War Against ISIS

[STURM]

The question for me is how much funding does ISIS and similar groups receive from wealthy individuals and organisations based in Sadia Arabia, Qatar, etc.

Has the Saudi government or another Gulf state - the past 24 hours - even commented on the situation in Iraq?

Assad I suspect will be heaving a sight of relief as the focus on certain countries will now be directed towards ensuring the survivability of the Iraqi government; rather than toppling his regime. It goes without being said that Assad will also claim that the rise of ISIS is largely due to assistance provided to groups trying to topple him and that this is what he has been warning the West of all along.

 

[gf0012-aust]

The question for me is how much funding does ISIS and similar groups receive from wealthy individuals and organisations based in Saudia Arabia, Qatar, etc.

there are some persistent mumblings that the saudi's and GCC are actively funding ISIS

 

[STURM]

In your opinion, apart from the ongoing 'war' between the Sunnis and the Shiites; could assistance provided by Saudi and GCC countries be also due to displeasure that the U.S. chose not to strike Syria and to engage Iran over the nuclear deal?

 

[gf0012-aust]

In your opinion, apart from the ongoing 'war' between the Sunnis and the Shiites; could assistance provided by Saudi and GCC countries be also due to displeasure that the U.S. chose not to strike Syria and to engage Iran over the nuclear deal?

I gave up trying to make sense out of the Middle East long ago

I really can't see it ending well for the current version of Iraq. Apart from the sectarian issues, Maliki has been duplicitous and corrupt in his governing. The rebels will be seen as liberators
The Iranians will stay engaged due to sectarian obligations and they won't want a new threat arising out of Iraq
The Saudis and some GCC will see it as an opportunity to destabilise syria and iran
Turkey will be fretting about the Kurds establishing a formal state as well as a threat to Turkish integrity

I can't see it going well for anyone ....

 

[Waylander]

With Iraq in heavy turmoil the gulf arabs are one step closer to getting the bill of their ongoing support for radical rebel groups all over the Levante.

If Iraq falls, even partly, into their hands they will try to spread into SA and the GCC for good. It's not like the decadent lifestyle and cooperation with the west of the ruling class on the gulf is not as much an abomination as Shia-heretics.

That so few ISIS troops where able to root such a high number of Iraqi army and police units speaks volume about the state of the Iraqi Armed Forces.

Additional fast and rotary air assets won't save them when they don't get their act together and stop them cold on the ground. In the end we are talking about light infantry with technicals in support against full fledged heavy army formations after all...

The Madhi Army and othet Shia militias mobilizing as well as Iranian support may save their bacon when it comes to holding Bagdad. But getting back lost territory is quite another step...

 

[gf0012-aust]

With Iraq in heavy turmoil the gulf arabs are one step closer to getting the bill of their ongoing support for radical rebel groups all over the Levante.

If Iraq falls, even partly, into their hands they will try to spread into SA and the GCC for good. It's not like the decadent lifestyle and cooperation with the west of the ruling class on the gulf is not as much an abomination as Shia-heretics.

That so few ISIS troops where able to root such a high number of Iraqi army and police units speaks volume about the state of the Iraqi Armed Forces.

Additional fast and rotary air assets won't save them when they don't get their act together and stop them cold on the ground. In the end we are talking about light infantry with technicals in support against full fledged heavy army formations after all...

The Madhi Army and othet Shia militias mobilizing as well as Iranian support may save their bacon when it comes to holding Bagdad. But getting back lost territory is quite another step...

+1

IMO the sectarian holdings are gone. Iraq is in the beginning stages of breaking up - but it will break up as the central govt is unable to do anything about reversing whats happened to date - and will continue to happen

the map is being redrawn

 

[Gremlin29]

Without major external intervention, Iraq is about to enter it's darkest days in modern history. I'm only surprised that it's lasted 2+ years since the US pulled out. The real question is going to be, the effects that it will have in the rest of the region and at what cost in human life which I suspect, will be quite high.

 

[John Fedup]

Can't exactly recall Colin Powell's line but "if you break it, you'll own it" or something like that. As other commenters have stated, it probably will not end well. Partition seems to be a possible outcome but Turkey is not going to like a separate Kurd state. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan need to feel some pain for fanning the flames of this mess.

 

[John Fedup]

Without major external intervention, Iraq is about to enter it's darkest days in modern history. I'm only surprised that it's lasted 2+ years since the US pulled out. The real question is going to be, the effects that it will have in the rest of the region and at what cost in human life which I suspect, will be quite high.

The line up for external intervention is going to be pretty short, at least with respect to ground support. So much money has been pi$$ed away on the Iraq, there really is not much to spare. Worse still, some of this vast sum of money would have been better spent in Afghanistan where the terrorist haven really was. This situation in Iraq is likely a preview of Afghanistan down the road.

 

[2007yellow430]

The line up for external intervention is going to be pretty short, at least with respect to ground support. So much money has been pi$$ed away on the Iraq, there really is not much to spare. Worse still, some of this vast sum of money would have been better spent in Afghanistan where the terrorist haven really was. This situation in Iraq is likely a preview of Afghanistan down the road.

An interesting analysis:

Obama'€™s Iraq dilemma: Fighting ISIL puts US and Iran on the same side | Al Jazeera America

Someone should have figured this out in 2003, but they didn't and here we are.

 

[John Fedup]

An interesting analysis:

Obama'€™s Iraq dilemma: Fighting ISIL puts US and Iran on the same side | Al Jazeera America

Someone should have figured this out in 2003, but they didn't and here we are.

I think Colin Powell (and others) figured out the clusterphuck potential and massive expense of this but nobody wanted to hear it. To be sure Saddam tried to give the world the impression he had WMD but that was to scare off Iran which was in the position to clean his clock assuming no Western foreign intervention. He wasn't close to having a bomb and the West either knew this or should have.

 

[STURM]

I'm only surprised that it's lasted 2+ years since the US pulled out.

I can't hell asking myself what Afghanistan will look like after the departure of U.S. and other foreign troops. Given that talks have been ongoing with the Taliban - with U.S. blessing - to get them involved in the political process; will the Taliban play nice or decide that it still has to resort to armed means to gain power? And to think that only a few years ago the Bush administration said that the Taliban was the enemy and that there was no place for them in a new Afghanistan! One things for sure, the Taiban fully realise that they can't go back to their old ways and that if they do; whatever support they enjoy from Afghans - who despise the Kabul goverment and want foreign troops out - will be eroded.

Someone should have figured this out in 2003, but they didn't and here we are.

What I find so so amazing is that Rumsfeld actually thought that Iraq could be invaded and that oil money and grateful Iraqis would get the country back on its feet again. According to this fantasy, there was no need for any nation building and no need for insititutions like the UN to help Iraq reconstruct.

Quite a few people repeatedly pointed out that a post-invasion Iraq would go ratshit due to poor planning and a lack of strategic thought but I people like Rumsfeld just didn't want to listen because they were absolutely convinced their plan would work. It's amazing, given the number of think tanks and Middle East experts in the U.S. As it turned out things did go rat shit; the country went into a civil war and ordinary Iraqis paid the price.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEGdKkgkoqA"]Sir Michael Jackson - War and Peace - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[gf0012-aust]

What I find so so amazing is that Rumsfeld actually thought that Iraq could be invaded and that oil money and grateful Iraqis would get the country back on its feet again. According to this fantasy, there was no need for any nation building and no need for insititutions like the UN to help Iraq reconstruct.

Quite a few people repeatedly pointed out that a post-invasion Iraq would go ratshit due to poor planning and a lack of strategic thought but I people like Rumsfeld just didn't want to listen because they were absolutely convinced their plan would work. It's amazing, given the number of think tanks and Middle East experts in the U.S. As it turned out things did go rat shit; the country went into a civil war and ordinary Iraqis paid the price.

rumsfeld ignored the military advice - and repeatedly so.

 

[STURM]

Not to get off-topic but certain lessons learnt in Afghanistan with regards to the need to rebuild the country could have been applied in Iraq but were ignored. And prior to the invasion of both countries the UN and the EU were extremely eager to help with the post invasion period but were politely ignored. And off course the biggest folly was pulling assets away from Afghanistan for the Iraqi invasion; at a time when the Taliban was severely weakened and when a large part of the Afghan population welcomed the presence of foreign troops.

 

[John Fedup]

rumsfeld ignored the military advice - and repeatedly so.

So true, and he made a point of ignoring the Powell doctrine, "use overwhelming force". I am not sure if it was his promotion to disband Saddam's army or Bush Jr. 's appointed first whatever who's name escapes me...was it Brenner?

 

[STURM]

It was Bremer's idea to disband the Iraqi army and to ensure that former Baathists could not seek employment with the new government. The biggest mistake IMO was not realising that it would take a lot of work, money and focus to get Iraq running again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-think-iraqis-are-far-better-off-8539767.html

 

[John Fedup]

Not to get off-topic but certain lessons learnt in Afghanistan with regards to the need to rebuild the country could have been applied in Iraq but were ignored. And prior to the invasion of both countries the UN and the EU were extremely eager to help with the post invasion period but were politely ignored. And off course the biggest folly was pulling assets away from Afghanistan for the Iraqi invasion; at a time when the Taliban was severely weakened and when a large part of the Afghan population welcomed the presence of foreign troops.

Absolutely right on about losing focus on Afghanistan in favour of pi$$ing away blood and treasure on Iraq. As for rebuilding either country, you can not help people that hate you or are too stupid to recognize help when offered. It is hard to care about this mess when you are thousands of miles away and energy independent. Contain them and leave them to devour each other.

 

[Twain]

actually, I suspect that the shift in Iranian/US relations in the prev 72hrs was driven by some common interests.

Iraq is going to end up in 3 pieces. 2 sectarian pieces and a kurdish piece
if the rebels harm the turkish captives it will be interesting to see how long it takes to pull those divisions currently squared off on the syrian border to galloping across the iraqi border

the iranians have already crossed over - and there appears to be a shift of resolve with iraqi forces coming from the sth

Which will just be thrilling to Turkey since the US promised Turkey that one of the results of the Iraq war wouldn't be anything resembling a country called Kurdistan. It's going to be interesting since it's increasingly looking like multiple countries, each pulling on an arm of an octupus(Iraq,Syria) hoping to get the whole thing and not thinking of the long term consequences.

 

[STURM]

It is hard to care about this mess when you are thousands of miles away and energy independent.

Actually during the 2002-2003 period many Afghans welcomed the presence of foreign troops and they genuinely believed that there was going to be a 'new' Afghanistan. This was at a time when the Taliban was in disarray and before there was resentment with the Karzai government; then things strated to go horribly wrong, the Taliban made a comeback and there were lost opportunities.

 

[John Fedup]

It was Bremer's idea to disband the Iraqi army and to ensure that former Baathists could not seek employment with the new government. The biggest mistake IMO was not realising that it would take a lot of work, money and focus to get Iraq running again.

Paul Bremer on Iraq, ten years on: 'We made major strategic mistakes. But I still think Iraqis are far better off' - Middle East - World - The Independent

True, and he and fellow Neon-cons should have realized that long term endurance from the American public and coalition partners for this party simply was not on. After the defeat of Nazi Germany, key Nazis were utilized to stabilize the occupation by both the West and Soviets. Too bad Rumy didn't read up on past historical occupations.