As Bonza said, we can all wish that the RAN operated Carriers, but it’s just not going to happen.
Earlier this year marked the 30th anniversary of the decision by the (then new) Hawke Government not to proceed with a replacement for Melbourne, and here we are 30 years on, nothing has changed.
The very big and first hurdle would be for the Government to change it’s Foreign and Defence policies, that would be a big move, but again, I can’t ever see it happening.
And of course the next major issue is funding, currently the Defence Budget stands at just over 1.5% of GDP, with both sides of politics stating that the ‘goal’ is to be closer to 2%, and even if it gets to 2% it will be interesting to see if all that is currently contained in the White Paper and DCP can even be achieved at that level of spending.
What level would Defence spending have to be at to build and maintain a credible Carrier force without reducing the current or planned capabilities? Would it have to be at least 2.5%? Maybe more?
As for the ships, one won’t provide a full time capability, two might just get you there for most of the time, and three would certainly provide a full time capability. So let’s say it’s two ships, the LHD’s could possibly be backups, but of course that takes them away from their amphibious role.
Would the QE Class be too big and expensive to operate and maintain, or as alexsa said, maybe the Italian Cavour would be the size we could manage, or is something in the middle, say the size of one of the USN LHD/LHA’s be more appropriate?
Then of course there is aircraft, again as Bonza suggested, 24-36 F35B’s would probably be needed. To allow for operations, training, maintenance and attrition, it’s probably closer to 36, added to that is probably the need for a Sqn of Merlin AEW helicopters too.
Would you also add a flight of MH60R’s? And some MH60S, for example, in a search and rescue role too.
Facilities at Albatross would have to upgraded too for the additional aircraft, both fixed and rotary wing types.
And then of course there is basing for the ships, there has been the recent discussion of what needs to be done to FBE to accommodate the new LHD’s, etc, add a couple of Carriers and Garden Island is getting pretty crowded to say the least.
The Carriers would logically have to be based at FBE, keeps them close to Albatross, the LHD’s and Choules would probably have to be relocated, maybe a new base in Brisbane for example.
Would the Destroyer and Frigate fleet need to be increased to provide sufficient escorts for both the Carriers and the LHD's?
And last but not least, manpower. Would all of the above add another 1000 or 2000, or maybe somewhere in between?
All of the above adds up to a hell of a lot of money.
Anyway, as much as I would like to see the RAN have a Carrier force again too, realistically, I can’t see it ever happening. I don’t think I’ll see it in my lifetime!