The shock that Israel will get after being counter hit by Iran will be huge, as it would instantly point out the reality that they ain't that strong and that they do have something to fear other then nuclear weapons.
The Israelis have carefully analysed all the possible implications that their air strikes on Iran will cause. I doubt that anything the Iranians do will come as a surprise to the Israeli leadership, which has had lots of experience over the years fighting in Lebanon against Syria and it proxies. We tend to forget that despite all the rhetoric and anti-Iranian propaganda that comes out of Israel, the Israelis understand the Iranians much better than the Americans do....
But as a thumb rule here one could say that after the war between Iraq and Iran, the weaknesses of Iran did become visible,
Of course it was 'weak', an Iran which had barely gone through the Revolution was forced into an 8 year war in which it lost thousands dead and had its economic infrastructure severely damaged BUT it prevented Iraq from gaining any Iranian territory in Khuzestan AND achieved its main foreign policy goals. It helped Syria prevent Israel from turning the Lebanon into 'friendly' Maronite controlled state, it established itself as a major player in Lebanon, it played a major part in the Israelis getting stuck in Lebanon and it defeated all U.S. and Israeli attempts to defeat Iran in Lebanon. By 1988, its proxy, Hezbollah, was had become the most dominant force in the country and had varying degrees of support from most of the actions, not just the Shia, due to its ressistance against Israel.
If anything, the Iran/Iraq war showed the resilience and ingenuity of the Iranians. Despite being badly hit by purges, having had many of their men fled Iran and being badly hit by a lack of spares and replacement for lost equipment, the Iranian military held the Iraqis off and against all expectations, with limited outside help, manage to keep their U.S. gear running. Unlike Iran, Iraq had no problems buying new gear as it enjoyed the support of many countries and benefited from 'assistance' provided by other countries, such as Kuwait, which allowed Iraqi aircraft to seek refuge there, Egypt which provided advisers and technical help and the U.S. which at a later stage, provided Iraq not only with military gear and satellite imagery but advance warnings of Iranian anti-shipping strikes air raids, courtesy of USN ships in the gulf. And off course, Iraq received billions of dollars in aid from the Gulf States and spent billions on arms from France, Russia and other countries.
Or do you consider this to be wrong? So let me ask you as one of the more knowledgeable posters here...if push comes to shove here...what can Iran really do? i mean seriously?
As we've discussed before, they can do many things but it depends on how far they are willing to go and how badly they are hit. The biggest fear, commonly expressed in various talk shows and articles, is the Iranian threat of using land based missiles and asymmetric means to shut the Straits of Hormuz - this would cause damage to the worlds economy but would surely bring the U.S. in. They can also launched Silkworms and Scuds at oil terminals at Kuwait and Saudi, which would also effect oil prices but this action would be highly dependent on the level of support both countries give to U.S. military action against Iran. The Iranians are aware that Saudi and the gulf states, though they might welcome moves to weaken Iran, are very worried about strikes on Iran as this will create discontent with their populations. The Sunni Arabs do not want to burn their bridges with Iran as Iran is a major regional player, one that they will still have to live alongside with, unlike the Americans. Other targets could included Qatar and Bahrain, both are which are very worried that they could be the target of Iranian missiles due to the U.S. military presence there. And as you know, apart from using Hezbollah to cause trouble in northern Israel - which they might not as it could provide the Israelis with a pretext to go into South Lebanon again and might increase pressure on Assad - the Iranians have a lot of influence in Iran and Afghanistan and if they choose can cause trouble there. And off course, the Iranians can launch missiles at Israel.
If push came to shove, and the Iranians really wanted to cause Israel and the US trouble, they could convert some of the fuel rods to a powder and put it on top of some of their missiles aimed at Israel. Would render huge portions of Israel uninhabitable. Probably never happen but the thought of such an attack would make every one reconsider.
Art
Which the Iranians, even if what you suggested was technically feasible, won't do, as this would lead to the sure destruction of Iran. Thanks to the demonisation of Iran by the mainstream/establishment press, most have the impression that the Iranians are irrational, which given their actions the past few decades in Lebanon where they have been involved in a covert war against Israel and the U.S. and have reached most if not all their goals, shows that they are clearly not. The Iranians calculate all their moves in advance with careful consideration given to military and political consequences, they are certainly not infallible and are certainly not irrational. Against all U.S. attempts to keep Iran out of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iranians have succeeded in maintaining a presence there and have huge influence there, with both Afghanistan and Iraq, to the immense dismay of the Americans, enjoying strong ties with Iran.
