Recent Syrian Air Power Strategy and Tactics.

[SignalGuy]

Today, I was reading about the recent use of fixed wing ground attack aircraft in Syria. The news service was carrying an excellent photo of an Areo V jet from the L-39 series. It was firing what appeared to be unguided rockets from wing pylon pods. I found my self wondering why the Syrians chose to deploy the "Albatross" instead of one of their many Sukoi or MIG warcraft. I formed some theories, and wanted to share them so that the many and more knowledgable folk here can either dismiss them, or, should I be close to the mark, perhaps even agree with them.
(1) The Syrians may be attemptimg to conserve their most valuable air warfare assets in case of a foreign intervention. Seems logical.
(2) The opposing forces simply don't have enough armor or anti-air capabilities to warrant the use of the larger jets. Also seems likely.
(3) Since this is an attack on a Syrian city, the government may be trying to minimize collateral damage. This actually seems less likely as the rockets look like some sort of fairly basic "point and shoot" type. I have to believe that some of the MIGs and Sukois have ordinance with much better accuracy and able to better " stand off" to avoid the anti aircraft fire.
I'm a fan of the Aero V "L" series ever since learning it is possible to own an L-29 for about the cost of a pickup truck! And of course I later learned that the real cost was in the hanger rental, fuel, insurance, etc. But it was an interesting thing to follow for a while and learn about. ( I settled for a pair of motorcycles.)
Please feel free to dismiss, correct, or agree!

 

[Twain]

I'll try to find the article that said this, but one analyst was speculating that Syria doesn't have that many ground attack aircraft that are actually operational. The reason being that Syria is out of money, they recently asked Russia for a loan. Lack of money means lack of spare parts. The essence of the article is that they have been scavenging jets and helo's for parts in order to keep some of them in the air. If I recall correctly, the estimate was that only half the Syrian helo's are airworthy and less than half of the jets. Apparently Syria wasn't that good about routine maintenance to begin with so the current circumstances just make things worse.

Well that and some of their pilots tend to land in the wrong country.

 

[My2Cents]

Since it was a photo it likely that the news service used old stock footage that the editor thought looked good to illustrate the story. That is the way most news stories are these days.

Does the plane in the photo actually have Syrian markings?

 

[SignalGuy]

Reply to Twain and My2Cents

@Twain: Great points, There was a time when being an oil producer meant economic sanctions had limited effect, I guess that immunity is now compromised!
@My2Cents: Another great point. However, I did go back to the photo. The view is of the right hand side of an L39 flying from left and high, diving to right and low. Estimated angle about 30 to 40 degrees down from level flight. Also visible is both flame and fuselage of a very slender missile leaving a pod. On the right side of the vertical stabilizer I can make out a three stripe flag, appears red-orange, white, black horizontal stripes. Think I see blurry stars too in the white stripe. Under the right wing, a red and white "bullseye" looking type of insigia.
@all: I checked the Wikipedia page for the Syrian Air Force, It's been updated and includes comments about Syrian L-39s in combat, and, makes mention that the Syrians are experiencing "technical difficulties" with their regular combat fleet.
Photo still up as part of one of the many slideshows at R(xxxxx).com (it's a huge well known international news service),

 

[Twain]

@Twain: Great points, There was a time when being an oil producer meant economic sanctions had limited effect, I guess that immunity is now compromised!
,

Syria doesn't produce much oil, about 400,000 barrels a day is all. When you subtract domestic consumption, they only export a net about 100,000 barrels a day, roughly 1% of Saudi production. Then add in that they only had two oil refineries in the country, so they actually had to import refined crude oil products so the net revenue was very small. (I say had because the FSA has disabled one refinery.)

The syrian army is apparently experiencing severe shortages of fuel right now. That is probably one of the reasons we are seeing/saw the Syrian army moving to Aleppo in stages instead of a large group all at once. The syrian military is not in good shape right now for a number of reasons, defections, fuel shortages, morale, poor logistics in general, poor maintenance, lack of money etc. They really weren't prepared for a war like this, they built their military around a potential Syria-Israeli conflict, not an insurgency.

 

[STURM]

They really weren't prepared for a war like this, they built their military around a potential Syria-Israeli conflict, not an insurgency.

Actually, this is precisely the kind of scenario the army was intended to be used against - the problem is that Bashar never expected internal trouble of this intensity and scope. For the past 2 decades or more, the Syrian leadership has always been more concerned about internal security, rather than fighting a war with Israel, it knew it couldn't win. Since the end of the Yom Kippur war, the main role of the army has been in internal security, in protecting the regime against internal threats and if needed, against low intensity threats from its Arab neighbours, and off course it later intervened in the Lebanese civil war on the side of the Christians - with the approval of Israel and the U.S. - against various left wing Palestinian and Lebanese groups. The army had also previously been used to quell a large rebellion in Hama, which was started by the Muslim Brotherhood [the key difference is back then the West wasn't so concerned about the killing of civilians as the Muslim Brotherhood was an 'extremist' group] and there was an attempted coup by Assad's brother, who is now living comfortably in London.

 

[Twain]

Actually, this is precisely the kind of scenario the army was intended to be used against - the problem is that Bashar never expected internal trouble of this intensity and scope. For the past 2 decades or more, the Syrian leadership has always been more concerned about internal security, rather than fighting a war with Israel, it knew it couldn't win. Since the end of the Yom Kippur war, the main role of the army has been in internal security, in protecting the regime against internal threats and if needed, against low intensity threats from its Arab neighbours, and off course it later intervened in the Lebanese civil war on the side of the Christians - with the approval of Israel and the U.S. - against various left wing Palestinian and Lebanese groups. The army had also previously been used to quell a large rebellion in Hama, which was started by the Muslim Brotherhood [the key difference is back then the West wasn't so concerned about the killing of civilians as the Muslim Brotherhood was an 'extremist' group] and there was an attempted coup by Assad's brother, who is now living comfortably in London.

The main role for the military may have been internal security in recent years but they hardly prepared for it. An army with 4-5000 tanks, ballistic missiles, thousands of manpads, hundreds of mobile sam systems, thousands of anti-tank weapons and only a handful of dedicated attack helos and barely more than that in transport helos is not a highly mobile force to fight an insurgency that is hitting them from all sides. It's a heavy army that requires lots of support and supplies, something they are finding out now.

Currently the Syrian army is unable to protect it's own supplies. Convoy's are getting attacked and either captured or destroyed. They are using their few operational transport helo's to airlift supplies to bases rather than using them for quick reaction forces.

Granted it's such a heavy force that when they do meet in battle, as in Aleppo, the balance of forces is heavily even overwhelmingly in Syria's favor but in small battles and ambushes, they are getting slaughtered. Their military may have been intended to suppress any dissent but as I said, they certainly weren't prepared for it. Their military has equipment and weapons made for large heavy battles, not insurgencies.

 

[STURM]

They were always prepared for internal dissent, they just never expected that it would drag on for so long, would garner so much support and would spread to all parts of the country. The 1982 uprising in Hama was pretty much large scale and if anything, the leadership never expected that another uprising on similar scale or larger than the one at Hama, would take place again. The main problem for the Syrian military is not that their weapons are not suitable for this role but their mindset, doctrine and organisation. If we look back at history, the classic response of most if not Arab armies - the Egyptians in Yemen, the Libyans in Chad, the Iraqis against the Kurds and the Jordanians against the Palestinian groups during Black September - when confronted with rebels or insurgents, has been to rely on brute firepower [this also compensates for the lack of tactical proficiency on the part of small unit commanders] , so the Syrians are doing it they only way the know how to.

As the question by SignalGuy as to why we haven't seen a greater use of air power it is mainly because Assad was hoping to avoid criticism from the West and his Arab neighbours. IMO it is this reason and also the worry that Sunni air crews might 'defect', rather than a lack of suitable airframes or spares, that reports coming in from Syria haven't mentioned a greater use of airpower.

 

[SignalGuy]

MIG action and shoot down...

I'm certain we are all following the many reports, and, studying the blurry amateur video, now circulating about a Syrian MIG-23 being shot down today. The video shows an explosive flash on the side of the aircraft, followed about 3/10ths of a second later by a suddden bursting out of a longer lasting flame. Hard to say what hit it but from the size of the first flash, I'm thinking a small missile. The MIG pilot appeared to be flying too low for his own good. So much for my theory about standoff distance!

 

[SignalGuy]

Additional resource found...

I have come across a very well developed blog concerning Syrian Air Force activity, with special attention being given to the use of the L-39. It is my understanding that I can not yet post links, but you should be able to use search engines to find the blog by including the name of the poster: Bjørn Holst Jespersen, and of the host: Blogspot. It would appear from his analysis that missiles are not yet a major factor whithin the Syrian Opposition Forces, and the MIG downing I commented on was indeed due to a heavy machine gun of some sort.