Whilst I find the debate very interesting and informative regarding what types of ships the Navy should obtain to replace the ACPB's, I think the big picture question for me is, how much money is to be allocated for this project and what type of replacement will that buy?
The answer to how much (or how little) is allocated should be answered in the next DCP, which is due mid year.
What is known from the recent Defence budget announcement is:
* Early replacement of the Armidale Class patrol boats, acquisition of Hydrographic Survey Vessels, upgrades to Minehunter Coastal vessels and deferral of the Multi Role Offshore Combatant ship
* The replacement of replenishment ships HMAS Success and HMAS Sirius, and
* That Choules would continue in service after the introduction of the LHD's (which I'd read as meaning the proposed Sea Lift Ship project would be pushed a long way off into the distance).
The reason I have listed all of the above is to see how much had been allocated in the previous DCP for those various projects and what will or has changed, the amounts where:
* SEA 1180 - OCV's - $5b-$10b, middle of the band suggested.
* SEA 1654 - AOR's - $1b-$2b, middle of the band suggested.
* JP 2048 Ph 4C - Sea Lift Ship - $1b-2b, middle of the band suggested (this phase was in the 2011 DCP, but had disappeared out of the 2012 DCP).
Those three projects had a range of $7b-14b, the middle is around $10b, still sounds like a lot of money that has been projected to be allocated, so what's likely to happen?
The money allocated for SEA 1180 will probably now be split into three separate projects, upgrade the minehunters, new hydrograph ships (both classes?) and of course the ACPB replacement.
Replacing both Success and Sirius, if they are built or partially built here will probably consume more money that is currently allocated, so where does that extra money come from?
With JP2048 Ph4C disappearing from last year's DCP, that money may still be available to be added to Success and Sirius replacements, or it may have already been absorbed back into the overall budget after last year's cuts.
Or maybe some of the original SEA 1180 allocation may have to be used.
I know these fact and figures may seem a bit boring, but the Defence pie can only be sliced in so many ways and of course the other big announcement was the $3b to be spent on the 12 new Growlers, that has to be found somewhere too.
Getting back to where I started, the question I have, is how much of the original SEA1180 allocation will end up as the ACPB replacement allocation?
Will it be less than a Billion or up to a couple of Billion? That will no doubt be a big factor in what actually replaces the ACPB's.