I'm going to disagree as well but for different reasons. First a bit of critique regarding data presentation. The figures presented have no real context in the discussion. There is no ratios presented to signify what those numbers mean. Hence what proportion of the total population does each cohort represent and then the increases cited by what proportion of the cohort will that be and then by what proportion of the total population increase will that be? The data as presented says very little and offers very little context or support to your argument. The demographics are going to have minimal effect, if any, on NZ defence procurement in the medium term. However the trade at all costs philosophy that apparently pervades and informs MFAT, in all likelihood, does have and will have some impact upon NZ defence procurement.Commonality only usually lasts as long as the first upgrade. Having common doctrine is more important than common hardware. We've got very different needs, operate in different areas, and don't have all the baggage that goes with a protectionist industrial policies. Aside from that, we're on a divergent geopolitical path. Even a brief look at the ethnicity population projections shows that while Australia will remain very 'white,' New Zealand is getting less so. That means much closer economic, social and emotional links to parts of the world Australia doesn't identify as strongly with.
From StatsNZ:
The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that New Zealand's:
- 'European or Other' population (3.31 million in 2013) will increase to 3.43–3.62 million in 2025 and to 3.43–3.82 million in 2038.
- Māori population (0.69 million in 2013) will increase to 0.83–0.91 million in 2025 and to 1.00–1.18 million in 2038.
- Asian population (0.54 million in 2013) will increase to 0.81–0.92 million in 2025 and to 1.06–1.26 million in 2038.
- Pacific population (0.34 million in 2013) will increase to 0.44–0.48 million in 2025 and to 0.54–0.65 million in 2038.
Secondly and IMHO a very significant point that will feature in the RNZN ANZAC frigate replacement will be the NZ - Australia defence relationship. The 2010 DWP states that this is NZs most important defence relationship, which since 1991 consecutive NZGs have damaged through budget cuts (18% in 1991), loss of capabilities (e.g., ACF axing and cutting frigate force from four to two) and continual underfunding of defence to the point where it is debatable whether or not NZDF can deploy a combat force that is self sufficient and self reliant. Bluntly NZ is probably no longer seen by Canberra as a fully reliable ally and is seen by some as a defence bludger, which I find difficulty to counter.
For the last couple of years I've suggested that IMO the Iver Huitfeld frigates would be ideal replacements for the RNZN ANZAC frigates, with two being replaced by three. In the general course of things this would still be ideal. However the Commonwealth Of Australia has now made a decision regarding the RAN ANZAC frigate replacement with a continuous build program and a continuous build program for OPVs. Given that the ANZAC frigate build was a successful program it should be prudent to investigate NZ participation in this new program. Such participation by NZ would be a way of reinforcing NZs commitment to the relationship and would also help obtain some of the work here. IMHO a minimum of three frigates would have to be procureded. Whilst this program would cost more than the Iver Huitfelds, in the long term I believe it would be in NZs best interest to be involved in the Australian build program.