With the current debate about the Future Frigates and the Collins replacement, the question that keeps coming up in my mind is:
As things stand as of today, and with the time frame that appears to be confronting the Government, does Australia actually have the manpower and industrial capacity to concurrently build the Future Frigates, continue the sustainment and maintenance of the existing Collins fleet and also build a new class of Submarines? Can all of this be achieved concurrently?
Shipbuilding
Currently we have a workforce at Techport building blocks and assembling the AWD's, we also have block work being performed in Melbourne and Newcastle.
If a modification of the AWD hull can be successfully produced as the Future Frigate then I can see that the existing shipbuilding workforce will transit onto the Future Frigate work at the completion of the AWD work and be busy till probably the early 2030's.
Submarine Sustainment and Maintenance
ASC currently has its main workforce at Techport and also another facility in WA, the workforce sustaining the Collins will no doubt be occupied with maintaining the Collins fleet till the early 2030's.
Obviously the workload on the Collins class sustainment will start to decline from the mid 2020's when the first is retired and wind up in the early 2030's, but from the mid 2020's onwards the sustainment work on the Collins replacement should fill that gap until eventually ASC is sustaining the new fleet up until sometime in the 2050's.
New Submarine Construction
Currently there is no existing workforce for the construction of the new class of Submarines, there are no construction facilities (ASC's are now used for the Collins class sustainment), obviously new building sheds, etc, can be constructed.
But do we have a large enough pool of highly skilled people in this country (that is not occupied by Future Frigate construction and Collins sustainment) to put together and produce a new class of submarines in the timeframe that would be necessary to have a boat in the water when the first of the Collins retires? The answer to that is probably not.
So what does the Government do?
How does it satisfy all the competing priorities and interest groups? It needs to ensure that the Navy gets its ships and submarines on time and on budget, it needs to spend the taxpayers dollars wisely and ensure that a single program doesn't absorb so much money that other programs have to suffer, deferred or deleted, it also needs to ensure that the 'Valley of Death' is dealt with as best can be done when the AWD's complete construction and ensure that the replacement Submarines can be successfully sustained, upgraded and maintained in Australia.
Firstly Shipbuilding, if the AWD hull can be the basis for the Future Frigate, it would appear that this will solve the 'Valley of Death' issue, and lets not forget that there are (or were) other shipbuilding projects in previous DWP's, so we will no doubt have to wait until the new DWP arrives mid next year, but it could reasonably include, a new fleet of Patrol Boats (plus the Pacific Patrol boats), eventual replacements for the LCH fleet, maybe the OPV's might be back on the table, there is the Hydrographic fleet, Mine warfare vessels, possibly an eventual replacement for Choules too.
Next is Submarine sustainment, I would think that the workforce sustaining the current fleet will no doubt also have the opportunity to sustain the replacement fleet till at least the middle of this century.
And finally the construction of a new fleet of Submarines, this is the question that I struggle to find a clear answer for, what are the options?
Is the time available to build the workforce needed for such a task.
Extend the life of the Collins class through a further docking cycle (that has been mentioned as possibly doable), but that could absorb many Billions of dollars and would it be worth it in the long run? It wouldn't do anything for Submarine construction as such but would provide continuing work for ASC's sustainment workforce, but that would happen with a new class that was build Overseas anyway.
Build the entire fleet Overseas, assuming that the Japanese boat (if chosen for example) can be successfully configured to meet Australia's particular needs.
Or maybe the other option is to build part of the new Submarine fleet entirely overseas and when work winds down on the Future Frigates in the 2030's then start to transition the workforce over to local submarine construction for the balance of the fleet.
Anyway, lots of interesting questions, and just my opinion of course!
Cheers,