War Against ISIS

[nevidimka]

Those are indeed Su 27's. not mig 29/31 or any other.

Also I think the US is not learning their lessons. They created the mujahideen, and it finally blew up in their faces as AlQaeda, and yet here they are again, creating a rebel so called democracy fighters, who will eventually become another Al Qaeda and again blow up in their faces.

They dont understand that which ever rebel, terrorist,extremist they support or claim to be democratic, will eventually turn ugly and become uncontrollable. The best bet is to stick with the proper government forces, who do not launch terrorist attached at western capitals.

 

[Blackshoe]

Those are indeed Su 27's. not mig 29/31 or any other.

Also I think the US is not learning their lessons. They created the mujahideen, and it finally blew up in their faces as AlQaeda, and yet here they are again, creating a rebel so called democracy fighters, who will eventually become another Al Qaeda and again blow up in their faces.

The US didn't actually create the muj; they were an organic movement (and before someone brings up the next fallacy-the muj are not the Taliban-completely different organizations separated by chronology). They certainly provided support and weaponry, but that's not to say they created them.

Likewise, the US didn't create al-Qaeda, it created itself quite nicely without any US support; no one has ever found any evidence of US support for any of the foreign-based organizations in the 'stan during the 1980s (and people have looked. Hard).

 

[John Fedup]

The US didn't actually create the muj; they were an organic movement (and before someone brings up the next fallacy-the muj are not the Taliban-completely different organizations separated by chronology). They certainly provided support and weaponry, but that's not to say they created them.

Likewise, the US didn't create al-Qaeda, it created itself quite nicely without any US support; no one has ever found any evidence of US support for any of the foreign-based organizations in the 'stan during the 1980s (and people have looked. Hard).

If you are trying source the origins of terrorists, try Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile things are getting fuzzier. Claims that Russian Grad systems were used (with Russian Naval Infantry protection) against the rebels, due to the sandstorm making airpower unavailable.

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð»Ð° комплекÑÑ‹ «Град» по позициÑм повÑтанцев в Сирии | Военный информатор

And Iraq may have closed their airspace for Russian flights to Syria. Which would be strange, given that their militias are now fighting in Syria on Assad's side. Not to mention that they're practically allies. Then again, US pressure is not to be underestimated. And they did recently claim that they would pressure Iraq on this issue.

Ирак закрыл небо Ð´Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑийÑких Ñамолётов - Военный Блог

Unconfirmed but likely claims that Russia has built flight control facilities in Syria, and Russian combat aircraft are likely to be deployed there. Specifically Su-25s and MiG-31s (because someone really really want people to think that MiG-31s are going to be there.....). In fact Su-25s may have been inside the An-124s, they've been used in the manner frequently in the past.

В желтой жаркой Сирии не видать идилии... - Берлога Бронемедведа
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Äåéñòâèÿ Ðîññèè â Ñèðèè ðàñêîëîëè àäìèíèñòðàöèþ ÑØÀ, óçíàëè ÑÌÈ
РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ - СириÑ: например, авиациÑ. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Meanwhile the ferry with military cargo has arrived in Tartus.

Ð¢Ð°Ñ€Ñ Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¹ Блог

And Syrian government officials confirm increased Russian military presence in Syria.

СирийÑкий военный чиновник заÑвил о значительном увеличении количеÑтва роÑÑийÑких военных | Военный информатор

 

[nevidimka]

the US may not have created the mujahideen, but aided in weapons and training. Those freedom fighters are todays Taliban, and Al qaeda, and IS. Today they are self sustaining and self training, since they already got all the training they need.

And yet, they are training more rebels today to fight the syrian goverment. No doubt, these rebels will the future Al Qaeda's and Taliban's. And they will come back to haunt their previous masters.

Its not right to train and introduce terrorist in any country, but rather to help the government forces to stop these terrorists.The world should help arm Syrian army to fight these terrorists and end this wildfire from engulfing the entire arab world.

US insistence of removing Assad is nothing more than for selfish gain, with an eye on the oil pipeline.

A Syria led by Assad will not let that happen and that is why he is being being forced out.

Otherwise, I just don't know what the Saudi's with US approval is doing bombing and killing all those Freedom fighters in Yemen, along with innocent lives there. Guess the people's lives in Yemen not that important, No?

 

[Feanor]

Things continue moving. A mass take-off of Russian Tu-22M3s, the 10 flyable ones, from Dyagilevo. This doesn't look like normal training, though with the recent snap reaction drills I suppose anything is possible.

РоÑÑийÑкие бомбардировщики поднÑÑ‚Ñ‹ в воздух - Военный Блог

Meanwhile the Russian government says the An-124 flights delivered a refugee camp set up. Of course it's hard to verify or disprove, since a refugee camp and an army camp could be very similar.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè ñåëè äâà âîåííûõ ñàìîëåòà ÐÔ ñ 80 òîííàìè ãðóçà. Ìèíîáîðîíû: ýòî äëÿ ëàãåðÿ áåæåíöåâ

 

[dumpster4]

According to Reuters:

"Moscow is sending an advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Syria, two Western
officials and a Russian source said, as part of what the West believes is stepped-up
military support for embattled President Bashar al-Assad.

The Western officials said the SA-22 system would be operated by Russian troops,
rather than Syrians. The system was on its way to Syria but had not yet arrived.

"This system is the advanced version used by Russia and it's meant to be operated
by Russians in Syria," said one of the sources, a Western diplomat who is regularly
briefed on U.S., Israeli and other intelligence assessments."

=========================

Since the terrorists/guerrillas have no aircraft, it's no mystery who those air
defenses are supposed to deter.

How will this affect the ability of the U.S. and it's allies to launch airstrikes on ISIS
and/or Al-Qaeda targets in Syria?

What happens if the Israelis need to launch more air strikes into Syria, either to
prevent advanced weapons from being transferred to Hezbollah, or to keep the
Islamic extremists away from their borders?

 

[Feanor]

Belgium suggests willingness to join a ground operation in Syria.

Ðовый поворот в отношении ÑирийÑкого конфликта - Ð‘ÐµÐ»ÑŒÐ³Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð¾Ð¿ÑƒÑкает поÑылку туда Ñвоих наземных войÑк - bmpd

Meanwhile Syria's ground offensive in Latakia continues against an-Nusra. An interesting choice of priorities given that ISIS is approaching Damascus.

ÐовоÑти Ñ ÑирийÑких фронтов - bmpd

Meanwhile the mass take-off of Tu-22M3s was special training for long-range mass bombing missions with Il-78s, A-50s, and fighter escortsrl=http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1075781.html]РоÑÑийÑкие бомбардировщики поднÑÑ‚Ñ‹ в воздух. Ðпдейт. - Военный Блог[/url]

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

A map of the construction of the Russian base being built in Latakia. Unsurprisingly at this point Russia admits construction of facilities, but says they're to aid Assad, not to deploy Russian military assets.

СтроительÑтво в Латакии - bmpd
РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð² Сирии: вÑе идет по плану. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Western sources claim 7 T-90 tanks have been deployed in Latakia. And we have photo confirmation of Russian R-166 comms vehicles, with photos of Russian military personnel operating them, inside Syria.

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð² Сирии: уже и танки. Ðа аÑродроме. - Берлога Бронемедведа
Oryx Blog: Sighting of R-166-0.5 signals vehicle affirms inflow of Russian military into Syria

The rebels approach Damascus. A series of giant explosions have occurred in the wake of the Islamists' advance. Some sources speculate that it's use of extra-large thermobaric munitions, or potentially the detonation of government fuel and munition dumps as part of the retreat.

ИÑламиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ на подÑтупах к ДамаÑку - Военный Блог
Уничтожить вÑÑ‘ - Военный Блог

And evidence that the Saudi military is training and supporting ISIS, in the form of Saudi military personnel embedded with ISIS.

СаудовÑкие инÑтруктора ISIS - Военный Блог

Australia carries out its first airstrikes against ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àâñòðàëèéñêèå ÂÂÑ íàíåñëè ïåðâûå óäàðû ïî ïîçèöèÿì "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà" â Ñèðèè

There are media reports that Russia is negotiating with the US about replacing Assad.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ: Ìîñêâà âåäåò òàéíûå ïåðåãîâîðû ïî ñâåðæåíèþ Àñàäà è ñòðîèò âîåííóþ áàçó â Ñèðèè

 

[gazzzwp]

Updates.

A map of the construction of the Russian base being built in Latakia. Unsurprisingly at this point Russia admits construction of facilities, but says they're to aid Assad, not to deploy Russian military assets.

Will ISIL continue their southerly/Westward push towards Assad's remaining forces now that Russia have joined the party, or will they make a push in a different direction? South or East deeper into Iraq or north to Turkey?

Could this have been part of Russia's plan? To divert rather than eliminate ISIL?

 

[Feanor]

Will ISIL continue their southerly/Westward push towards Assad's remaining forces now that Russia have joined the party, or will they make a push in a different direction? South or East deeper into Iraq or north to Turkey?

Could this have been part of Russia's plan? To divert rather than eliminate ISIL?

It's hard to say. So far it looks like pro-Assad forces are cleaning up Latakia province, while trying to defend Damascus. I doubt that ISIS will immediately give up on Damascus and push for Latakia instead. If I had to guess (and this is a guess, so don't crucify me when I'm totally wrong) then ISIS would try to take Damascus and then worry about Russian presence near Latakia. So far that presence is tiny, and while it's expanding, Russia's ability to deploy and sustain a large force there looks questionable.

Anyways, meanwhile Russia suggests military negotiations on the Syrian issue with the US. Maybe an attempt to involve "friendly fire" incidents. There's apparently even a statement from the US to the extent that if Russia really intends to target ISIS exclusively, then cooperation is possible. Which raises questions about groups like al-Nusra (an al-Qaeda affiliate).

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Äæîí Êåððè: Ðîññèÿ ïðåäëîæèëà ÑØÀ ïðîâåñòè âîåííûå ïåðåãîâîðû ïî Ñèðèè
 ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÑØÀ íàçâàëè óñëîâèå ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà ðîññèéñêèõ è àìåðèêàíñêèõ âîåííûõ â Ñèðèè

And Russia openly admits the possibility of building a military base in Syria, while saying they don't have one there now.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãåíøòàá ÐÔ äîïóñòèë âîçìîæíîñòü ñîçäàíèÿ âîåííîé áàçû â Ñèðèè
Потихоньку... - Берлога Бронемедведа

And flights between Latakia and Russia continue. This rrding is of an An-124 taking off from Latakia.

Ðн-124 RA-82035 запрашивает разрешение на вылет (запиÑи) - Ðвиаголоволомки

 

[Feanor]

News on Syria just doesn't stop.

A Russian refugee camp has been set up in Syria near Hama, it can accommodate 500 people. Cover, or real humanitarian effort? Maybe both.

«В Сирии открыт первый лагерь Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð±ÐµÐ¶ÐµÐ½Ñ†ÐµÐ², поÑтроенный роÑÑийÑкими ÑпециалиÑтами» в блоге «Видеоблог» - Сделано у наÑ

And video of Russian military personnel in Syria. They can clearly be heard speaking Russian and the video is from a frontline position, note the tank firing at the end, and the Russian soldier/officer saying "excellent we have a hit". Note the tactical attachments on the soldiers AK, and the camo pattern. They're likely SpetzNaz or recon grunts. My personal guess would be SpetzNaz VDV from the newly expanded 45th Brigade.

Ðапример, Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа

And of course, fighter jets. An Su-30 from the looks of it. My money is on the Su-30SM. It's the most capable Russian fighter jet that isn't still being fine-tuned.

Первое фото роÑÑийÑких иÑтребителей в Сирии - Военный Блог

Syria lost a MiG-21, Su-22M, and a helicopter all in one day. Possibly new SAMs in rebel hands, possibly just a consequence of the increased op-tempo.

Предупреждение - Военный Блог

Meanwhile Shoygu and Carter (US SecDef) had a conversation about Syria, on the phone, lasting 50 mins. They plan further consultations and said that on most positions they agree.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Øîéãó è ãëàâà Ïåíòàãîíà ïî òåëåôîíó îáñóäèëè ñèòóàöèþ â Ñèðèè

Some western press is reporting that new Russian weapons are being actively used in Syria, to greaffect but details are totally absent.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Òî÷íî è ýôôåêòèâíî": ñèðèéöû íà÷àëè ïðèìåíÿòü íîâûå âîîðóæåíèÿ èç Ðîññèè

A new flight path to Syria, through Belarus, Poland, Slovakia... all to get around Bulgaria.

Ðовый маршрут в Сирию (Ñкриншот) - Ðвиаголоволомки

 

[GermanHerman]

Thanks alot for your inside Feanor, your regular updates in this kinda threads is much appreciated.

Can you tell me what this is all about? :

Êîíòðàêòíèêàìè, îòêàçàâøèìèñÿ åõàòü â Ñèðèþ, çàíÿëàñü ÔÑÁ - Ãàçåòà.Ru

From what I understand it's about russian soldiers "desserting" to fight in syria, which sounds familiar to storys we heared when Russian presence in Ukriane got painfully obvious. Is this a legit source though, am I missing out?

 

[Feanor]

Thanks alot for your inside Feanor, your regular updates in this kinda threads is much appreciated.

Can you tell me what this is all about? :

Êîíòðàêòíèêàìè, îòêàçàâøèìèñÿ åõàòü â Ñèðèþ, çàíÿëàñü ÔÑÁ - Ãàçåòà.Ru

From what I understand it's about russian soldiers "desserting" to fight in syria, which sounds familiar to storys we heared when Russian presence in Ukriane got painfully obvious. Is this a legit source though, am I missing out?

There's a story going around that some Russian contract soldiers refused to deploy to Syria. Details are lacking, and the entire situation is fuzzy. In Russia contract soldier do have the ability to resign before the end of their contract (albeit with certain financial penalties to their benefits). And there are claims that they were threatened with treason charges if they refused deployment orders. It's unclear at this point. If I get a better picture, I'll let you know.

 

[Feanor]

Update time.

Another Syrian helo was shot down, along with an Iranian UAV.

ИÑламиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ в Сирии наращивают возможноÑти ПВО. Ðпдейт. - Военный Блог
ИÑламиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ в Сирии наращивают возможноÑти ПВО - Военный Блог

Syrian airstrikes against Palmyra allegedly used new Russian munitions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàõâà÷åííóþ Èà Ïàëüìèðó â Ñèðèè ðàçáîìáèëè, âîçìîæíî, ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì ðîññèéñêèõ âîîðóæåíèé

Pretty much rock solid confirmation on Su-30SM in Syria. Note the canards and two-seater cockpits.

Предположительно Су-30СМ в Латакии - Юрий ЛÑмин
Как бы Су-30 как бы в Сирии как бы фото - Берлога Бронемедведа
Ð*оÑÑийÑкие боевые Ñамолёты Су-30СМ в Сирии - Военный Блог
Предположительно Су-30СМ в Латакии - bmpd

And a video over Homs province, with two groups of 1 Il-76 leading 4 Flankers (from the looks of it anyway) and 4 Su-24s.

http://pfc-joker.livejournal.com/85130.html

Kerry hopes for Russian help to get Assad to the negotiating table.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êåððè íàäååòñÿ íà ïîìîùü ÐÔ, ÷òîáû óñàäèòü Àñàäà çà ñòîë ïåðåãîâîðîâ

Allegedly a CIA delegation went to Moscow to discuss intel sharing on ISIS targets. This while a Russian MoD delegation went to Baghdad, straight after Center-2015.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Äåëåãàöèÿ ÖÐÓ òàéíî ïðèåçæàëà â Ìîñêâó


And more civilian vessels are being used by Russia to deliver materials to Syria, this time the ship is Transmar and it's carrying construction materials for Russian military facilities.

[url=http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1081669.html]Ð*оÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð±Ð°Ð·Ð° Ð›Ð°Ñ‚Ð°ÐºÐ¸Ñ - Военный Блог

 

[Nick underscore]

ISW update with more Sat-intel - Russia in Syria - 17th Sept

 

[Feanor]

This is the combined thread for the war on ISIS, in Iraq, Syria, and recently even Egypt. I've merged the Assad and Iraq threads, because at this point we're looking at a single large conflict.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

So the new Russian airbase near Latakia is in Jableh, and it's the Hmeimeem airbase. As of right now a squadron of Su-25s has joined the 4 Su-30SMs. It's quite likely that they are Su-25SM or SM2. Russian military personnel are now jointly manning the checkpoints around the base, with the Syrians. Western sources say that there is also 12 Su-24s in Syria (probably Su-24M2) but they're not visible in the satellite photos. It's possible that the Fencers are at T-4 instead of Hmeimeem.

There is also evidence of S-300/400 deployment, alongside the earlier Pantsyr deployment, as well as 14-20 helos of the Mi-24/35 and Mi-8/17 variety. All things considered, the more modern variants are more likely.

Western sources claim 1700-2000 Russian military personnel at Latakia, including a btln of Marines (~500 allegedly) and 9 T-90 tanks. Russian UAVs are also present, but that's not news. They've been there before.

Hmeimeem - Военный Блог
Возможно первое фото Су-30 и Су-25 непоÑредÑтвенно из аÑропорта Латакии - Юрий ЛÑмин
28 роÑийÑких боевых Ñамолётов в Сирии - Военный Блог
Oryx Blog: Further Russian Air Force reinforcements arrive in Syria, Su-25 'Frogfoots' join the fray
ÐÑропорт имени БаÑÐµÐ»Ñ ÐÑада 20 ÑентÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåññà óçíàëà î ïëàíàõ Ðîññèè ðàçìåñòèòü 2000 ÷åëîâåê íà àâèàáàçå â Ñèðèè
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èñòî÷íèêè Reuters ñîîáùèëè î íà÷àëå íàáëþäàòåëüíîé îïåðàöèè ÐÔ â Ñèðèè ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì áåñïèëîòíèêîâ
http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2834272.html

Interestingly enough major Russian media is dead silent on the deployment. It's likely they're waiting for Putin's speech to the UN.

Молчание - Военный Блог

And the Russian Tu-154M carrying high ranking MoD officials has left Baghdad and visited Teheran. After which it headed towards Latakia. Perhaps a large scale joint operation is being planned.

Юрий ЛÑмин

Interestingly enough Russia intends to deliver 12 MiG-29M fighters to Syria as well as the Yak-130 trainers that Syria purchased earlier. Given that the regime is almost certainly broke, this would fall under military aid. Which is sad, because the VVS itself is getting the cheaper MiG-29SMT while more capable MiG-29Ms are going to Syria.

Also newer Russian land mines (relatively newer anyway) have been cropping up in Syria, probably part of the cargo of the Syrian Express.

Рне многовато ли? - Берлога Бронемедведа
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ â áëèæàéøèå äâà ãîäà ïîñòàâèò Ñèðèè 12 èñòðåáèòåëåé ÌèÃ-29Ì/Ì2
http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/368140.html

The Israeli Air Force is setting up a special coordination center, to avoid friendly fire incidents with Russian troops deployed in Syria. The Israeli Prime Minister and intelligence chief are visiting Moscow to coordinate intelligence on ISIS, and avoid incidents.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2833469.html

EDIT: And the Su-24s are in Latakia too now.

http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/369334.html

And an interesting map. Though I'm not certain on the accuracy.

https://pietervanostaeyen.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/2000px-syria16.png

 

[ngatimozart]

Feanor, how reliable is the info that the Saudis are arming and training Daesh? Would not that be a political hot potato with the potential to cause damaging harm to the Saudi cause with the West? Because at some point the West will have to say enough is enough and if they have sufficient proof of official Saudi support for Daesh then that could backfire on Saudi Arabia big time, even given the dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor, how reliable is the info that the Saudis are arming and training Daesh? Would not that be a political hot potato with the potential to cause damaging harm to the Saudi cause with the West? Because at some point the West will have to say enough is enough and if they have sufficient proof of official Saudi support for Daesh then that could backfire on Saudi Arabia big time, even given the dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

At this point I would take it as fact. Saudi military personnel seem to be embedded with ISIS, and several times they have died in combat, and their Saudi military IDs have been found on them. I think I even linked to some photos of this earlier in the thread. Honestly the Saudis are positioned quite precariously, with their involvement in Yemen (so far inglorious, with the potential for both disaster and atrocities) and their stance on ISIS. Given that they're enemies of both Iran and Syria, and were originally together with the West against Assad, the current situation has the potential of putting them on the wrong side of this war.