The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
I very much doubt with such a small number of SSN's we will be able to guarantee even one with the carrier at all times in all circumstances.
I expect that the RN would make sure that at least 1 was with the group, having an Astute/Trafalgar deployed elsewhere where trouble 'could' start is nowhere near as important as pulling her back to form part of the escort. Therefore I don't see the RN having any trouble yanking at least one back from deployment early to protect their carrier.
 

spsun100001

New Member
I expect that the RN would make sure that at least 1 was with the group, having an Astute/Trafalgar deployed elsewhere where trouble 'could' start is nowhere near as important as pulling her back to form part of the escort. Therefore I don't see the RN having any trouble yanking at least one back from deployment early to protect their carrier.
Most of the time sure but all of the time I'm not so sure.

I don't know what the deployment rate of submarines is compared to surface warships. The rule of thumb for surface warships used to be every standing tasking took three ships. One deployed and the others to account for time to deploy to and from the mission, maintenance, work up, refit etc.

I'd imagine it would be a better ratio for SSNs due to their being nuclear powered but I don't know enough to say. I'd imagine at best we would have three on task at any one time (as opposed to transiting to and from mission, refit etc.). Given one is assigned to SSBN protection then that's two on task. If you always have to have one with the carrier because the carrier lacks such basic capabilities as maritime strike then that leaves you one submarine deployed on the host of useful taks a sub can undertake.

As you said in your post about Spearfish costs, for the relatively low cost of the NSM it seems daft to omit the capability. Though daft and UK procurement priorities go hand in hand.
 

Hambo

New Member
I think we will just need to look to the long game in many of these issues, some of the capability holidays will be closed when the economy picks up.

Taranis is aimed to have "intercontinental" range whatever that means? 2000? 3000? 4000? mile range so long term will we need to worry about long range UCAV on CV if son of taranis has such range from land bases?

The MPA gap may get closed, P8 the likely contender so take your pick of off the shelf weapons options.

SEAD on F35B? I would imagine in time Meteor would make the basis of a more than capable ARM with some funding.

AEW, it will have to be helo based for the foreseeable, but the AESA developments on the Typhoon could be an option for a half decent quick fix somewhere down the line. Spain and Italy will have similar requirements I would think.

Everything looks dire now, but it won't always
 

spsun100001

New Member
Everything looks dire now, but it won't always
Some good potential options there but with regard to this last point I agree. At some point it will look really dire!

After all, we were making defence cuts in real terms when we weren't in recession and the economy was growing so defence has never been a priority. Should things get better again then 'skools' and hospitals will always get the money first (despite both areas having their budgets doubled in the last couple of decades in return for declining standards in the case of schools and negligible benefits in the case of health).
 

Hambo

New Member
Some good potential options there but with regard to this last point I agree. At some point it will look really dire!

After all, we were making defence cuts in real terms when we weren't in recession and the economy was growing so defence has never been a priority. Should things get better again then 'skools' and hospitals will always get the money first (despite both areas having their budgets doubled in the last couple of decades in return for declining standards in the case of schools and negligible benefits in the case of health).
Thats the world we live in unfortunately, £30 odd billion is still a considerable sum and it isn't going to change from much more than 2% of GDP, the public don't care and our politicians have led us up the garden path over the last two wars. Iraq never had WMD, and its one thing saying we are protecting the UK from terrorism by being in afghanistan, but at the same time allowing virtually unrestricted immigration. "British citizens" visiting relatives in Pakistan are a far more direct threat to the UK than some farmer in Afghanistan, but hey, £17 billion and counting.

If we can avoid getting involved in Iran or any other conflict then there is a good possibility we can regenerate some of the capability we have lost that's a big if though.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
Most of the time sure but all of the time I'm not so sure.

I don't know what the deployment rate of submarines is compared to surface warships. The rule of thumb for surface warships used to be every standing tasking took three ships. One deployed and the others to account for time to deploy to and from the mission, maintenance, work up, refit etc.

I'd imagine it would be a better ratio for SSNs due to their being nuclear powered but I don't know enough to say. I'd imagine at best we would have three on task at any one time (as opposed to transiting to and from mission, refit etc.). Given one is assigned to SSBN protection then that's two on task. If you always have to have one with the carrier because the carrier lacks such basic capabilities as maritime strike then that leaves you one submarine deployed on the host of useful taks a sub can undertake.

As you said in your post about Spearfish costs, for the relatively low cost of the NSM it seems daft to omit the capability. Though daft and UK procurement priorities go hand in hand.
Whilst that is true, i'd still be highly skeptical that the RN would deploy any future carrier battle group without at least a single SSN on station.
 

1805

New Member
Ocean and the 2 Albions were already built and paid and had plenty of life left in them so you can't include them in comparison.

Tee_centre has already explained why 2 CVF are better than your 3 LHDs in delivering a carrier strike capability.

Now if you think the requirement should have been different; that fixed wing and amphibious platforms for the RN should have been merged then you might be onto something as it is, what you'e suggesting doesn't meet the requirement and costs more money.
All the ships were were discussing are built or under construction, we did not mention timescales, I was suggesting the RN should never built Ocean (no real requirement all it did was put an Invincible in reserve). But a single class of 3 (I think this could have easily been stretched to 45,000 built 1998-2004, 2003-2009, & 2008-2014, would worked out fine. A massive lift in capability and much cheaper than any realistic CATOBAR option. Also no dangerous capability gap.
 

Seaforth

New Member
PR opportunity lost

While the announcement of the 'backflip' to F35B is no doubt embarrassing to the government, what beggars belief is how the MOD and the cabinet office ham-fisted it.

A statement to the House and a letter from the Chief of Defence Staff to the Telegraph is about all that I've seen. Very dry stuff.

I work in marketing/PR for multi billion $ infrastructure projects. This is the sort of thing I'd have done..

The main press announcement should have been made in front of the UK's first F35B:
UK's first F-35 flies - The DEW Line, with a large Royal Navy Fly Navy vinyl sticker on it's fin or something, with opportunity for the press to video it taxiing around or (more risky) taking off.

Better still a joint announcement, confirmation that the first carrier is going to be an operational carrier and not mothballed and years earlier than 'planned', from the hangar deck or something at Rosyth (with orange vests and hardhats galore), and then confirmation in the USA that the F35B is the aircraft choice and lo! here is the first British one. E.g. Secretary of State in the US, and an Admiral or CDS or better still both at Rosyth. And get Sharkey Ward or another trusted personality from 1982 as the 'independent' expert to provide interviews on how fantastic STOVL is and it will be a huge leap forward on the Harrier, which was itself a stunning success.

What an opportunity to help sell this and help get public support back on track.

Here's the thing. The press like covering controversial stories, so when a story like this backflip pops up you have to get on the front foot and use that to maximum advantage.

And if you provide good video opportunities you will get more coverage - especially if you pay the journos for a well planned 'jolly' out to the USA or even up to Rosyth.

Cause if you wait and then try to sell your positive story later, no-one will be listening. We all know that good news doesn't sell.

No wonder MOD and the RN have problems getting cut through with government and the public. Very frustrating! :lul
 

Seaforth

New Member
Missed PR opportunity

And another few thoughts, the leaks for weeks in advance to supposedly soften the blow of the backflip, just served to:
1. make the government, MOD and Navy look like disorganised idiots; and
2. reduce the potential upside of an unexpected, well planned, well executed announcement

All that talk for weeks and weeks of 500 million increasing to billions or whatever the numbers were.

Big mistake.

The decision could have been sold on:
1. F35B is already conducting flying trials from a ship at sea
2. Britain's first F35B is now flying
3. F35C has a technical and cost risk in the arrestor hook issue
4. EMALS is a risk as it's new
5. F35B and STOVL means we can get a carrier operational years earlier
6. Great progress being made on the first carrier, and the second started
7. Two carriers to swap between for 100% coverage
8. Fewer personnel (I think that would be the case)

Going on about the cost increase just reinforced the public's view that MOD costs are out of control (even though the whole F35B->F35C->F35B issue has been driven by the politicians). Half the public probably came away with the view that the cost increase had actually been incurred, rather than cost avoided...
 

kev 99

Member
All the ships were were discussing are built or under construction, we did not mention timescales, I was suggesting the RN should never built Ocean (no real requirement all it did was put an Invincible in reserve). But a single class of 3 (I think this could have easily been stretched to 45,000 built 1998-2004, 2003-2009, & 2008-2014, would worked out fine. A massive lift in capability and much cheaper than any realistic CATOBAR option. Also no dangerous capability gap.
Ocean was already built and almost in service when the 97 SDR came about so you can't include that, the Albions were being built to replace the Intrepid class, there was no requirement that UK Carrier and Amphib roles would be incorporated into one, how many times do I have to keep repeating this?

Worth pointing out that there was a 6 year gap between Ocean going into service and HMS Invincible going into reserve and the decisions were taken by completely different Governments.

The ships you are advocating don't meet the carrier strike requirement as set out in the 97 SDR, again, I'm repeating myself again.

No possibility of a capability gap was invisaged in 97, the circumstances under all the requirements for these ships was set out are different to now and there's little chance the RN would of expected labour to cut the fleet in half while the economy was enduring the longest boom time since the second world war. You're using your 20:20 hindsight to win a discussion again.

So we're back to the ships that you are advocating building which don't meet any requirements, cost more to build and require well over a thousand extra crew to man.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
From Hammond's statement -

"Secondly, and partly as a result of the delayed timetable, the estimated cost of fitting this equipment to the Prince of Wales has more than doubled in the last 17 months, rising from an estimated £950M to around £2Bn, with no guarantee that it will not rise further. Technical complexity and the cost of retrofitting cats and traps to the Queen Elizabeth, the first carrier, would be even higher, making it unlikely that she would ever, in practice, be converted in the future."

So much for "adaptable design", & "future proofing".
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I don't know what the deployment rate of submarines is compared to surface warships. The rule of thumb for surface warships used to be every standing tasking took three ships. One deployed and the others to account for time to deploy to and from the mission, maintenance, work up, refit etc.

I'd imagine it would be a better ratio for SSNs due to their being nuclear powered but I don't know enough to say. I'd imagine at best we would have three on task at any one time (as opposed to transiting to and from mission, refit etc.). Given one is assigned to SSBN protection then that's two on task. If you always have to have one with the carrier because the carrier lacks such basic capabilities as maritime strike then that leaves you one submarine deployed on the host of useful taks a sub can undertake.
I'd expect there to be one with the carrier whenever she is deployed anywhere that she might be under threat from ships or submarines. That does not require an SSN to be with her at all times.
 

kev 99

Member
From Hammond's statement -

"Secondly, and partly as a result of the delayed timetable, the estimated cost of fitting this equipment to the Prince of Wales has more than doubled in the last 17 months, rising from an estimated £950M to around £2Bn, with no guarantee that it will not rise further. Technical complexity and the cost of retrofitting cats and traps to the Queen Elizabeth, the first carrier, would be even higher, making it unlikely that she would ever, in practice, be converted in the future."

So much for "adaptable design", & "future proofing".
Yep when the MOD even buys cheaper steel than is normal for warships you know it's all bargain basement.
 

1805

New Member
Ocean was already built and almost in service when the 97 SDR came about so you can't include that, the Albions were being built to replace the Intrepid class, there was no requirement that UK Carrier and Amphib roles would be incorporated into one, how many times do I have to keep repeating this?

Worth pointing out that there was a 6 year gap between Ocean going into service and HMS Invincible going into reserve and the decisions were taken by completely different Governments.

The ships you are advocating don't meet the carrier strike requirement as set out in the 97 SDR, again, I'm repeating myself again.

No possibility of a capability gap was invisaged in 97, the circumstances under all the requirements for these ships was set out are different to now and there's little chance the RN would of expected labour to cut the fleet in half while the economy was enduring the longest boom time since the second world war. You're using your 20:20 hindsight to win a discussion again.

So we're back to the ships that you are advocating building which don't meet any requirements, cost more to build and require well over a thousand extra crew to man.
I understood our discussion was around the total cost comparison between the F35b &c. You suggested a CATOBAR design from the outset would have been cheaper; which I agree, would almost certainly be the case, than the half measure we ended up with. Equally if designedd just for STVOL then there would have been even more options to reduce cost/be more flexible (i.e. 3 & docks).

You read to much into the SDR, as though it was a huge change in direction for the RN, or the beginning of something really radically new. It was far more evolution than revolution, really confirming the direction things where going anyway. The Falklands War having already re established the concept of a out of area capability (as you point out LHD/LPD repacements/new build already underway). It did formalise the process for Invincible replacements (30-40,000t design studies I think), but the fact they were going to be replaced, was really decided by their role in the Faklands (as had the LPD).

So my point has always been, with a modest bit of vision (USN having done so in 1973): Ocean should never have been build (role could have been undertaken by an Invincible) & LPD & Invincible replacement/requirement should have been merged (there requirement might have been mention in the SDR but there came from an ongoing requirement and existing ships they were getting near replacement.

I don't know where you get the extra 1000 crew (all but the last Wasps were steam turbine), ther aircrew will be broadly similar if you are operating 90 aircraft (fixed & helicopters) off 2 or 3 platforms. I would recon you would have a modest saving if you are not operating 2 LPDs (I assume the Ocean will not be replaced with the CVF so a saving there if reduction of flexibility).

We can argue over hindsight over the current budget issues, I would say they are less related to the current economic crisis, (although there may have been more flex if it was better times) than the irresponsible request of the defence chiefs. We have discussed before the huge jump in logistics/assault capability and the the CVF v Invincibles is another, but you could also say the same for the original T45 schedule.

While writing this I just saw Hammond on the Andrew Marr show, when question on the CVFs he said: the design study had spent c£39-45m with maybe £10m exit costs, and around £50m to build ramps on the CVFs so about £100m total cost. He also the real issue was the last Government building 65,000t ships without CATOBAR when the types of ships we had traditonal operated VSTOL were about a third the size.

Allowing for a political cheap shot at Labour, I would say politicians rarely put forward designs, it's the services that say what they want.
 

kev 99

Member
Fair enough I've had a look online and can't find any of the articles that talked about it now, actually they're probably quite a bit older than the 2 or 3 years I mentioned, the only 1 I can find now is in the Engineer and only talks about thinner steel used in the flight deck, but that doesn't match up with what I remember of the stories at the time.
 

kev 99

Member
I understood our discussion was around the total cost comparison between the F35b &c. You suggested a CATOBAR design from the outset would have been cheaper; which I agree, would almost certainly be the case, than the half measure we ended up with. Equally if designedd just for STVOL then there would have been even more options to reduce cost/be more flexible (i.e. 3 & docks).

You read to much into the SDR, as though it was a huge change in direction for the RN, or the beginning of something really radically new. It was far more evolution than revolution, really confirming the direction things where going anyway. The Falklands War having already re established the concept of a out of area capability (as you point out LHD/LPD repacements/new build already underway). It did formalise the process for Invincible replacements (30-40,000t design studies I think), but the fact they were going to be replaced, was really decided by their role in the Faklands (as had the LPD).

So my point has always been, with a modest bit of vision (USN having done so in 1973): Ocean should never have been build (role could have been undertaken by an Invincible) & LPD & Invincible replacement/requirement should have been merged (there requirement might have been mention in the SDR but there came from an ongoing requirement and existing ships they were getting near replacement.

I don't know where you get the extra 1000 crew (all but the last Wasps were steam turbine), ther aircrew will be broadly similar if you are operating 90 aircraft (fixed & helicopters) off 2 or 3 platforms. I would recon you would have a modest saving if you are not operating 2 LPDs (I assume the Ocean will not be replaced with the CVF so a saving there if reduction of flexibility).

We can argue over hindsight over the current budget issues, I would say they are less related to the current economic crisis, (although there may have been more flex if it was better times) than the irresponsible request of the defence chiefs. We have discussed before the huge jump in logistics/assault capability and the the CVF v Invincibles is another, but you could also say the same for the original T45 schedule.

While writing this I just saw Hammond on the Andrew Marr show, when question on the CVFs he said: the design study had spent c£39-45m with maybe £10m exit costs, and around £50m to build ramps on the CVFs so about £100m total cost. He also the real issue was the last Government building 65,000t ships without CATOBAR when the types of ships we had traditonal operated VSTOL were about a third the size.

Allowing for a political cheap shot at Labour, I would say Politicial rarely put forward designs it's the services that say what they want.
With the greatest of respect that's a lot of words for not a lot of content.

The SDR stated an overall increase in the RN amphibious capability by replacement of the 2 Intrepid class, retainment of Ocean and building 4 larger replacements for the round table class LHA. It also included an overall increase in the deployable fast air by the UK forces by aircraft carriers, the optimum option was seen as reducing the current number of aircraft carriers from 3 small ones to 2 much larger ones. This reduced the number of ships available to the RN but increased the utility by building larger ships, almost all of which had lower crew complements and more efficient and cheaper to run engines.

The Wasp class has a complement of 1200 crew+marines, go and have a look at the crew of the 5 RN ships you're talking about replacing them with, the difference is vast. Steam turbines are seen as very labour intensive so I'm not sure what you're point is there.

What you call a bit of modest foresight I call an enormous one that covers 19 years (Ocean ordered in 1993). We're not just talking about the current financial crisis but general cuts the RN and the rest of the UK military has received throughout this time, despite a boyant economy for the marjority of that time, not to mention all the theatres the UK military has been deployed in and how these have changed the shape and focus of the UK armed forces.

I'm not sure what you're point is regarding the USN in 1973, they never rolled their amphibious forces and carriers into one.

To back up what I was saying about your Wasp class not being able to meet the carrier strike requirement have a look at what the USN has done with it's America class, to increase the ordinance and available fuel stores they have had to delete the dock and it's still an amphib, not an aircraft carrier, so that doesn't really support what you seem to think the RN should have done and have a credible strike carrier and LHD in one.
 
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StevoJH

The Bunker Group
The RN should have produced a three ship 'Ocean Class' LHD instead of building Ocean, Albion and Bulwark.

Basically a (possibly smaller) 1990's JCI/Canberra class minus the Ski Jump (there is no need for it).
 
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