War Against ISIS

[STURM]

It would seem flawed western policies have a long history in this particular area of the world, the drawing of national borders by the British being just one of many.

The French had a major hand it in as well.

A History of the First World War in 100 Moments: A desert uprising that began in hope but was doomed to end in betrayal - History of the First World War in 100 moments - World History - The Independent

The drawing of artificial borders was done not only in the Middle East but also elsewhere and not only by Britain and France. Granted a lot of problems in the Middle East are the result of decisions taken by colonial powers - for their own national interests - without even bothering to consult to wishes of the locals but the Arabs also share a lot of responsibility for their current predicament. They have failed to unite when it really matters, are more interested in regime survival, conspiring aganst each other and being in the West's good books. And as long as various fundamental issues are not resolved, ISIS will continue to attract recruits [some of them shown in the video below]; irrespective of how much military and diplomatic efforts are put in by the West.

[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFZhQ4u2Cbg[/nomedia]

 

[swerve]

Maliki has stepped down, so maybe the Iraqi government will now be able to concentrate on getting things done, instead of infighting.

 

[RobWilliams]

UK is to deploy 4 Chinooks to RAF Akrotiri to help in Iraq, however the role is currently unclear about either getting supplies to the Kurds more accurately than Hercs or taking part in a rescue event. Although recently read an article saying that according to US military personnel an evacuation isn't required. Presumably in the strength either the position is defendable or that the resupply efforts are working and sustainable.

Such a deployment requires access to Turkish air space and facilities closer to Iraq for refuelling etc. Also, who exactly is securing these landing zones and what is the potential threat from AAA/MANPADS.

EDIT: among the people backing the new Iraqi PM is 'one of the most powerful Sunni tribal leaders' and 'Iraqs most influential Shia cleric'.

 

[Gremlin29]

If RAF 47's are equipped with ATIRCM they are pretty well defended against manpads.

There was talk of the US sending Stingers to the Syrian rebels a while back, don't recall if it was reported as to whether or not that happened. I would expect up to and including SA-24's, though not in huge quantities. Besides surveilance assetts, corridor sweeps can be conducted with other platforms. I've done just that a number of times in the past.

On a technical note, LZ's are never considered secure, they can be hot or cold but never considered secure.

 

[Rimasta]

If RAF 47's are equipped with ATIRCM they are pretty well defended against manpads.

There was talk of the US sending Stingers to the Syrian rebels a while back, don't recall if it was reported as to whether or not that happened. I would expect up to and including SA-24's, though not in huge quantities. Besides surveilance assetts, corridor sweeps can be conducted with other platforms. I've done just that a number of times in the past.

On a technical note, LZ's are never considered secure, they can be hot or cold but never considered secure.

I heard that Saudi Arabia was going to send the Syrian rebels Chinese made HN-5's. The Americans however put heavy pressure on Riyadh not give the rebels MANPADS, and last I heard they (the MANPADS) are sitting in a warehouse somewhere in Jordan. I think the nightmare scenario is someone using a US supplied SAM against an airliner. Was that ever a concern for the west when they were supplying the mujaheddin with FM-92 Stingers to shoot down Soviet helicopters?

 

[RobWilliams]

If RAF 47's are equipped with ATIRCM they are pretty well defended against manpads.

There was talk of the US sending Stingers to the Syrian rebels a while back, don't recall if it was reported as to whether or not that happened. I would expect up to and including SA-24's, though not in huge quantities. Besides surveilance assetts, corridor sweeps can be conducted with other platforms. I've done just that a number of times in the past.

On a technical note, LZ's are never considered secure, they can be hot or cold but never considered secure.

As ever, grateful to hear from the people who do it, thanks

The only info I have right now about the UKs Chinook defence suite is straight from the RAFs website.

The Chinook is well equipped with defensive aids and has a Radar Warning Receiver, an Ultraviolet and Doppler Missile Approach Warning System, infrared jammers and chaff and flare dispensers, which can be manually or automatically fired

Also, UK DefSec Michael Fallon has told Sky News that the UK will deploy its only RC-135 for surveillance operations over Iraq. BBC crews have also accompanied Voyager crews doing tanking over Iraq.

 

[John Fedup]

I heard that Saudi Arabia was going to send the Syrian rebels Chinese made HN-5's. The Americans however put heavy pressure on Riyadh not give the rebels MANPADS, and last I heard they (the MANPADS) are sitting in a warehouse somewhere in Jordan. I think the nightmare scenario is someone using a US supplied SAM against an airliner. Was that ever a concern for the west when they were supplying the mujaheddin with FM-92 Stingers to shoot down Soviet helicopters?

Back in the Cold War days, a communist Afghanistan seemed like the worst outcome possible. Today, we know better, there are even worse possibilities. As for supplying Stingers, it was very risky but I recall statements saying the weapons had a finite self-life, no sure how true that statement was at the time.

 

[Gremlin29]

Back in the Cold War days, a communist Afghanistan seemed like the worst outcome possible. Today, we know better, there are even worse possibilities. As for supplying Stingers, it was very risky but I recall statements saying the weapons had a finite self-life, no sure how true that statement was at the time.

It is true, the Stinger has a relatively short shelf life. There were plenty of them out there and many of them (and other Russian/Chinese) have been uncovered and found to be inoperative. I haven't heard of any being hacked back to operational status either.

In so far as Stingers being supplied to Afghanistan that was almost 30 years ago, islamic extremists were barely given consideration when the east and west were prepared to destroy the planet. As always it's all about perspective.

 

[STURM]

Was that ever a concern for the west when they were supplying the mujaheddin with FM-92 Stingers to shoot down Soviet helicopters?

To some extent there were some concerns but this was overidden by the fact that the mujaheddin were keeping the Soviets busy and the mujaheddin did not have a history of attacking non-Soviet civillian targets. Throughout the years of the Soviet occupation, there was not a single suicide attack launched on the Soviets or the Afghan government. That came later.

The groups that received most of the Stingers were Pushtun groups like Herzb lslami; led by Gulbuddin Hetmatyer. He was a favourite of the Pakistanis and a few years ago was declared a 'terrorist' who was allied with the Taliban. I recall reading somewhere Ahmad Shah Massoud saying he only received a handful: he was off course not a favourite of Pakistan and was distrusted by the Americans. The question I'm really curious about is how many Stingers did the Pakistanis keep and if they gave any to a 3rd party. There's avideo somewhere on Youtube showing rebels using what was described as an FN-6.

As for supplying Stingers, it was very risky but I recall statements saying the weapons had a finite self-life, no sure how true that statement was at the time.

All MANPADs and other missiles have a shelf-life. The 1st to go on MANPADs are usually the batteries which however can be replaced by commercial ones. How the MANPADs are stored also plays a part.

 

[gf0012-aust]

All MANPADs and other missiles have a shelf-life. The 1st to go on MANPADs are usually the batteries which however can be replaced by commercial ones. How the MANPADs are stored also plays a part.

its mainly a concern about either the propellant or the warhead.

some types of propellant destabilise over time

 

[CheeZe]

BBC News - Jihadis accused of new massacres in Iraq and Syria

BBC News - Iraq crisis: US strikes aid Kurdish bid to retake dam

I find these to be interesting articles. The first one shows Yazidi volunteers being trained by Kurdish forces while the second talks about joint US-Kurd operations to retake the Mosul Dam.

The basic gist is that the Kurds are trying to get things done. What about the Iraqi Armed Forces? There's no news about them that I can find.

I started a thread in 2011 to inquire about the Iraqi army and to quote Stobiewan:

As it stands, countering an insurgency is about as effective as the Iraqi military is going to be (at this moment)

Maybe they're not being deployed right now? I don't know. But if they ever are, do these expectations of some competency stand or should we hold the Iraqi forces to the lowest expectations of them?

EDIT: This BBC article ( http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28770792 ) calls the Iraqi Army "shattered."

 

[gf0012-aust]

the fundamental difficulty is that you cannot analyse the Iraqi army under the normal prism of a coherent force

loyalties are divided along clan then secular lines before national loyalty kicks in

so in the early reports where the press spoke about the army folding or defecting it lacked context

ie shia wouldn't fight shia, sunni wouldn't fight sunni - and the major clans determined how the cards would fall - eg Tikritis, Malikis etc.....

an army based on those lines will break down as soon as secular issues arise and thats exactly whats happened

these guys aren't the Jordanians

 

[colay]

Is it reasonable to expect the Peshmerga to combat ISIL outside of Kurdish territory?

 

[CheeZe]

BBC News - Kurdish forces 'break IS hold on Mosul dam'

With the Mosul Dam out of IS hands, the Kurds have announced their intentions to push them out of the Nineveh plains so refugees can return. Presumably, they intend to hold onto it until regular Iraqi forces can take over operations.

ie shia wouldn't fight shia, sunni wouldn't fight sunni

In the article linked, it mentions Sunni tribesmen in Anbar Province fighting against the insurgents (who claim to be Sunni). I'm not bringing this up to be contradictory but for clarification, as I know little of the regional complexities. But having trained as a historian, my curiosity for what is clearly a significant historical event is piqued.

 

[swerve]

Is it reasonable to expect the Peshmerga to combat ISIL outside of Kurdish territory?

Define Kurdish territory.

Sinjar, for example - a Yazidi town. Yazidis speak Kurdish. It's claimed by the Kurds as Kurdish land. They think language is more important than religion. The Kurds are also happy to count the Shabak, who speak a language related to the Kurdish languages. There are also districts which used to have a Kurdish majority until Saddam deported Kurds & shipped in Arabs, & which the Kurds still regard as Kurdish land, & the so-called Turkmen might be happier in a Kurdish state.

 

[gf0012-aust]

In the article linked, it mentions Sunni tribesmen in Anbar Province fighting against the insurgents (who claim to be Sunni). I'm not bringing this up to be contradictory but for clarification, as I know little of the regional complexities. But having trained as a historian, my curiosity for what is clearly a significant historical event is piqued.

I was trying to simplify it within context - but its not as simple as what I tried to say either. In the above case the example is about tribal loyalties first.

the same problem exists with afghanis (but again a slightly different model)

ISIS gathered steam because it was able to drag in fundamentalists, as well as those aggrieved by Maliki - and in some instances, elements of their forces only had interest in teaching maliki a lesson rather than creating another new environment (caliphate) ie flying a flag of convenience.

the whole thing is a quagmire of suspect loyalties and aspirational fundamerntalists flying under a fundamentalist flag

 

[John Fedup]

Is it reasonable to expect the Peshmerga to combat ISIL outside of Kurdish territory?

I would say yes if they think such actions will provide better long term security for their territory. It is also better to having the fighting tearing up some one else's backyard rather than your own.

 

[bdique]

I would say yes if they think such actions will provide better long term security for their territory. It is also better to having the fighting tearing up some one else's backyard rather than your own.

I personally think it also has a political edge to it - it signals that the Kurds are thinking long-term (setting up a 'buffer zone' for their hinterland, while helping others who can't drive out IS on their own), hence demonstrating leadership to their stakeholders, Kurd and non-Kurd alike.

What remains to be seen is if the Peshmerga will fight alongside/conduct joint operations with the Iraqi Armed Forces against a common foe.

 

[STURM]

What remains to be seen is if the Peshmerga will fight alongside/conduct joint operations with the Iraqi Armed Forces against a common foe.

They have already done so. Kurds and Iraqis recovered the Mosul dam from ISIS. It will have been obvious to both sides by now that although there is mistrust between both; that cooperation is needed against a common foe.

Middle East crisis: We know all too much about the cruelty of Isis

 

[the concerned]

I'd like to know how far are the western governments prepared to go to deal with the jihadists. Even if they are successful in defeating them in Iraq would they be prepared to cross the border and beat them in Syria. It would be foolish to leave them to regroup in another country.