No-fly zone over Libya

[swerve]

Hi,

A no fly zone requires radar coverage, and planes to intercept, with tankers for obvious refuel needs (Libya is quite a big country). I can't see too many options there.
It's impossible to use ground based radars in Libya so Awacs will be required, and to my understanding, carriers are the only solution. ...

Maybe Italy can send planes, with refuelling above the Mediterranean sea, from carriers taking off from Malta, Spain, Gibraltar, or Italy. Cyprus is really far, too far ?
regards

Gibraltar & Spain are much too far away. Malta is unlikely to provide facilities, for its own political reasons.

Carriers would be useful, but not essential. There are air bases in Sicily & Crete which are close enough, & have all the necessary facilities. They're mainly US-operated, though owned by the host countries. There are also civilian airports nearby with spare capacity.

in proportion? he only has 150 is combat planes and most are thought to be grounded due to lack of spare parts, and on top of that several have fallen into rebel hands,

The sortie rate seems to be fluctuating from single figures per day to days per strike. A STOVL carrier with a dozen Harriers would do a lot better than that.

 

[Beatmaster]

If iam not mistaken, the Libyan opposition has asked for a no-fly zone above Libya as this was on the news.
They said keep Khadafi's planes out of the air and we will finish him on the ground, this request is officially pending as there seem to be more evidence that Khadafi is bombing his people using the airforce.
So it really does not matter what Libya's neighbors want or not want if the level of violence keeps increasing against the civilians then NATO will disrupt Khadafi's communications and will enforce a no fly-zone to prevent the bombing of civilians as has been said on the news.

After days of unrest in Libya, U.S. officials say a no-fly zone is an option for pushing Moammar Gadhafi from power and preventing bloodshed in toppling the regime.

But the use of no-fly zones is rife with danger for both sides, foreign experts say, and instituting one in Libya would raise the geopolitical stakes.

A no-fly zone is the aerial equivalent of a line in the sand. Violators, whether they are civilian aircraft or fighter jets, can get shot at.
A member of the U.N. Security Council who spoke on background told CNN that while there has been no formal discussion of a no-fly zone, there have been informal discussions outside of meetings, and "informal planning" is going on at NATO for such a scenario.

The diplomat said that if the Security Council discovers evidence that Gadhafi is using his air forces to kill or bomb civilians, fly in mercenaries or impede humanitarian assistance, it would be prepared to consider a no-fly zone.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned Congress on Wednesday that any effort to create a no-fly zone in Libya would have to begin with an attack on the country.

"If ordered, we can do it," Gates said in answer to a question during a House Appropriations Committee hearing on the Pentagon's 2012 budget. But he warned that imposing such a zone would have to begin with an attack on Libya's anti-aircraft capability.

While testifying on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said they had no confirmation of reports of aircraft controlled by Gadhafi firing on citizens, which has been an argument for enforcing a no-fly zone over the country.

But CNN's Ben Wedeman reported Wednesday that he had seen an aircraft drop bombs on civilians near the coastal city of Brega.

In a rare bit of bipartisanship in Washington, the Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed a nonbinding resolution calling for the Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over the country.

Sen. John Kerry, D-Massachusetts, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday that the international community "cannot be on the sidelines while airplanes are being allowed to bomb and strafe.

"A no-fly zone is not a long-term proposition, assuming the outcome is what all desire, and I believe that we ought to be ready to implement it as necessary."
Source: Cnn news

So regardless if a no fly zone will have the right effect or not, if Khadafi's forces are going to murder people to regain control then i believe actions should be taken either by capturing Khadafi or by shutting down his military as i can simply not believe that anno 2011 aggression on this scale is being allowed or accepted.
The Liberian people want to change they have spoken and started a revolution, we all know that revolutions are not without violence, but there is a difference between violence and violence, IMO NATO and the US as any nation has the right to help the people and support the revolution if asked by the opposition and only if Khadafi is using brute force IE killing on a mass scale and using the military in its full force to suppress the people.
Normally we should stay out of internal problems as they are not our business, however in case of brute force against civvies then imo the west has to act.

 

[Ananda]

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned Congress on Wednesday that any effort to create a no-fly zone in Libya would have to begin with an attack on the country.

"If ordered, we can do it," Gates said in answer to a question during a House Appropriations Committee hearing on the Pentagon's 2012 budget. But he warned that imposing such a zone would have to begin with an attack on Libya's anti-aircraft capability.

Yea, especially with most of working anti-air assets in Libya still under Khadafi's control. Especially if info on Khadafi's modifying his anti-air assets with Russian help in the 2009 and 2010 already come to fruition.

Normally we should stay out of internal problems as they are not our business, however in case of brute force against civvies then imo the west has to act.

Related to no-fly zone..will the US and the West still have 'drive' to get into another mess in the middle east ??

 

[Feanor]

Yea, especially with most of working anti-air assets in Libya still under Khadafi's control. Especially if info on Khadafi's modifying his anti-air assets with Russian help in the 2009 and 2010 already come to fruition.

They have not come to fruition. Contracts for Su-35S, S-300PMU and Pantsyr-1 were about to be signed. Only a Yak-130 contract was signed, and I'm fairly certain deliveries hadn't started.

 

[sgtgunn]

Does anyone have any recent information on the current #, type & status of combat aircraft the Libyans have?

Adrian

 

[mattyem]

Does anyone have any recent information on the current #, type & status of combat aircraft the Libyans have?

Adrian

Libyan Air Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

from wikipedia

"By 2010 the Libyan Air Force had at least 25 MiG-21 and 125 MiG-23 fighter jets, a number of Su-22 and Su-24 attack aircraft, combat helicopters and military transport planes."

from global security http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/af.htm

 

[STURM]

BTW just what makes members here think that third world countries can't have proper air forces with flyable air craft. We are a third world country and all our air craft are flyable and in perfectly good shape!!

A major problem faced by many Third World countries and even some non - Third World countries is that they may lack the operating funds to mantain the servicibility rates of their aircraft and for their pilots to clock the neccesary hours in the air. Compared to other countries, Third World countries in general do not often use live ordnance in exercises as this is very costly. It all boils down to the size of one's operating budget.

For those interested, 'Arabs At War' has a very detailed account of the Libyan Air Force's performance in Chad. AFM in recent months has also produced some features on the Libyan Air Force.

 

[swerve]

Yea, especially with most of working anti-air assets in Libya still under Khadafi's control. Especially if info on Khadafi's modifying his anti-air assets with Russian help in the 2009 and 2010 already come to fruition.

"[M]ost of working anti-air assets" doesn't amount to much. Gadhafi has no SAM coverage over the east & most of the interior, for example. There are SAMs from near the Tunisian border to about Sirte - but that means that LARAF aircraft trying to bomb rebels would be out of range of their GBAD.

Some MiGs are grounded in the east, & therefore not available to Gadhafi. Two bases in the west are reported to have been fought over, & any aircraft on the ground there are probably lost. A few aircraft have been lost.

What Gadhafi has is the working portion of the aircraft on the bases he's kept continuous control of in the west of Libya, & the working portion of the radar & SAM network in the west. That's probably quite a small number of aircraft, all old, & an antique GBAD with some non-functioning portions.

 

[kato]

There are SAMs from near the Tunisian border to about Sirte - but that means that LARAF aircraft trying to bomb rebels would be out of range of their GBAD.

The S-200VE site at Sirte ranges to only 20 km short of Bengazhi in theory (which is where the next site was located).

 

[jtm]

Libyan Air Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

from wikipedia

"By 2010 the Libyan Air Force had at least 25 MiG-21 and 125 MiG-23 fighter jets, a number of Su-22 and Su-24 attack aircraft, combat helicopters and military transport planes."

from global security Air Force

They also had around 40 Mirage F1 (Dassault), but most of them are out of service, because of the lack of spare parts. Since 2007, French contractors helped the Libyan AF repair some of them, at least 5, and re-trained the pilots. 2 of these Mirage F1 defected to Malta 2 weeks ago after the pilots refused to bomb civils, so at least 3 may remain in Libya, in order of flight.

Sources : Several French press articles from 2007 to today, and personnal knowledge.

 

[Feanor]

I don't think they have more thentwo squadrons of Fencers. The bulk of their fleet should be MiG-23, and Su-22M, with handfuls of MiG-21 and Su-24.

 

[kato]

The bulk of their fleet should be trainer aircraft (L-39ZO, G-2AE, SF.260WL) actually

Other than that i'd guess we can discount anything except Mig-23 and Su-22 really.

 

[lucinator]

Most are grounded? Hmm. I mean it is a third world country, but I'd imagine he'd have most of his aircraft flyable...

that's what globalsecurity says anyway

 

[sgtgunn]

Could Defense Cuts Hobble Europe's Response to Libya? - Yahoo! News

This article has some pretty damning statements regarding the ability of European Nations to project military power in any meaningful way.

Here's a couple quotes:

"But despite these reforms, European armies still lack the means to operate in difficult theaters. Clara Marina O'Donnell, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says European defense capabilities have actually been diminished since they took part in NATO's 1995 bombing campaign in Bosnia. "Europeans would be not be prepared for any intervention in Libya now. They cannot deliver on action. In fact, Europe could [probably] not do Bosnia again," she says."

"And besides, says Daniel Keohane, defense expert at the Paris-based European Union Institute for Security Studies, any military intervention in Libya would have to depend on the U.S. "At the moment, Europe can barely deploy 100,000 troops, while the U.S. Marine Corps can deploy 200,000. Europe doesn't have anything approaching the structure and experiences to develop a military operation on its own," he says."

Is Europe really reached this point? Libya is hardly 1/2 way around the world - it's practically in Europe's back-yard (or at least just across the street). Have European defense capabilities reached such a low point that they can project power to someplace as close as Libya?

Or does the article get it wrong?

Adrian

 

[Feanor]

I think they can project the power. I think it's a question of how much they can project, and for how long they're willing to do it for. While the purely military implications are wrong in my opinion, the political ones certainly aren't.

 

[riksavage]

I think they can project the power. I think it's a question of how much they can project, and for how long they're willing to do it for. While the purely military implications are wrong in my opinion, the political ones certainly aren't.

The Libyan's don't want overt western intervention, the rebel leaders believe it will play into the hands of Gadaffi. Even if a no-fly zone results in total success and Gaddaffi is forced to do a runner to Zim, the new government doesn't want to deal with tribal unrest fueled by the belief that the new Government is under the control of former western colonizers.

The last think Europe wants is to get drawn into a prolonged no-fly zone scenario, which drags on for years (Iraq scenario). Europe certainly has the airframe numbers and air bases, but the cost would be astronomical compared to supplying the rebels covertly on the ground with advisers and better weapons (man-pads, shoulder launched AT and comms kit).

The US is rumored to be looking at supplying weapons via Saudi. Using a friendly Arab nation as a front for future support has to be the way forward to avoid a Muslim backlash against the infidels only interested in securing oil rights.

Any no fly zone means destruction of anti-air ground assets, imagine one stray bomb, which misses the targetted ZSU and hits a school, suddenly you go from savour to oppressor in one fell swoop.

Regardless we can't allow Gaddafi to succeed, he will want revenge and go back to his old ways of supporting terrorist groups (RAF, INLA, PLO etc.). These will not necessarily be Muslim extremists but good old fashioned players like the Irish Republican movement, Basque separatism or even a new era of left wing groups fed up with government austerity measures. Basically anyone prepared to have a go at who he perceived to be his main external agitators.

 

[Ananda]

Regardless we can't allow Gaddafi to succeed, he will want revenge and go back to his old ways of supporting terrorist groups (RAF, INLA, PLO etc.). These will not necessarily be Muslim extremists but good old fashioned players like the Irish Republicanism movement, Basque separatism or even a new era of left wing groups fed up with government austerity measures. Basically anyone prepared to have a go at who he perceived to be his main external agitators.

Perhaps what the West mus looking now is some way to save 'face' Khadafi's himself and his factions ( and come to term of the 'ugly' diplomatic negotiations). Without that I believe it will be a long instability in Libya which for Europe it will be more concern than Afghanistan or Iraq concerning Libya's just accross mediterania 'pond' from Europe's 'soft underbelly' (if I can borrow Churchil terms on Southern Europe).

Getting rid of Khadafi's anti-air assets would not be a problem much, since it's not a huge assets to begin with compared to what Saddam used to have. But it's means direct attack to Libyan soil, in which ussually it will drag down to 'land intervention'. Again, will the West has enough 'drive' to get in to another Middle East mess ??

 

[kato]

Europe already is projecting power down there. There's over a dozen warships in the area, and enough transport aircraft deployed to Malta to drop a whole brigade of troops on Tripolis (or Bengazhi) if necessary. And then there's the buildup in Souda.

The current flotilla stationed in Malta and Catania includes (from EU nations):

• Francesco Mimbelli (IT), AAW DDG
• Tromp (NL), AAW DDG
• Tourville (FR), ASW DDG
• Westminster (UK), FFG
• Cumberland (UK), FFG
• Brandenburg (GE), FFG
• Rheinland-Pfalz (GE), FFG
• Fenice (IT), FFL
• Comandante Bettica (IT), OPV
• Mistral (FR), LHD
• San Giorgio (IT), LPD
• San Marco (IT), LPD
• Berlin (GE), AOR

(based out of Malta and Catania; Italian ships only those assigned to the mission)

Note 1: Georges Leygues was escorting Mistral to Tunisia, but is replaced in that role by Tourville and returns to Toulon

Note 2: Mistral is noted by Meretmarine as currently carrying a reinforced marine infantry company (205 men from 9th BLBIMa) with 20 VAB, 3 AMX-10RC, 4 120mm mortars and an engineer platoon. To support these, Mistral has two Gazelle and two Puma helos from Army Aviation embarked.

Note 3: Fenice and Comandante Bettica are primarily guarding the two defected Libyan ships south of Malta.

The Charles de Gaulle carrier group is on immediate readiness for deployment by the way, and is intended to arrive in Tunisian/Maltese waters in a timeframe of 60 to 100 hours if the command is given. This (with Tourville already detached) could include:

• Charles de Gaulle (FR), CV
• Forbin (FR), AAW DDG
• Amethyste (FR), SSN
• Meuse (FR), AOR

If anyone wonders where the other big ships are: Simple, they're in Valletta - with NATO NRF exercise Noble Mariner 11. Some of the above ships were originally planned to take part in this exercise, which will go on until March 10th. The actually participating ships are in the following units.

NATO SNMCMG1 was planned to move into the area this week (from Valletta), with a port visit in Tunisia originally planned on March 15th (don't know if this is still going). SNMCMG1 currently consists of:

• Kontradmiral X Czernicki (PL), multi-role tender/LST
• Datteln (GE), MCMV
• Haarlem (NL), MCMV
• Brocklesby (UK), MCMV
• Narcis (BE), MCMV

SNMG1 is planned to move into the central mediterranean too (for Active Endeavour) with its next port in Sicily, and currently consists of:

• Lübeck (GE), ASW FFG
• Oker (GE), ELINT vessel (!)
• Etna (IT), AOR

And finally Spain's Maritime High Readiness Force, probably not that likely to go the same way (possibly going on similar status to CdG?):

• Principe de Asturias (ES), CVL
• Alvaro de Bazan (ES), AAW DDG
• Victoria (ES), FFG
• Navarra (ES), FFG
• Castilla (ES), LPD (note: attached as Noble Mariner command ship)
• Marques de la Ensenada (ES), AO

There's btw also a number of SSKs involved in the area already - and e.g. in Noble Mariner 11 alone four SSKs ready to go into it - that aren't listed here.

Project Power?

 

[lucinator]

I dont know where you got your information from but today on CNN they has one of the rebel generals asking for a noflyzone so im not sure your argument is valid.

The Libyan's don't want overt western intervention, the rebel leaders believe it will play into the hands of Gadaffi. Even if a no-fly zone results in total success and Gaddaffi is forced to do a runner to Zim, the new government doesn't want to deal with tribal unrest fueled by the belief that the new Government is under the control of former western colonizers.

The last think Europe wants is to get drawn into a prolonged no-fly zone scenario, which drags on for years (Iraq scenario). Europe certainly has the airframe numbers and air bases, but the cost would be astronomical compared to supplying the rebels covertly on the ground with advisers and better weapons (man-pads, shoulder launched AT and comms kit).

The US is rumored to be looking at supplying weapons via Saudi. Using a friendly Arab nation as a front for future support has to be the way forward to avoid a Muslim backlash against the infidels only interested in securing oil rights.

Any no fly zone means destruction of anti-air ground assets, imagine one stray bomb, which misses the targetted ZSU and hits a school, suddenly you go from savour to oppressor in one fell swoop.

Regardless we can't allow Gaddafi to succeed, he will want revenge and go back to his old ways of supporting terrorist groups (RAF, INLA, PLO etc.). These will not necessarily be Muslim extremists but good old fashioned players like the Irish Republican movement, Basque separatism or even a new era of left wing groups fed up with government austerity measures. Basically anyone prepared to have a go at who he perceived to be his main external agitators.

 

[lucinator]

also the CVN Enterprise has been moved into the area.

Europe already is projecting power down there. There's over a dozen warships in the area, and enough transport aircraft deployed to Malta to drop a whole brigade of troops on Tripolis (or Bengazhi) if necessary. And then there's the buildup in Souda.

The current flotilla stationed in Malta and Catania includes (from EU nations):

• Francesco Mimbelli (IT), AAW DDG
• Tromp (NL), AAW DDG
• Tourville (FR), ASW DDG
• Westminster (UK), FFG
• Cumberland (UK), FFG
• Brandenburg (GE), FFG
• Rheinland-Pfalz (GE), FFG
• Fenice (IT), FFL
• Comandante Bettica (IT), OPV
• Mistral (FR), LHD
• San Giorgio (IT), LPD
• San Marco (IT), LPD
• Berlin (GE), AOR

(based out of Malta and Catania; Italian ships only those assigned to the mission)

Note 1: Georges Leygues was escorting Mistral to Tunisia, but is replaced in that role by Tourville and returns to Toulon

Note 2: Mistral is noted by Meretmarine as currently carrying a reinforced marine infantry company (205 men from 9th BLBIMa) with 20 VAB, 3 AMX-10RC, 4 120mm mortars and an engineer platoon. To support these, Mistral has two Gazelle and two Puma helos from Army Aviation embarked.

Note 3: Fenice and Comandante Bettica are primarily guarding the two defected Libyan ships south of Malta.

The Charles de Gaulle carrier group is on immediate readiness for deployment by the way, and is intended to arrive in Tunisian/Maltese waters in a timeframe of 60 to 100 hours if the command is given. This (with Tourville already detached) could include:

• Charles de Gaulle (FR), CV
• Forbin (FR), AAW DDG
• Amethyste (FR), SSN
• Meuse (FR), AOR

If anyone wonders where the other big ships are: Simple, they're in Valletta - with NATO NRF exercise Noble Mariner 11. Some of the above ships were originally planned to take part in this exercise, which will go on until March 10th. The actually participating ships are in the following units.

NATO SNMCMG1 was planned to move into the area this week (from Valletta), with a port visit in Tunisia originally planned on March 15th (don't know if this is still going). SNMCMG1 currently consists of:

• Kontradmiral X Czernicki (PL), multi-role tender/LST
• Datteln (GE), MCMV
• Haarlem (NL), MCMV
• Brocklesby (UK), MCMV
• Narcis (BE), MCMV

SNMG1 is planned to move into the central mediterranean too (for Active Endeavour) with its next port in Sicily, and currently consists of:

• Lübeck (GE), ASW FFG
• Oker (GE), ELINT vessel (!)
• Etna (IT), AOR

And finally Spain's Maritime High Readiness Force, probably not that likely to go the same way (possibly going on similar status to CdG?):

• Principe de Asturias (ES), CVL
• Alvaro de Bazan (ES), AAW DDG
• Victoria (ES), FFG
• Navarra (ES), FFG
• Castilla (ES), LPD (note: attached as Noble Mariner command ship)
• Marques de la Ensenada (ES), AO

There's btw also a number of SSKs involved in the area already - and e.g. in Noble Mariner 11 alone four SSKs ready to go into it - that aren't listed here.

Project Power?