The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

1805

New Member
If you didn't mis-quote me then why are you at last acknowleding what I've said in the paragraph below?



The RN Could not afford the carriers no matter which way they were ordered, you can either order then both at once which means more expense now but less overall or order them one at a time which costs less up front and more overall, either way it doesn't matter, they still haven't got the money.

It doesn't even matter if they are the best or not either, the argument is irrevelevant because CVF could of been new build Invincible's and the RN couldn't of afforded them either.

The only way new aircraft carriers become affordable is if the MOD budget is increased now, or you invent a time machine and convince the Government to increase the budget when business is booming; around 2004 when all the cost overruns with Typhoon, Astute, MRA4 etc are known about. Because that is what needed to happen to stop this current mess the MOD is in. While you're at it you can convince all the politicians to stop burying their heads in the sand about how much it costs to build things in this country, until that happens the MOD budget will never be under control.
I don't accept it is more expensive to build in series rather than than together and none one here has provided any logic to suggest otherwise. When questioned I did.

This is all in the past (but relevant for the future) however I have always acknowedged that other areas also needed to be address in the RN: T45/Astute/Assault Fleet. Mind my answer to these is the same, they were all built to close together.
 

1805

New Member
Gordon Brown coughed last year to Parliament that both wars had cost £20billion, which includes an increase of the development and reconstruction budget. The Special Reserve would have paid for some such as UOR's but it doesn't pay for replacing worn out equipment, the vast training effort , nor does it include the health bill for the wounded or the future benefit bill.

We all know Govts give with one hand and take with the other, do you really think those costs have not impacted on the frontline? or that the UK armed forces would not be structured differently without those conflicts, or that we might have seen modest rises in the general MOD budget that might have paid for a few more subs, frigates or helos?

I can think of several items of kit that were binned prematurely simply because they were not considered relevant to two specific conflicts, namely Jaguar - retired despite an excellent upgrade in targetting optics, Sea Harrier - no use in Afghanistan apparently, whereas we will leave Afghanistan in a few years with hordes of vehicles that that can resist roadside bombs but might prove inadequate in any other theatre.

The last government skimped on the MOD budget and skimped on the cost of both wars rather than find the money, unfortunately the current administration will be no better, I will wait to see what else gets cut because we have spent god knows how much blowing holes in the Libyan desert.
I agree with most of your post, I don't think the wars have been of any value, losing in Afghanistan will do the same damage to the West as it did in Vietnam.

But the MOD/Defence chiefs need to be more responsible with how they order and budget for kit. The money has there and savings could be made. Rememer it is not the Government's money it is ours.
 

kev 99

Member
I don't accept it is more expensive to build in series rather than than together and none one here has provided any logic to suggest otherwise. When questioned I did.
Logic? I must of missed the logic you provided, what I did see was a lot of opinions about building a RN procurement model based on that used by the USN (loL). Unit cost goes down when you build things in bigger lots, likewise placing orders in multiples means cost goes down because the manufacturer has guarenteed work, if you can't accept this then that's you're problem, but that is the way it works.

This is all in the past (but relevant for the future) however I have always acknowedged that other areas also needed to be address in the RN: T45/Astute/Assault Fleet. Mind my answer to these is the same, they were all built to close together.
Astute certainly is not being built to close together, it's being deliberately slowed down to keep in the industrial base intact for the Vanguard Successor programme, and in fact the build cycle is being carefully managed because it's a special case keeping the skills intact to keep the programme on track.
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Indeed £10B ??

The x2 carriers were originally in the region of £4B, with the figure increasing to £5B before the SDSR. Since then I've heard it go up to £6.2B, due to the SDSR & 'other delays'.

Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carrier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


So the question is, WHERE did you hear £10B ??

SA :argue
10 billion is the figure for the total program cost, including air wing and the cost of fitting out the dock, design work etc. The actual unit cost of the carriers isn't anywhere near that and that's widely understood. The MOD included a rebuttal in their recent mailout.

Ian
 

1805

New Member
Logic? I must of missed the logic you provided, what I did see was a lot of opinions about building a RN procurement model based on that used by the USN (loL). Unit cost goes down when you build things in bigger lots, likewise placing orders in multiples means cost goes down because the manufacturer has guarenteed work, if you can't accept this then that's you're problem, but that is the way it works.



Astute certainly is not being built to close together, it's being deliberately slowed down to keep in the industrial base intact for the Vanguard Successor programme, and in fact the build cycle is being carefully managed because it's a special case keeping the skills intact to keep the programme on track.
Unit cost goes down if you are in a production line enviroment, not when it is virtually bespoke build. The guarantee of work is more relevant over the industrial cycle.

The Astutes are being slow now yes.
 
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kev 99

Member
Unit cost goes done if you are in a production line enviroment, not when it is virtually bespoke build. The guarantee of work is more relevant over the industrial cycle.

The Astutes are being slow now yes.
You should try proof reading you replies, people might take you more seriously if you included less spelling mistakes or at least used the correct words.

I'm no expert on ship building but I would suggest that warships of a single class are built on something like a production line anyway, after all you don't build them by hand you still need heavy plant machinery, jigs etc which all need to be made up/programmed/whatever to build parts.

Guarantee over industrial cycle is nonsense, your way the ship yard has no guarantees, it has an order for 1 item and might or might not have another order for another 1 item years down the line, if you order single items they cost more.
 

1805

New Member
You should try proof reading you replies, people might take you more seriously if you included less spelling mistakes or at least used the correct words.

I'm no expert on ship building but I would suggest that warships of a single class are built on something like a production line anyway, after all you don't build them by hand you still need heavy plant machinery, jigs etc which all need to be made up/programmed/whatever to build parts.

Guarantee over industrial cycle is nonsense, your way the ship yard has no guarantees, it has an order for 1 item and might or might not have another order for another 1 item years down the line, if you order single items they cost more.
It's not a guarantee of work a company expects it’s the likelihood to receive it; a successful car manufacturer is not sustained in business by guarantees of work but predictable sales volumes. There is more likely with a series production over a greater period of time. The current approach will lead to feast and famine.
 

Systems Adict

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
....This company is an major part of the problem, there is far to close a relationship with BAE and Government/civil servants/defence personnel.

It's time there was consideration in breaking up BAE. It made sense to merge defence companies in similar areas but not across the whole sector. I don't think it has worked for either the company or Government.
1805......

YOU of all people should FULLY UNDERSTAND defence procurement. After all it is YOUR BUSINESS !

If a supplier isn't fully 'au-fait' with his customer, how will the customer be able to get the product he REALLY wants for the right price, & how will the Supplier make the best deal & REALLY get the most money for the shareholders ?

Defence DOES NOT lend itself to general procurement, although industry is trying to drive defence down the 'COTS / Just-In-Time' route. The only way that can happen is if the customer & the supplier are living 'out-of-each-others-pockets'.

...& as for your 'breakup BAE' comment. Well just remember why the UK defence industry is in the state it is in.

The UK Govt DEMANDED IT !!!

THEY insisted on the mergers / buyouts, as they KNEW that without it, the industry would go under.

So, now you suggest they 'break them up'.



How do we do this ??



Do you think UK PLC can stomach the costs of it?

Is there enough workload to even consider it ?

Or is this a ploy to kill heavy defence manufacturing in the UK, so that UK PLC has no option to buy products from other nations, while giving away the tactical advantage of having a foreign nation being aware of your vessels TOTAL capability ??

IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE !!!!!

Rant over, I'm Rage Quitting !

SA

:nutkick
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Without the aircraft carriers the RN is somewhat slightly larger than the RAN with the same problems in regard to ship building. This was discussed in the RAN thread sometime ago with a possible solution, but one needs foresight from the government to implement, post 5664 from AG.

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/n...navy-discussions-updates-5905-378/#post221541

Not sure if all of the RN could be built out of the one location including carriers but it will stop the boom bust cycle for defence at the end of one type of built realign for a different run or build frigate and destroyer on the same hull.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Do you have any sources about the Jaguar's TO/Landing speeds? I find it surprising that it would be rated worse than Phantoms, which when loaded had the reputation of ground lovers. I'd have thought that with all the wing lift devices the Jag would be better than the Phantom.
Dassault successfully lobbied to have the Jaguar M project teminated in favour of the Super Etendard, the official reason was the Jaguars carrier lauch, recovery and fly around performance with one engine out was insufficient. One wonders how the vastly inferior, significantly more expensive, single engined Super Etendard would have performed with its one and only engine out.

The Jaguar was more manuverable than the Phantom and had superior land based TO and landing performance, was lighter than the Phantom so therefore it is difficult to believe that the Jaguar M would have had inferior carrier launch or recovery performance. The Jaguar M was launched and recovered from Clemenceau, which I don't believe was able to operate anything as large and heavy as a Buccaneer, so I would suggest the Jag could have easily operated from the RNs existing carrier.
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9TJuWLXIPc"]‪SEPECAT Jaguar M trials aboard Clemenceau‬‏ - YouTube[/nomedia]
 

kev 99

Member
It's not a guarantee of work a company expects it’s the likelihood to receive it; a successful car manufacturer is not sustained in business by guarantees of work but predictable sales volumes. There is more likely with a series production over a greater period of time. The current approach will lead to feast and famine.
Sorry but you're talking rubbish, manufacturers live off orders not promises.

Ordering in single numbers costs, you can't argue about this it's a fact and everyone knows it, ordering 1 ship at a time means all the parts for that ship are bought in smaller volumes which means they cost more and unit cost of the ship goes up as a result, this is a fact, as anyone that works in procurement or sales will tell you.
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Sorry but you're talking rubbish, manufacturers live off orders not promises.

Ordering in single numbers costs, you can't argue about this it's a fact and everyone knows it, ordering 1 ship at a time means all the parts for that ship are bought in smaller volumes which means they cost more and unit cost of the ship goes up as a result, this is a fact, as anyone that works in procurement or sales will tell you.
I'm not sure why anyone keeps arguing the point with 1805 - we've been over this territory so many times now my head hurts thinking about it.

I still think the original plan for the CVF, buy all the key components in one pass including the steel, get the blocks built remotely at multiple sites, bring 'em all together in a fairly rapid pipeline, was the smartest bit of thinking I've seen out of the MOD in a bit.

It means all the labour needed was on tap, and skilled up with the required capabilities and we got a better price on the components. That all went south when the government of the time shifted the build "to the right" adding a billion and half to the costs by bollocksing up that whole economy of scale and timing.

Add to that the rather belated switch to cat and trap, which was always due to happen, at some point in the life of the carriers, and we've watched costs rise by £3 billion plus for reasons entirely, utterly and totally out of the control of BAE, the RN or any of the people that 1805 persists in blaming.

Arguing with the bloke is pointless.

Ian
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Jaguar was more manuverable than the Phantom and had superior land based TO and landing performance, was lighter than the Phantom so therefore it is difficult to believe that the Jaguar M would have had inferior carrier launch or recovery performance. The Jaguar M was launched and recovered from Clemenceau, which I don't believe was able to operate anything as large and heavy as a Buccaneer, so I would suggest the Jag could have easily operated from the RNs existing carrier.
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Clemenceau had a full load displacement nearer 32K which was about 5K heavier than say, Hermes, so Clemenceau would definitely have been able to fly off and recover Buccs.

I can't see why you'd buy Jaguar M if you already had the Buccaneer however - it's a direct competitor and the Bucc was much better on range, speed on the deck and weapons load plus it had a decent attack radar and a two man crew. Buying Jag M instead of Phantom doesn't make any sense either - the Phantom was already fitted out with a working air interception radar with air to air missiles. None of this was even imagined for the Jaguar, nor was it ever delivered in the life of the aircraft.

Fixed wing catobar ops were killed as an act of political will by decree - not due to any technical issues. Ark flew Phantom tolerably well and Eagle was intended to be fitted out with an angle deck etc - this was all independent of the CVA cancellation.

There's no technical reason that the RN couldn't have carried on working with Ark and Eagle til well into the 1980's, flying F4's and S2's quite well.

If you're trying to cut out costs and make this all affordable, I'd just bin the idea of doing the Spey rework for the Phantom - buy them with the standard engine, right off the shelf and run them as is. We know they worked fine in service as the RAF pulled twenty off the USAF second hand and they were absolutely fine in service.

Ian
 

Lindermyer

New Member
Im sure that the spey was required to enable the phantom to operate off the Ark.
in which case not fitting the Spey to the Phantom is a non starter.
 

1805

New Member
Sorry but you're talking rubbish, manufacturers live off orders not promises.

Ordering in single numbers costs, you can't argue about this it's a fact and everyone knows it, ordering 1 ship at a time means all the parts for that ship are bought in smaller volumes which means they cost more and unit cost of the ship goes up as a result, this is a fact, as anyone that works in procurement or sales will tell you.
Well I do work in procurement, in bespoke manufacture it is not always the case, and it clearly is not the case with the CVF.
 

Seaforth

New Member
Im sure that the spey was required to enable the phantom to operate off the Ark.
in which case not fitting the Spey to the Phantom is a non starter.
That's probably right. The F4K needed an extended nose wheel as well. (Remember that Buccaneers and Scimitars used to take off with their nose wheel off the deck!)

The Jaguar-M's main wheels are quite close together compared to Super Etendard (and F4K, Buccs etc). That's not good for carrier ops - it was one of the problems with the SeaFire...
 

kev 99

Member
Well I do work in procurement, in bespoke manufacture it is not always the case, and it clearly is not the case with the CVF.
Really? Odd that you seem to think that buying in small volumes doesn't cost more then.

It doesn't matter if a Ship is bespoke, they are made from parts that are made on production lines, buying in small volumes makes these parts cost more, which makes the ship cost more, you can't really argue about this it's a fact.

But I'm done with this argument it's pointless as you seem to live in a fantasy world, and to quote another:

Arguing with the bloke is pointless.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Fixed wing catobar ops were killed as an act of political will by decree - not due to any technical issues. Ark flew Phantom tolerably well and Eagle was intended to be fitted out with an angle deck etc - this was all independent of the CVA cancellation.

Ian
Eagle had a full angle deck, Type 984 radar and a cat capable of launching Spey Phantoms (used for the Spey Phantom carrier qualification), as such was superior to Ark prior to her Phantom mod. She was also in better condition materially and would have required far less extensive mods to have allowed her to operate Phantoms as part of her air group.

I am not sure of F-4Js could have flown from Ark or Eagle but the USN did assure the RAN that they could be operated from a suitably modified Essex when they were investigating replacing HMAS Melbourne in the early to mid sixties.

It really is too bad the RN couldn't find a way to upgrade Eagle as well and extend either or both into the mid 80s as this would likely have detered Agentinas invasion of the Falklands. Had the smaller carriers been extended with a fixed wing airgroup it would likely have had a similar deterance, even if it didn't include Phantoms. Ironically, even had the entire 1960's fleet of five carriers been available with a hundred odd Seaharriers and Seaking AEW as well as Bulwark and Albion each lifting a RM Commando it would probably not had as great an effect on convincing Argentina it was a bad idea to invade as even a single CTOL carrier.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Really? Odd that you seem to think that buying in small volumes doesn't cost more then.

It doesn't matter if a Ship is bespoke, they are made from parts that are made on production lines, buying in small volumes makes these parts cost more, which makes the ship cost more, you can't really argue about this it's a fact.

But I'm done with this argument it's pointless as you seem to live in a fantasy world, and to quote another:
In shipbuilding you need to be building several hulls to a mature, fixed design before you start to see any savings. When you are talking about a clean sheet design there will be numerous changes during construction of the first ship just to get it built, as the first ship undergoes trials more changes will be identified, some will be incorporated into the second ship but others will have to wait until ship three or four. Add to this obsolescence of components and systems and you will see further changes and don’t forget operational experience and the resulting requirements that will also affect the design.

We are not talking a thousand cars a day off a production line or even a couple of hundred tanks over a period of years, we are talking a couple of ships built over nearly a decade or in some cases decades, it is more like construction of buildings, roads, ports etc than production, the more stuff you buy up front before you need it the more stuff you will have to scrap and replace due to changing circumstances / requirements, and the more time and money you waste.
 
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