War Against ISIS

GermanHerman

Active Member
It does seem as if the US does their bit to Arm the extrimists as rebel fighters trained by the US surrender to Al Nusra and turn over their weapons after reentering Syria.

US-trained Division 30 rebels 'betray US and hand weapons over to al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria' - Telegraph

In general I think the west is doing a rather poor job at the moment, the fact that Turkey is fighting a war against the Kurds under the pretens of the coalition against ISIS is rather a shame and does the image of the USA no favor.
 

stojo

Member
the fact that Turkey is fighting a war against the Kurds under the pretens of the coalition against ISIS is rather a shame and does the image of the USA no favor.
Well, I think everyone in this game is fighting XXXX under pretens of the coalition against ISIS.

Turkey fights Kurds,
Russians fight FSA,
And Americans would like to hit Assad...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, I think everyone in this game is fighting XXXX under pretens of the coalition against ISIS.

Turkey fights Kurds,
Russians fight FSA,
And Americans would like to hit Assad...
Well no. Turks and the US are actually bombing ISIS. The Turks are also bombing the Kurds. Russia, if/when they begin active combat operations in Latakia, will be primarily fighting al-Nusra, not the FSA (which is dead in the water anyway).
 

stojo

Member
Well no. Turks and the US are actually bombing ISIS. The Turks are also bombing the Kurds. Russia, if/when they begin active combat operations in Latakia, will be primarily fighting al-Nusra, not the FSA (which is dead in the water anyway).
Yea, but I ment something else ... everyone are using ISIS as an excuse for attacking someone alse, as well...
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Of cause the different players in this game have different objectives, but in case of the bombing of kurdish positions from turkey one has to remember that the very same kurds have been equiped and instructed by western forces.

In germany the siege of Kobane gathered unmatched media attention (almost to the point where Kobane was stylized to be some kind of kurdish stalingrad), politicians traveled to kurdish regions and instructors and weapons were delivered. This was exactly the situation from which the first air strikes developed so it is fair to say that the kurds were activly fighting against ISIS and seemed or seem to many in the west as a reliable ally.

On other news the political views on Syria change in Europe: Merkel now says that Assad needs to be consulted in order to resolve the crisis and spanish foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo wants to coordinate the fight against ISIS with the regime.

Flüchtlingskrise - Merkel will mit Assad sprechen - Politik - Süddeutsche.de

I can't say that this shift comes unexpected as the russian and iranien involvment getting more sirious but especially after the refugee crisis finaly hit european mainland.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Not sure whether Feanor can provide OSINT images of the the Russian facilities in Latakia, but the Russians have been making the old US Corp of Engineers look like sloths....
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Not sure whether Feanor can provide OSINT images of the the Russian facilities in Latakia, but the Russians have been making the old US Corp of Engineers look like sloths....
What you mean with two more bases going up in Latakia area? Istamo and Al-Sanobar both now appear to be either housing or getting ready to house Russian troops. Certainly large scale and very rapid construction.

Дайте две - Военный Блог

Also a Russian strike UAV may have shown up at Hmeimeem airbase, namely the Dozor. I wasn't aware the type was even accepted for service (and it may very well not be, making this an experimental aircraft about to be used on combat). So far the most complex UAV Russia has operate has been the Israeli Searcher MkII, which in Russia is called the Forpost. A new contract for more of them was signed very recently, and Israel doesn't seem to mind providing UAVs to Russia that are being used over Ukraine. I wonder if Russia would use Israeli UAVs over Syria. It would be quite ironic.

БПЛРДозор в Сирии - Военный Блог

Western sources are claiming that Russia is planning to conduct airstrikes unilaterally over Syria, should attempts at a joint coalition fail.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Bloomberg: Ïóòèí ïëàíèðóåò íàíîñèòü àâèàóäàðû ïî áîåâèêàì ÈÃ â Ñèðèè áåç ñîãëàñîâàíèÿ ñ êîàëèöèåé

A second MoD Tu-154M passenger liner has arrived in Syria. These planes typically carry upper level officials and officers. Though they may be put to use as troop transport planes, in principle.

Второй Туполь в Сирию / Теперь RA-85586 (Ñкриншоты) - Ðвиаголоволомки

There is material suggesting that Russian military personnel who refused deployment to Syria, demanded written orders and did not get them.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèå âîåííûå, êîòîðûõ ïûòàëèñü îòïðàâèòü â Ñèðèþ, òðåáîâàëè ïèñüìåííîãî ïðèêàçà

There is info that the Syrian army is using Russian UAVs. Though this may simply be Russian military personnel using Russian UAVs. It's unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèÿ íà÷àëà èñïîëüçîâàòü ðîññèéñêèå áåñïèëèêè â âîåííûõ öåëÿõ

According to mil_avia a total of 4 An-124s are being used to ferry cargo into Syria. Which isn't a lot, when you consider how many are available and how much hardware has shown up there.

Вечерние новоÑти от FlightRadar & Ko (запиÑи) - Ðвиаголоволомки
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

Russia has entered the war against the rebels in Syria. A Russian unit of Naval Infantry ambushed an un-named group of Islamic rebel fighters. 3 were killed, 2 captured. Unfortunately the only source is this one, and the only photo is grainy and unhelpful. Also airstrikes by Russian jets near Kweiris airbase were reported.

РоÑÑийÑкие морпехи вÑтупили в бой Ñ Ð¸ÑламиÑтами на Севере Сирии | Военный информатор
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èñòî÷íèê: ðîññèéñêèå ñàìîëåòû íàíåñëè óäàðû ïî ïîçèöèÿì áîåâèêîâ "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà"

Iveco Lynx LMVs arrive in Syria, as part of the Russian deployment there. They're the only light MRAPs Russia has and iirc they received 365 of them, which is quite a lot. They're certainly a better option then the closest Russian alternatives (Tigr and Scorpion armored cars).

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð¿Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð»Ð° в Сирию Ñкандально извеÑтные бронемашины Iveco LMV «РыÑь» | Военный информатор

The large Russian UAV seen in Syria may actually be the Altius-M, not the Dozor. This would make more sense. The Altius-M is actively under development and is meant to be inducted for mass service with the VVS.

ÐИР ÐльтиуÑ-Ðœ / Ðльтаир | MilitaryRussia.Ru — отечеÑÑ‚Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° (поÑле 1945г.)

Some Iraqi Su-25 footage. Apparently additional Iraqi pilots are training in Belarus right now. Whether they intend to acquire more of the type is unclear, but it wouldn't surprise me. Actually with plans to restart the production line for the Su-25 with upgraded avionics and weapons, it would make some sense.

Су-25 в Ираке - Военный Блог

Fighting continues on the Sinai peninsula where raids by the Egyptian Army have left 19 ISIS fighters dead.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð•Ð³Ð¸Ð¿Ñ‚Ð° уничтожила более 19 боевиков на Севере Ð¡Ð¸Ð½Ð°Ñ | Военный информатор

Russia says that the US is blocking their efforts to have ISIS listed as a separate terrorist organization in the UN, where it's currently listed as one of the names of al-Qaeda.

Russian diplomats say this is because the US was the one who made ISIS possible by unchecked support of anti-Assad rebels in Syria, and at this point doesn't want to take responsibility for this fact.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ îáâèíèëà ÑØÀ â íåæåëàíèè âíåñòè "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" â ÷åðíûé ñïèñîê ÑÁ ÎÎÍ
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Chinese forces are now being touted as arriving in Tartous withn the next 6 weeks

Uncorroborated SAA source inside Latakia
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Chinese forces are now being touted as arriving in Tartous withn the next 6 weeks

Uncorroborated SAA source inside Latakia
How reliable is this? I mean the Chinese do have what, 4 helicopter carriers now? The PLAN is considerably more impressive then the VMF at this point. So from a practical stand point they certainly could do this. But would they?

I'd think Iran was more likely. But then they're already fighting inside Iraq. And I'm not sure how well Russia can coordinate with several foreign militaries at the same time. I suppose they could have separate sectors or something along those lines. Anyways.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
How reliable is this? I mean the Chinese do have what, 4 helicopter carriers now? The PLAN is considerably more impressive then the VMF at this point. So from a practical stand point they certainly could do this. But would they?

I'd think Iran was more likely. But then they're already fighting inside Iraq. And I'm not sure how well Russia can coordinate with several foreign militaries at the same time. I suppose they could have separate sectors or something along those lines. Anyways.
I've given up on predicting things for the MEAO. Anything is possible. China has more interest in keeping the Egyptians happy than the Syrians
 
I'd think Iran was more likely. But then they're already fighting inside Iraq. And I'm not sure how well Russia can coordinate with several foreign militaries at the same time. I suppose they could have separate sectors or something along those lines. Anyways.
There are some/were some unconfirmed reports, that this is an Iranian Marine Btln Grp in Syria and working near/alongside Russian Naval infantry (I think the 810th Indpt). That engagement you mentioned above, over the last 36hrs (near Kweris) has been 'intensive'.

There is also talk that Hezbollah effectively, is now almost combat exhausted and requires a lengthy regroup period

Separately, quite a few Russian Naval surface units having been transiting through the Bosphorous over the last few days all heading to the eastern med reportedly. (an EX or maybe to Tartus?)
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I think that the Chinese involvement, if true, could be a sign of the ongoing closer military and security ties between China and Russia. The PLAN and the VMF have completed a recent large scale exercise in the Pacific and a smaller one earlier on in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Russia does have military technology and skill sets that China needs and China the money that Russia needs. Russia has signed a significant gas deal with China and China does covet Russia's jet engine technology, especially the metallurgical side of things. They both want to keep the west out of central Asia and they both want to restrict what they determine as harmful foreign influences upon the region. They both have set up and are pushing their seperate integrated economic visions for the central Asian region. In Russia's case this is the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and in Chinas the Silk Road Economic Project which entails building infrastructures from China to its European markets.

Both of them are founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and both had intended to combine the EEU and the Silk Road projects under the aegis of the SCO at the recent SCO summit. For some unstated reason that didn't happen. It is also thought that both Russia and China eventually want to move the SCO towards a security and military alliance along the lines of NATO. In such a partnership, especially one with China, Russia would have to accept that it is not the dominant partner economically or militarily. This brings us back to the original postulate that China is deploying troops to Syria.

This could be so. It would be a good and valuable learning experience for the PLA to be able to work alongside Russian forces in an operational war zone. This is IMHO them working together and I wouldn't be surprised to see more of it. Down the track, if a fully workable formal military alliance is formed and sustained between the two, it will create problems in Asia and wider Pacific area because China's back is protected allowing her to become even more assertive and in eastern Europe as Russia continues to nibble away at recovering former Soviet client states because China will have her back.

For the Middle East this could make any attempts to resolve any problems there more futile than what they are now because Russia and China will undoubtedly support each other in the UN and now Iran has two powerful "friends" who will support her against the west. That support will be conditional though - very much so.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I think that the Chinese involvement, if true, could be a sign of the ongoing closer military and security ties between China and Russia.
its a situational friendship though - in real terms they barely trust each other. russia wants chinese money and china is happy to see the russians oscillate around economic distress.

the chinese have always played the long game
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

Russian aircraft in the sky over Syria. The Su-24s could by Syrian, but the Syrians usually fly in solos.

http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/369840.html

Ka-27 and Mi-8/17 in Syria. It's unclear whether they are Russian or not. They could be Syrian Naval Aviation (Mi-14s and Ka-28s) that are normally based at Basel Assad airport. They could also be Russian Ka-27PS (searching for downed pilots).

Ка-27е и Ми-8в Сирии - Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла
Ð’ Сирии поÑтроили очередную авиационную базу Ð´Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð¼ÐµÑ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ðµ вертолетов | Военный информатор

Russian Orlan UAV near Idlib in Syria.

БПЛРОрлан - Военный Блог

Su-24 photos in Latakia show them under cammie netting, and more general photos. Apparently some of the vehicles are now defensive positions around the area, not just parked. This matches with info of Russian troops starting to man checkpoints around the area.

ПоÑвилиÑÑŒ фото роÑÑийÑких фронтовых бомбардировщиков Су-24 на авиабазе в Латакии | Военный информатор
ЛатакиÑ: полным ходом - Берлога Бронемедведа

More photos of Russian facilities in Syria.

http://mikael655.livejournal.com/27157.html
http://mikael655.livejournal.com/27125.html

And one of the Egyptian Mistrals will go to the Mediterranean to fight against ISIS on the Sinai peninsula.

Планов громадье - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian sources admit military presence but claim they're there for support role, not combat.

ЛатакиÑ: мы - мирные люди. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian, Iranian, and Syrian military personnel have created a coordination center in Baghdad for attracting Sunni's to serve in the war against ISIS.

[ttp://www.newsru.com/world/25sep2015/cell.html]Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ, Èðàí è Ñèðèÿ ñîçäàëè â Áàãäàäå öåíòð ïî ïðèâëå÷åíèþ øèèòîâ ê áîðüáå ñ ÈÃ[/url]

A brief video of Russian troops training in Syria.

ПоÑвилоÑÑŒ видео учений роÑÑийÑких военных в Сирии | Военный информатор
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Russian sources admit military presence but claim they're there for support role, not combat.

ЛатакиÑ: мы - мирные люди. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian, Iranian, and Syrian military personnel have created a coordination center in Baghdad for attracting Sunni's to serve in the war against ISIS.
ah yes, what media liaison teams euphemistically refer to as "trainers"

:)
 

Twain

Active Member
Serious questrion Feanor, While russia still has significant foreign reserves, they have burned through $100-$150 billion in the last year propping up the ruble. When you consider the costs of the Ukraine conflict, low oil prices and now what appear to be significant upcoming expenditures in Syria. While it appears Russia is cutting back expenditures in Ukraine, Syria will be much more expensive in terms of both money and people. How is this going to affect the defense budget and the modernizarion progams? It certainly appears that something is going to have to be cut unless Russia uses even more of it's foreign reserves.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
ah yes, what media liaison teams euphemistically refer to as "trainers"

:)
So you think this will actually be a training center for Shiite militias?

Serious questrion Feanor, While russia still has significant foreign reserves, they have burned through $100-$150 billion in the last year propping up the ruble. When you consider the costs of the Ukraine conflict, low oil prices and now what appear to be significant upcoming expenditures in Syria. While it appears Russia is cutting back expenditures in Ukraine, Syria will be much more expensive in terms of both money and people. How is this going to affect the defense budget and the modernizarion progams? It certainly appears that something is going to have to be cut unless Russia uses even more of it's foreign reserves.
Good question. I don't think the cost of this is coming out of the defense budget. I think they're paying for it out of special funds. They may end up borrowing more heavily, and they're looking at cutting certain social spendings right now, as well as raising the retirement age. Of course this is assuming oil prices remain low.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
So you think this will actually be a training center for Shiite militias?
In russian terms, trainers tend to be active participants on the job with a token tag-along to cover the spirit of intent of "training locals"

they don't take strategic, tactical or training directions from the locals
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In russian terms, trainers tend to be active participants on the job with a token tag-along to cover the spirit of intent of "training locals"

they don't take strategic, tactical or training directions from the locals
So we're talking about Russian military advisers deploying to Iraq. Any ideas on the scale?
 
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