Sorry for being a bit of out touch with current news in the NZ armed forces but has the RNZAF issued a requirement for a medium sized transport like the CN-235, C-27, etc,?
Gov is looking for short ranged MPA's and publically suggested last year they are interested in Q300's (cheap option, as Gov could buy/lease existing a/c operated by Air NZ subsideries) or CN-235. From WhitePaper/supprt docs, it appears the budget is $200M (currently US$154M) and that the timeline for this is 2011 onwards.
I'm not certain that Gov has actually asked for transport taskings specifically (they've not released their requirements yet) but people here are pointing out that aircraft like the CN-235/295 will also allow pax/cargo transport taskings (Q300 pax only) giving flexibility, especially if the modular fit-out approach is taken.
Personally I like the modular CN-235/295 approach mentioned by many of the commentators here so far, it just makes the most sense for the NZDF's needs. Hopefully the larger CN-295 gets the nod, has the modular system pallet (MSP) (that Todjaeger went to alot of trouble of researching for us via his link and seems completely do-able for the NZGov) and hard points are fitted for and not with (I have the impression Govt doesn't need to see them armed for NZ and South Pacific EEZ duties .... but history has shown they would be useful for NZ/SP if the climate were to change ... or if they are tasked to operated out of Aus Northern Territory or SE Asia which could be possible).
As for C-130J's v A-400M's and your earlier question .... actually that is a good question worth thinking about.
I do agree that NZDF needs something larger like A-400M or better, to move its heavier equipment (and more items) more efficiently across long distances, that's Australia (to their staging areas) and/or beyond into SE Asia. Not sure how much they would be used to the SP though (in terms of being fully laden). Antarctica, they would be useful for the summer operations there fully laden but that would probably be no more than a few flights per year. I also agree that such an aircraft will operate for a very long time so NZ Gov should get it right. I'm for greater airlift.
But personally, there could be other options out there, and until the Gov clarifies its thinking viz-a-vie working much closer with Australia (this Joint-ANZAC Force suggestion etc), I'm keeping an open mind.
For example, I would think it would be prudent that NZG and AusG look to see whether they can work closer and realise synergies in areas such as heavy lift (it appears they are from the odd bit of info etc).
Because one issue I can see is that if NZ directly replaced its C-130H's with A-400M's (or better), because of purchasing and operating costs we're only looking at perhaps a 2-3 aircraft (4 max would be a stretch). That only leaves 1 possibly 2 available for a deployment, which can be risky in terms of unavailability. It could be do-able, but at the same time NZDF and its counterparts overseas would want some certainty NZ would actually "turn-up" to an event (even with 5 Hercs NZ sometimes doesn't "turn up" or has to call upon the RAAF to come in and help). The other problem is alot of the time during normal day-to-day support taskings these A-400M's (or better) would not fly fully laden and the bean counters would be noting the inefficiencies and costs (that's why they have targeted the 757's for the same reasons, alas).
An option worth exploring IMO, is to indeed replace the C-130H's with C-130J's. The positives here are the (assumed) lower operating costs (bean counters have already noted the J is cheaper to operate the H model, let alone a new class of aircraft eg A-400M), plus the commonality factor with ADF, USAF etc, in terms of spares, maintenance in theatre, training and std logistics and operating procedures etc (i.e. NZ could easily support an ADF operation in theatre and vice-versa if an incident rendered the support groundcrew inoperative eg motar attack or whatever etc). The J would be NZ's preferred a/c to support activities in the Pacific (eg aid/civil defence, re-supplying Solomon ops), maybe Antarctica at times, exercises within NZ with the other services and paratroop training and so on etc.
NZ's then buy's into the ADF heavy lift programme eg purchase outright a C17 or two (can't really be an A-400M alas, unless we partnered up with eg Malaysia, but that's not where the NZGov-AusGov level focus is at). The NZ C-17 would spend alot of time in Aus for maint, training and supporting ADF, but that's also to cut costs of not needing to duplicate special maint facilities in NZ (they would probably be mainly based in OZ anyway, as they have the infrastruture there already in place. And why would that matter when country's even NZ in the past, base their a/c overseas). This then gets the NZDF heavier hardware (eg LAV etc) to theatre when a situation develops, supports Antarctic ops, shifting tons of cargo to Timor or to 5PDA exercises or joint ADF-NZDF exercises in OZ - as one can see they are critical for these purposes but wouldn't be used all the time (and that's when the C-130J comes in to take over routine tasks). This could then see the 757's sold (and VIP replaced by 737's, or smaller exec jets ,and again there are synergies in operating 737's in terms of eventual P-8 purchase and the ADF 737/P-8's etc).
(The other important aspect to note, is that under CDR, Closer Defence Relations, with Australia, any NZ contributions such as described above are more likely to be afforded higher Govt funding priorities, and are more likely to be ring-fenced from bean counter interference. The Timing is Everything doc spelt this out to a degree in the chapter examining NZ's failed purchase/lease of
HMAS Tobruk in the early/mid - 90's).
The same could apply with rotary heavy lift eg Chooks. To me the Chook is what the C-130H was to the NZDF when they were bought, opened up a new world of possibilities and efficiencies. So say 3 NZ Chooks could be bought, again mostly based in Oz for the same training/support reasons. They could be airlifted to NZ in C17's when events/taskings require them or for exercises (as for 99% of NZ internal SAR/CT roles, the NH90's and A109's will cover these - not Chooks). Chooks wouldn't spend their entire lives in Oz, they would be deployed to support NZDF/ADF Army ops overseas such as SAS and to move NZ Army heavy equipment quickly into theatre or an emergency deployment such as a future Timor or Solomons to establish a high-impact/high-threat presence. When the initial heavy lift is done, unless required eg SF, the Chooks leave and the MUH/LUH (NH90/A109) takes their place for day-to-day support. I know this is all just "in an ideal world" sort of thinking, but if NZ can work closer with Oz these ideas can be realised. The benefit to Aus includes additional availability and backup, or releases some ADF Army Chooks for other concurrent tasks etc.