South China Sea News & Discussions, incl Spratly Islands News

[TESamFisher]

China

China would definitely not go for Russia. I'll bet they are willing to take out all US assets in the area. Russia would be more likely to join China against the US considering its past actions (eg. Military exercise with North Korea, Arms deals with Syria and Iran).

 

[tphuang]

I wouldn't be too surprised with an Indian naval/air base there in the near future. Indian air presence will prove to be very lethal against China. India is much more experienced in warfare.

The news is troublesome. The big arms race is brewing in the South China Sea.

What are these Indian naval/air bases that will be so threatening? Let's not make stuff up here.

O yes, this is just the beginning....

of? Any moves by India in this area will be countered by moves around India. India's neigbhours are just as nervous over India (actually even more) than South China Sea countries over China. There are far more important things for these countries to deal with then trying to pick fights in the other guy's background.

This is worth watching.. more work for the diplomats. Hopefully India and Viet Nam stand firm. Logically this dispute would be elevated to some legal body for arbitration but somehow I get the impression China isn't too keen on this approach to problem resolution.
Didn't VN accuse China of sabotaging a survey effort in the disputed area not too long ago?

Well, here is the thing though. Vietnam can claim that area belongs to Vietnam and India can agree with it to legitimize its operations there. But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to who?

I'm not saying China is right to survey the area either by the way. I'm saying that this is a very complex matter and Vietnam is trying to bring external forces right now, because it's simply too weak to counter China by itself. I think that it sounds good and appeals to the local youth to stand up against China, but Vietnam should realize the military and more importantly the economical weakness it has vs China. So Vietnam government should not overstep its boundary.

India to sell BrahMos missile to Vietnam | Deccan Chronicle

This is sure to cause concern in Beijing. Not just the Brahmos but the deepening partnership between the 2 couuntries, both of which have had armed conflictswith the PRC in the past.

I don't think Beijing is sweating over this deal. I would say that there are also a lot of reports over the expanding cooperation between PLA and VPA. That doesn't seem to get covered, because people seem to want to emphasize this South China Sea problem.

 

[legoboy]

What are these Indian naval/air bases that will be so threatening? Let's not make stuff up here.

of? Any moves by India in this area will be countered by moves around India. India's neigbhours are just as nervous over India (actually even more) than South China Sea countries over China. There are far more important things for these countries to deal with then trying to pick fights in the other guy's background.


Well, here is the thing though. Vietnam can claim that area belongs to Vietnam and India can agree with it to legitimize its operations there. But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to who?

I'm not saying China is right to survey the area either by the way. I'm saying that this is a very complex matter and Vietnam is trying to bring external forces right now, because it's simply too weak to counter China by itself. I think that it sounds good and appeals to the local youth to stand up against China, but Vietnam should realize the military and more importantly the economical weakness it has vs China. So Vietnam government should not overstep its boundary.


I don't think Beijing is sweating over this deal. I would say that there are also a lot of reports over the expanding cooperation between PLA and VPA. That doesn't seem to get covered, because people seem to want to emphasize this South China Sea problem.

I agree 100% with what tphuang just said.

When I was reading the previous few posts I was a little bit uncertain of what people were saying, but because I'm no expert, I didn't want to really speak out against them.
And yes, it would be nice if people didn't make stuff up.

@Kalasag
How can there be an arms race in the South China Sea ? What country in that area can even remotely match China's military strength?

 

[Kalasag]

I wouldn't be too surprised with an Indian naval/air base there in the near future. Indian air presence will prove to be very lethal against China. India is much more experienced in warfare.

The news is troublesome. The big arms race is brewing in the South China Sea.

What's not to understand here? Did I imply there was any Indian base now or if there was surely going to be one in the future? Please reread the statement.

First of all, India isn't even a player in the South China Sea, but IF AND ONLY IF they had an air presence, it would prove to be a big thorn to China's South China Sea policy. And yes, I know that Chinese presence is great enough in countries like Myanmar and Pakistan so it would be logical to assume India is countering this move by developing closer ties with Vietnam.

First of all, the major players are US-ROC and the PRC. China's military presence in South China Sea is arguably the strongest. ROC has the largest military base in the Spratly's, and the United States has a form of power projection via Guam. In Vietnam, there's a very strong and popular anti-China movement going on, but there is a significant number of pro-China policy-makers. Vietnam is already listed as having a Most Favored Nation Status by India and the increasing military ties with India will embolden Vietnam much more. In the Philippines, the government is trying to invoke the MDT with the United States, as a counter-move to China encroaching the Philippine EEZ, but the US is still backing off for now, but they are helping to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Of course, there's still a lot of anti-US presence and even Maoists (that China ignores).

You should also be aware of Japan and the US bringing India into a loose trilateral.
Wary of China moves, India, US & Japan plan talks - Hindustan Times
Also a separate Visiting Forces Agreement between Philippines and Australia (which is inactive for now). Note that the Philippines has their own VFA and Mutual Defense Treaty with the US.http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/jsct/7august2007/treaties/philippines_text.pdf
Aside from the ANZUS pact and the Japan-USA bilateral, a major defence pact had formed between Japan and Australia not so long ago.Japan and Australia sign defense pact / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com

The US military policy in Asia right now seems to be aiming at encircling China. China is fighting back by showing some muscle, but it isn't in their policy to start a war. And the South China Sea was caught in the cross-hairs of an already existing arms race between China and the USA.

 

[colay]

But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to ?
China is unwilling to elevate the mattter before the appropriate legal forum andabide by international conventions governing territorialclaims. They co,tinue to mobilize to solidify their claims in the area and exploit its resources while bullying its smaller neighbors from doing the same.
VietNam is very sensibly putting in defense resources and diplomatic alliancesto pursue its interests. Both sides know a full-scale war is detrimental to both.. more likely are brief, violent clashes followed by disengagement and diplomatic maneuvering.

 

[tphuang]

But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to ?
China is unwilling to elevate the mattter before the appropriate legal forum andabide by international conventions governing territorialclaims. They co,tinue to mobilize to solidify their claims in the area and exploit its resources while bullying its smaller neighbors from doing the same.

btw, I'm not suggesting that China should be bullying its neighbours. It should be done through negotiations amongst party involved. Realistically, Vietnam gov't should realize it's at a weaker position than China and it is unlikely to get an equitable deal out of this.

VietNam is very sensibly putting in defense resources and diplomatic alliancesto pursue its interests. Both sides know a full-scale war is detrimental to both.. more likely are brief, violent clashes followed by disengagement and diplomatic maneuvering.

actually, the defense spending they've done have been pretty ineffective imo.

 

[colay]

btw, I'm not suggesting that China should be bullying its neighbours. It should be done through negotiations amongst party involved. Realistically, Vietnam gov't should realize it's at a weaker position than China and it is unlikely to get an equitable deal out of this.

actually, the defense spending they've done have been pretty ineffective imo.

Give them time.. as an example, those 6 Kilo-class subs they're acquiring will be a serious concern to the PLAAN. and I don't think they'll stop there. They';re not going to beat the bully into subnission, just give him pause to consider in any potential confrontation.. then inflict a bloody nose if it comes to use of force.

 

[legoboy]

Give them time.. as an example, those 6 Kilo-class subs they're acquiring will be a serious concern to the PLAAN. and I don't think they'll stop there. They';re not going to beat the bully into subnission, just give him pause to consider in any potential confrontation.. then inflict a bloody nose if it comes to use of force.

Vietnam inflict a blood nose to China?

You do know from DoD estimates, China's military spending is over 50% of yearly Vietnam's GDP.
In simple, China spends more on it's military than 50% of what Vietnam can produce in a year.

This isn't a year 8 bulling another year 8.
This is a 20 year old professional boxer VS a 7 year old girl.

 

[colay]

Vietnam inflict a blood nose to China?

You do know from DoD estimates, China's military spending is over 50% of yearly Vietnam's GDP.
In simple, China spends more on it's military than 50% of what Vietnam can produce in a year.

This isn't a year 8 bulling another year 8.
This is a 20 year old professional boxer VS a 7 year old girl.

Oh,you mean as far-fetched an idea as VN emerging victorious vs. The US a couple of decades ago? A couple of torpedos intothe side of a shiny new aircraft carrier would qualify as a 'bloody nose' in my book.

 

[legoboy]

I hope your joking.

How is Vietnam firing torpedoes at Chinese ships meant to scare the Chinese off ?

The Chinese would probably counter attack and it would be fifty times more deadly.
The Vietnamese could try and deter the Chinese by having a larger military presence, E.G. More Ships in the area, more advanced Fighter jets. but firing torpedoes is crossing the line and asking for war.

You have to remember the strength difference between these two countries is HUGE.
China has very little to lose in a conflict with Vietnam, while Vietnam could be decimated.

What does Vietnam have to gain from a conflict with China ?
I'm sure a bit of national pride isn't worth thousands of lives.

 

[colay]

i hope your joking.

vn is seriously investing billions in upgrading its defense capabilities in order to protect their national interests. No one wishes for war but they are preparing to the extent that they can afford.

how is vietnam firing torpedoes at chinese ships meant to scare the chinese off ?
The chinese would probably counter attack and it would be fifty times more deadly.
The vietnamese could try and deter the chinese by having a larger military presence, e.g. More ships in the area, more advanced fighter jets. But firing torpedoes is crossing the line and asking for war.

if a paracels type situation arose in the disputed areass, do you honestly think vn would sit idly by and let the chinese have their way. I see the vn investment in upgrading their capabilities drawing from past lessons learned and the paracels conflict is still fresh in their minds. Would they strike first, who knows? They're not stupid nor suicidal but they will defend what they believe to be their interests. .

you have to remember the strength difference between these two countries is huge.
China has very little to lose in a conflict with vietnam, while vietnam could be decimated.

the strength difference between nvn and the us was even wider but look at the result. You' seem to be focused on a wholesale war whereas i'm envisioning limited clashes. I think my scenario is far more likely.

what does vietnam have to gain from a conflict with china ?
I'm sure a bit of national pride isn't worth thousands of lives.

if it serves their national interests to enter into conflict, they will do so. That's their call to make and any potential gain is something that they can best weigh and appreciate. They are no strangers to sacrifice.

 

[legoboy]

I understand what you are getting at, but I don't believe the Vietnamese will enter a battle they CANNOT win. They have far too much to lose and absolutely NOTHING to gain. National pride comes only if you are successful, and getting slaughtered does not bring that.

Yes the Vietnamese Military is making good advancements and investing in their defensive capabilities, but at the end of the day, their military spending doesn't even reach 5% of China's.

You said it yourself, they are not stupid. No matter what they do, they will come out of a conflict with China worse off. So it is clearly NOT in their national interests to engage in a conflict.

I'm not sure how there can be just limited clashes if the Vietnamese are firing torpedoes at Chinese ships. Unless these are paper torpedoes.


Oh and if your talking about the Tonkin Incident, the Vietnamese came out of that on the bottom. The Americans suffered 0 casualties, while the Vietnamese lost 4 men and had 6 injured. How exactly is that a positive outcome ?

 

[STURM]

The US military policy in Asia right now seems to be aiming at encircling China.

U.S. policy is to maintain a diaogue with China whilst reassuring allies and friends in the region that the region will remain an area of importance to the U.S., NOT ''encircle'' China. A policy of encircling or containing China, will be counter productive.

Robert Kaplan has written that China is already surrounded by a ''Great Wall'' - South Korea and Japan [U.S. strategic allies], Taiwan, the countries of ASEAN [most of whom have more established defence ties with Uncle Sam, and further afield, Australia and New Zealand.

 

[colay]

I understand what you are getting at, but I don't believe the Vietnamese will enter a battle they CANNOT win. They have far too much to lose and absolutely NOTHING to gain. National pride comes only if you are successful, and getting slaughtered does not bring that.

Yes the Vietnamese Military is making good advancements and investing in their defensive capabilities, but at the end of the day, their military spending doesn't even reach 5% of China's.

You said it yourself, they are not stupid. No matter what they do, they will come out of a conflict with China worse off. So it is clearly NOT in their national interests to engage in a conflict.:wah

I'm not sure how there can be just limited clashes if the Vietnamese are firing torpedoes at Chinese ships. Unless these are paper torpedoes.


Oh and if your talking about the Tonkin Incident, the Vietnamese came out of that on the bottom. The Americans suffered 0 casualties, while the Vietnamese lost 4 men and had 6 injured. How exactly is that a positive outcome ?

Obviously VN doesn't see it as black and white i.e. let China have their way because they are bigger and stronger or face destruction in any war with China. There are many other outcomes possible andthey alone can be the judge of what price is or isn't acceptable to achieve their objective. And no, its not the Tonkin incident but a potential replay of the Paracels clash that they are preparing for.

 

[Kalasag]

I understand what you are getting at, but I don't believe the Vietnamese will enter a battle they CANNOT win. They have far too much to lose and absolutely NOTHING to gain. National pride comes only if you are successful, and getting slaughtered does not bring that.

Yes the Vietnamese Military is making good advancements and investing in their defensive capabilities, but at the end of the day, their military spending doesn't even reach 5% of China's.

You said it yourself, they are not stupid. No matter what they do, they will come out of a conflict with China worse off. So it is clearly NOT in their national interests to engage in a conflict.

I'm not sure how there can be just limited clashes if the Vietnamese are firing torpedoes at Chinese ships. Unless these are paper torpedoes.


Oh and if your talking about the Tonkin Incident, the Vietnamese came out of that on the bottom. The Americans suffered 0 casualties, while the Vietnamese lost 4 men and had 6 injured. How exactly is that a positive outcome ?

I really do not understand your position. First of all you are overestimating the ability of the combined PLA forces. It is only natural that China has to spend a lot on defense because they are a large country with a large army. Naturally, they'd spend a lot on payroll then they'd have to budget for research, production of hardware, logistics, etc. You can't just expect the full might of China to hammer down on Vietnam. They share borders with India and Russia, not to mention North Korea and some of the former SSRs. Then they have internal problems in Tibet and with the Muslim Chinese in Xinjiang. The PLA also functions mainly as a well-equipped police force throughout China, including garrisons in Beijing and their major coastal cities. And they have Taiwan to watch out. They'd also have to deploy some of their naval assets to the Yellow and East China Seas. They'd have to pay a lot to maintain all of these.

VietNam is very sensibly putting in defense resources and diplomatic alliances to pursue its interests. Both sides know a full-scale war is detrimental to both.. more likely are brief, violent clashes followed by disengagement and diplomatic maneuvering.

Check out how Georgia 'diplomatically maneuvered' against Russia in the South Ossetian War. Even the results of military engagements like the Soviet-Afghan War, the Winter War and even the Third and First Indochina Wars if the Vietnam War wasn't enough for you are proof that your concept of 'a 20 year old professional boxer VS a 7 year old girl' is absurd. Vietnam is self-sufficient enough and has great military tradition for it to weather an economic and military attack by China. Right now, having a bigger gun matters but it's how it's used that counts.

Vietnam never needed to match China's might, they only had to put up a good deterrence and that is what they are doing right now.

 

[Kalasag]

U.S. policy is to maintain a diaogue with China whilst reassuring allies and friends in the region that the region will remain an area of importance to the U.S., NOT ''encircle'' China. A policy of encircling or containing China, will be counter productive.

Robert Kaplan has written that China is already surrounded by a ''Great Wall'' - South Korea and Japan [U.S. strategic allies], Taiwan, the countries of ASEAN [most of whom have more established defence ties with Uncle Sam, and further afield, Australia and New Zealand.

Well, that's what the politicos in Washington say. I think America is still interested in having a strategic balance in the Pacific and having force-projection in the region. If they weren't, then explain the recent Wikileaks concerning American intervention in Philippine politics and the US investing a lot of infrastructure (as in airports, ports and highways) in the Philippines through USAID. Looks like America is building potential forward bases in the Philippines. Going off-topic, I'd add and this is my opinion that South Korea will most likely not be involved in a conflict between US and China, since ROK has always maintained good relations with China and they have never agreed to a trilateral with Japan. Same if Korea came under attack against China, I wouldn't expect Japan to aid any war effort or if so, only minimal.

 

[STURM]

Well, that's what the politicos in Washington say. I think America is still interested in having a strategic balance in the Pacific and having force-projection in the region. If they weren't, then explain the recent Wikileaks concerning American intervention in Philippine politics and the US investing a lot of infrastructure (as in airports, ports and highways) in the Philippines through USAID. Looks like America is building potential forward bases in the Philippines..

Of course it is ''still interested in having a strategic balance in the Pacific and having force-projection in the region'' - who is saying otherwise? Washington has made it clear that the Asia Pacific region is an area of prime importance and that it will continue to remain engaged. That is a profound difference from you suggesting that the U.S. has a policy of ''surrounding'' China, which would be extremely counter productive and would not make any sense.

Yes, American defence planners are aware the bases in the Philippines will be extremely useful in the highly unlikely event of full scale hostlities breaking out. Bear in mind that even if bases in the Philippines were not available, the U.S. already has beses in places like Guam and Okinawa, and for sustained ops against places such as Hainan or other southern areas in China, bases in Malaysia or Vietnam would be just as useful as those in the Philippines.

America has been ''intervening'' in Philippine politics or the country as a whole from the late 1800's - way before China was seen as a potential ''troublemaker'' - so what's so new or revealing about this wikileaks report? America is the largest provider of military aid to to the Philippines and provides the country with a security umbrella in the event of a foreign threat, though the Philippines is an independent, sovereign nation, it is natural that Uncle Sam would want something in return and would have more influence in the country than any other foreign nation.

Going off-topic, I'd add and this is my opinion that South Korea will most likely not be involved in a conflict between US and China, since ROK has always maintained good relations with China and they have never agreed to a trilateral with Japan. Same if Korea came under attack against China, I wouldn't expect Japan to aid any war effort or if so, only minimal.

All countries in the region have maintained mostly good relations with China throughout the past few centuries, despite the occasional war or severing of ties. The fact that the Koreans may have had good relations in the past with China provides no indication whatsoever of how South Korea would respond in any future skirmish or clash involving the U.S. and China. Any full scale war with the U.S. and China will most certainly involve South Korea due to the country's location and its ties with the U.S. After investing billions to rebuild South Korea in the years after the war and providing it with a security umbrella for almost 50 years, do you seriously imagine that the U.S. would not expect South Korean co-operation?? Would it not also be in the interest of South Korea to ensure the U.S. prevails and that it does all it can to be helpful?

 

[ManilaBoy]

Interesting insight about the South China Sea as the Future of Conflict, based on this well written article by Robert D. Kaplan of Foreign Policy magazine...

The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict - By Robert D. Kaplan | Foreign Policy

 

[Twinblade]

Our warships will keep going to S China Sea: Antony

India today made it clear that its naval warships would continue visiting the South China Sea for exercises and to protect Indian interests, despite Chinese claims of sovereignty over the entire sea.

Naval war games close to China beneficial: Antony

New Delhi, Oct 12 (IANS) In observations that could raise the hackles of China, India Wednesday acknowledged the benefits of holding joint exercises with global and regional powers such as the US, Japan and Vietnam in the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

‘The several joint maritime exercises with have had with regional navies in South China Sea, East China Sea and the Western Pacific have brought benefits,’ Defence Minister A.K. Antony said while addressing a conference of Indian Navy commanders.

The Indian Navy has been frequently venturing to these seas close to China for war games with the Americans and Japanese, and the Vietnamese.

However, Antony stressed the need to maintain a balance between the various responsibilities of the Indian Navy.

‘Although reaching out to our extended neighbourhood is important, you must always be mindful of the core area of your responsibility that mainly includes preserving and strengthening our shorelines and coastal security.’ he said.

Antony also pointed out that India had the ability to be a potent and stabilising force in the Indian Ocean region with major international shipping lanes passing closer to its island territories.

Mixed statements by Antony on Indian role in South China Sea.

 

[STURM]

Interesting insight about the South China Sea as the Future of Conflict, based on this well written article by Robert D. Kaplan of Foreign Policy magazine...

If you liked the article, his latest book, ''Moonson'' will certainly be of interest to you.