1805: you're forgetting something very important about the MARS deal. NO BRITISH SHIPYARD PUT IN A BID TO BUILD THEM!
The total cost of this lot is less than one Type 45. Sending the bulk, low-value part of it that no British shipyard thought worth bidding for abroad is not exactly a big deal. They'll be finished in the UK, BTW.
Rosyth is not building carriers, it's assembling them from blocks built elsewhere. When they're complete, its big dock will be needed for carrier maintenance from time to time. It could also do the same for the new tankers.
Building 13 Type 26 is much more work than a single carrier: they cost more per ton, & are more labour intensive.
The MoD has already signed up to a deal guaranteeing British shipyards many years of relatively smooth work. Getting these tankers built in the UK would require ramping up a workforce, which would then have to ramp down again. That's exactly what the shipbuilding industry has complained about in the past. HMG piles orders on it, then cuts them off. Turning the tap on & off breaks businesses.
OK, here's some thought, facts & vague figures comments from the top of my head.
As MARS goes, it's been on the cards since 1999 / 2000.
At that time, the UK Industry was still in a bit of flux. Cammel Laird had just shut / was about to shut / had shut & was reopened. Swan Hunter was up and running (
but only just), VT was thinking about the possibility of moving from their Woolfston yard, BAE SYSTEMS had just been formed & it's shipbuilding arm covered the x2 Clyde yards & Barrow. Rosyth was dealing with RN work as it always had & Harland & Woolf was running out of work, looking for something to do.
At that time the Labour Govt had proposed x12 T45's, 2 carriers, was talking about the C1, C2 & C3 options for FSC, plus the MCMV / Survey / multi-use / amagamtion vessels. With that build programme, the MARS tankers were mentioned (
with 6 units IIRC). The was also the LSD(A)'s
The govt had decided that it didn't like the boom n bust option that favoured one yard / company, while affecting another, so thought that it would propose a partnership option, effectively ending the loss of our skilled work force.
Work wise - BAE had the x2 Auxilary Oilers & the x2 Albion class LPD's at Barrow, was finishing the last of the last Batch of T-23's, the Malaysian Frigate project had just completed with the Brunei OPV's just about to be stated on the Clyde. There were rumours of other work for our countires in Asia also.
So the ship yards looked at their manpower profiles, workload & the future, thinking that what with the work that was coming up, they could gain a large slice of it. Swan Hunter, BAE, Harland & Woolf and VT all had the same thought.
At the time most the projects were only ideas / possible future contracts, to be planned, examined & prices / workload worked thru.
So time passes by & it's 2004....
Barrow's LPD's are late, the AO's are complete, but late. Harlands has moved goals, thought about the off-shore industry as shipbuild work has been forthcoming, then pretty much folded. Swan Hunter has been 'revitalised' with the news that they are building the the LSD(A)'s, gaining the work at BAE's loss. VT & BAE are talking about the T45 program (
with 8 ships) & sharing workload, to comply with Govt demands. Cammel Lairds has shut / closed / is about to close as refit work is thin on the ground. BAE's Barrow Submarine yard has started the design work for Astute.
MARS has progressed (
slightly), but the govt is reviewing how it wants to do things, with the possibility that the workload should go abroad, as the main shipbuilding protaganists in the UK will not have the manpower to support it / it will probably be cheaper & on time !
So time passes yet again & it's 2008.
BAE & VT are in full build mode for T45, with the Carrier Alliance having been formed to 'spread the workload' as our technical manufacturing abilities as thinly spread. Swan Hunter has closed in 2006, after BAE are dragged in to finish the project, following Swan's dealying the project asking for more funds on more than one occasion!
British shipbuilding is in a terrible state & the Govt is still looking at MARS. More determined that due to cost implications that it would be easier to have these ships built 'offshore'. BAE form a design partnership with BMT, who are starting to survey shipbuilders in the far east, who can do the work (on commercial quality projects), quickly & cheaply.
As the workload in shipbuilding across the UK is arranged, the govt sees the off-shore option as a good-thing. So MARS is very quietly put out to a few interested parties, to provide designs & costings. Amongst them BAE / BMT & Daewoo form a consortium.
..& here we are in 2012...
The govt has changed, the world is in turmoil over financial crashes & almost 4 years to the day, the UK Govt announces that the MARS program will go ahead, with the BMT / Daewoo / BAE consortium winning the bid.
So would bringing a £450million contract for 4 ships to the UK really make a difference at this time??
Going by our standards & our past contracts, it's a possibility, that they'd be late, cost more & would, as Swerve & Anixtu said, is a drop in the ocean, that may have kept x1 ship yard busy for 2 -3 years, but would probably close it as soon as the work was done.
South Korea's industry has a reputation. Come to us with a design, we'll look at it, negotiate with you & from the date of contract signature, we'll provide you with a complete vessel, ready to sail away in 12 months !
As these yards are able to launch a ship every month, with capacity to build up to 8 commercial large LPG carriers at once, it's a GOOD possibility that these ships can be supplied within 2 years !
Now thinking logically, would YOU pay for a new car, wait 2 - 3 years to get it & have to pay 25 - 50% more for it, to do the thing you asked the manufacturer make it do??
I hate to say it, it IS a good thing for the UK....
Rant over...
SA