????? ???????? ?? ??? ??? ????????? ????? 100 ??????? - ?????????
 

the concerned

Active Member
Would it be possible foe the Russian's to deploy their cv and use as a assault carrier deploying assault helicopters which would be more useful than a handful of extra fighters.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
I see the SAA has successfully lifted the siege according to the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34781225

Regarding the kuznetsov just deploying with choppers like that....its fantasy land stuff straight out of a comic. The carrier isn't just a ship with a flat deck that can be just used for whatever when needed. I'm not sure why they would even want the above suggestion.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I see the SAA has successfully lifted the siege according to the BBC.

Syria conflict: Army 'breaks IS siege of Kuwairis airbase' - BBC News

Regarding the kuznetsov just deploying with choppers like that....its fantasy land stuff straight out of a comic. The carrier isn't just a ship with a flat deck that can be just used for whatever when needed. I'm not sure why they would even want the above suggestion.
On my smart phone so linking isn't easy, but the US have used a Nimitz class carrier to deploy large numbers of US Army Blackhawks and infantry. I believe this was for the intervention in Haiti but need check once I have time.

A large carrier actually makes for an excellent forward operating base, its more a question of whether it can be spared from its usual deployment cycle to cover the contingency. I suppose this is why the US is ingesting in sea basing, so as to find an affordable way to get the same effect.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Would it be possible foe the Russian's to deploy their cv and use as a assault carrier deploying assault helicopters which would be more useful than a handful of extra fighters.
Honestly, I don't see why they can't just deploy the helos on the ground... they have multiple airbases they can use. And at least in theory it would provide an excellent chance to the use Mi-28s and Ka-52s in combat. Now the shortage of Vikhr ATGMs might make the Ka-52 undesirable, but the Mi-28 doesn't have that problem. Not to mention that they don't seem to be using very many ATGMs there. Most of the footage shows them firing off S-8 blocks.
 

Kantervo

New Member
As far as I understand the US special forces will provide training to the FSA, but are there any estimates how long will it take them to execute this task? How many units can a team of 50 green berets train? I think that their main task is to prepare an attack on Al-Raqqah, because right now the opposition groups are not ready to assault the 'capital' of Islamic State. But they are near. The Russian air forces conducted air strikes on al-Raqqa recently and some news sources say that they were effective. Is an assault on al-Raqqa possible in the nearest future and how will it affect the ISIS? IMO only coordination among the opposition forces, the Syrian army and Russians will make such an attempt successful. Some opposition groups have already showed their readiness to cooperate and it is a good sign. Considering that the US also declared an intention to boost the intensity of airstrikes in Syria makes me think that it won't take long to 'clear' the provinces which are now controlled by ISIS.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As far as I understand the US special forces will provide training to the FSA, but are there any estimates how long will it take them to execute this task? How many units can a team of 50 green berets train? I think that their main task is to prepare an attack on Al-Raqqah, because right now the opposition groups are not ready to assault the 'capital' of Islamic State. But they are near. The Russian air forces conducted air strikes on al-Raqqa recently and some news sources say that they were effective. Is an assault on al-Raqqa possible in the nearest future and how will it affect the ISIS? IMO only coordination among the opposition forces, the Syrian army and Russians will make such an attempt successful. Some opposition groups have already showed their readiness to cooperate and it is a good sign. Considering that the US also declared an intention to boost the intensity of airstrikes in Syria makes me think that it won't take long to 'clear' the provinces which are now controlled by ISIS.
The Kurds made some noise about an offensive on Raqqa, but they're only making local pushes.

EDIT: After re-reading your post, I realized I missed some things. It will definitely take a while to properly clear those provinces. Note how slow and painful the Syrian offensive is, both in terms of ground gained, and in terms of men and material expended. And this is with a convoys of Russian supplies, Russian air strikes, and direct military involvement from Iran.
 
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wittmanace

Active Member
On my smart phone so linking isn't easy, but the US have used a Nimitz class carrier to deploy large numbers of US Army Blackhawks and infantry. I believe this was for the intervention in Haiti but need check once I have time.

A large carrier actually makes for an excellent forward operating base, its more a question of whether it can be spared from its usual deployment cycle to cover the contingency. I suppose this is why the US is ingesting in sea basing, so as to find an affordable way to get the same effect.
The differences between the Nimitz and the Kuznetsov are quite sibstantial, as are their roles and, critically, their operators. Russia sending the kuznetsov without planes but helicopters on its deck, and infantry in the hangars is just not going to happen. I think if one takes it as Nimitz being a carrier and kuznetsov being a carrier and therefore there the Russians might do so is entirely implausible. The kuznetsov isn't something that fits into that category of a typical large carrier, at any rate.

I would add that missions in Haitia for America are vastly removed from Russian operations in Syria. I actually can't think of any similarities at all.

Why would Russia want to do so? Lose the kuznetsov for any other tasks or roles, the PR weary Russians would also publicly point to a gap in their capabilities as well as a reminder of the downside of the Mistral deal not going through etc. Why not just use the bases they have? What is gained?

The above aren't criticisms of you, and I make this explicit given the tone of some other posters (warned and banned, etc) in recent times in this thread. Friendly debate is all.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kuweiris has been deblockaded. While the lifeline to the airbase is thing, Syrian troops are pushing east to expand the corridor.

Деблокирование ÑирийÑкой авиабазы ÐšÐ²ÐµÐ¹Ñ€Ð°Ñ Ðº воÑтоку от Ðлеппо - bmpd

There's information coming on on a major Kurdish offensive in northern Iraq.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êóðäû íà÷àëè ìàñøòàáíîå íàñòóïëåíèå íà ïîçèöèè Èà íà ñåâåðå Èðàêà

Победа под КувейриÑом - Colonel Cassad
Блокада КувейриÑа прорвана - Colonel Cassad

Russian air strikes continue Nov 9-10th, flying 85 sorties and striking 277 targets. This averages at 138.5/day.

Продолжение операции ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd

According to bellingcat, October has seen a huge spike ATGM activity from the rebel side. While they conclude that this is evidence of overwhelming increase in aid to the rebels, it should be noted that this may also be in large part due to the offensive launched by the Syrian military in the past month. While it's realistically the case that the Saudis and Turks have stepped up support to the rebels, it's likely that many groups stockpiles of munitions are running low after the intense fighting, and the fact that the SAA has made significant (if slow and painful) progress is evidence of that.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...st-opposition-missile-activity-of-entire-war/

Reuters released information on allegedly Russia's leaked Syria plan for political resolution of the conflict. I'll translate in brief.

1) Make ISIS a terrorist organization in the UN.
2) Agree on additional groups to be added to the list.
3) Pass a Security Council resolution on international anti-terrorist efforts to serve as a framework for future efforts of this kind.
4) Block trade channels for ISIS, especially oil.
5) Ceasefire agreements in Syria should exclude ISIS and other terrorist groups (likely a nod to al-Nusra and Co. - Feanor)
6) Begin a political process in Geneva between a coalition of opposition groups and Assad. Only secular and democracy-oriented opposition groups should be included.
7) Encourage the two sides to agree to the following:
-a constitutional reform process lasting 18 months, and guaranteeing all ethnic and religious groups a balance of power and responsibility in government
-a new and all-inclusive constitutional committee
-the constitution must be approved by popular referendum
-the spring 2016 parliamentary elections to be delayed and held at the same time as the constitutional referendum
-a Syrian government to be formed based on the results of the parliamentary elections by the party/bloc with the greatest number of votes
-a direct-elected Syrian president to serve as the chief executive and supreme commander of armed forces

8) Create a support of Syria group to help prepare the conference and aid the two sides in the negotiation process. The group might include the 5 permanent Security council seats, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Lebanon, Germany, Italy, a special UN representative, an Arab League representative and an EU representative.

РоÑÑийÑкие Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½[/rl]

Russia is considering banning flights to Turkey and Tunis as well. While Tunis is understandable from a safety stand point, Turkey seems to be intentionally designed to punish the Turks for their recent unfriendly stance.

[url=http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2471464.html]Запретить летать в Турцию и Ð¢ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
The differences between the Nimitz and the Kuznetsov are quite sibstantial, as are their roles and, critically, their operators. Russia sending the kuznetsov without planes but helicopters on its deck, and infantry in the hangars is just not going to happen. I think if one takes it as Nimitz being a carrier and kuznetsov being a carrier and therefore there the Russians might do so is entirely implausible. The kuznetsov isn't something that fits into that category of a typical large carrier, at any rate.

I would add that missions in Haitia for America are vastly removed from Russian operations in Syria. I actually can't think of any similarities at all.

Why would Russia want to do so? Lose the kuznetsov for any other tasks or roles, the PR weary Russians would also publicly point to a gap in their capabilities as well as a reminder of the downside of the Mistral deal not going through etc. Why not just use the bases they have? What is gained?

The above aren't criticisms of you, and I make this explicit given the tone of some other posters (warned and banned, etc) in recent times in this thread. Friendly debate is all.
Agreed about the Kuznetsov. I see no reason to deploy it with aircraft or helos. Limited capabilities, maintainence nightmare. Any PR gained would be outweighed by the economic costs vs simply using land based assets already in place
 
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