War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

I was assuming sats had gone up,. I was referring more to overt manned air for messaging ability and intent etc....

That may be happening. Su-24s are flying around, and there have been reports of Russian air craft actually performing air strikes (though they're unconfirmed). Also UAVs are flying a lot. Also Il-20s. It seems there are 2 of them there now, though what variant is unclear.

my prev was around the issue that the first thing you go for if you're anticipating an attack or that the attack is latent, you take out the launchers, supporting comms, supporting assets... ie degrade, deter, destroy the capacity for them to do it again.

Well Russia is hardly in a position to sink US destroyers or bomb Israeli airbases to prevent potential airstrikes.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Iskanders deployed there.

it would be interesting to see how many have been repositioned and how often they're running racetracks... ie degree of overlap by "follow ons" etc....

I'm afraid I don't have access to that kind of information. I'd think you would have a better chance of coming across info of that nature.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Putin is asking the Russian Parlt for approval to deploy troops overseas

 

[bdique]

Putin is asking the Russian Parlt for approval to deploy troops overseas

Approval has reportedly been given. (link: Russia's upper house of parliament approves use of troops in Syria - agencies - Channel NewsAsia)

Will await details from official sources, especially regarding the nature of the troop deployment.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Approval has reportedly been given. (link: Russia's upper house of parliament approves use of troops in Syria - agencies - Channel NewsAsia)

Will await details from official sources, especially regarding the nature of the troop deployment.

It would have been a brave russian parliamentarian who pushed back on that request

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian Council of the Federation has granted approval for an air operation in Syria. They say a ground operation is out of the question at this time.

Совет Федерации одобрил иÑпользование Вооруженных Ñил Ð*Ф в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

There is a total of 6 Su-34s in Syria, they flew in following that recent Tu-154 flight I mentioned. Given the pattern, they may soon be 12.

"УтконоÑÑ‹" в Сирии? - Берлога Бронемедведа
Oryx Blog: Russia's participation in the Syrian War, the Su-34 'Fullback' has arrived

Video out of Latakia airport, showing the Mi-24s and Su-24s there.

Видео из аÑропорта в Латакии - Юрий ЛÑмин

Russian newspaper Kommersant says there are Russian volunteers headed to fight in Syria on the side of Assad.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Êîììåðñàíò" îáíàðóæèë â Ðîññèè "íîâûé êëàññ îïîë÷åíöåâ", ãîòîâûõ âîåâàòü â Ñèðèè ïðîòèâ ÈÃ

Turks crossed the border into northern Iraq and killed 30 Kurdish fighters.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðåöêàÿ àðìèÿ ïðîâåëà îïåðàöèþ â Èðàêå, óáèâ áîëåå 30 êóðäñêèõ ñåïàðàòèñòîâ

ISIS shot down an Iraqi Bell 407 helo.

ПВО ISIS. Обновление. - Военный Блог

France is launching an investigation of Assad's crimes. What this will mean in practice remains to be seen. Possibly to blacken him enough to make staying in power not an option.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ôðàíöèÿ íà÷àëà ðàññëåäîâàíèå âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèé ðåæèìà Àñàäà

Iraq is buying 500 BMP-3s, Saudi Arabia another 950. The Iraqi order is logical and was predicted a while ago (they probably took some time to negotiate) but the Saudi order seems unlikely. They've done this before, announced intent to buy, and then cancelled at the last minute. Then again, they're working closely with the UAE and may have been favorably impressed by their BMP-3s in action. Not to mention that there are not BMP-3 variants with all kinds of upgrades.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2850920.html

 

[Feanor]

Approval has reportedly been given. (link: Russia's upper house of parliament approves use of troops in Syria - agencies - Channel NewsAsia)

Will await details from official sources, especially regarding the nature of the troop deployment.

Read the thread. We already know the nature of the deployment, and the fact that they're stressing use of air power in the permission matches perfectly with the assets they have in-country.

 

[A.V. Berg]

Given the number of SU 24s, does that mean that the Russian Air Force trusts them to be reliable following modernisation? I am asking because there have been a large number of accidents of this type of aircraft. Surely there must be enough SU 34 squadrons in Baltimore and elsewhere for Syrian deployment without the need for their predecessors.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Given the number of SU 24s, does that mean that the Russian Air Force trusts them to be reliable following modernisation? I am asking because there have been a large number of accidents of this type of aircraft. Surely there must be enough SU 34 squadrons in Baltimore and elsewhere for Syrian deployment without the need for their predecessors.

different capability emphasis.... one is (primarily a) dedicated ground attack asset where it can undertake missions without needing to refer to mum

the other is also a limited ISR platform as well as precision strike....

I can see the former being sent in to unzip a building without the use of PGM's etc... take out thins, and take out heavy platforms who don't have decent cover.

it will be interesting to see whether Daesh actually try to field manpads at some point.

it will briefly change the complexion of the business in theatre but not stop russia or the west from decapitating whatever pokes its head up above the parapets

 

[Feanor]

Given the number of SU 24s, does that mean that the Russian Air Force trusts them to be reliable following modernisation? I am asking because there have been a large number of accidents of this type of aircraft. Surely there must be enough SU 34 squadrons in Baltimore and elsewhere for Syrian deployment without the need for their predecessors.

There were reported troubles with the Su-34s. The nature of the trouble is unclear (reportedly radar issues of some kind) and it was supposedly resolved. In many ways this deployment is their combat trial. The Su-24M on the other hand is the workforce of Russian strike aviation over the past ~30 years. It saw extensive use in every major conflict, and is familiar and reliable. It's also been upgraded considerably (dozens of airframes under two programs, the M2 and the Gefest upgrades). Time will show as this goes on, how they perform, and what they will emphasize. It wouldn't be surprising to me, if the Su-34s are brought up to a full squadron soon.

 

[Nick underscore]

..it will be interesting to see whether Daesh actually try to field manpads at some point.

it will briefly change the complexion of the business in theatre but not stop russia or the west from decapitating whatever pokes its head up above the parapets

Funny you should mention, as the Washington Post published a recent survey from last month, sourced from a Swiss research group very much related to your point. (The survey is Aug2014)

Proliferation of MANPADS in Syria

At least 8 confirmed different models are known to be in the hands of rebel groups, with 3 of those types not previously under Syrian Govt's control. Gives the impression the systems are likely Strela-2/3 and Igla-1.

The recent fall of Al-Tabqa AB may have allowed further pilfering of stocks.

 

[gf0012-aust]

At least 8 confirmed different models are known to be in the hands of rebel groups, with 3 of those types not previously under Syrian Govt's control. Gives the impression the systems are likely Strela-2/3 and Igla-1.

The recent fall of Al-Tabqa AB may have allowed further pilfering of stocks.

well, at least the russians will have the knowledge on how to neutralise them...

as an idle point, the french have a habit of sending in their own sniffers when someone else has "uncommon" tech in town... I wonder whether they are sending in their own AWACs and ground based sniffers......

 

[RobWilliams]

as an idle point, the french have a habit of sending in their own sniffers when someone else has "uncommon" tech in town... I wonder whether they are sending in their own AWACs and ground based sniffers......

France has an E-3 and an ATL-2 MPA (that probably has at least some ELINT kit on board in one fashion or another) deployed as part of Chammal over Iraq. Presumably with the expansion into Syria, those same assets technically become available.

Haven't looked at the geography though, I think they're out of the UAE somewhere so might not be feasible (although they have some fighters out of Jordan too IIRC so could be there for all i know). The UK has plenty of E-3s in Cyprus however . . .

Forgot about the UK RC-135 too, but i think that's operated out of the UAE but again, I can't remember.

 

[PO2GRV]

Russia Launches Air Strikes In Syria

Russian airstrikes today (Wed, 30Sep) in Homs reports US officials who were given one hour's notice by Russian officials. Same US source indicates targets in Homs not related to IS

 

[gazzzwp]

Russia Launches Air Strikes In Syria

Russian airstrikes today (Wed, 30Sep) in Homs reports US officials who were given one hour's notice by Russian officials. Same US source indicates targets in Homs not related to IS

US statement due soon in the media about this. Russia again say one thing yet do another. A very untrustworthy leadership; at least the US knows what is really happening.

What will the US reaction be?

 

[STURM]

My opinion is that Russian involvement against IS is a positive development. Unlike other countries which are insist on Assad going but have absolutely no idea as to who will replace him; the Russians are realistic. They understand that the main threat is IS and that with Assad gone it will be IS and not what other countries like to call "moderate" groups who will fill the void.

There's not much the U.S. can do. After all for the past few years it has failed to do away with Assad and more recently, despite all the military action taken; IS is still there and capturing more territory. The U.S. will have no choice but to coordinate it's actions with Russia. Also, given the number of countries the U.S. has a military presence in, complaining about the Russian military presence in Syria would be a case of the U.S. kettle calling the Russian pot black.

The fall of Assad's government would benefit IS and that it turn would have serious consequences on the situation in Iraq.

 

[Blackshoe]

US statement due soon in the media about this. Russia again say one thing yet do another. A very untrustworthy leadership; at least the US knows what is really happening.

What will the US reaction be?

Expect us to elevate our posture straight to "grave concern", skipping the preliminary levels of "concern" and "deep concern".

We might even have the State Department deploy a hashtag or two, it might be that bad. :lol3

 

[gazzzwp]

Expect us to elevate our posture straight to "grave concern", skipping the preliminary levels of "concern" and "deep concern".

We might even have the State Department deploy a hashtag or two, it might be that bad. :lol3

If I read you correctly I agree that this is deeply humiliating for Washington.

Washington is having it's nose well and truly rubbed in the brown smelly stuff and unless it has a plan up it's sleeve, Russia will continue to become more and more assertive. The US is looking weaker by the minute.

This is bad for the US. No doubt about it. Putin outplays Washington every time.

 

[Blackshoe]

If I read you correctly I agree that this is deeply humiliating for Washington.

Washington is having it's nose well and truly rubbed in the brown smelly stuff and unless it has a plan up it's sleeve, Russia will continue to become more and more assertive. The US is looking weaker by the minute.

This is bad for the US. No doubt about it. Putin outplays Washington every time.

You did read me correctly. Coming directly after the President's speech at the UNGA, this is disastrous for the Obama administration. Doubt they'll be able to admit that, even to newspapers in "anonymous administration official" form, but they know it. Or are delusional.

"unless it has a plan up it's sleeve"
I'm fairly confident no such plan exists or has ever existed.

 

[gazzzwp]

Russia asks US to stop military flights over Syria.

US refuses.

Kerry rebuffs Russian demand, says US airstrikes in Syria ‘will continue’ | Fox News

 

[Feanor]

well, at least the russians will have the knowledge on how to neutralise them...

as an idle point, the french have a habit of sending in their own sniffers when someone else has "uncommon" tech in town... I wonder whether they are sending in their own AWACs and ground based sniffers......

They conduct regular Air Darts exercises.They're literally anti-MANPADS exercises, where jets train in conducting ground attack runs against MANPADS protected targets. Interestingly enough, Su-25s are not the only types. Even MiG-29s take part.