How are relations with the ROK? Maybe they can collaborate on the KFX?
US freezes arms sales to Taiwan
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StevoJH
The Bunker Group
There could be ITAR issues even with that depending on what US equipment finds its way onto KFX.
Possibly so. From a tech standpoint, it will be a Gen4+ fighter, downgraded from Gen5 but one can't disregard the political considerations.
The ROK has bigger trade ties with China than it does with Taiwan and trade figures are steadily rising. The ROK will also want to mantain ''friendly'' relations with Beijing due to the PRC's influence with North Korea.
Plus I think there is a deal that China won't supply high tech weaponry to North Korea in return of Taiwan not getting any as well.
So What about Russia. If Taiwan is ready to procure 80-120 new air craft then the deal will be too lucrative for the Russians to ignore.
The request was for only 66 planes. China has a lot of SU-27 family planes. I think Taiwan wants something "better".
The Su-35 hasn't had any exports as of yet, so an order of 66 will be welcomed by the Russians, but does the Su-35 meet the Taiwanese needs.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
First of all, tension in the South China Sea isn't going to significantly change if the US sells new F-16s to Taiwan. China is going to push its claims there regardless. If anything one could argue that if the US chickens out over Taiwan, China will take that as a sign that Washington's resolve to stand up to it is weak and therefore it can push its South East Asian neighbours around.
Second, what is China going to do if the US sells those planes? Break off military ties? Oh noes, those wonderful exchanges that have.... erm..... given.... erm.... produced some photo opportunities? Is it really worth cutting off military equipment to a democratic country of 23 million people just to save biannual meetings that aren't stopping China from throwing its weight around?
China isn't going to stop buying US treasury bonds over this because it needs the US to continue to be able to buy its exports. If China ever did start selling bonds it would be because they thought America was going to default.
Third, when is a good time to "ruffle" Chinese feathers? No, seriously. Because as far as I see it, China has manipulated a large number of US analysts and commentators into saying "no, we can't do X yet because it's a bad time". It's always a bad time with China. It's just before someone's visit to Beijing or Washington, or it's just after. It's too near to an "important" anniversary. It's too near to Chinese New Year.
China knows that throwing a temper tantrum gets attention, which is why it always overreacts. It's like a kid screaming at its mum because it can't have chocolate for breakfast. The only way to deal with it is to not give it the attention it wants. If you pander to China now, it will just get more and more unreasonable with its demands. Then one day you'll have to figure out how to say "no" to a 6 foot, 200 lb adult.
The sale of F-16s will certainly not effect the situation in the South China Sea and will not led to any easing on China's parts with regards to its claims. What I meant was that unlike recently, due to recent events, the South China has received global attention, and the U.S. has been trying and has offered to mediate because it fully realises that any future clash in the area could lead to something bigger. China, predictably has insisted that no 'outside' powers get involved. In retaliation for a sale of F-16s or other miltary gear, China could harden its stand towards U.S. invovement and efforts to mediate. China's cooperation is security and other areas, is also needed by the U.S. in other areas of ther world.
It's not about whats morally right or wrong, its about realpolitik and its not in the interest of the U.S. to approve the sale of F-16s to Taiwan. From a U.S. prespective, why risk another diplomatic spate with China, when the U.S. is facing immediate problems in areas, being military overextended and having economic issues that are related to China. After all, is not that Taiwan has an immediate need of the F-16s now to replace a fleet of jets that are inferior to the PRCs or Taiwan is imminent threat of invasion. Personally, I think that Taiwan or that matter any country that is paying in hard cash for hardware to defend itself with should be allowed to do so but thats just my opinon.
Has China been unreasonable - yes. Has it been acting like a spoilt kid - yes. Some analysts have described a number of moves taken by China, including the recent confrontarion at sea with a USN survey vessel as proof that China has not ''matured'' and is still acting like an ''insecure'', ''immature'' power rather than a newly emerging power which will soon have the biggest economy. The fact remains that China is acting no differently with regards to watching out and safeguarding its interests, than other Western powers in the past and in similiar manner is acting selfishly in pursuit of its interests regardles of what other might think or the moral involved issues involved.
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Right now, Russia see China as a strategic allies and economic partner. I don't see how 120 new aircraft is worth the billions of oil flowing into China plus the secure of their eastern border with China. Russia can afford fielding very little troops on the border near China. This will free up more military budget for other useful thing.
People always say China will fail and China can't do that, that if USA crashes China will crash. But after all these series of events China has proven everybody wrong. America isn't China only trading partner, its the biggest but not the only one. So if America ended ties with China, they can just move to Europe. America will suffer more than China.
It is evident that America is collapsing. Its just that the government and politicians are to naive to see it. America is in no position to be challenging China now. Best settle it through dialogue. A clear stupid move by America was the financial crisis, what was America solution print more paper money. That shows you incompetence.
I ain't a pro China supporter, but am sick of these people thinking America is invincible and pure.
People keep saying social unrest in China, yet other countries fall before China does in social unrest. England, France, Greece, Australia.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
If China isn't going to accept US mediation, it isn't going to accept US mediation. It's whole policy to that part of the world is to pick its neighbours off one by one through diplomatic and other pressure. There is no loss to the US if China becomes even more determined not to agree to mediation because it is already against it.
But what is this diplomatic spate going to result in? You're not telling me what the likely consquences would be. Remember that the US has sold plenty of weapons to Taiwan in previous years without suffering. China isn't going to let the yuan appreciate significantly if the US stops arms sales to Taiwan. It isn't going to stop stealing US technological secrets or enforce foreign patents more forcefully (until it decides that it needs its own patents enforced too). There is nothing of significance that China will give the US for such a gesture because at the end of the day it doesn't care that much about arms sales to Taiwan. It is still very confident that it could win a war, but it wants Taiwan to be isolated militarily so that it will agree to peaceful unification on China's terms.
Second, Taiwan does need those F-16s. The plant line is going to close down in a couple of years. F-35s are off the cards for many years even if they are eventually sold. In the meantime the F-5s are going to have to be retired. No one else will sell Taiwan fighters because of pressure from China. Taiwan's only other choice would be the newer IDFs, which are nowhere as good as a new F-16. And new F-16s would be a decent counter to what China has right now. Plus you know full well that China isn't going to give Taiwan five years' notice to build up its forces before the possibility of a military threat arises. It would wait until its military had atrophied.
But in any event arms sales to Taiwan are not about fending off invasion. If China wanted to it could invade Taiwan by bleeding itself dry. But there would be no logic in it doing so. Arms sales to Taiwan are about prevention instead of cure, dissuading China from taking military action on a pretext at a convenient moment or exerting pressure on Taiwan to give in diplomatically.
Also arms sales to Taiwan send a powerful message to China and allied states like Japan, South Korea, the Phillippines and even outside of Asia that the US is a reliable military partner. Give in over Taiwan and the message is that China has a veto on US foreign/military policy. Sure, it's fine if you're being attacked by a mid-range power like Iraq, but if it's anyone big like China you're on your own.
You're still not listening. China is a strategic competitor to the US and always will be. Today it's arms sales over Taiwan. What if tomorrow China demands that the US pledge not to interfere in the South China Seas? Or it says "we regard your military alliance with Japan to be a direct threat to our sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands, there will be trouble if you do not pledge that you will never support Japan apart from the defence of its four main islands"? Should the US give in over that? Where is the line to be drawn?
The only way to avoid that would be to abandon Asia and let it (potentially) become a sphere of Chinese influence. Even then China would quite possibly vie for US influence in the Middle East and Africa (it's already doing a good job with the latter). So if you don't find a way to stand up to China, you're saving more trouble up for yourself in the future. For that reason and those above, arms sales to Taiwan are definitely worth another Chinese temper-tantrum.
But even if I agreed with you that the F-16s shouldn't be sold, what about the upgrades to existing F-16s in Taiwan's inventory? Should they be canned as well? If so, does that mean the Taiwan Relations Act should be broken and no further sales of anything go ahead? If not, then China is going to get annoyed anyway and almost certainly throw a temper-tantrum. So what's the point in upgrading the F-16s but not selling new ones?
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No offence but is it a case of me ''not listening'' or a case of us both having different views?
I think we both agree that Taiwan should get its jets as it faces a neighbour which has the capability to inflict serious military damage on it and has expressed its willingness to do so if independence is ever declared. We can argue all we like concerning to decision not to allow the sale but the fact remains that the Americans, from their perspective, have valid reasons for blocking the sale. Taiwan should get jets that it is willing to pay for but the Americans are simply playing safe for the moment or are engaging in realpolitik. You need to bear in mind that in the larger scheme of things, China's cooperation is needed in other areas of importance to the U.S. - such North Korea, the Middle East, Central Asia, etc. And yes, I am fully aware that China is a strategic competitor of the U.S. but so are other countries. Is it fair to Taiwan - certainly not, but since when do countries base their policies on moral values alone or on doing whats right? In not allowing the sale, the Americans are simply doing what is best for their interests.
Irrespective of whether the sale is approved or not, it is not going to send a wrong message to the countries you mentioned, all of which are either strategic partners or are non-NATO allies anyway. The U.S. has already made it very clear that any invasion of Taiwan will be met with U.S. assistance - the fact that this latest sale has been blocked does not indicate any change with regards to this policy nor does it send a wrong message or lead to a lost of confidence amongst U.S. regional allies. Everyone is fully aware that just because the sale has been blocked at for the moment does not indicate that this will be so in the near future.
US expert urges F-16 sale - Taipei Times
Hard choices for U.S. on Taiwan arms sales - Air Force News | News from Afghanistan & Iraq - Air Force Times
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
And what cooperation China has offered has not been withdrawn because of US arms sales to Taiwan. There is also no evidence that China is going to suddenly be the US' best friend if it thought Taiwan was not going to get anything significant from the US. The Obama administration is deluded if it thinks that stopping/delaying arms sales to Taiwan will win significant concessions from China.
There is no country that is as great a strategic competitor as China, with its economic/military power and potential.
Are you saying that in your opinion this is the best course of action for the US?
Actually it does, because it demonstrates that China has a veto over part of US foreign policy. Today it's arms sales to Taiwan, tomorrow it could be something that affects other countries. You can't tell me that Taiwan is the US' lowest strategic priority in Asia. So if China gets its way over something to do with Taiwan, what does it get over other Asian nations?
Actually there has been a back-peddling in recent years that the US would intervene directly. All serving officials usually do is repeat the TRA. Besides, it's an empty threat if Taiwan's forces are so weak that they cave in before the US can do much about it.
Uhuh, and in your estimation, given the time it takes to submit a letter of request to the US, get it approved, get the congressional notification through, get the contracts signed, the production line to place orders for the parts it needs, etc, roughly when would the US have to approve the deal by to ensure that the F-16s can be sold before the production plant has to be shut down in 2013? Because I've read plenty of articles that say the US would have to approve the sale by the end of this year, otherwise it would be too late to avoid the production line shutting down.
Yes. Today is about Taiwan. It might be South Korea, Japan, or the Philippines tomorrow.
Other countries might also order some F-16s
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Let's assume that they don't for the purposes estimating the latest deadline for approving a sale to Taiwan.
The USA can still sell F-15 later.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Taiwan hasn't requested F-15s, and they are considered too advanced/too "offensive" to sell to Taiwan. Plus they're more expensive, and it's hard to say that Taiwan could afford them.
Let's focus on the F-16s. They're what's being debated.
Musashi, perhaps the price was not to veto UN action in Libya? Although it could have been something else entirely, I do agree that it seems like the US is giving in to China in this case.
However you talk about China like is an enemy, a threat to the US's prosperity. I dont think you can expect Europeans to support you on this.
I think China does ultimately seeks is to be rich and strong, with her smaller neighbours paying tribute in one way or another. They would of course like to be the military power in the region too. But I don’t think they plan to use military force far from their borders, apart from maybe Africa. Nuclear weapons prevent them from attempting to expand in a way like Nazi Germany or the Empire of Japan.
I dont see how the US can stop China, they are too integrated with western economy's and western governments are too preoccupied to attempt a drastic coordinated change in strategy, such as protectionism or cold war style relations, as these would be too painful in the short term
The US will have to learn to live with a lower standard of living, with more wealth being in Asia (although there are strong limits to how rich the average Chinaman can become), selling f-16's to Taiwan wont change anything
However you talk about China like is an enemy, a threat to the US's prosperity. I dont think you can expect Europeans to support you on this.
I think China does ultimately seeks is to be rich and strong, with her smaller neighbours paying tribute in one way or another. They would of course like to be the military power in the region too. But I don’t think they plan to use military force far from their borders, apart from maybe Africa. Nuclear weapons prevent them from attempting to expand in a way like Nazi Germany or the Empire of Japan.
I dont see how the US can stop China, they are too integrated with western economy's and western governments are too preoccupied to attempt a drastic coordinated change in strategy, such as protectionism or cold war style relations, as these would be too painful in the short term
The US will have to learn to live with a lower standard of living, with more wealth being in Asia (although there are strong limits to how rich the average Chinaman can become), selling f-16's to Taiwan wont change anything
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
This is a threat on military matters, not the economy. Don't confuse issues. China is a strategic competitor to the US and its allies in Asia. That is a simple fact.
Nonsense. Nuclear weapons are for MAD purposes only.