CD
That depends how you define 'the Pacific'!
I certainly agree that the bulk of future exercises will take place with existing partners, with the US assuming an ever-greater role. Nevertheless, the geopolitical scene is changing fast, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some unfamiliar uniforms attending future NZ-based exercises, or NZ exercising in some unexpected places.
Well whats your definition of the Pacific I see us operating with Japan before the other countries like India & Indonesia who dont have a toe hold in the Pacific the last time I looked. To be frank you must be living under a rock as those strange uniforms are already in this country and have been in this country for at least 5+ years either as individuals or small groups on English language courses. Why am I confident Indonesia will not be a part of that mix as partners on exercise in either NZ or the Pacific?
1998 the agreement to let Indonesia exercise here as a friendly country was revoked due to the ongoing troubles in East Timor, no political party since has invited Indonesia back into this country and is unlikely to ever offer it again due to the latest trouble spot to involve them ie West Papua.
Just in the past few months, we have seen:
- NZ Navy conduct formal visit to India
- Orion on exercises out of South Korea, them moving on to Japan for more of same
- CDF visiting Vietnam to meet counterparts
- Peoples Liberation Army engineers currently working with NZDF on rebuilding infrastructure in the outer Cook Islands.
All you have shown are nothing more than good old fashioned Military diplomacy tied hand in hand with MFAT bar the South Korea exercise that's due to our reinforced ties with the USA.
So the PLA deployed a small engineer party to assist in Cook Islands in a non-tactical MFAT led good will deployment, that’s a massive big jump to we will be exercising with them at the Operational & tactical level, here are some more reasons why we won’t deploy to Indonesia or India on a massive land based exercise;
1. Logistics to support the Company Battle group will require the whole of 1 Brigade to support & RNZN and RNZAF to get us there.
2. We don’t have a Visiting Forces agreements in place with those countries and are unlikely to ever need one.
3. Again I go back to CA clear cut intent SW Pacific reorientation with our Allies and neighbours.
Think about that last one - how plausible would it have sounded a decade ago? Like the man said, the times they are a'changin'.
Before you start lecturing me on they are a”changin what makes you think that its something new? PLA or Vietnamese uniforms in NZ so they assist us the US and other Pac countries to build toilets. If we dont have the same TTP's, SOP's language, Logistical systems or even communications equipment then how do you see us even getting over the start line it will be akin to the tower of babel.
We were meant to be operating off the same NATO playbook in Afghanistan and that was a classic FUBAR if ever I saw one so please just slow down, China with HADR or PR exercises yes happening already in very limited capacity, full on Operational Exercises not going to happen
Major "OPSEC" issues everywhere you look.