War Against ISIS

[GermanHerman]

That Obama and Netinyahu and not close and the Obama administration has done severe damage to the US/Israeli relationship

Wait, how is it the fault of the Obama administration that Israel is behaving like a spoiled child?

Interesting how we are not hearing about meetings between the US and Israel.

Of all the concerns with this unholy mess I would think the dangers to Israel from Russian and Iranian presence would be uppermost.

What can we read into this?

I think we can read into this that Israel has nuclear weapons and does not at all feel afraid from russia. What would be the russian objective here?

“There is an incongruency between what president [Vladimir] Putin is saying and what his forces are doing,” said Lt. Gen. Robert Otto, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. “One of the things we’re asking is, ‘Well, what are Putin’s intentions?’ His stated intentions and what I saw in airstrikes yesterday are not congruent.”

Russia, a long time ally of the Bashar al-Assad regime, has indicated that it intends to enter the fight against the Islamic State by providing air support for Syrian forces. However, U.S. leaders have questioned that assertion and believe Russia may target other Syrian rebels.

Otto reviewed unclassified imagery of airstrikes conducted Sept. 30 and that based on his assessment they were “not anti-ISIS strikes, he said during an Oct. 1 breakfast meeting with defense reporters in Washington, D.C.

Russian warplanes, like the SU-30, have been dropping “dumb bombs” over Syria, he said.


Russia Not Striking Islamic State Targets, Air Force Official Says - Blog

Would that be the same Air Force that just bombed a Hospital and killed nine doctors in Afghanistan?

This is getting rediculous.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor it does play I just tried it. Try Chrome browser perhaps?

Are Russia targeting ISIL now to deflect international criticism? One never knows where Russian tactics are concerned.

It's far more likely that ISIS was on the list of targets all along, just not the highest priority target. There is relatively little criticism of Russian actions right now (compared to say the war in Ukraine). Their main goal seems to be to help the Syrians lift the sieges of Homs and Aleppo, as well as assisting the Syrians in pushing the rebels out of the mountains north-east of Latakia.

I think we can read into this that Israel has nuclear weapons and does not at all feel afraid from russia. What would be the russian objective here?

There are high level contacts between Russia and Israel on many key issues. I wouldn't be surprised if Syria is in the loop about Russian plans, at least on some level.

 

[barney41]

Interesting how we are not hearing about meetings between the US and Israel.

Of all the concerns with this unholy mess I would think the dangers to Israel from Russian and Iranian presence would be uppermost.

What can we read into this?

I think we can read into this that sensitive discussions and consultations are often best kept out of the public view.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A big statement issued by Russia says they've flown over 60 sorties, striking over 50 targets.

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An Su-24M landing, while repairs are being done to the landing strip at Hmeimeem. Su-30SMs are flying combat air patrols, potentially to protect Russian ground-attack air craft.

Война и ÑтроительÑтво - Военный Блог
30-ые вернулиÑÑŒ Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Syrian MiG23BNs are also participating in the air strikes.

При поддержке Ñоюзных Ñил - Военный Блог

The relatively new KAB-250 satellite guided bomb is being used in Syria. KAB-500S bombs are being used too, as are bunker-busting bombs.

«ВКС Ð*Ф иÑпользуют в Сирии новейшие бомбы КÐБ-250 Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ по ГЛОÐÐСС» в блоге «ÐвиациÑ» - Сделано у наÑ
СириÑ: Ñводка, форма, перекреÑтие - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Syrian Human Rights Council says 40 civilians have died from Russian air strikes. Western media suggests that Russia bombed an FSA hospital.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðàâîçàùèòíèêè: îò ðîññèéñêèõ áîìáåæåê ïîãèáëè ïî÷òè 40 ìèðíûõ ñèðèéöåâ
http://www.newsru.com/world/03oct2015/hama.html

Video of 13th division, a recipient of US TOW missiles after a Russian air strikes.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2863774.html

Meanwhile Russia says they've been confirming their air strikes targets with the US, and have US confirmation that they were indeed terrorist targets.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÐÔ óâåäîìëÿëà ÑØÀ îá óäàðàõ â Ñèðèè, òàì ïîäòâåðäèëè íàëè÷èå òåððîðèñòîâ

More footage from Latakia air base.

Ð*епортаж журналиÑтов КП Ñ ÐБ Ð›Ð°Ñ‚Ð°ÐºÐ¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа

The British AWM sniper rifles found in Syria were likely supplied by Russia.

Oryx Blog: British Accuracy International AWM sniper rifles in Syria, From Russia with Love?

Interesting footage of ISIS burning cigarettes, teaching school, holding religious ceremonies. These are instruments of state-building.

Ðовый порÑдок ISIS - Военный Блог

Massive unrest in Baghdad.

Ð’ Багдаде неÑпокойно - Военный Блог

 

[gf0012-aust]

how about we stick to the topic and try to avoid meandering around the periphery with other geo-strategic/political issues

 

[alexkvaskov]

Feanor, to your post with the Syrian T-55 and BMP-1. I can only imagine how much older Soviet equipment from storage Russia has burned up in Syria. Do you have any details on this? It was rumoured Syria received the modern BTR-80/2s; my question is whether the majority of Russian equipment supplied to Syria comes from Soviet stockpiles or is newly minted by Russian arms makers.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor, to your post with the Syrian T-55 and BMP-1. I can only imagine how much older Soviet equipment from storage Russia has burned up in Syria. Do you have any details on this? It was rumoured Syria received the modern BTR-80/2s; my question is whether the majority of Russian equipment supplied to Syria comes from Soviet stockpiles or is newly minted by Russian arms makers.

It's hard to say. I suspect that the BTR-82As were not handed over to the Syrians, but instead are part of the Russian deployment there. Russia has delivered considerable quantities of new small arms and specialized weapons, but most of the bigger gear we know they handed over (BM-27s and 30s, the UR-77s) are old.

 

[A.V. Berg]

Someone with greater insight might be able to clarify:

ak-12.livejournal.com mentions a deficit of OFAB 250-270 bombs and, as evidence, provides a photo of a very lightly loaded Su 24 taking off in Latakia.

I would have thought that there should be plenty of them in Soviet era stocks. Neither would they take up that much room in the 'Syrian Express.'

If this is really the case, maybe there is some truth in US suggesting undue use of unguided munitions?

 

[Feanor]

Someone with greater insight might be able to clarify:

ak-12.livejournal.com mentions a deficit of OFAB 250-270 bombs and, as evidence, provides a photo of a very lightly loaded Su 24 taking off in Latakia.

I would have thought that there should be plenty of them in Soviet era stocks. Neither would they take up that much room in the 'Syrian Express.'

If this is really the case, maybe there is some truth in US suggesting undue use of unguided munitions?

I don't know about undue, but they're using unguided munitions left and right. I do know they have been using PGMs including fairly modern ones, and this is likely a testing ground for their new A2G munitions (a traditional weak spot of the Russian airforce in the post-Soviet era). However the vast majority appear to be unguided.

I've looked through the rest of his posts and while they do appear interesting, he's hardly a professional source. Making a judgement call based on one or two photos is hard. Let's wait and see. Of course it is always possible that it's not the munitions that are lacking but the means to deliver them there. Keeping in mind that they resorted to civilian ships again recently, this suggests a shortage of shipping. It's hard to say anything for sure.

EDIT: Some Russian commentators suggest that this is typical because the targets in question don't require more payload, and the Su-24 is excessive for these targets. It might be the lack of strike UAVs.

http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/376569.html?thread=3519993#t3519993

 

[gazzzwp]

It's far more likely that ISIS was on the list of targets all along, just not the highest priority target. There is relatively little criticism of Russian actions right now (compared to say the war in Ukraine). Their main goal seems to be to help the Syrians lift the sieges of Homs and Aleppo, as well as assisting the Syrians in pushing the rebels out of the mountains north-east of Latakia.

.

In the last 24 hours western condemnation of the strikes has indeed declined. It's as if the west is resigned to the fait accompli and has no further proposals to offer.

In other words the west seems happy to hand over the middle east to Russia. What this will do for the alliance, and the US relations between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Sunni Arabs in general is anyone's guess.

Apart from whispers of F22's being moved from Hawaii which could be part of a routine rotation, that appears to be it.

The opposition now must fend for themselves, and Russia is already reporting mass desertions and fighters fleeing into Europe as they pledge to intensify the raids.

One point to bear in mind is the economic burden to Russia that this kind of commitment will involve.

This brings me back again to the idea that there may be a bigger goal here which somehow involves insecurity to oil supplies. I hope I am wrong about this but only time will tell.

 

[A.V. Berg]

Keeping in mind that they resorted to civilian ships again recently, this suggests a shortage of shipping. It's hard to say anything for sure.

Ropuchas and Alligators have been overworked for over a year now. I am surprised that no decent number of Grens was ordered especially with the collapse of the Mistral deal. Russian sealift capability will probably soon find itself needing major repairs en masse.

 

[gazzzwp]

An interesting article outlining just how complicated this conflict really is.

It may be stretching things a little to suggest that at the top level this is a proxy war between Russia and the US, but certainly we would all agree that the two main proxy players are Iran and Saudi Arabia (I wouldn't leave Turkey out of the equation but that really does complicate the matter).

Are the Russians trying to draw in the Saudi's further thus bringing them into direct conflict with Iran? Who would benefit from such a confrontation? Russia of course because of the threat to world oil supplies. The US must have recognised this potential for escalation and I would expect them to be talking closely with the Saudi's.

Gulf states plan military response as Putin raises the stakes in Syria | World news | The Guardian

 

[alexkvaskov]

I'm glad the discussion turned to PGMs. Russian MoD says their fast jets in Syria are equipped with precision capabilities. Are they referring to targeting pods? To my knowledge, Russian mil-tech design houses are working on targeting pods, but they're not ready yet. The MoD also mentioned recon and I heard Russia is close to fielding recon pods - I recall seeing a Su-34 in flight with a SAR pod. Can someone clarify?

 

[gazzzwp]

How much of the passiveness of the US can be attributed to the desperate need of Obama to keep close relations with Iran to preserve the nuclear deal?

Is Obama paying too heavy a price to preserve this deal?

 

[John Fedup]

How much of the passiveness of the US can be attributed to the desperate need of Obama to keep close relations with Iran to preserve the nuclear deal?

Is Obama paying too heavy a price to preserve this deal?

He might be but I think the US and its NATO partners are sick of this BS and may have decided to let Russia flounder in this sinkhole and see what happens. The Saudis will be pi$$ed with this approach but many of the NATO partners are pi$$ed with them for funding ISIL. The US may be finally done with kissing Saudi a$$ as well.

 

[gazzzwp]

He might be but I think the US and its NATO partners are sick of this BS and may have decided to let Russia flounder in this sinkhole and see what happens. The Saudis will be pi$$ed with this approach but many of the NATO partners are pi$$ed with them for funding ISIL. The US may be finally done with kissing Saudi a$$ as well.

I can see the logic in what you say. The only trouble with the US abandoning the Saudi's is that it leaves the door wide open to the new 'coalition'.

That said I'm now rapidly warming to the idea that Obama is playing things correctly; stay well clear of this unholy mess and let others sink in waist deep and squander their resources.

The Saudi's and Israelis are well equipped enough to look after themselves. The US has seen to that. None of the US'[s allies in the region is really that vulnerable.

Yet.

 

[Muukalainen]

He might be but I think the US and its NATO partners are sick of this BS and may have decided to let Russia flounder in this sinkhole and see what happens. The Saudis will be pi$$ed with this approach but many of the NATO partners are pi$$ed with them for funding ISIL. The US may be finally done with kissing Saudi a$$ as well.

I have heard that Saudi Arabia was supplying DAESH, but I have not found a reliable source that can confirm it. Does anyone have a link to a good source/sources?

 

[Goknub]

I can see the logic in what you say. The only trouble with the US abandoning the Saudi's is that it leaves the door wide open to the new 'coalition'.

That said I'm now rapidly warming to the idea that Obama is playing things correctly; stay well clear of this unholy mess and let others sink in waist deep and squander their resources.

I don't believe the US is going to abandon the Saudis. They are simply playing the long game. They need to keep both the Saudis and Iraqis on side, and win over Iran, which is a delicate balancing act.

Assad was always in the Iran/Russian camp so if he ends up remaining in power it is really no change to before the civil war, except he will be in a much weaker position.

 

[Feanor]

An interesting article outlining just how complicated this conflict really is.

It may be stretching things a little to suggest that at the top level this is a proxy war between Russia and the US, but certainly we would all agree that the two main proxy players are Iran and Saudi Arabia (I wouldn't leave Turkey out of the equation but that really does complicate the matter).

It's more complex then that. I think that ISIS is not a proxy, it's an organization and a power in its own right. I suspect if the Saudis attempted to pull the plug on ISIS, they would suddenly discover that they can't. There's also a distinct possibility of internal problems in the Kingdom of Saud.

 

[Toblerone]

Interesting to hear the russian claims of mass desertions in the rebel lines, true or not. Until now I hadn't considered the morale smasher that this russian meddling must be to the opposition.

After years they were finally seeing an end at the tunnel with simultaneous victories and Assad having to admit retreats, demonstrations against him etc. And now ... I don't see the Assad regime collapsing any time soon.

Maybe partition is the humane solution, how can this country be whole again?