Russia Wants 'Red Button' Rights

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well that was the case until recently. Russia has recently approved sanctions against Iran, and cancelled a major arms deal involving S-300PMU SAMs. In other words it appears Iran has been cut loose. This was then rapidly followed by Russian proposals for a joint BMD. So in other words Russia wanted to change sides from being the big boy protector of anti-western states, to one of the western states. This is why the outcome of these BMD talks is such a big deal.
 

Deterrence Wonk

New Member
Russia's Protection of Iran

Yes, you are right. Russia approved sanctions against Iran, but they are limited. Sanctions in general are a weak action - just look at Cuba...nearly 50 years of sanctions never brought about a democratic government.

What counts are Russia's actions, like the building of the Bushehr Nuclear Power plant by Russian contractors. The Tehran Times published an article today about Russia's intent to protect Iran from the missile shield:

However, Dmitry Rogozin said that the United States might use the European missile defense project as preparation for an attack on Iran.

“The missile defense system is not purely a defensive system,” envoy Rogozin said.

“There are serious and authoritative experts in Russia and in other countries who fear that the creation of a European missile defense system, officially assigned the task of blocking a threat from Iran, may in fact be a pretext for preparing an attack on Iran.”
Clearly, Russia is concerned about protecting Iran. They may also be jealous of the technology.
 

wormhole

New Member
I think Russia is already modernizing its military as fast as its economy will allow, arms race or no arms race.. Maybe it would help if Russia could actually prove it can knock down ballistic missiles with some consistency, preferably w/o using nuke warheads..
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think Russia is already modernizing its military as fast as its economy will allow, arms race or no arms race.. Maybe it would help if Russia could actually prove it can knock down ballistic missiles with some consistency, preferably w/o using nuke warheads..
You mean by testing the A-135 system? Here's what I found in english.

MissileThreat :: System A-135

Apparently the most recent test was 2006, and successful.

ИÑпытание противоракеты ÑиÑтемы Ð-135 - ÐовоÑти - СтратегичеÑкое Ñдерное вооружение РоÑÑии

More on it in Russian here: Ïîëèãîíû Ñåìèïàëàòèíñê, Ñàðû-Øàãàí. Ëè÷íûé âçãëÿä.

I'll try to translate it a little later.
 

My2Cents

Active Member
You mean by testing the A-135 system?
What about the S-300VM (may be the A-135 replacement) or the S-500 (supposedly in 2014)?

Though none of the 3 appear as capable as the SM-3, which is what I believe is what is currently plan.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The S-300VM is not the A-135 replacement, rather a supplement with minimal strategic BMD significance. The A-135 was modernized in the 90s but as of right now no replacement is in the works. The S-500 is to have significant strategic BMD capability, but will supplement not replace the A-135M. It will also be in service along side with the S-300VM4 (the latest variant).
 

wormhole

New Member
I wonder how confident the US and NATO would be of Russian claims to success in intercepting incoming ballistic targets? Its a good thing that the nukes have been replaced by blast-fragmentation warheads as EMP and radiation hazards are very serious concerns.

The thing is, the US, Israel and China have demonstrated precise hit-to-kill capability. This provides unambiguous proof the warhead has been destroyed, as evidenced by a brilliant flash detectable by space and surface sensors. No wasted shots of precious ABMs "just to make sure". No flash from impact, you know you have more work to do and fire off another interceptor. At least you know the status of the threat.

With high-explosive warheads, what assurance does one have that the hardened warhead has indeed been neutralized. You could keep firing from your limited stock of ABMs until hopefully it disappears from the radar screen but so long as it keeps coming, you have to assume it still a threat right? You'll run out of ABMs pretty quick in such a scenario.
 

artstyle

New Member
if not israel,

is israel participating in the missile shield? if not

should'nt israel be the first country participating in the shield if they really see "iran" as a potential threat ?
 

Arthicrex

New Member
I think the possibility of Japan issuing export license of SM-3s to Europe will be affected if Russia is involved in the missile shield project.
 

My2Cents

Active Member
is israel participating in the missile shield? if not should'nt israel be the first country participating in the shield if they really see "iran" as a potential threat ?
Israel cannot be covered by a site that protects Europe, and vis versa. There are also the political issues in the Arab world from being linked to Israel on a project.

Israel has been negotiating to buy SM-3 missiles, and has some capability in the domestically produced Arrow series of ABMs. So yes, they are working on it.

Turkey is another state not covered, but the shorter range from Iran makes something like the Patriot PAC-3 or S-400 more appropriate.
 

wormhole

New Member
Israel cannot be covered by a site that protects Europe, and vis versa. There are also the political issues in the Arab world from being linked to Israel on a project.

Israel has been negotiating to buy SM-3 missiles, and has some capability in the domestically produced Arrow series of ABMs. So yes, they are working on it.

Turkey is another state not covered, but the shorter range from Iran makes something like the Patriot PAC-3 or S-400 more appropriate.
Turkey wants a major say in the operation of the missile shield should they play host to any part of the system. They've insisted that the shield should not be targeted against Iran. They've floated the idea of having a Turkish commander for the missile shield instead of having it fall under the established NATO command structure. It may be easier for NATO to just leave the Turks out of the program with such conditions.
Turkey has its own plans to put up a missile shield and was looking at acquiring BMD systems from several foreign suppliers. If they joined the NATO missile shield, they could save a significant amount of money. It would appear to be a no-brainer since they are a NATO member but it seems national pride and politics may dictate a different outcome.
 

wormhole

New Member
There's actually been pressure from NATO on Turkey not to buy Russian SAM or BMD systems. They've threatened not to allow them to be connected to NATO information systems.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÍÀÒÎ ïðèçâàëî Òóðöèþ íå ïîêóïàòü ñèñòåìû ÏÂÎ è ÏÐÎ ó Ðîññèè
Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: ÍÀÒÎ ïðåäëîæèëî Òóðöèè îòêàçàòüñÿ îò ðîññèéñêèõ ÇÐÊ
Really? I didn't know that. What was NATO's reaction when Greece bought the S-300 system? There is talk that they will be upgrading to the S-400 as well.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Cyprus bought the S-300PMU, which was then moved to Greece when Turkey put diplomatic pressure on them. They did buy the Tor-M1.
 

wormhole

New Member
Cyprus bought the S-300PMU, which was then moved to Greece when Turkey put diplomatic pressure on them. They did buy the Tor-M1.
OK thanks for the info. I'm curious to see if the report of an upgrade to S-400 is accurate and what, if any, the NATO reaction will be.
 

Deterrence Wonk

New Member
I think Russia is already modernizing its military as fast as its economy will allow, arms race or no arms race.. Maybe it would help if Russia could actually prove it can knock down ballistic missiles with some consistency, preferably w/o using nuke warheads..
I agree, they hoodwinked the US over START. They were well below the levels they negotiated to, now the US is committed to unilateral disarmament, while Russia is developing a new 15-MIRV ICBM and new SLBM.
 

Deterrence Wonk

New Member
The New SATAN

Speaking of Missile defense, it appears that Russia is concerned enough over the US shield's effectiveness that they have designed a new missile to counteract it.

Now whether or not they will be able to produce them in a quantity that will be sufficient enough to make them economical, is another question. The New START limits may be too much of an impedance here.

that's why I wonder if they may use this new missile a a bargaining chip, and threaten to exit New START if the missile shield is built.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I agree, they hoodwinked the US over START. They were well below the levels they negotiated to, now the US is committed to unilateral disarmament, while Russia is developing a new 15-MIRV ICBM and new SLBM.
Well yes and no. In the short-medium term yes. But in the long term START will limit what they can deploy and keep in service.
 

wormhole

New Member
Speaking of Missile defense, it appears that Russia is concerned enough over the US shield's effectiveness that they have designed a new missile to counteract it.

Now whether or not they will be able to produce them in a quantity that will be sufficient enough to make them economical, is another question. The New START limits may be too much of an impedance here.

that's why I wonder if they may use this new missile a a bargaining chip, and threaten to exit New START if the missile shield is built.
They must be referring to the RS-24, the MIRVed version of the Topol ICBM. I think the Russians will build a sufficient quantity of these missiles, regardless the outcome of the missile shield issue.

For one thing, the missile shield isn't intended to counter Russian ICBMs. The SS-18s are growing old and will need to be replaced one day and the new missile. fits the bill.
 
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