Firstly, John I endorse what you say regarding the need for NZ and Aust to sing from the same sheet over the AOR purchase.
NG, I am going to throw a curve ball with respect to the 1C Ice requirement with my following comments, but before I get to the punch line I will provide context for my thoughts.
Over the next decade a considerable amount of oil and gas exploration is to be undertaken within the NZEEZ. The New Zealand government is seeking an opportunity to create economic wealth from its O&G reserves as well as other mineral resources. It is also looking to increase coastal and harbour acquaculture opportunities as well as discrete and low impact seabed mining.
Post the Rena grounding on Astrolab Reef in October 2011 the publics view was that though we just coped with the emergency response. Comments were made that it could have been better if we had the domestic capability to respond faster. However, New Zealand does not possess the same capabilities to respond to maritime environment events and disasters in comparison with Norway or Denmark, two countries our political and media class have always used as a comparative benchmark.
Moreover, NZ does not possess a vessel with ETV capability. We as a trade orientated nation, with a GDP per Capita in excess of US$30000, a country which markets itself to the world as clean and green, with the 5th largest maritime EEZ, a country with 170 years of commercial maritime history, 2500km from our nearest sovereign neighbour, still does not possess or in fact has never possessed anything more than an adhoc ability to tow distressed vessels.
Trade through NZ sealanes and NZ ports is set to continually rise in the years ahead. Further Rena type scenarios or maritime environmental pollution incidents will happen. There is a discernable mentally in the public and political psyche that bad things will not happen to us, because we are rather nice and inoffensive folk. It seems to be some sort of cross between a new age karma trip, cognitive dissonance and the invincibility steeming from the tyranny of distance. Rena, Christchurch Quakes, Pike River are proof that terrible events of the expected and unexpected, the luck and unlucky, natural and manmade can, will, do happen right on our doorstep.
Lines in statutes such as the Resource Management Act related to maritime environmental protection are meaningless without the ability to police, enforce, respond and clean-up. With further development of the Oil and Gas resource within our EEZ there has to be some resposibility to respond and mitigate. The public are highly conscious and now Post Rena are attuned to any maritime pollution risk, mostly as a result of the BP debacle off the Gulf. This is a political risk that in itself needs mitigation. The government could find itself at variance with the public mood if the voter accepts and trusts the Green movements rhetoric more than the governments energy and economic ambitions.
Political risk mitigation would be very desirable, in fact it is necessary to do so. Inept and reckless not to. Sensible political management would suggest that a proactive response would be to add the capability to patrol, respond, enforce and clean up. Have that front and centre as a political concept to symbolise intent - to take the issue seriously. Give peace of mind to a concerned public and obviously walk the talk. Proactive works more than reactive. To use a rugby analogy - to anticipate and intercept against the run of play is more likely to score than waiting for the ball to come to you. Especially when there are holes in the oppositions defence.
New Zealand has two areas of weakness with respect to its fisheries protection. The sub antarctic and the EEZ of our dependencies and South Pacific states. These areas are more likely to be exploited by international commercial fisher interests due to our weakness and inability to patrol, respond and enforce. This has both economic and environmental costs. It also has costs with respect to New Zealand's international perceptions. Even with the Protector Project vessels we have still been limited in our ability to patrol the southern ocean. The design flaws in the Protector OPV's are fundamental for this Area of Interest. They are vessel more suited to Pacific patrols than to the more demanding Southern Ocean work. There is a real need for a RNZN presence in the Pacific since we are only a Navy which can deploy a single frigate that more often than not is operationally far further afield than Rarotonga, Nuie or Apia. Obviously with the OPV's redeployed to where they are more useful a solution is required in the Southern Ocean.
The New Zealand Government has had a long established stake in Antarctica, the Ross Sea, the Southern Ocean, and the Sub Antarctic Islands. New Zealand is seeking to add further sealift capability with the forth coming Endeavour replacement. The proposed vessel design has a requirement to be Class 1C Ice capable so as to supply the NZ Antarctic Programme. A vessel of this type is indeed important for us to carry out current and future defence requirements. We do need further Sealift capability and AOR. However, with the gap in southern oceans patrol, the ability to conduct ETV and have an environmental response capability, I argue that a 1C Ice capbility to provide logistical support to Antarctic NZ would be more effective on a specialist vessel that can conduct Southern Ocean Offshore and ETV/ER, as well as Antarctic and Sub Antarctic island support.
The Endeavour replacement and the LWSV are on the drawing board, they have been so since before the DWP. The LWSV is to replace 2 hulls, therefore we are a hull less. Effectively we are losing the utility of the HMNZS Resolution. There is a scarcity of hulls in the NZ Navy. There are major capability gaps as I have outlined above and this is exacerbated with the loss of that vessel. Since the DWP events have changed, even within these last 3 years. Known limitations of the OPV's, Rena and other disasters, the search for Oil & Gas has increased, the Pacific region is becoming more intensive geopolitically from a resource perspective. The DWP has not effectively addressed or even at worst case considered these issues.
Effectively, I am advocating for the next HMNZS Resolution in the roles I have outlined. The Endeavour replacement need not have 1C Ice.
Cheers MrC