Ok John, my answers in blue
No offence, but the problem with the list you have prepared is that you are 'filling gaps' with ship production when I seriously can't understand what those ships are supposed to be being produced for (highlighted in bold above).
No offence taken but to be fair this plan fits with your wish list you posted some months ago. So hear me out and please keep an open mind. We are just speculating here.
If we look at ship production, currently based on 'commissioning' dates, there is going to be a six year gap in the last of the AWD's in 2020 and the first of the Future Frigates in 2026, I think we can all agree on that, ok?
Yes that is how it currently stands
Under my plan we are discussing, if we could get an OPV in construction by 2018, OPVs (1-8) are being commissioned during that time
Also the AORs will be commissioned around this time -
If the BMT design is chosen, ASC will likely be involved in that too.
The very first ships in your list are 8 OPV's between 2018 and 2024, are these the ships that you are suggesting be the ACPB replacements? Or are you doubling up the suggestion by RAND of a class of 4 ships as gap fillers?
A bit of both. They are gap fillers allowing the major ship builders to stay open (BAE, Forgacs, ASC etc) and skill a new work force for the Major combatants, hire apprentices, recruit graduates etc but also the start of the ACPB replacement. The ACPB are pretty shagged and lacking in capability for what we really need. As an OPV with option for mission modules, in addition to the patrol duties they can also experiment with ROVs etc for mine hunting and hydrographic survey (refining doctrine etc), while we still have the existing Mine hunter and Hydrographic fleet in operation (which are slated for a life extension)
The ACPB were slated for a 15-year life – see link meaning they will need to replace in the early 2020s. These OPVs do some of that and add capability but a fleet of interim patrol boat based on an existing design would be need to be acquired or leased as a short-term replacement as per the 2013 White Paper direction (possibly the Cape class). These would likely have a similar life span to the Armidale’s around 15 years. This interim class would likely not be built by one of the Major builders, rather Austral or a similar 2nd tier ship builder ( which need to be replaced in the 2030s).
Either way, yes no doubt construction of a class of OPV's will have to be undertaken in that time frame as either a 'gap filler' and/or at least the start of construction for the ACPB replacements, so I do agree that 'something' is likely to be constructed at that time, either a stand alone class of OPV's (as suggested by RAND) or the ACPB replacements themselves.
Next of course is the Future Frigates, you list 9 Future Frigates between 2024 and 2038, yes that probably near enough to the correct time frame for construction/commissioning of that class.
Good, agreed
Before I go any further with your list, I think it's fair to say that from the end of the AWD's (2020) to the end of the Future Frigate production (around 2038/40), there will have to be a number of 'concurrent' ship production runs, NOT 'consecutive' production runs.
Yes, the replenishment ships (2 x AOR) and the landing ships also need to be fit in somewhere. Like I said these could be slotted in, there are 3 -4 yards after all.
And during that time, the ships that will have to be replaced prior to the end of the 2030's are: the ACBP's, the Future Frigates, the Mine Warfare ships and the Hydrographic fleet too (and possibly the LCH(R), if proceed with, during that time frame too), can we agree on that? And it may also be that some of the 'smaller' ships may in fact be built at locations 'other than' Techport too?
Yes, keep reading
The two LHD's are probably not going to be replaced until mid or late 2040's, the 2 AOR's probably closer to 2050 and that leaves Choules, which originally commissioned in the UK in 2006, say a 30 year life, so somewhere around the mid 2030's, another 'concurrent' program and possibly overseas build too (maybe tied to the time frame when the UK, Spanish and Dutch sisters/half sisters are being replaced).
So getting back to your list, the gap between 2038 and 2047 (first AWD replacement), you have listed a class of 12 Corvette/OCV's, correct?
These are an evolution on the OPVs (build 2018-2024) to replace the
interim patrol boats, mine warfare and hydrographic fleets. Bringing our total OPV and Corvette/OCV fleet to 20 – the original goal of SEA 1180.
DSTO is working on SEA 1179 Phase 1 which will extend the MHC (mine hunting/hydrographic) life of type, extension by 15 years, IOC is expected around 2021. Now agreed 2038 is a little late to replace the mine and hydrographic fleets, but under this plan we will have the 8xOPVs built 2018-2024) which can take majority of the minor warfare load, and the interim patrol boats
What exactly are these 12 ships replacing? What exactly is their purpose and role? Because I don't understand what the purpose of that class of 12 ships is other than to fill 'another gap' in production, (everything else in the fleet will have to be replaced 'before' those dates or 'after' those dates).
Not to say a future Government, may or may not, throw continuing production work at Australian shipyards, but surely you just don't go ahead and build a class of 12 OCV's over a 10 year period just as a gap filler??
Anyway, I'm interested to understand what exactly is the reason/purpose of those 12 OCV's.
So then after AWD replacements and future frigate replacements, you replace the 8 OPVs built in (2018-2024) with Corvettes/OCV to bring them in line with the 12 x Corvettes/OCVs built 2038- 2047. Giving you the 20 x OCV, 9 x Frigates and 3 AWD on a continuous build.
Plus, other work like the LHD replacements (which the hull is unlikely to build in Australia, only fitted out), Submarine maintenance or build (who knows) , Other auxiliaries like LPD ( again unlikely to be built in Australia) , Landing craft etc - but there are 3-4 yards for block work.
Under this program there will always be warships (including hull construction) built in Australia during our lifetime. Hence continuous build. - A the very least one warship is always under construction, which means we maintain a capability in Australia that can be built on as needed. Not completely degraded ( i.e valley of death)
Yes other ships will also be fitted out, maintained and blocks built also.
I am no expert and the experts in defence can no doubt improve on this, but this pretty basic project management schedule does deliver continuous build.
Of course plenty of elections during this time so – anything can happen.
Rock Kitten:
1. What if some of the OPV/corvettes are going to be aluminum hulled LCS from Austal? I haven't seen any modern mine sweeping/hunting vessels in steel hull, yes, we can use USV/UAVs yes, we can degauss the steel hull, but most common practice will go for fiber-glass or wooden hull.
in this plan, Austral would get the interim patrol boats and there is nothing to say they couldn't bid on the Corvette/OCV - Up to them to deliver a competitive bid. The initial 8 x OPVs no, as they are needed by the major yards to prevent closures (or so the media and their PR people would have us believe) and build a skilled workforce for the frigates.
Oh and rock kitten? Wooden hull ? Really ? a wood hull on a modern warship - errrrrr
