Taliban Uprising - Is the state of Pakistan in peril?

[fixdeluxe1]

Introduction

This thread is devoted to current conflict in Pakistan in which an ever-growing part of the Pakistani territory seems to be infiltrated, disrupted or even controlled by a coalition of forces which seem to be united by a extremist view of Islam.

I think this might turn out to be one of the most decisive struggles in the first quarter of the 21th century. We should collect here articles, papers, documentaries in short all material which might be useful to analyse this conflict. We will then try to come up with an hopefully evolving synthesis concerning the strategy and the tactics of both the insurgents and the political and military leadership of Pakistan.

Only persons should contribute which have something useful to add. While this discussions has to touch sensitive matters I expect the posters to do so in an educated and composed fashion. I hope that the moderators here will delete posts which disturb the discussion and add nothing to the debate.


Thanks

Just to clarify the situation in pakistan,the military of pakistan is quite large and adequetly funded.The United States specifically trained/s officers of the pakistani army and supplies small arms to them.But so does the People's Republic of China and Russia.Let's see the other side of the conflict,the Taleban supported pakistani Islamic insurgency.They have an entire arms market in the tribal region.The esitmated number of Insurgents in Pakistan is roughly 20,000 well armed but poorly trained.These include suicide bombers,loads of conventional fighters and even is rumoured to have intelligence capibilities but in a limited fashion(although not as advanced as Sri Lanka's LTTE).The most direct threat is the political stability of pakistan and the safety of it's nuclear and biological weapons.The US invests millions in training and equipping Pakistani security forces specialized in defending Nuclear facilities.The pakistani army has a number of fighter-bombers and attack helicopters which come in useful against insurgents,but the insurgents are rumored to posses stolen and purchased US/Pak stinger missiles as well as Chinese built Man-portable SAM's.These are more effective against the helicopters than the other aircraft but also pose a significant threat to commercial and civilian air traffic passing of Pakistan,usually going to India.Pakistan Needs to deploy tanks and transport it's troops in APC'a alot more.Right now it's mainly an infantry slogging match where the militants have an upper hand.

 

[stoker]

Insurgents logistical network

The esitmated number of Insurgents in Pakistan is roughly 20,000 well armed but poorly trained.

What amazes me is how the insurgents/Taliban in both the FATA in Pakistan and in Afghanistan.
maintain their supply lines and the logistical supplies of munitions to their widely scattered fighting units.
Very basically the insurgents are heemed in on the border between the Pakistan Army and the US/NATO forces.
The US/NATO are spending mega $millions and employing a massive transport network to provide logistics for their Forces in the Ghan, and Pakistan would definitely be spwnding equivalents amounts of money, time and effort to supply their Forces in the barren and hostile FATA.

So the weak link for the Insurgents in both areas must be their logistal supply/transport network.

Would it not be practical for the Allies and Pakistan to concentrate their efforts in to stopping the
( bullets and beans ) suppy lines. This in theory should destroy the insurgents ability to fight.

Then both Pakistan in the FATA and the US/NATO in Afghanistan could revert to peace keepiing and direct their attention to building infrastructure and civilian government networks, hopefully dragging the local population out of the medieval dark ages they are living in now, by providing employment and education opportunities for all.

 

[mysterious]

Here's the crux of the matter:
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan's 'haunting' Taliban problem

While Pakistan is made the scape-goat for all of Afghanistan's ills by U.S, NATO, India, etc and immense pressure is made to bear down on the Pakistanis to militarily confront militants; now when that is happening, the forces across the border in Afghanistan are found wanting.

It is now Afghanistan that is the factor in all of Pakistan's troubles. Afghan-Taliban run shadowy parallel governments in more than half the country's provinces with U.S and allies helpless to do anything - something exponentiated by the corruption in Afghanistan's regime, from top governors to petty police officers.

Pakistan has done well to stamp out Taliban in Swat operation and the same is turning out to be the case in South Waziristan operation, but unless U.S & allies step it up, they should stop pointing fingers.

 

[surpreme]

Here it is 2011 and Pakistan still battling the Taliban as some have said on this post it going to be a long fight. Taliban Uprising Is the State of Pakistan in peril? Yes it is and it going to be tough to fight the Taliban because Pakistan is ill-equiped for the job. The effect of the Taliban insurgency will have a lasting affect on Pakistan as more attack inside Pakistan are being experience. There been alot Pakistan soldier who have died fighting the Taliban. It just going to get worst for Pakistan.
There is no easy way out of the fight with the Taliban. For one thing the area is very difficult to fight in. I just don't see a end in sight. The Taliban just going keep growing in the tribal area because they want to live there life in strict form of Islam. Pakistan is at the crossroad just as Saudi Arabia has some problem about American on there soil in 2000. Some element in Pakistan society do and don't want a friendship with the American. It's a nasty situation over there I just don't see it being resolved quickly.

 

[T.C.P]

Here it is 2011 and Pakistan still battling the Taliban as some have said on this post it going to be a long fight. Taliban Uprising Is the State of Pakistan in peril? Yes it is and it going to be tough to fight the Taliban because Pakistan is ill-equiped for the job. The effect of the Taliban insurgency will have a lasting affect on Pakistan as more attack inside Pakistan are being experience. There been alot Pakistan soldier who have died fighting the Taliban. It just going to get worst for Pakistan.
There is no easy way out of the fight with the Taliban. For one thing the area is very difficult to fight in. I just don't see a end in sight. The Taliban just going keep growing in the tribal area because they want to live there life in strict form of Islam. Pakistan is at the crossroad just as Saudi Arabia has some problem about American on there soil in 2000. Some element in Pakistan society do and don't want a friendship with the American. It's a nasty situation over there I just don't see it being resolved quickly.

What makes you think that the Pakistani military is incapable of fighting their homegrown terrorists? The Pakistani military is not incompetent or weak, they can unleash hell against any enemy on their territory, but due the fact the Taliban receive support from the military hierarchy in Pakistan, they still survive.

The Taliban will continue to grow until the US forces leave Pakistan and Pakistan stop helping the Americans in the MID-EAST, the Tribal TAlibs are allowed to live their strict Islamic life, but they can't stand the Americans in Pakistan, they consider them to be occupying forces and themselves to be holy freedom fighters defending their soil.

 

[Palnatoke]

In the long run, it's not really a question of traditional millitary might.
We must assume that a relatively strong millitary power like Pakistan can beat down a millitia - in open battle, that is.

But these insurgencies work in other ways and have other aims than the traditional millitary one. To properly combat them you only need traditional millitary as a shield to the real counter-insurgency effort, which is (or should be) a policing effort.

To "win", you need to win the population. The forces of order, does this by providing not only "security" but also a "sense of security". You can only do this by removing and isolating the insurgency from the population and you do that by detecting and disclose the members of the insurgency from the poster boy, the fund raiser, the soldier to the leaders. That is a policing effort - much like how you deal with organised crime - a traditional army is not suited for this and the traditional soldiers are useless to this task.
On the other hand the traditional police is also not suited for the task, they will be overwhelmed by the millitary force of the millitant insurgency. What we need is a cross-bread between millitary and police, a force that inherrits the firm, sturdy, organisation of the millitary and from the police inherrits the complex properties that defines a good police force.

And in this lies the real bad news for Pakistan: To have an effective policeforce is so much more difficult than to breed and build a battleworthy army. An effective policeforce need not only be skilled, well equiped and well organised. It needs to be trustworthy, uncorruptible, at level with the population etc.

The enemy, the insurgency, has a simple game plan: By spreading insecurity (by acts of terror and violence) and attacking the body of the state (police, administration, infrastructure,schools ect) they undermine the legitimacy of the state in the eyes of the population; because what basic legetimacy does a state have when it cannot provide basic services, let alone security?

 

[STURM]

In the long run, it's not really a question of traditional millitary might.

To "win", you need to win the population.

The situation in Pakistan is indeed bad but there is no chance of the Taliban or other extremists groups taking over the country. Though the are 'jihadist' elements in the military - a legacy of Pakistan's use of extremist groups as part of its foreign policy and its long involvement in Afghanistan - the last thing they want is for the country to fall into the hands of the extremists. The majority of Pakistanis, though they may not be pro-American, in light of recent events, also do not wish to see such a scenario taking place.

The main problem for Pakistan at the moment is pursuing its national interests, which may be at odds to what the Americans want them to do. Certain policies, as we know, are good for American interests but are counter productive for Pakistan. Despite the threat posed by extremists and the situation in Afghanistan [which many tend to forget is also related to India and Kashmir], the main security threat as perceived by the Pakistanis remains India.

 

[Palnatoke]

The situation in Pakistan is indeed bad but there is no chance of the Taliban or other extremists groups taking over the country.

Agreed, but they can weaken the state and by that claim some sort of autonomi. The last thing many of us want is the emergence of an informal pashtun state spanning parts of pakistan and afghanistan.

Though the are 'jihadist' elements in the military - a legacy of Pakistan's use of extremist groups as part of its foreign policy and its long involvement in Afghanistan - the last thing they want is for the country to fall into the hands of the extremists. The majority of Pakistanis, though they may not be pro-American, in light of recent events, also do not wish to see such a scenario taking place.

agreed

The main problem for Pakistan at the moment is pursuing its national interests, which may be at odds to what the Americans want them to do. Certain policies, as we know, are good for American interests but are counter productive for Pakistan. Despite the threat posed by extremists and the situation in Afghanistan [which many tend to forget is also related to India and Kashmir], the main security threat as perceived by the Pakistanis remains India.

Yeah. It's a complex situation. The conflict with India probably explains the apparent and difficult-to-understand pakistani politic towards the conflict in Afgh. that to me seems to be some sort of a double play in which pakistan uses the millitants (that Nato fights) to signal/ or make it clear that pakistan has a decisive say in any peacefull arrangement in Afgh. and that such an arrangement has to be on pakistani terms (and absolutely not with india in any role or shape).
Though I think that Pakistan are playing with fire and fear that it underestimate the ability of subversive organisations and groups to permantly weaken the central state.

 

[STURM]

Agreed, but they can weaken the state and by that claim some sort of autonomi. The last thing many of us want is the emergence of an informal pashtun state spanning parts of pakistan and afghanistan.

Well this goes back to the artificial border created by the Brits prior to 1947 which divided the Pashtun popoulation into 2 countries. One of the reasons but not the main one that has led to Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan was to keep the Pashtuns from having any thoughts of autonomy.

 

[surpreme]

Well this goes back to the artificial border created by the Brits prior to 1947 which divided the Pashtun popoulation into 2 countries. One of the reasons but not the main one that has led to Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan was to keep the Pashtuns from having any thoughts of autonomy.

My conclusion is its a big mess in Pakistan. I forgot about that the British did divide up that area.

 

[surpreme]

The situation in Pakistan is indeed bad but there is no chance of the Taliban or other extremists groups taking over the country. Though the are 'jihadist' elements in the military - a legacy of Pakistan's use of extremist groups as part of its foreign policy and its long involvement in Afghanistan - the last thing they want is for the country to fall into the hands of the extremists. The majority of Pakistanis, though they may not be pro-American, in light of recent events, also do not wish to see such a scenario taking place.

The main problem for Pakistan at the moment is pursuing its national interests, which may be at odds to what the Americans want them to do. Certain policies, as we know, are good for American interests but are counter productive for Pakistan. Despite the threat posed by extremists and the situation in Afghanistan [which many tend to forget is also related to India and Kashmir], the main security threat as perceived by the Pakistanis remains India.

There is possiblity of a coup that can take over Pakistan. And it could be a Pakistan General who is a jihadist or has a friendship with the Taliban. It happen before so what make you think it can't happen again. All it take is right planning having members in the right place to stop counter coup. Maybe he come in as a savior of Pakistan.

 

[STURM]

There is possiblity of a coup that can take over Pakistan. And it could be a Pakistan General who is a jihadist or has a friendship with the Taliban. It happen before so make you think it can't happen again. All it take is right planning having members in the right place to stop counter coup. Maybe he come in as a savior of Pakistan.

Coups have certainly happened before when the military perceived that the state was under threat due to flawed policies or a 'weak' political leadership or that the position of the military was in danger of being undermined, but this time the stakes are much higher and no matter what sympathies certain generals may gave for the extremists, none would actually want Pakistan to fall into the hands of the extremists. A coup may take place but it will be directed at replacing the political leadership and not forming an extremist or pro-Taliban government. By the same token, efforts by anyone to create 'autonomy' in the tribal regions would be resisted by Pakistan as it would also lead to the Baluchis seeking the same for Baluchistan, where there is also a large number of Pashtuns.

Pakistan's long term aims still are ensuring a nuclear deterrence against India, ensuring a 'friendly' government in Kabul and preventing Indian influence there from expending and Kashmir [apart from security reasons, economics also played a part in Pakistan's early support of the Taliban - it was hoped that Afghanistan could be part of a lucrative land route for goods, originating from Pakistan, to Central Asia]. And of course ensuring that Pakistan's strategic position is not weakened if U.S. diplomatic, financial and military support dwindles following a pull out from Afghanistan.

I forgot about that the British did divide up that area.

Unfortunately a lot of the mess certain countries are in is because of artificial borders drawn up by imperialists powers to meet their self-interests, whether in Africa, the Balkans, Central Asia or the Middle East. Traditionally, Afghanistan has a long standing claims on parts of the border with Pakistan but has never pushed for it.

 

[surpreme]

Coups have certainly happened before when the military perceived that the state was under threat due to flawed policies or a 'weak' political leadership or that the position of the military was in danger of being undermined, but this time the stakes are much higher and no matter what sympathies certain generals may gave for the extremists, none would actually want Pakistan to fall into the hands of the extremists. A coup may take place but it will be directed at replacing the political leadership and not forming an extremist or pro-Taliban government. By the same token, efforts by anyone to create 'autonomy' in the tribal regions would be resisted by Pakistan as it would also lead to the Baluchis seeking the same for Baluchistan, where there is also a large number of Pashtuns.

Pakistan's long term aims still are ensuring a nuclear deterrence against India, ensuring a 'friendly' government in Kabul and preventing Indian influence there from expending and Kashmir [apart from security reasons, economics also played a part in Pakistan's early support of the Taliban - it was hoped that Afghanistan could be part of a lucrative land route for goods, originating from Pakistan, to Central Asia]. And of course ensuring that Pakistan's strategic position is not weakened if U.S. diplomatic, financial and military support dwindles following a pull out from Afghanistan.



Unfortunately a lot of the mess certain countries are in is because of artificial borders drawn up by imperialists powers to meet their self-interests, whether in Africa, the Balkans, Central Asia or the Middle East. Traditionally, Afghanistan has a long standing claims on parts of the border with Pakistan but has never pushed for it.

You don't know what be happening behind close door if a coup happen. A treaty with the Taliban or a real defense pact with China could happen after the coup. Pakistan is not stable right now things like can happen this US worst nightmare a change in Pakistan direction. It still something you have to watch for in Pakistan. After recieving the F-16D's and spare parts it look like Pakistan has to stay with a healthly relationship with US. But it also is co-producting a JF-17 fighter so it could take a risk and change directions against the Taliban after a coup that overthrow the current Government.

 

[MaximumG]

PA beat Taliban black and blue in Swat. I dont know if its capability that is the question.
They really need to mine and fence the border, I dont know why Afghna govt is objecting to the idea. The taliban flow both ways, how many personnel are watching the border on Afghan side..how many checkposts?

At the same time, while USA is asking Pakistan to pursue Taliban and Mullah Omar, they are on the other side talking with Omar's aides for political solution. So its really quite complex.

 

[surpreme]

What is going on with the Pakistan border with Afghanistan the media makes it seem that Pakistan is not doing enough? So the lives of Pakistan Frontier Force not enough.

 

[STURM]

What is going on with the Pakistan border with Afghanistan the media makes it seem that Pakistan is not doing enough? So the lives of Pakistan Frontier Force not enough.

Pakistan is involved in a very fine balancing act. On one hand is being pressured by the U.S. to act and take action in certain areas. On the other hand, some of the areas where the U.S. would like Pakistan to be more 'assertive' or 'efficient' can be counterproductive to Pakistan's long term interests. Whilst many in the U.S. government and military feel that Pakistan is not doing enough, the main worry of the Pakistan leadership is what will happen after the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan. The Pakistan leadership percieves the U.S. as viewing things from a solely U.S. centric perspective or lens - in that the main goal is dealing with the Taliban and other extremist groups - whilst Pakistani also has other areas to worry about.

 

[surpreme]

Pakistan is involved in a very fine balancing act. On one hand is being pressured by the U.S. to act and take action in certain areas. On the other hand, some of the areas where the U.S. would like Pakistan to be more 'assertive' or 'efficient' can be counterproductive to Pakistan's long term interests. Whilst many in the U.S. government and military feel that Pakistan is not doing enough, the main worry of the Pakistan leadership is what will happen after the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan. The Pakistan leadership percieves the U.S. as viewing things from a solely U.S. centric perspective or lens - in that the main goal is dealing with the Taliban and other extremist groups - whilst Pakistani also has other areas to worry about.

Do Pakistan have an effective counter-terrorism unit in the Armed Forces or the Police Force ? Having heard or read anything about the unit.

 

[T.C.P]

Do Pakistan have an effective counter-terrorism unit in the Armed Forces or the Police Force ? Having heard or read anything about the unit.

Do some basic google research, Pakistan army has SSG who are pretty damn good at fighting terrorism.

 

[STURM]

Do Pakistan have an effective counter-terrorism unit in the Armed Forces or the Police Force ? Having heard or read anything about the unit.

A lot of operations against extremists in the tribal areas have been conducted by para-military units, these are the guys seen in black and on pickups in the news. I would presume that the Pakistan police or border guards might have their own counter terrorism unit.

 

[T.C.P]

A lot of operations against extremists in the tribal areas have been conducted by para-military units, these are the guys seen imn black and on pickups in the news. I would presume that the Pakistan police or border guards might have their own counter terrorism unit.

They probably do, Pakistan's law enforcement and army are too huge to have the SSG as the only land based special counter terrorism unit.