A hypothetical carrier buy for the RAN?

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SASWanabe

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My grandfather (Who was a captain in the MN during WWII) told me as a little child "i would rather have a gun than need one" he was sayig he would rather his ship be armed even if the guns never got fired once, Just in the off chance they ever would.

This is how i see a Carrier, We dont "Need" one right now, but we might sometime later. so its better to buy one and have a well trained crew just in the off chance...

The British, French, Brazilians and Italians all see a need for CVs and their reigons are alot less "Volatile" than ours.

If the Chinese are to be believed by 2020 theyre going to have:

5th Gen Fighters

2 Carriers
and
50+ Subs

is that not reason enough for a carrier?
 

Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
My grandfather (Who was a captain in the MN during WWII) told me as a little child "i would rather have a gun than need one" he was sayig he would rather his ship be armed even if the guns never got fired once, Just in the off chance they ever would.
This is a defence commentary forum so I don’t think you will find many people who will disagree with this kind of logic. You will also probably not find many people who would disagree with boosting Australia’s defence commitment to well over 2% of GDP and cleaning out the Defence bureaucracy so we can actually spend that money on equipment, trained uniformed personnel and more.

But back in the real world none of that is likely to happen. So any carrier acquisition would be at a major loss to current capability.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The second carrier will either be mothballed alongside as a helicopter carrier (no CATOBAR) or in refit to CATOBAR capability until about 2024 or sold.
Sorry, but this is wrong. There won't be any 'refit to a CATOBAR capability'. Completion of the first carrier will be delayed to allow catapults to be fitted during construction. The second carrier will necessarily be delayed behind the first. If the decision is made to fit catapults (a decision postponed to the next review), they'll be fitted during building, not in any refit.

By 2020 we should have one operational carrier, & one completed but put straight into reserve. Since the first of the three options in the SDSR for that carrier is rotation with the other one, & the second to allow for us needing two active carriers, it seems most likely they'll both be completed to the same spec.
 

SASWanabe

Member
Sorry, but this is wrong. There won't be any 'refit to a CATOBAR capability'. Completion of the first carrier will be delayed to allow catapults to be fitted during construction. The second carrier will necessarily be delayed behind the first. If the decision is made to fit catapults (a decision postponed to the next review), they'll be fitted during building, not in any refit.

By 2020 we should have one operational carrier, & one completed but put straight into reserve. Since the first of the three options in the SDSR for that carrier is rotation with the other one, & the second to allow for us needing two active carriers, it seems most likely they'll both be completed to the same spec.
sorry mate but i believe your wrong.... as i understand PoW is going to be fitted with Cats+Traps in construction as QE is to far along to add them...

so QE wont be delayed (Just wont have any planes to launch). The UK government might consider refitting it after its constructed, i think thats what Abraham is meaning.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
sorry mate but i believe your wrong.... as i understand PoW is going to be fitted with Cats+Traps in construction as QE is to far along to add them...

so QE wont be delayed (Just wont have any planes to launch). The UK government might consider refitting it after its constructed, i think thats what Abraham is meaning.
You're still quoting pre-SDSR press speculation which has been proved wrong by the SDSR.

I've read the SDSR. I have a copy on this computer. It specifically says (pp 22 & 23) that QE will be delivered with cat & trap, & will be delayed to allow it. It also says (& I've watched the defence minister repeating this on TV, & heard him on the radio), that the delay will mean that QE is commissioned complete with operational F-35Cs.
 

bonehead

New Member
This is my understanding as well, QE is not at the stage of installation of any launch system,and as prev stated designed, so if the MOD changed its mind during construction on the type of plane, there was no delay in the construction programme, both ships will be completed to same full spec and rotate, as a result.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #247
I see where your coming from but a carrier opens up tonnes of options, such as in the event of a disaster you could load the carrier up with CH-47 and load an LHD up with relief supplies sail both to the place in question and just transfer CH-47 to the LHD load em up, Send em in, Back to the carrier to refuel while they wait to transfer over again to load up. not to mention if the LHD's ever did actualy land troops on hostile shores a carrier providing CAS would be an advantage.

thats just my imagination working but im sure others could come up with more realistic situatons where a carrier would be an advantage.


We have done this before with the old HMAS Melbourne in 1974 cyclone Tracy relief mission, taking up essential rebuilding supplies, but with the arrival of the Canberra class LHD that is one of the roles intended for her and one will be more suited to.

It is a shock to the system to see the RN will be savagely cut in size and capability, but one which could potently benefit Australia. Others have mentioned the getting cut priced Bay class; she should be the priority for the RAN as it should be.

If it can be done with a favourable outcome for Australia to acquire a Queen Elizabeth class with no loss of other capability and if the government can look forward (look at a gift horse in the mouth) it will be an asset for Australia for the long term. The RAAF should be looking at the challenge it will bring and the benefits’ that the Super hornet will still be an asset out to 2035 USN will still have them a small purchase of 24 F35C JSF that put us with 48 carrier capable aircraft ideally the 70 F35A model buy still stands RAAF will have no loss of aircraft and capability but an increase in size of 18 aircraft.

Peace time manning could be 12 Super Hornet 12 F35C JSF on a rotational basis’ with the ability to fill out with the others in time of need , but we will only have the one operational cruise which would work with the other RN asset, Australia commits one then the UK pending on the needs of commitment.

I believe their will be many benefits’ as a whole to the ADF with a purchase of a cheap as chips light carrier in service in the 2018/20 time frame,

1, additional posting and career enhancement potential RAAF members
2, additional posting and career enhancement for RAN members
3, better working relationships with both the RN and USN
4, more and better options in dealing national security problems closer to home or world wide
5. Forward presence, deterrence, sea control, power projection, maritime security.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
its a good thing that this is hypothetical - because there is no money in the till - even if they give us these ships for nothing, we can't pay the maintenance and support for the 20-30 years they'd be in service.

unless you want to kill off other programs which are fare more useful and actually are needed.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #249
its a good thing that this is hypothetical - because there is no money in the till - even if they give us these ships for nothing, we can't pay the maintenance and support for the 20-30 years they'd be in service.

unless you want to kill off other programs which are fare more useful and actually are needed.


But the money is there, it’s called robbing peter to make the government look good to get re-elected and pork barrelling pandering to the greens to stay in government. That 20 billion in saving that they want might be justified in some areas and not in others should be reinvested in defence, money should be spent wisely

42 billion invested in a NBN that will be obsolete when finished when we have the tech now to build it wireless for one third of the cost and cover 100% of Australia .who say we don’t have the money!!!
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
But the money is there, it’s called robbing peter to make the government look good to get re-elected and pork barrelling pandering to the greens to stay in government. That 20 billion in saving that they want might be justified in some areas and not in others should be reinvested in defence, money should be spent wisely
no. the defence money is completely separated from other departments. the only plus for defence though is that the Govt has guaranteed that our money will not go back to consolidated revenue.. all the other departments will lose their money as it goes into the pretend "bucket."

42 billion invested in a NBN that will be obsolete when finished when we have the tech now to build it wireless for one third of the cost and cover 100% of Australia .who say we don’t have the money!!!
but that hsa nothing to do with how Govt allocated money to defence. we are not in the common bucket - if anything our funds are protected from other departments.

even if the NBN didn't exist we wouldn't get one brass zac out of that 42bn if it was in play.

there seems to be some misconception about what money actually is available and/or exists.

there is no magical bucket - the $42bn is pretend money - it also doesn;t exist and is based on nn years of allocations. in actual fact defence has come out better than everyone else as the Govt has made a commitment that any savings we make will stay within defence. - except we haven't been able to save any money because it was taken from our budget to force defence to save.
 

Seaforth

New Member
there is no magical bucket - the $42bn is pretend money - it also doesn;t exist and is based on nn years of allocations.
and most likely a fair chunk of the $42bn is based on revenue earned from the NBN returned back to the NBN for further roll out.

But then none of us have actually seen the business case! :rolleyes:
 

Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
If you want to fix the expenditure of the Australian Government targeting a productive national infrastructure project is not the way to do it. A national fibre optic network should have been built 10 years ago but John Howard was busy presiding over a generation of non investment in infrastructure to introduce the most massive situation of middle class welfare ever seen in this country.

An enduring middle class welfare system after the Rudd-Gillard governments have left it untouched (well expanded on it to be true). This is some $50 billion a year spent on people who can afford to live without it. This includes family tax benefits, private school funding, subsidies for private health insurance and so on.

Scrapping these vote buying mechanism would easily allow for a 4% of GDP per annum expenditure on defence in addition to considerable increase in productive national infrastructure investment. Of course doubling the Australian defence budget would see a huge amount lost on existing massive bureaucratic inefficiencies.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Of course doubling the Australian defence budget would see a huge amount lost on existing massive bureaucratic inefficiencies.
have a royal commission where witnesses are protected from dismissal and pursuit and where ministers and their staff can be forced to attend and there will be no shortage of volunteers.... :)
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Fixed price contracts with budgets for large scale defense projects compulsorily audited by independent auditors and a limit to how many smaller scale defense projects that may be conducted each year. Audit to cover timelines, budgets, project definition etc.

Does not have to wait for any increase of investment to implement.

Problem is budgeting processes are internalised. It leads to unrealistic and hopeful budgeting processes. Few governments would subject themselves to that level of scrutiny either cos its administratively combersome. Always tot a billion $ defence project deserves their own independent oversight. Most oversight aren't exactly "independent".

When auditors are themselves exposed to incompetency lawsuits, the level of scrutiny and control increases. If one forces a person to sign off with personal liability, that changes the ballgame.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Fixed price contracts with budgets for large scale defense projects compulsorily audited by independent auditors and a limit to how many smaller scale defense projects that may be conducted each year. Audit to cover timelines, budgets, project definition etc.
The US, UK, Canada and Australia have all paid a price for having fixed price contracts - they're not always appropriate on large capital prograns. They are less than useful for tech and software programs. Contracts are about approp flexibility. Fixed price, time and materials, defined work, outcome based contracts for smaller elements etc all have their place.


Problem is budgeting processes are internalised. It leads to unrealistic and hopeful budgeting processes. Few governments would subject themselves to that level of scrutiny either cos its administratively combersome. Always tot a billion $ defence project deserves their own independent oversight. Most oversight aren't exactly "independent".
they're not internalised in australia at all. they are subject to reviews by other non defence agencies (who specialise in Defence projects) before they get to various phases - and must go through various reviews by steering groups and security counsils before they can go to the next stage.

When auditors are themselves exposed to incompetency lawsuits, the level of scrutiny and control increases. If one forces a person to sign off with personal liability, that changes the ballgame.
Haviing spent part of my career as a commonwealth auditor, and in a financial investigations unit, this does not ring true either. Its not the auditors who are the problem. Govt can dictate direction that the services may not seek. This has happened in the past (and everything before this post response is logically in the past).

I'm suggesting liability against Ministers and Political Partys who change decisions due to idealogical philosophies - Ministers and their staff are unaccountable - everyone else is, Ministers don't even go through the same clearance issues that we all have to go through. If they did then quite a few would not get passed Restricted.... :)..

The Australian public gets to find out about procurement history at the end of various 30 Year ruiles, and even then they can be extended in the national interest. They rarely get the proper story "recently"

btw, I've worked on all sides of the shop, I've been the company owner, I've been the contractor, I've been the consultant and I've worked the Govt side of the job. I've done it both in oz and overseas.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

The US, UK, Canada and Australia have all paid a price for having fixed price contracts - they're not always appropriate on large capital prograns. They are less than useful for tech and software programs. Contracts are about approp flexibility. Fixed price, time and materials, defined work, outcome based contracts for smaller elements etc all have their place.
Agreed. But increasingly large scale projects are moving towards fixed price ones to reduce liability. An example would be the US tanker acquisition. The reason is that the US has paid a price for not having fixed price contracts eg F-22/35 cost overruns. I would guess even the AEW or the collins in Australia can be cited as opposing examples.

they're not internalised in australia at all. they are subject to reviews by other non defence agencies (who specialise in Defence projects) before they get to various phases - and must go through various reviews by steering groups and security counsils before they can go to the next stage.
Are the non defence agencies within the Govt or outside the Govt. I'm talking about true perception of independence here. With due respect to the integrity of existing reviewers, its a little hard to question when the person one is questioning is the same ultimate employer.

Haviing spent part of my career as a commonwealth auditor, and in a financial investigations unit, this does not ring true either. Its not the auditors who are the problem. Govt can dictate direction that the services may not seek. This has happened in the past (and everything before this post response is logically in the past).
I'm talking about on a project by project audit sign offs. I am not aware external auditors review defence projects at that level.

I'm not stating auditors are the problem but the solution. Get them to sign off.

I'm suggesting liability against Ministers and Political Partys who change decisions due to idealogical philosophies - Ministers and their staff are unaccountable - everyone else is, Ministers don't even go through the same clearance issues that we all have to go through. If they did then quite a few would not get passed Restricted.... :)..

The Australian public gets to find out about procurement history at the end of various 30 Year ruiles, and even then they can be extended in the national interest. They rarely get the proper story "recently"

btw, I've worked on all sides of the shop, I've been the company owner, I've been the contractor, I've been the consultant and I've worked the Govt side of the job. I've done it both in oz and overseas.
Personally, I don't think one can restrict change of decisions between or within Govts. Otherwise there will be decision inertia ie stuck in the past mentality. There are sufficient legislation governing fraud but little governing incompetency beyond firing a low level scapegoat (and occassionally someone slightly higher up).

What an auditor can do is to validate the financial numbers underlining a defence decision. If the numbers don't bear out or are unrealistic, an independent auditor tasked to do so can raise a red flag. The question is who in Government dares to raise a red flag on a ministerial decision?

The political opposition are supposed to be a check on the govt but they certainly don't have the internal access to numbers.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Agreed. But increasingly large scale projects are moving towards fixed price ones to reduce liability. An example would be the US tanker acquisition. The reason is that the US has paid a price for not having fixed price contracts eg F-22/35 cost overruns. I would guess even the AEW or the collins in Australia can be cited as opposing examples.
not the US, in fact the US has had people over here recently to look at our contracting systems, they're keen to adopt some of our processes. Fixed price contracts are not the panacea for our procurement ills.. what we are moving away from are time and materials based contracts, the remainder is used in combination,

Are the non defence agencies within the Govt or outside the Govt. I'm talking about true perception of independence here. With due respect to the integrity of existing reviewers, its a little hard to question when the person one is questioning is the same ultimate employer.
I'd suggest that you've never worked in australian procurement otherwise you'd realise that the hardest grief we get are from Dept of Finance - thats all a legacy of Kinnaird

I'm talking about on a project by project audit sign offs. I am not aware external auditors review defence projects at that level.
we're accountable at manager level now, its built into our performance reviews, we are accountable and the govt won't support us if we don't do our job approp. That however doesn't extend to Ministers and their staff. Level the playing field and the the outcomes would probably be very different.

I'm not stating auditors are the problem but the solution. Get them to sign off.
there are multiple sign off stages now - thats not the issue. Its about the govt exercising privilege and holding others to account for what are their own initiated stuff ups. again, make everyone accountable.


Personally, I don't think one can restrict change of decisions between or within Govts. Otherwise there will be decision inertia ie stuck in the past mentality. There are sufficient legislation governing fraud but little governing incompetency beyond firing a low level scapegoat (and occassionally someone slightly higher up).
in australia? the process you describe is not in context for australia. the legislative change needs to be about the capacity to hold the cabinet and the executive to account - everyone else is already.


What an auditor can do is to validate the financial numbers underlining a defence decision. If the numbers don't bear out or are unrealistic, an independent auditor tasked to do so can raise a red flag. The question is who in Government dares to raise a red flag on a ministerial decision?
I know of a number of ex ministers who were pursued informally about issues of fraud and potential misconduct. If I didn't like my job so much I'd happily tell political war stories about what I have personally seen - not second hand internet "he said, she said, my friend said" stories. alas, until the rules change, then its reserved for a selected sympathetic and all knowing few who have also traveled similar paths to "unenlightenment."

You are not going to allow independant auditors anywhere near progs like UDT, specforces, ewarfare programs etc....

The political opposition are supposed to be a check on the govt but they certainly don't have the internal access to numbers.
they are not necessarily approp to use as a litmus test either. Its why subs and specials are political footballs in this country - esp subs. Every journo is an expert, 99% of them are tools and fools.
 

Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
But increasingly large scale projects are moving towards fixed price ones to reduce liability. An example would be the US tanker acquisition. The reason is that the US has paid a price for not having fixed price contracts eg F-22/35 cost overruns. I would guess even the AEW or the collins in Australia can be cited as opposing examples.
You can't develop new generations of technology on fixed price. The last time the US tried that was the A-12A. $5 billion down the drain with nothing to show except continued litigation.

When I talked about bureaucratic inefficiencies its far more than contractor overruns. It’s a hugely inefficient personnel base, its hours a week of hard working coal face operators wasted on compliance. Its 20,000 people in ADF/DoD who don’t contribute to capability. Its acquiring the wrong capability like the LPAs that cost twice as much to deliver, came in 5 years late (during which we had one major amphibious operation without them) and have provided only 10 years of service.

The solution is a major imposed war or a crusading government minister and subsequent Royal Commission. Neither are likely
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

I'd suggest that you've never worked in australian procurement otherwise you'd realise that the hardest grief we get are from Dept of Finance - thats all a legacy of Kinnaird
But the dept of finance is still not independent (with due respect to the people at the finance dept). The budgeting constraint are still limited by government perspective rather than independent reviewers considering the subject.

An independent person will be more objective about the viability of the project rather than a department of finance with vested interest to forward certain existing government objectives. When Government changes, the budgeting process that decisions are based on will often change eg UK cancellation of projects etc. I'm sure their MoD finance tot it worked during the Brown Government but clearly there was a change in priorities thereafter when Cameron took over.

we're accountable at manager level now, its built into our performance reviews, we are accountable and the govt won't support us if we don't do our job approp. That however doesn't extend to Ministers and their staff. Level the playing field and the the outcomes would probably be very different.
It is not the managers level that is the issue. Commercially, we know managers will do (almost) anything to sweet talk their way into a deal. Its not just accountability but an independent person validating what the managers are proposing.

there are multiple sign off stages now - thats not the issue. Its about the govt exercising privilege and holding others to account for what are their own initiated stuff ups. again, make everyone accountable.
That's not the point, the question again is that at every process, how independent is the judgement made. Its no point firing a manager after a $3 billion project gets cancelled when an independent reviewer could have raised a red flag even before the first cent is sunk in.

An example in the case of the UK, an independent auditor worth his salt would have raised a red flag about the cancellation penalties of the QE carriers. A contract review would have thrown that as a sign off requirement for top management rather than a manager. That would have placed accountability right at the top for making such decisions.

You are not going to allow independant auditors anywhere near progs like UDT, specforces, ewarfare programs etc....
And why not? Auditors are covered by NDAs. Auditors that audit defence contractors often need Government clearance at the highest level. I know cos I went through that. There are severe penalties on unauthorised release of classified information.

Even if there are programmes that may be justified in restricted access, I fail to see how aircraft procurement eg fighters etc could fall within that restricted access category.

Auditors may not need to have access to classified technology to know whether a project is at risk of cost overruns. For $ billion projects, I would allow an independent pair of eyes to make an independent assessment regarding such budgets.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
But the dept of finance is still not independent (with due respect to the people at the finance dept). The budgeting constraint are still limited by government perspective rather than independent reviewers considering the subject.
DOFD nor independant of Defence? tell mw you're joking...

An independent person will be more objective about the viability of the project rather than a department of finance with vested interest to forward certain existing government objectives. When Government changes, the budgeting process that decisions are based on will often change eg UK cancellation of projects etc. I'm sure their MoD finance tot it worked during the Brown Government but clearly there was a change in priorities thereafter when Cameron took over.
I think you misunderstand the role of auditors by some margin...


It is not the managers level that is the issue. Commercially, we know managers will do (almost) anything to sweet talk their way into a deal. Its not just accountability but an independent person validating what the managers are proposing.
you clearly don't undertstand how procurement works in australian defence. managers can't sweet talk anything, there are independant stakeholders and reviewers involved at every step of the way - this includes reviewers who have no idea about the capability and in some cases one could argue that they have a conflict in operational interest. they certainly provide a counter point.

That's not the point, the question again is that at every process, how independent is the judgement made. Its no point firing a manager after a $3 billion project gets cancelled when an independent reviewer could have raised a red flag even before the first cent is sunk in.
what australian program worth 3bn has been cancelled?? I suggest that you understand the procurement and mulltiple pass model initially proposed by kinnaird before discussing australian procurement. everything you're speaking about is already in place due to kinnaird. the issue is about Govt exercising resident privilege in some programs

An example in the case of the UK, an independent auditor worth his salt would have raised a red flag about the cancellation penalties of the QE carriers. A contract review would have thrown that as a sign off requirement for top management rather than a manager. That would have placed accountability right at the top for making such decisions.
which would have been picked up by DOFD in australia, as they are the questions and things that they do in their role before Govt/cabinet and the Security Council blesses a project into the next pass.

Crikey the last thing we want is independents casting their pearls of capability illiteracy over projects like subs, ewarfare, joint capabilities..

auditors look for breaches of process
reviewers look for compliance - not tactical benefit
govt and cabinet defines the processes.

to change the process you need Govt/Cabinet to do so - and therein lies the problem. hence how subs become a political football.

And why not? Auditors are covered by NDAs. Auditors that audit defence contractors often need Government clearance at the highest level. I know cos I went through that. There are severe penalties on unauthorised release of classified information.
you cannot be serious? DOFD already have people cleared to the approp levels, as do ANAO.

Even if there are programmes that may be justified in restricted access, I fail to see how aircraft
procurement eg fighters etc could fall within that restricted access category.
because the capabilities are joint - they effect a quantum of other critical capabilities. The fatships, subs, specials, ewarfare etc all play in the purple space, wtf would you let someone who is not across all the issues look at all. you seem to have a very narrow comprehension of what the auditors/reviewers role is and can be, they are not SME's

Auditors may not need to have access to classified technology to know whether a project is at risk of cost overruns. For $ billion projects, I would allow an independent pair of eyes to make an independent assessment regarding such budgets.
which is what DOFD do, and if you think that DOFD are not independant of the Defence procurement process, then I suggest that you are absolutely theorising about the australian process rather than understanding how it actually works.
 
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