Re:
Success won't retire until around 2020.
Tot the plan was to replace the success in 2015 and then sirius in 2020 with a purpose built vessel...
Since the number of ex surplus military AORs that have entered commercial use as tankers or even static tankers is currently running at a steady state of zero it’s a pretty fair call to say that Success will have the same post service career path.
Depends. Purpose-built replenishment oilers doesn't exactly have a long service history. Most replenishment tankers used in the past by most navies were tanker conversions. But agreed, can't find an example of a dedicated oiler being converted to a tanker at this time.
Not stating that its not a fair possibility that it will end up stricken or scrapped. Equally important from a historical perspective is none of those got double hulled at age 24.
However, you're not stating its a fair possibility. You're stating that its a virtual certainty that it can't be used as a tanker. That imho is not unfeasible. Its not a pet theory but a question of technical feasibility. Just because replenishment ships get scrapped does not invalidate the possibility.
Also almost every ship with long service histories in the RAN in recent years has been disposed of as a dive wreck so it’s a fair bet that the same fate awaits Success. She just might not need as much in the way of demolition charges to get to the sea floor…
Agreed, and the key word is almost. Just as the most recent example of the Westralia which incidentally was itself bought from the RFA, a commercial onsale is possible. Considering that most of other Durance class tankers are still in use, the question of how much hull life is left has to be asked.
But please ’62 feel free to hold your pet theory. It’s just unreasonable to expect the rest of us to not shoot holes in it when it just doesn’t add up. Don’t take it personally but.
As usual, I do not begrudge anyone their opinions, however incorrect it may be nor do I expect them to agree. However, just stating my opinion that for Success to be used as a tanker is not an impossibility, at least on technical grounds. I haven't read anything that suggests otherwise that would change that opinion, with due respect to your highlighting the lack of historical precedent.
Cheers!