Indeed it seems that way, with no hard numbers independently given.I am very concerned at the different costs being quoted, they are all over the place and I get the impression that the different interest groups are inventing figures that support their arguments. .
There are two issues:
1) Local build. ASC is functioning, builds going along, we have already spent a lot of money to get things up and running. To amortize that cost we should have significant local builds of ships/boats (IMO) each achiving a target tighter/better on each build. Local production is really a management issue IMO. It do able but you need to set the right conditions and have a system to measure and manage the production, with a back up plan if it all goes pear shaped. However I personally think its entirely reasonable to build them here, with very minimal costs comparative to anywhere else that would build them.
2) Design. There is still no proven off the shelf design that will meet all of our requirements (IMO). Collins is what we have Soryu is closest because it actually exists, however it would be significantly slower transiting, worse indiscretion rates, still require integration with out systems and weapons so is still not MOTS. Im sure it could be modified, but increases risk and cost. That being said there may be benefits adopting the design and having an overseas builder ready to step in. Pretty much most of the Collins criticism could be leveled at the design/management rather than the physical construction.
IMO - modifications would include, combat system, torpedoes, harpoon, replacement of the AIP with 1 or 2 additional engines, changes to the snorkel, greater fuel storage.
Given the time frames, I think we realistically have to look upgrading/life extending the existing collins boats with new powertrain.
tbh I don't see the RAN/Australia giving up on subs. We have the money, the man power and the skill. Its just a big project (the biggest project, bigger than the NBN or any other Australian project) with significant risk.
Its akin to building a space program. You need a lot of pieces in place to be able to put it all together. We have most of those pieces, we have the capability, we have allies that are willing to help us "fill the gaps".