BEIJING (AP) — "The United States advised U.S. carriers to comply with China's demand that it be told of any flights passing through its new maritime air defense zone over the East China Sea, an area where Beijing said it launched two fighter planes to investigate a dozen American and Japanese reconnaissance and military flights."
Chinese 'air defence identification zone' in East China Sea
- Thread starter cdxbow
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If I was a passenger on those planes I wouldn't care what the Chinese can or can't get away with, and whether they're in for a shock or not. I'd be thoroughly pissed with my airline that they're putting me in that position. Why would civilian private airlines play this sort of game?
2007yellow430
Active Member
Exactly. Passenger planes should not be put at risk here. I hope the management of the airlines either comply or avoid those areas.
Art
There is a possibility that this translation will generate misunderstandings.
The US advised US airlines to comply with China's demand. US aircraft carriers still are not complying.
surpreme
Member
I like to know if China can really enforced this new zone. Only a strong force with electronic capability truly can enforced a zone. Has China step its game up to where it with be a elite armed force with this capability. Only time with tell. US and Japan will test China ability to keep pace on what go though the zone. I'm impress with China and its will to improve its military but it still has way to go. This will show if China has improve it forces.
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Hi, I'm curious about precisely what risk passenger planes who do not file their flight plans will face.
My admittedly limited understanding of passenger planes makes me feel that the risk is small. Here's my reasoning.
1. Commercial flights should have their transponder on, identifying themselves. It kind of functions as an IFF. So theoretically a Japan Airlines plane can safely fly through and still be clearly identified.
2. If for some reason identification via transponder isn't sufficient and the aircraft cannot be contacted via radio, PLAAF can scramble jets to visually identify the commercial aircraft. They can then escort the commercial jets out of the ADIZ.
3. Chinese intelligence should be able to gather flight data from a plethora of online sources, figuring out where and when each aircraft will enter/exit the zone. Flightradar24.net will help anyone with a good internet connection track most aircraft live.
One thing to remember is that this is an ADIZ. Unlike Gaddafi's Line of Death, you won't get indiscriminately shot down if you enter the Zone. Submitting a flight plan shouldn't affect the risk a commercial jet faces - all it does is make it easier for the Chinese to identify aircraft in the ADIZ since they know when to expect what aircraft to be entering and exiting the zone.
On a side note, P-8 Poseidons are to be deployed to Okinawa. Please check out The Aviationist - I can't post links...yet...
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Welcome and good to see another Singaporean around DT. A few more posts, and you will be able to post links (i.e. new members can't post links and as an interim measure, I've inserted the relevant link in your post). This is a spam control measure to deter spammers.
J. Michael Cole, has an interesting write-up on the subject, called 'China’s dangerous gamble', with comments on the tragic fights (i.e. Korean Air Lines Flight 007 and Iran Air Flight 655), which is worth a read. As others have noted (i.e. Mike, posting with the handle, The Baseleg in DT), in this long game, recent intercepts of Chinese aircraft in Japan's ADIZ (i.e. Tu-154MD Type II ELINT platform and thereafter a Y-8GX-1 EW platform), may point the direction - each party is gathering intelligence on the other's electronic order of battle, as a third order effect with the ADIZs.
Hi OPSSG, thank you very much for helping me to add the link, good to see a fellow Singaporean too
I am aware of the spam control measures and I'm more than happy to abide by them.A side note on the P-8s: I'm guessing the new platforms will be there to monitor and gather data on Chinese surface vessels, both PLAN and Coast Guard. I expect that the P-8s will make many transits through the ADIZ, further testing the Chinese and their ability to enforce the ADIZ.
Those are all good points, but privately owned airlines don't need to be instruments of national policy.
As long as government aircraft continue to operate within Freedom of Navigation boundaries (operating in the ADIZ but outside territorial waters/airspace, responding to hails but not obeying PRC directives), barring further destabilizing PRC action, that will preserve the status quo in the area. Honestly, I'm surprised to hear the PRC didn't already send up intercepts on everything in the area prior to formally declaring an ADIZ. Legally an ADIZ changes nothing...if the intercepts weren't happening before, not having an ADIZ isn't an excuse.
China's Response Won't Be Military Strikes
Korean Air Lines Flight 007 is the reason passenger plans should be encouraged to comply.
Real question is would China create a demarcation they do no plan to enforce? Because by doing so endangers all of us by blurring their "red line".
China can retaliate in many ways that do not involve the military that would be just as harmful as a military strike.
Economic sanctions are likely to occur if Japan disregards this zone.
Korean Air Lines Flight 007 is the reason passenger plans should be encouraged to comply.
Real question is would China create a demarcation they do no plan to enforce? Because by doing so endangers all of us by blurring their "red line".
China can retaliate in many ways that do not involve the military that would be just as harmful as a military strike.
Economic sanctions are likely to occur if Japan disregards this zone.
KAL 007 has NOTHING to do with compliance to ADIZs. The flight of this Korean 747 into Soviet airspace beyond any ADIZ into territorial airspace was due to incompetence. Which was further compounded by the KAL crew’s total lack of awareness of Soviet attempts to contact them. Korean commercial aviation is well known to have major safety issues and KAL 007 contributed to the international intervention in Korean aviation which resulted in a major restructure. Which may happen again as their unsafe culture has resulted in the recent crash of the 777 at SF.
The Chinese ADIZ is an attempt to gain control over the Pinnacle Islands. Which were widely recognised as Japanese until the 1970s when the UN said there may be oil there and loll and behold China, PRC and RoC, both suddenly realised they might want to own them. This isn’t the first time that a nation has made claims they can’t back up. It’s part of a process known as brinkmanship.
China can only impose an economic embargo on Japan. They do not have the power to impose sanctions. Such an embargo would harm themselves more than anyone and significantly reduce China’s attempts to be known and respected around the world as a good trade partner. People don’t want to invest and trade with countries that let national political concerns interfere with making money. Go ask Egypt how that strategy works out for you.
The dispute over the Pinnacle Islands is best left to the ICJ. This is where all such disputes are solved short of war or the UNSC. That China hasn’t gone to the ICJ is indicative of how weak their claim to the Pinnacle Islands is.
My reference re: K007 was to simply point at the kind of issues which can arise in contested air space.
China's move to normalize economic relations has been slow. They are now trading oil in the Yuan and could strike out with the Russians to form a new WTO. Granted not likely but possible.
Seems you feel China isn't resolved to enforce a ADIZ. I am not sure. Seems like a bad time to bluff to me. Usually you want to have played aces at least once before you start acting like you have them in your hand.
Economics will dictate the Shino-Jap conflict. Of living standards fall far war may soon follow.
There was no contested airspace. The Soviet Union was very strict about defending its territorial airspace and KAL007 flew way of course well into Soviet airspace. They failed to respond to every attempt to communicate to them. Granted lethal force was not an appropriate response to such an intrusion there was no one to blame for the plane being where it was except Korean Air Lines. There was no issue of disputed or contested airspace.
I think China doesn’t have the capability to enforce such an ADIZ. They have overextended. It’s not a good idea to stick an ADIZ outer line 200 miles away from your nearest airport which is only 100 miles from the other guy’s nearest airport. And over the top of the other’s guys island. Japan has the radar and fighter coverage to make their ADIZ work and China will be struggling to impart any control other than receiving the voluntary filing of flight plans by civil airlines so inclined.
That is the most ridiculous response given with a straight face I’ve heard in a long time.
China has little capacity to undermine Japanese living standards short of actual war which would mean global war and disaster for China.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
But the incident involving the KAL 007 did not occur in contested airspace like is now around the islands in the East China Sea. The South Korean aircraft flew into prohibited Soviet airspace, and overflew Soviet territory, prior to being shot down.
Territorial claims aside (which needs to be worked out via the ICJ, the UN/UNSC, or war) there are several questions which I feel need asking about the ADIZ in the disputed or overlapping areas.
The first is, "why was the change made now?"
As has been pointed out by various sources, Japan created its ADIZ around most of the area over four decades ago, and IIRC about a decade after Japan resumed self-government following the US occupation and boundaries set at the end of World War II. For the PRC to establish an ADIZ in a contested area with Japan, as well as overlapping part of the South Korean ADIZ, makes one wonder if this is in response to a new, recent, or upcoming threat? Did this occur now because the PRC finally feels it has sufficient air power and ISR assets to operate an ADIZ, but the PRC has always wanted to have one (at least since Japan declared one)? Or lastly, this is an attempt to solidify the PRC claims to contested islands?
The second question is, how do the current declared (and translated) rules for the PRC ADIZ compare with those of ADIZ's belonging to other nations. The info I have gotten regarding the US ADIZ's state that the rules only apply to commercial aircraft intending on entering sovereign US airspace. They do not appear to apply to the operations of military aircraft (including foreign ones) or aircraft which are not intending on entering US air space.
So hypothetically, an aircraft could take off from a Canadian airport, flew south towards Mexico over the Pacific (but in international airspace) and then head southeast to land in Mexico, Central or South America, all without needing to declare itself to the American ADIZ.
From what I have read of the translations of the PRC ADIZ, the requirement is for any aircraft entering the zone to declare itself and abide by PRC instructions/rules, regardless of whether or not the aircraft is planning on crossing into PRC air space. Having such a requirement while operating in international air space is not within the bounds of international law as I understand them regarding the right of passage through international waters/air space.
-Cheers
Best analogy is Russian aircraft in NORAD ADIZ. We do not interfere with their operations in international airspace, but monitor what they are doing out of "interest." We wouldn't try to order them outside of territorial airspace, because they would rightly tell us to go pound sand, and that's the same game we play with forward deployed forces.
Overall, ADIZ rules shouldn't be a big deal when it comes to commercial aircraft. If you don't want to deal with queries and possibly getting shadowed by interceptors, a smart airliner will play by the rules and expectations. Playing the Freedom of Navigation card isn't good business practice for a commercial airline, which relies on good business relations to make money.
For state aircraft, they can still do whatever they want in international airspace. Which is what the ADIZ is.
I am surprised you feel China has little to offer in an economic showdown. Both the US and Japan would suffer if China started imposing embargoes.
Sure China would suffer too but the citizens in Japan and US would be much more difficult to manage in an economic downturn than in China
And it's more than that as well - it's a spirited attempt by the CPC to extend Chinese naval supremacy out to the First Island Chain and thereby control the Yellow Sea, the ECS and the SCS, the latter of which is host to over $5 trillion of trade every year via its sea lanes. This is not a game, as I'm guessing you understand judging from your posts. This is the most serious challenge to the liberal democracies since the Cold War and it's not going to go away. Look at where the US military is spending money and look at its deployments and redeployments. Look at what the PLA is investing in - missiles to kill ACs, etc. Both sides are preparing for a shock-and-awe campaign to neutralise the other's command and control capabilities in the region.
Yup. I wish that was hyperbole, but I unfortunately agree.
Their claims would essentially make those bodies of water their territorial waters, and (in addition to being ridiculous claims to begin with), that has serious implications for free international use of what should be international waters.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
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An extension of the ADIZ to a sea control area could be the next step. Are there precedents for such a thing? If there are I expect the PRC may try it if the ADIZ works.
I agree its a vigorous challenge to the liberal democracies, but I believe it is greater than the cold war, because of the relative strength of the PRC economy versus the moribund old Soviet economy.
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I spend a lot of time flying in this new ADIZ and haven't seen any difference so far. I did actually visually sight a P-3 operating in Chinese airspace not too long ago...There are 2 major airways that take traffic between SE Asia/Hong Kong and Japan/North America, so any disruption would have a major effect on commercial airline traffic.
The Chinese are playing with fire pushing this issue. There is little doubt that an armed conflict between China and Japan and it's numerous allies would bring large parts of the Chinese economy to a standstill. Don't forget they need to create 20 million jobs a year just to satisfy demand, imagine the chaos if exports took a huge hit.
The current Chinese regime miscalculated badly it's use of soft power with the Philippines aid debacle and they seemed to have put themselves into a position that is developing poorly for themselves in this one. Perhaps the economy needs a nationalism boost....
The Chinese are playing with fire pushing this issue. There is little doubt that an armed conflict between China and Japan and it's numerous allies would bring large parts of the Chinese economy to a standstill. Don't forget they need to create 20 million jobs a year just to satisfy demand, imagine the chaos if exports took a huge hit.
The current Chinese regime miscalculated badly it's use of soft power with the Philippines aid debacle and they seemed to have put themselves into a position that is developing poorly for themselves in this one. Perhaps the economy needs a nationalism boost....
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