BAE has just put out a video named "Solution at Sea"
Solutions at Sea - LHD - YouTube
Think they would be pushing hard for more work on the books as the first LHD is almost finished. Having seen Cantabria when it was in Sydney ,it really is an impressive ship.
I'm sure BAE will be pushing hard, they are probably permanently camped outside the new Def Mins office right now!
The questions that come to my mind about the project to replace Success and Sirius are:
1. Select the right ships for the RAN and have them enter service at the right time too.
2. Make sure that industry can participate and benefit as much as reasonably possible.
3. Make sure that you and me, the taxpayer, get value for money too!
So which of the two main contenders, Cantabria or the Aegir 18A class, can 'best' satisfy the list above and how would they likely be built?
If Cantabria design is selected, the build will most probably follow the same process as the LHD's, build the two hulls in Spain, tow to Oz and build and fit the superstructure modules in Williamstown.
If the Aegir 18A design is selected (and the ASC offer of 3 ships is accepted), build the first two completely in South Korea and build the 3rd completely here in Oz, modules built in Williamstown, Newcastle and modules and final assembly in Adelaide.
The next question, which is then the best benefit for industry?
If the Cantabria design is selected, then yes that could mean survival of Williamstown till they can start working on modules for the new Subs and eventually the Future Frigates too, but equally there wouldn't appear to be any industrial benefits for both Newcastle and Adelaide.
If the Aegir 18A design was selected, yes the first two would be build wholly in SK, which may mean the RAN get it's replacement ships sooner (maybe save money that would continue to be expended on Success too?). When the 3rd ships is built in Adelaide it would also mean that block work also gets shared with Williamstown and Newcastle.
The next thing is, what is likely to be the costs of each design?
According to Wiki, Cantabria cost Spain E238m in 2010, which equates to A$343m at today's exchange rates. If the build is split between Spain and Australia, add the premium that would no doubt likely follow building that way, add inflation, etc, and maybe you are looking at around $500m per ship, maybe less or could it be more?
Looking at the Aegir 18A design, the Norwegian ship (which appears to be what an RAN versions would be based on) It's build cost in SK is estimated at US$215.8m.
For an RAN version, maybe that rounds up to say $250m each for two SK built ships, the third ship to be built in Adelaide would no doubt be significantly more, would it double to say $500m? Maybe not that much.
I know these are just my very very rough figures, but it's probably reasonable to suggest that the RAN could have three Aegir 18A's for the price of two Cantabria ships.
Either choice seems to fall within the DCP allowance of around $1.5b for the project.
The next question is, will the new Government make a quick decision (as the Rudd Government was promising) or will they delay a decision till after the new White Paper in 18mths time?
If it acts quickly, I would imagine that Cantabria would be selected, that way it scores political brownie points by 'saving' Williamstown.
If it delays the decision, then it might be too late for Williamstown regardless of which design is eventually chosen.
My choice, (being a taxpayer that wants value for my money and also wanting to see the RAN get the capability it needs), I'd suggest maybe the following might be an 'out of left field' solution to both the AOR replacement and avoiding the Valley of Death too.
Select the Aegir design, start building the two SK ships and deliver them to the RAN asap to allow for the replacement of Success and Sirius.
Start production of the 3rd local build when practical after the 3rd AWD and start sharing the block work around to the three yards, maybe this will help all to survive till the new Sub project starts.
And that leaves Williamstown, so this is my 'out of left field' solution, as soon as Williamstown completes its work on the two LHD's and the last of the block work on the AWD's, give them the exclusive job of building the 6 larger LCH replacements.
Maybe there is a way to get a win for the Navy, a win for the taxpayer and a win for industry all at the same time.
Is what I'm suggesting a possibility of happening? Probably not........ oh well!!
Cheers,
