I agree with all of the above, the only thing I would add is that we may start looking at broad band stealth UCAVs in 10-20 or so years, which would give the RAAF a significant deep penetration strike capability, and thus a strategic deterrent. While different to the classic strategic deterrent (Bombers, ICBMs etc), swarms of small undetectable UCAVs capable of striking any target inside your borders would make you think twice, don't you think?
Also, as the RMA and our reliance on technologies continues, things like advanced cyber warfare capabilities will become strategic deterrents (they are already are). The future is now
Realistically I wouldn't be holding my breath about the RAAF acquiring armed 'stealth' UCAVs in the next 10 years, let alone the next 20 years or so.
It will all come down to where the US likely goes on that journey (I can't imagine that we would develop one ourselves or obtain such a capability from a source other than the US).
The only long range strategic deterrent that I can reasonably envisage for the ADF over the next 10, 20 or so years is appropriately armed submarines with a TLAM type capability (and also AWD's / Future Frigates), backed up by the current RAAF assets with long range strike weapons such as JASSM-ER supported by the appropriate level of tanker support to deliver a weapon such as JASSM-ER.
And I especially don't see Australia obtaining "swarms of small undetectable UCAVs capable of striking any target inside borders" either, my imagination doesn't quite stretch that far, not to say that such a thing isn't possible, just have a problem getting my head around that concept for Australia's strategic position at this stage.
To me it all comes down to need, do we need such capabilities? That of course is the question, and realistically who in our near neighbourhood are we going to need such a deterrent for?
Obviously the elephant in the room (or should I say Panda Bear), is China, if we do need a strategic deterrent in coming years it will probably be because of China and what it might (or might not) do in our region over the coming years, but I also think that China can achieve a lot of its objectives through 'economic warfare' and not actual warfare!
Am I being 'conservative' about the use of armed long range stealth UCAV's in ADF service? Maybe I am, maybe I'd just call it realistic!!
Not to say I don't see an increasing need and use of UAV's in general for ADF service, apart from existing experience and capabilities, I can see significant use of UAV's in coming years, Triton, armed Reapers, various forms of ship borne UAV's from small system and right up to Fire Scout type systems.
Anyway, interesting times ahead!