I'm going to stick my neck out by suggesting:
1. Again that Timing is Everything
PDF (see pages 122/123) is rather hinting that the current Project Guardian (P-3K2) upgrade will allow the appropriate ASW modules to be integrated, and possibly at a comparatively cheap cost (seems to be suggesting several millions, maybe tens of millions of dollars, as opposed to hundreds of millions, but of course this needs to be confirmed once the proposed ASW system is defined etc).
Some reading on the new EL/M-2022 (V)3 surface search radar system being fitted to the P-3K2's:
http://www.iai.co.il/33693-35738-en/ELTA.aspx
http://www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/2/36832.pdf
Above-water warfare sensors for MPAs
From the last URL, it states:
"Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI)'s Elta division has scored success with its EL/M-2022A multi-mode maritime surveillance radar family, sold to equip both fixed-wing (MPAs, UAVs) and rotary- wing airborne platforms against strong competition from key US, UK and French suppliers. The radar is derived from the EL/M-2032 fire-control radar used in fighter aircraft, and is designed to perform maritime target surveillance, and economic exclusion zone protection and sea-traffic control.
There are three baseline versions: EL/M-2022A(V)1 lightweight/remote controlled for use on board UAVs; EL/M-2022A(V)2 and EL/M-2022A (V) 3. The last two are typically for use on board MPAs and the most capable one, the (V)3, at a weight of up to 103kg and a power consumption of 2.3kW, can detect a 1m[2] target in Sea State 3 out to 30nm (54km) and a small ship out to 80nm (144km), according to Elta data".
2. It's been said somewhere, once the Project Guardian P-3K2's are accepted into RNZAF service (seeing the project is a couple of years behind) supposedly early this year, then the next phases can commence (self defence and selection of an appropriate stand off weaponry etc).
3. I'd imagine once the P-3K2 is accepted into service and declared operational etc, the self-defence upgrade will be funded to commence. The reason, because the Govt will have a high-tech deployable platform and the self-defence upgrade will become a necessary requirement if the P-3K2's are to be deployed to the Middle East or Asia in support of current NZDF (or coalition) deployments (plus this was previously identified in Labour's LTDP's seeing that self-defence upgrades to aircraft deploying into theatres/ME Ops are a priority eg C-130H, P-3K2, new NH-90 etc). Perhaps this aspect can happen in parallel with the current upgrades when they commence on aircraft (is it ) 2 or 3 to 6?
4. Then the stand-off weapon situation. I would suggest that seeing the P-3K2's will have an overland survellience capability, it could be very well feasible to prioritise a land-attack munition (for NZDF/Coalition support in the ME, Asia, SE Asia etc) over a maritime-attack missile (unless it could perform both roles eg
SLAM-ER etc)? I'd suggest NZDF might be considering moving on from the Harpoon as there are a number of modern alternatives available now, so maybe the clue might be to see where the
ADF are heading (and other fora suggest unofficially there are no major issues with fitting the required wiring to the RNZAF's P-3 hard-points etc).
Just being both optimistic and realistic, so who knows, something else could come along and derail this etc. Incidentally the RNZAF practice ASW training with the ADF in their training areas, so there must still be some legacy ASW equipment on board the non-upgraded P-3K models (and surely they won't be transferring the old ASW kit over to the "new" P-3K2'S because of compatibility and integration issues, so maybe that could be a clue to a very near-future ASW upgrade....which the Govt has alluded to in DWP2010 (but fair call Gibbo, when is the question, but certainly before their eventual replacements it seems)!
Edit: re Fincastle Trophy, the RNZAF last won it in 1997 and 1998 according to Wikipedia (in their old P-3K's)! Looks like the Sunderland first won it for the RNZAF in 1964, so this must have been the guts of what you heard years ago, Ngatimozart)!
Fincastle competition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia