Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread

[Todjaeger]

The argument is that the US is advancing in these areas faster then the Chinese.

The issue is not so much that the US is advancing faster... IMO the US is actually advancing at a slower rate than the PRC, because the PRC is able to purchase either the actual technical information, or gather clues about technology, techniques and methodology from publications about capabilities, systems and technologies.

What the US has been able to do is establish significant, interconnected and interoperable systems, and then develop institutional/corporate knowledge of such systems and what they are capable of doing with them.

A case in point, the PRC has a small number of several different types of AEW aircraft/radars in the PLAAF inventory. This gives the PRC the potential for an AEW capability in a battlespace. In order for that to actually be useful in a given battlespace though, several conditions would need to be true. The first would be the actual presence of one (or more) of the PLAAF AEW aircraft. The second condition would be that PLAAF fighter aircraft present would need to have the correct type of comms, datalinks and avionics to make use of any information or direction coming from the PLAAF AEW. The third condition would be that both the AEW operators and fighter pilots would need to be trained to work together. If the operator does not know what information to give to the fighter pilot or when, then the AEW is of little use. At the same time, if the fighter pilot does not understand what they are being provided with from the operator aboard the AEW, then again the AEW is of little use.

The same situation exists for any other sensor platforms/systems that the PRC posseses. In order for such capabilities to be useful, the sensors need to exist and be in place providing detection capabilities where needed, there needs to be a mechanism to get information from the sensor to the decision maker and then to the shooter, and all links in the chain need to know what to do with the information they receive, when they receive it. While the PRC has made great strides in a number of areas, they have not built up the overall infrastructure or experience that provides true capability with a number of the advances that they do have.

-Cheers

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

The equivalent by-word in Chinese jargon is "informationalization". Its not new and its a key doctrine in PLA RMA.

Example in 2004.
People's Daily Online -- Chinese military speeds up informationalization: expert

Joint ops etc is something that the chinese recognise. Computing power with joint picture + datalinks is under-reported which gives the impression that such things do not exist or lag in China. The ability to operationalise and effectively use network capabilities and translate that into combat power is untested but I think the trend appears to be towards under-estimation than over-. Its not only recognised to benefit Chinese military power but offensive information warfare is another key component to deny aggressors the use of information networks ie electromagnetic dominance. Its been reflected in every CMPR since 2005 to congress.

I think Gates is actually misinformed when he mentioned that China has not conducted large scale exercises in joint ops conditions but the cautions in the following article also should be considered.
China Slowly, Steadily Improving Joint Ops - Defense News

Kuayue-2009: Shifts in PLA Military Planning? - The Jamestown Foundation

The US may have restricted AESA radars but one key tech that Israel is very good at (and doesn't require US licenses) is battlefield management systems.

For AEW, the fact that Pakistan actually bought AEWs from China when they had access to Saab's erieye says a lot. China is rolling out a large number of AWACs (including russki helo AEWs) in a bid to control the air.

Its not just having AEW. In peace mission 2010, China also conducted cross border precision airstrikes under SCO ambit which included co-ordination of AEW, J-10s, H-6s as well as aerial refuelling tankers.

 

[dingyibvs]

The argument is that the US is advancing in these areas faster then the Chinese.

That's unlikely. I don't doubt the U.S.'s capability of doing so, at least for the next decade, but it has a serious lack of intent vis-a-vis China. The threat level the U.S. faces is simply not comparable to that of China's with many advanced, antagonistic if not hostile militaries right around its periphery.

 

[fretburner]

Not sure if this is against forum rules but, after reading a blog at Ares, what's your take on whether or not the J-20 will "push" Japan to buy the JSF?

Reading from the comments here in that the J-20 design is more of a YF-23, i.e. optimized for speed and long range with pretty good frontal RCS (not super stealth and super agility), I think a F-15SE with ram coatings and AIM-120Ds would be more sensible than JSFs. That's if the F-15SE will be the same mach 2.5 class fighter.

 

[NICO]

Not sure if this is against forum rules but, after reading a blog at Ares, what's your take on whether or not the J-20 will "push" Japan to buy the JSF?

Reading from the comments here in that the J-20 design is more of a YF-23, i.e. optimized for speed and long range with pretty good frontal RCS (not super stealth and super agility), I think a F-15SE with ram coatings and AIM-120Ds would be more sensible than JSFs. That's if the F-15SE will be the same mach 2.5 class fighter.

Well, F22s not for sale, don't think F35 would be really what they need so you are left with Eurofighter equipped with Meteor, maybe with some Japanese customization like TVC or CFTS or F15 SE. The F15 is getting a bit old even though still in production, not sure how well it could stand up to J20, one advantage is it's in service, Japan has the license production so I guess they could produce SE in country. They have looked at their own design but it would be horrendously expense, Japan has probably all the technology they need but it is another story to make it all come together on one project. Also J20 has started flying, Japan would be years behind.

IMHO, I would go with Eurofighter with Meteor.

 

[SpudmanWP]

Two things will keep the F-15SE from going anywhere near Mach 2.5

1. Radar blockers in the inlet will degrade the performance of the engines.

2. The Fast packs will make the airframe draggier.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Not sure if this is against forum rules but, after reading a blog at Ares, what's your take on whether or not the J-20 will "push" Japan to buy the JSF?

See #310 on page 21 and #439 on page 30.

The J-20 may not push Japan but certainly Gates (as LM's marketing agent) is pushing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...should-buy-F-35-stealth-fighters-US-says.html

Reading from the comments here in that the J-20 design is more of a YF-23, i.e. optimized for speed and long range with pretty good frontal RCS (not super stealth and super agility), I think a F-15SE with ram coatings and AIM-120Ds would be more sensible than JSFs. That's if the F-15SE will be the same mach 2.5 class fighter.

I doubt if the USAF will ever acquire new build F-15SEs to tackle F-15SE wannabes. Might as well just restart the F-22 program. There might be a case to argue for upgrading the F-15Es to F-15SE standards ie conformal weapons bays. Its a quick way to gain a few hundred LO a/c notwithstanding the arguments that it will never be able to match a dedicated stealth design. That does not appear to be on the cards although discussion with Boeing has taken place on the future plans of the F-15Es.

Personally, I think the missile program will probably be reviewed. Radar guided missiles may have less effectiveness against a RCS reduced a/c and FMS sales will need to be justified. Korea and Japan will unlikely just buy meteors and amraam when this will be less effective against radar stealth targets. An extended range version of the AIM-9X or of a python-5 that utilises EO-imaging + IR might prove useful.

 

[fretburner]

^ Well, I was referring to JSDF (and perhaps South Korea). Afterall, the folks at Boeing have been saying that the F-15SE can match the JSF's frontal RCS should the USG allow them to do so. If they can indeed match the JSF's frontal RCS, then maybe the F-15SE would be able to match or at least get nearer the J-20's speed? I guess it's safe to assume that the J-20 would be a Mach 2 class fighter?

Regarding radar-guided missiles, maybe newer AESA radars will still be able to "paint" a J-20 (or similar) and guide it's missiles towards the "painted" target? Or maybe the J-20 doesn't have a LPI radar like the F-22 has, and therefore will still be exposed?

I know there's almost NO data/specs on the J-20 and probably will never be (available in public) for years to come, but it's good for discussion right?



Spudman, can't upgraded engines overcome the performance "degradation" brought about by redesigned inlets? Aren't South Korea's F-15Ks have upgraded engines?

Also, what are "fast packs"?


Nico, I think another thing going for Japan with the F-15SE option is their experience with AESA and RAM coatings (with their F-2 fighter).

 

[SpudmanWP]

Fast packs are the Fuel & weapon pods attached to the sides of the F-15E/K/SE/etc.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...l_FAST_PACK_fuel_tanks_060905-F-1234S-017.jpg

Larger version attached

 

[F-15 Eagle]

I doubt if the USAF will ever acquire new build F-15SEs to tackle F-15SE wannabes. Might as well just restart the F-22 program.

I don't know you could buy 2 F-15SE for the price of one F-35, and with the way the F-35 program is going right now you could cut the F-35A from 1763 aircraft to just 800 F-35s and instead substitute the cut F-35s for like 300 F-15SE and 600 new build F-16s and save billions of dollars to reduce the deficit and the USAF will still have the same number of fighters but with less money. Not to mention under this plan it would still be more powerful then it is now and far out class any other air force with half of the USAF still made up of 5th generation fighters with the other half being 4.5 generation.

But don't get people started on the F-22 production restart fantasy, with fantasy being the keyword because its never going to happen. They are buying 186 F-22s well actually 185 now because one recently crashed but still 185 is a sizable number but the F-22 line will be dead after this year.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

I don't know you could buy 2 F-15SE for the price of one F-35, and with the way the F-35 program is going right now you could cut the F-35A from 1763 aircraft to just 800 F-35s and instead substitute the cut F-35s for like 300 F-15SE and 600 new build F-16s and save billions of dollars to reduce the deficit and the USAF will still have the same number of fighters but with less money. Not to mention under this plan it would still be more powerful then it is now and far out class any other air force with half of the USAF still made up of 5th generation fighters with the other half being 4.5 generation.

But don't get people started on the F-22 production restart fantasy, with fantasy being the keyword because its never going to happen. They are buying 186 F-22s well actually 185 now because one recently crashed but still 185 is a sizable number but the F-22 line will be dead after this year.

The F-15SE is likely to be more expensive than an F-35A. Only "Likely" because the F-35A cost may yet go up more than even currently anticipated. More powerful aesa, bigger engines (and 2 vs 1). You might want to look at how much Korea paid for its F-15Ks and mark that up for the added stealth.

F-22 production line is actually ending next year (2012) rather than this.

I agree restart is unlikely but it is definitely not fantasy. LM would not be retaining its production tools if it was fantasy. The fact that the production tools will be preserved and funds allocated to ensure that means that the possibility of restart has not been eliminated just discounted. Its just a question of cost and justification. The problems with the F-35 production and the introduction of the J-XX provides the latter.

Lockheed to preserve F-22 tooling for future use

It is no coincidence that the first meeting of the USCC is to discuss the chinese military on the 27th.

 

[OpinionNoted]

But don't get people started on the F-22 production restart fantasy, with fantasy being the keyword because its never going to happen. They are buying 186 F-22s well actually 185 now because one recently crashed but still 185 is a sizable number but the F-22 line will be dead after this year.

If the us government has any sense then it is an im[possibilty for f22 to be cancelled for good...soon there will be an anouncement for additional airframes and once f35 is cancelled,then exports ...laugh if you will but it WILL happen and not because of me wanting f22 for raaf but because f35 will be out classed...its just plain obvious.

edit-big call i know but if im wrong then im just another cluless fanboi who has no buissness on these forums so time will tell so please give the ensuing hate posts a pass...thanks.

 

[Todjaeger]

If the us government has any sense then it is an im[possibilty for f22 to be cancelled for good...soon there will be an anouncement for additional airframes and once f35 is cancelled,then exports ...laugh if you will but it WILL happen and not because of me wanting f22 for raaf but because f35 will be out classed...its just plain obvious.

edit-big call i know but if im wrong then im just another cluless fanboi who has no buissness on these forums so time will tell so please give the ensuing hate posts a pass...thanks.

Not to derail the thread into discussion of the F-22, but it is already too late to avoid a line shutdown. IIRC the cut off point was mid-2009 for long-lead items. Since that window has come and gone, even with the line still open, if the US placed additional orders right now for more F-22 Raptors, there would be a gap in production.

LM is keeping the tooling so that production can be restarted, if need be. Unless there is a sizable block of new orders placed though, the cost per airplane would be quite high due to a need to reactivate the line. There would also likely be a few years between the decision to re-open the line being made, and new aircraft rolling off the lines.

-Cheers

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Could the J-20 public disclosure be in part attributable to the North Korea situation?

The military balance on the Korean peninsular has clearly tilted way in favor of South Korea and America. The only barrier to military action against North Korea is the possibility of Chinese intervention.

If Chinese intervention is not credible, then its deterrent effect is lost. China may not actually need to have effective weapons. It may only need to appear to potentially have such weapons eg stealth fighters to throw a spanner into military calculations.

Appear strong when weak - Sun Tzu

 

[swerve]

Could the J-20 public disclosure be in part attributable to the North Korea situation?

The military balance on the Korean peninsular has clearly tilted way in favor of South Korea and America. The only barrier to military action against North Korea is the possibility of Chinese intervention.

I'd say that the biggest barrier is that it would cost a huge amount in lives & treasure, & the possibility of Chinese intervention is a lot lower in the list of reasons not to start a war.

 

[Aussie Digger]

If the us government has any sense then it is an im[possibilty for f22 to be cancelled for good...soon there will be an anouncement for additional airframes and once f35 is cancelled,then exports ...laugh if you will but it WILL happen and not because of me wanting f22 for raaf but because f35 will be out classed...its just plain obvious.

edit-big call i know but if im wrong then im just another cluless fanboi who has no buissness on these forums so time will tell so please give the ensuing hate posts a pass...thanks.

Outclassed eh? Please pray tell, what it is exactly about any of the tech demonstrator aircraft that have been rolled out that "outclasses" the in-production F-35 aircraft?

These demonstrator aircraft have no radar. No sensors of any kind in fact. No weapon systems, no comms or networking systems and indeed only basic flight control systems. They each have enormous problems with their level of Low Observability, their engine development and their reliability AND there is nothing more than sheer speculation to go on about their performance.

China has yet to show that she can produce a modern military turbofan or turbojet engine. It is struggling to develop the J-10, yet because it rolls out something that looks like a MiG1.44 crossed with an F-22 and adopting a few features off other aircraft, all of a sudden the most extensively developed and most expensive Western aircraft ever produced (and unlike any Chinese or Russian 5th Gen it actually IS in production) is "outclassed".

As our American brothers state, "stop drinking the kool-aid" my friend. Serious analysis of military capability has taken a back seat to scare-mongering based on agendas and all too many are seemingly falling in with this mode of thinking.

The same sort of rubbish was written when the F-15 was being developed. It wasn't agile enough, didn't carry enough weapons, radar was too complicated, can't buy enough of them and so on. Same with the Chinese/Soviet SAM systems. Our aircraft can't survive, we're outmatched blah blah blah.

101 to nil air combat victories later for the F-15 and IADS after IADS completely flattened by forces largely comprised of so-called "second tier" fighters within days has rather put paid to most of those ideas in reality and yet now that a new round of air combat aircraft and SAM systems are being built the same sort of rubbish analysis is being conducted.

Funny how the West are accused of never learning anything from history, but our "enemies" aren't ever accused of the same sort of malaise and yet THEY are the ones who are always playing catch-up...

 

[Feanor]

I'd say that the biggest barrier is that it would cost a huge amount in lives & treasure, & the possibility of Chinese intervention is a lot lower in the list of reasons not to start a war.

Exactly. The best deterrent is the thousands of conventional arty and MLRS tubes pointed south, ready to incinerate Seoul, and surrounding population centers.

 

[Davyd]

What wonders me on its' launch is how it supposedly took us by surprise. Like aforementioned, compared to how fast the US & China advance their respective technologies. It's more like how long it seems to take each country. Sure, you can say (as some articles do in fact) that the F-22 is already twelve years on. But that's not how long the US has fielded the planes combat ready. It takes waaay too long to develop aircraft nowadays. I long for the 50s when aircraft seemed to churn out from the design table to the front line in a year. And that's the point - it takes too damn long to RDT&E aircraft now. But apparently not for China. Or maybe even Russia. Unless we haven't heard the whole story (which knowing governments we haven't). China seems to have spewed this thing out of nowhere. Do they have development like the US does? If so, this thing has been in the system for at least a few years already. The Russian version has well, but it was better documented. Obviously the US plane was, the competition back in '90 was well documented. But how are the Chinese getting this thing to the air so quick? Or was it even that quick? And that's a scarier thought - they've had the idea so long that only the Americans beat them to the punch. Cause if they're taking off now there hasn't been much time between fielding the F-22 and testing the J-20.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

What wonders me on its' launch is how it supposedly took us by surprise.

It didn't take the govt. by surprise it took the defence media by surprise. The two are very different.

Like aforementioned, compared to how fast the US & China advance their respective technologies. It's more like how long it seems to take each country. Sure, you can say (as some articles do in fact) that the F-22 is already twelve years on. But that's not how long the US has fielded the planes combat ready. It takes waaay too long to develop aircraft nowadays. I long for the 50s when aircraft seemed to churn out from the design table to the front line in a year. And that's the point - it takes too damn long to RDT&E aircraft now.

Sure but then you get 1950s technology planes not 21st century ones. The key difference is the highly complex mission systems. It only took the F-22 and F-35 teams about two years from contract to first flight of the YF-22 and X-35 flying demonstrators. But it takes a lot longer to build something with LO and integrated sensors.

[But apparently not for China. Or maybe even Russia. Unless we haven't heard the whole story (which knowing governments we haven't). China seems to have spewed this thing out of nowhere. Do they have development like the US does? If so, this thing has been in the system for at least a few years already. The Russian version has well, but it was better documented. Obviously the US plane was, the competition back in '90 was well documented. But how are the Chinese getting this thing to the air so quick? Or was it even that quick? And that's a scarier thought - they've had the idea so long that only the Americans beat them to the punch. Cause if they're taking off now there hasn't been much time between fielding the F-22 and testing the J-20.

The J-XX/J-20 has been around for years. Look at the start date of this thread: 2005. The program has been underway for 10 years. The difference here is not that China or Russia can do things much quicker than the USA but their programs don’t have the same kind of publicity or public reporting requirements. Unfortunately this is enough to fuel simplistic sensationalism.

 

[NICO]

You raise some good points there Abraham, this has been in dev. for probably at least 10 years, in secrecy that rivals a black program in the US and let's not forget, does the China govt. intend anytime soon (unlikely) to reveal the cost of this program? LOL I also don't expect to hear many complaints on Chinese forums/population about problems and calls for terminating the program like what faces LMT with F35.

I am really curious to see what happens now, does the program move back into secrecy or do the Chinese continue showing us clips of their jet for the next couple of years?