The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

Twickiwi

New Member
Journalists are starting to catch up

Reported this morning on the Today programme BBC4:
[Paraphrasing]
Cost of completing 2 QEII class carriers £5.4 billion, the cost of cancelling PoW and completing QEII by itself £5.7 billion, therefore it makes more sense to build both. However, the aircraft order for both may/will be cut.

They also talked about Army numbers being safer, but tanks are very likely to go.

If these ardent defence obscurantists are starting to get the overall picture, the politicians and the guys with lots of gold trim on their hats must be starting to send similar messages to their pet journalists.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Reported this morning on the Today programme BBC4:
[Paraphrasing]
Cost of completing 2 QEII class carriers £5.4 billion, the cost of cancelling PoW and completing QEII by itself £5.7 billion, therefore it makes more sense to build both. However, the aircraft order for both may/will be cut.

They also talked about Army numbers being safer, but tanks are very likely to go.

If these ardent defence obscurantists are starting to get the overall picture, the politicians and the guys with lots of gold trim on their hats must be starting to send similar messages to their pet journalists.
Which is an indirect way of saying the RAF bears the brunt. It doesn't make sense to have carrier capable F-35Bs in the RAF whilst there isn't enough for RN's carriers.

Might as well split it ie RAF with typhoons only, RN with the F-35s.
 

riksavage

Banned Member
Which is an indirect way of saying the RAF bears the brunt. It doesn't make sense to have carrier capable F-35Bs in the RAF whilst there isn't enough for RN's carriers.

Might as well split it ie RAF with typhoons only, RN with the F-35s.
RAF will bite the bullet and end up with two manned fast air platforms Typhoon and F35B. I do agree F35B should be an FAA asset only though.

The current thinking appears to be keep QE active with fifty F35B's ordered for both RAF & FAA and keep a down graded PW in reserve to be used only as a back-up when QE is in refit.

The RAF will end up supplementing its manned platforms with cheaper UAV/UCAV's hopefully capable of carrier deployment. So not all bad news, they will soon have 10 Reapers online.

By cutting back the number of fixed wing fast air there's an argument for cancelling the hugely expensive PFI tanker deal and go for a cheaper alternative.

50 F35B's should allow for at least 12 to be based permanently aboard QE during peace time, surging to twice that if required for active service. 12 will also allow for a sizable number of Merlin, Wildcat and Apache to provide additional support to 3 Commando.

On a brighter note should the economy improve a second batch of F35B's and an upgrade of PW can be financed.
 

1805

New Member
The problem with defence projects is that by the time the come to fruition in todays ever changing world they have either been superseded by technology or the threat has changed.

The MRA4 was designed to hunt modern submarines. It is a state of the art platform, which has amazing capabilities for ISTAR and sub hunting. Unfortunately it provides overkill in a time of austerity. Russian Akula's are no longer populating the North Atlantic at a level consitant with the orginal concept behind MRA4. And whilst the platform would be useful in A-Stan, there are cheaper and better solutions out there.

RAF Waddington will soon be up and running as the default UK center of excellence for UAV activity. Previously this was centered at Creech in the US. Whilst we have paid for MRA4, it remains a very expensive over spec'd asset to keep running over an expected life-cycle of 25 plus years. Whilst a modern UAV looks expensive on paper, over the long term it will prove far more versatile, easier to upgrade and cheaper to keep in the air. For example the UK would risk sending a modern UAV over hostile territory (recent Pakistan example), but never a manned platform unless total secrecy is guaranteed. The last thing the UK or any other western nation needs or wants is a Gary Powers moment. A shot down UAV whilst embarrassing is acceptable politically and on the home front. Plus the amount of time and energy companies such as BAE are putting into UAV/UCAV development it would not be too difficult to fit the selected system with marinized weapons (SeaSkua II for example). Whilst not capable of hunting subs, they would be ideal for dealing with littoral threats presented by pirates or low level swarm attacks in the Persian Gulf.

Something has to go, MRA4 is an acceptable loss, if part of the running costs can be diverted to increasing the UK's unmanned capabilities. Flog them to India, the country is looking for up to 20 maritime survailance platforms of different types.

Subs are still a serious threat, in fact if I was designing a force to challenge naval power projection; high quality AIP SSK along with comprehensive mobile shore defence (SSM/SPG) would be high on the agenda.

The maritime patrol role in the UK suffers from not being owned by the primary tasker. The RAF is not going to sacrifice Tornados for Nimrods; it probably takes a similar view on F35bs. Specifically on the MRA4 I don’t buy the change of requirement over its development cycle was the problem. Why basis it on such an old (and not great at the time either) design, so we were effectively designing a new aircraft for only maybe 9? planes. Why not just use a modern proven platform (A330 comes to mind commonality with the tankers??). Alternatively as this was always going to be low volume (even when at 21 aircraft) just buy an off the shelf design and de risk the whole project.

The appalling decision making around this project is more worrying than the actual outcome. There seems to be no general industrial strategy on what to: UK build, UK design, buy off the shelf, go into JVs on and who to go into JVs with, (and why) and when to try counter trade deals. The merits and reasoning behind these decisions. And before anyone say an agreement to share out construction of ships between yards and ship the blocks around the country is an industrial strategy, it is not, it's short term and ducking hard decisions.
 

1805

New Member
RAF will bite the bullet and end up with two manned fast air platforms Typhoon and F35B. I do agree F35B should be an FAA asset only though.

The current thinking appears to be keep QE active with fifty F35B's ordered for both RAF & FAA and keep a down graded PW in reserve to be used only as a back-up when QE is in refit.

The RAF will end up supplementing its manned platforms with cheaper UAV/UCAV's hopefully capable of carrier deployment. So not all bad news, they will soon have 10 Reapers online.

By cutting back the number of fixed wing fast air there's an argument for cancelling the hugely expensive PFI tanker deal and go for a cheaper alternative.

50 F35B's should allow for at least 12 to be based permanently aboard QE during peace time, surging to twice that if required for active service. 12 will also allow for a sizable number of Merlin, Wildcat and Apache to provide additional support to 3 Commando.

On a brighter note should the economy improve a second batch of F35B's and an upgrade of PW can be financed.

I do agree on the exit of the Tornados, regrettable though it is, they will require upgrades at some point, just pouring good money after bad. I hope they don’t do a token order of more Reapers. I would rather they focus on getting some of the interest BAe prototypes into production.

The cuts may not be that bad if we:

• Sell 2 Bays
• Exit the 4 T22
• Exit all the Tornados GRs
• Cut the Typhoon to 160
• Cut the F35b to 50-60
• Reduce the tankers to 10-12
• Watch T26 design very carefully, one laid down every 3 years
• 6 SSN and 3 SSBN one laid down every 3 years
• A sensible RFA replacement single design, nearer a Rover (c15,000t), than a Wave. With a hanger for 2 helicopters. I would pay the extra and build in the UK from the same yard (H&W ideally) 4 laid down at 2-3 years intervals to replace the: Rovers, Fort 1 & 2.
• Exit Argus.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

RAF will bite the bullet and end up with two manned fast air platforms Typhoon and F35B. I do agree F35B should be an FAA asset only though.

The current thinking appears to be keep QE active with fifty F35B's ordered for both RAF & FAA and keep a down graded PW in reserve to be used only as a back-up when QE is in refit.

The RAF will end up supplementing its manned platforms with cheaper UAV/UCAV's hopefully capable of carrier deployment. So not all bad news, they will soon have 10 Reapers online.

By cutting back the number of fixed wing fast air there's an argument for cancelling the hugely expensive PFI tanker deal and go for a cheaper alternative.

50 F35B's should allow for at least 12 to be based permanently aboard QE during peace time, surging to twice that if required for active service. 12 will also allow for a sizable number of Merlin, Wildcat and Apache to provide additional support to 3 Commando.

On a brighter note should the economy improve a second batch of F35B's and an upgrade of PW can be financed.
Its not efficient to have dual control over fighter sqn. The sqn has either got to be a FAA or a RAF sqn. 50 isn't going to create many sqns (possibly 2 at most + OCU). Unless its going to be a split between RAF and the fleet air arm, which makes procurement/maintenance difficult, it make sense to consol such small numbers into either the RAF or the RN.

Am aware of the air group complements
Navy Matters | Future Aircraft Carrier Part 23

If anyone is going to stick just 9-12 F-35s onto a carrier, they could have just stuck with the Invincible class cvs.
 

Troothsayer

New Member
I fear the result of keeping 2 CVF's will not let the rest of the fleet get off as lightly as that 1805.

I don't like the constant reference to 'ALL amphibious shipping'
 

riksavage

Banned Member
Its not efficient to have dual control over fighter sqn. The sqn has either got to be a FAA or a RAF sqn. 50 isn't going to create many sqns (possibly 2 at most + OCU). Unless its going to be a split between RAF and the fleet air arm, which makes procurement/maintenance difficult, it make sense to consol such small numbers into either the RAF or the RN.

Am aware of the air group complements
Navy Matters | Future Aircraft Carrier Part 23

If anyone is going to stick just 9-12 F-35s onto a carrier, they could have just stuck with the Invincible class cvs.
12 F35B's in peace time maintains critical skills of ground crews and flight crews, plus if Ocean goes the carrier will have to host Wildcat, Merlin and Apache, not just F35B. Remember it will be a purple asset designed to support amphib/littoral operations, not just a dedicated strike platform. F35B will be used in the CAS not CAP role more often than not particularly if failed states keep popping up. The QE will then host a myriad of CAS assets (Apache and possibly some form of UAV/UCAV) to support strategic raiding.

An Iinvinciple class couldn't sustain 6 F35B + Helo, never mind 9. Plus the 6 x T45's brings so much added detection range and air defence capabilities to the table helping to off-set reduced numbers of F35B's, even if only two are attached to the carrier escort role. A 400 mile detection range afforded by the T45's is a dream come true for the resident flag.

The uk carrier docrine will be re-written to make the most of the QE's huge increase in real estate, they will push to have the vessel qualified to carry everything, including the kitchen sink. We should not look at the ship in terms of fixed wing only.
 

1805

New Member
I fear the result of keeping 2 CVF's will not let the rest of the fleet get off as lightly as that 1805.

I don't like the constant reference to 'ALL amphibious shipping'
I don't think there is an alternative to building both CVFs, and there are a lot painful cuts in the list (also no mention of Army armour aswell). I agree there is potential for one to be sold (Brazil/India could get a bargin). Both could have been afforded if more modest in size and construction spaced apart (why did we need PW till post 2020 there would not have been any aircraft anyway)

If they really mean "All amphibious shipping" then there is no need for a RN. We can get by with a few battalions of infantry for UN missions, cut all the Foreign Office spend down to just a consular services for getting drunken tourists out of local Thai jails, as we will not have a foreign policy.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

An Iinvinciple class couldn't sustain 6 F35B + Helo, never mind 9. Plus the 6 x T45's brings so much added detection range and air defence capabilities to the table helping to off-set reduced numbers of F35B's, even if only two are attached to the carrier escort role. A 400 mile detection range afforded by the T45's is a dream come true for the resident flag.
The Invincibles can operate as many as 18 Harriers. Are we saying that the F-35B has more than 3 times the size, crew and logistical train of the harrier?

The Type 42s have long range air surveillance radars as well. Much help it did in Falklands... Fallacy of ship borne radar vis a vis air control is clear, notwithstanding the improved range.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The problem with defence projects is that by the time the come to fruition in todays ever changing world they have either been superseded by technology or the threat has changed.

The MRA4 was designed to hunt modern submarines. It is a state of the art platform, which has amazing capabilities for ISTAR and sub hunting. Unfortunately it provides overkill in a time of austerity. Russian Akula's are no longer populating the North Atlantic at a level consitant with the orginal concept behind MRA4. And whilst the platform would be useful in A-Stan, there are cheaper and better solutions out there.

RAF Waddington will soon be up and running as the default UK center of excellence for UAV activity. Previously this was centered at Creech in the US. Whilst we have paid for MRA4, it remains a very expensive over spec'd asset to keep running over an expected life-cycle of 25 plus years. Whilst a modern UAV looks expensive on paper, over the long term it will prove far more versatile, easier to upgrade and cheaper to keep in the air. For example the UK would risk sending a modern UAV over hostile territory (recent Pakistan example), but never a manned platform unless total secrecy is guaranteed. The last thing the UK or any other western nation needs or wants is a Gary Powers moment. A shot down UAV whilst embarrassing is acceptable politically and on the home front. Plus the amount of time and energy companies such as BAE are putting into UAV/UCAV development it would not be too difficult to fit the selected system with marinized weapons (SeaSkua II for example). Whilst not capable of hunting subs, they would be ideal for dealing with littoral threats presented by pirates or low level swarm attacks in the Persian Gulf.

Something has to go, MRA4 is an acceptable loss, if part of the running costs can be diverted to increasing the UK's unmanned capabilities. Flog them to India, the country is looking for up to 20 maritime survailance platforms of different types.
I notice you've not said anything about satellite comms. Are you proposing that our entire airborne maritime patrol fleet should be subject to being switched off by the USA? To me, that is totally unacceptable. You're also a bit vague on Waddington. When you say 'centre of excellence', do you mean that we will cease controlling UAVs from Creech, & move everything to Waddington? If not, again, it's unacceptable.

You seem happy to dispense with airborne ASW completely, on the grounds that we no longer face the Red Hordes. You value it on how much use it might be in Afghanistan. To me, that sounds incredibly short-sighted, akin to General Dannat's proposal to scrap virtually everything except COIN & pirate-chasing, on the grounds that that's what we're currently doing. Once you've lost a capability, it's damned hard to rebuild it.

You've also not really addressed the capital vs operating cost issue, & the timing of expenditure. You're proposing to invest now, in order to save in the long run. How does that address our current financial crisis? How will it save money in this parliament? Savings in the 2020s can't be offset against expenditure now: the Treasury will laugh at you. Anything which ignores that fact is pointless theorising.

I keep seeing this. People come up with ideas of how to save money over 20 years, but don't take into account what they'll cost over the next few years.

BTW, I agree that something has to give. For me, the first thing is the Rivet Joint deal. We've not spent money on it yet, it'll cost us at least a billion over the next few years, plus future running costs (ancient airframes with engines & systems used by no other RAF types - ouch!).. What's your opinion on that?
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

I notice you've not said anything about satellite comms. Are you proposing that our entire airborne maritime patrol fleet should be subject to being switched off by the USA? To me, that is totally unacceptable. You're also a bit vague on Waddington. When you say 'centre of excellence', do you mean that we will cease controlling UAVs from Creech, & move everything to Waddington? If not, again, it's unacceptable.

You seem happy to dispense with airborne ASW completely, on the grounds that we no longer face the Red Hordes. You value it on how much use it might be in Afghanistan. To me, that sounds incredibly short-sighted, akin to General Dannat's proposal to scrap virtually everything except COIN & pirate-chasing, on the grounds that that's what we're currently doing. Once you've lost a capability, it's damned hard to rebuild it.

You've also not really addressed the capital vs operating cost issue, & the timing of expenditure. You're proposing to invest now, in order to save in the long run. How does that address our current financial crisis? How will it save money in this parliament? Savings in the 2020s can't be offset against expenditure now: the Treasury will laugh at you. Anything which ignores that fact is pointless theorising.

I keep seeing this. People come up with ideas of how to save money over 20 years, but don't take into account what they'll cost over the next few years.

BTW, I agree that something has to give. For me, the first thing is the Rivet Joint deal. We've not spent money on it yet, it'll cost us at least a billion over the next few years, plus future running costs (ancient airframes with engines & systems used by no other RAF types - ouch!).. What's your opinion on that?
The entire MR fleet isn't going to disappear. The first production MR4 is already in service (barely). The outstanding balance on the GBP3.65b project is less than GBP200m.

MoD's previous response of "pure speculation" comes in handy.

I think the question is more "will they stop at 3+9"? That is a likely yes.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The entire MR fleet isn't going to disappear. The first production MR4 is already in service (barely). The outstanding balance on the GBP3.65b project is less than GBP200m.
I hope you're right, but to my surprise, there are plenty of people who seem to think it makes sense to scrap or try to sell (despite the lack of any customers - India isn't going to buy MRA4 as well as P-8I) the entire fleet. Some propose buying cheaper aircraft, some say we should only have UAVs.
 

harryriedl

Active Member
Verified Defense Pro
I hope you're right, but to my surprise, there are plenty of people who seem to think it makes sense to scrap or try to sell (despite the lack of any customers - India isn't going to buy MRA4 as well as P-8I) the entire fleet. Some propose buying cheaper aircraft, some say we should only have UAVs.
I quite like the Rivet joint deal as it maintains a system which few nations have and something like that will always have a value due to the few airframes set up of that use the USAF only has about 20 frames so that capability is always in demand. I believe that they are/were being fitted with HELIX. A larger plane compared with a Nimrod being beneficial.

I would prefer to lose personal rather the kit. Their generally easier to replace these days ;)
 

AndrewMI

New Member
The Invincibles can operate as many as 18 Harriers. Are we saying that the F-35B has more than 3 times the size, crew and logistical train of the harrier?

The Type 42s have long range air surveillance radars as well. Much help it did in Falklands... Fallacy of ship borne radar vis a vis air control is clear, notwithstanding the improved range.
The best thing we can have in this regard is the New Hawkeye and the Co-operative engagement capability. That would revolutionise a UK Carrier Battle Group.
 

riksavage

Banned Member
The Invincibles can operate as many as 18 Harriers. Are we saying that the F-35B has more than 3 times the size, crew and logistical train of the harrier?

The Type 42s have long range air surveillance radars as well. Much help it did in Falklands... Fallacy of ship borne radar vis a vis air control is clear, notwithstanding the improved range.
Please enlighten me as to the range of the T42's radar compared to the 400 mile range of the T45? Also critically during the Falklands the T42 could not determine friend from foe, which meant they had to remain outside the box dedicated to Harrier. Also the intense level of 'clutter' in and arounf the Islands would have tested even the most advanced ships sensors in 82. The T45 can track 100's of targets simultaneously and (assuming the right equipment is fitted) determine friend from foe and engage accordingly.

And when has an Invincible ever carried 18 Harriers in an operational context from the get go, never? Let's separate fantasy from reality, sustaining operations is more than simply cramming airframes inside a hanger, what about crewing, logistics, maintenance cycles and the other rotary assets required (AeW & S&R.), which have to be carried.
 
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weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Please enlighten me as to the range of the T42's radar compared to the 400 mile range of the T45? Also critically during the Falklands the T42 could not determine friend from foe, which meant they had to remain outside the box dedicated to Harrier. Also the intense level of 'clutter' in and arounf the Islands would have tested even the most advanced ships sensors in 82. The T45 can track 100's of targets simultaneously and (assuming the right equipment is fitted) determine friend from foe and engage accordingly.
Type 965 - detection range 220nm (400km). That's to tackle exocet missiles with 38nm ranges. Today, its tackling much longer ranged anti-ship missiles like 156nm ranged Brahmos or 215+nm range YJ-62s which outrange the Aster 30s. The detection vs missile range ratios have significantly dropped since '82 even as detection range has gone up to 345nm. The EW capabilities on aggressor aircraft have improved (when there were none in Falklands). Ingress speeds have increased and so have detection ranges of maritime patrol a/c. That's not even counting the fact that a/c load-outs have increased massively so instead of single exocets, we're talking about multiple bogeys from multiple vectors. The amount of early warning time may not be significantly enhanced (and may indeed be reduced) from '82 once one takes into account these factors.

The Type 42s had IFF. In fact, that pretty standard since 1942 even in the ww2 sheffields CLs.

The optimism on the Type 42 capability demonstrated during the early 80s appears to be now replicated with the type 45. Ultimately, my point is rather than looking at absolute capabilities, it also has to be relative to the potential aggressor's capabilities. And shipborne radar still suffers from the standard inherent disadvantages of ground/surface based radar.

No doubt, the Type 45s are more effective than the Type 42s. But can they deal with current air threats more effectively than the anti air warfare Type 42s could do with their adversaries? You are entitled to your optimism but my views are tainted by the '82 experience.

And when has an Invincible ever carried 18 Harriers in an operational context from the get go, never? Let's separate fantasy from reality, sustaining operations is more than simply cramming airframes inside a hanger, what about crewing, logistics, maintenance cycles and the other rotary assets required (AeW & S&R.), which have to be carried.
The total aircraft complement of the Invincibles have been maxed out ie 22/23 in the Falklands (just that it was with 9 sea kings). The question is whether 6 F-35Bs exceeds the max a/c complement when operating with just 4-8 sea kings.

What exactly is fantasy is stating 6 F-35Bs + a complement of 8 sea kings will need more pilots and maintainers than what the Invincible can operate.

Same thing with logistical requirements eg fuel, spares, logistical footprint etc. Maintenance cycles have absolutely nothing to do with ops at sea and even then, to state that 6 F-35Bs can't be maintained on the Invincibles is again not borne by any objective analysis. As to rotary assets, that's according to mission. As you can see, surge mission for the CVF entails only 4 helos to allow 36 F-35s to be based. Same thing can be done with the Invincibles.

Ultimately, the statement that the Invincibles can't operate even 6 F-35s on a sustained basis is not supported by fact but only unsubstantiated assumptions.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
UK and France in talks on Trident maintenance

just seen this...:

UK and France in talks on Trident maintenance

By James Blitz in London and Ben Hall in Paris

Published: October 7 2010 22:30 | Last updated: October 7 2010 22:30

An agreement being negotiated by the UK and France would see British nuclear warheads serviced by French scientists and break with half a century in which neither country has collaborated on its independent deterrent.

Ahead of a summit in three weeks, the governments are close to agreeing that Britain would use a French laboratory to help maintain and service its 160 nuclear warheads, officials in both countries say.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
High hopes for Anglo-French nuclear accord - Oct-07

In depth: UK spending - Jun-14

Lombard: UK defence / Pensions / Banker Q&A - Oct-07

Aircraft carrier orders likely to survive - Oct-06

Fox backs Trident submarine patrols - Sep-13

France and UK seek closer military ties - Sep-03



A deal to share the secrets of their nuclear programmes would boost powerfully defence collaboration between the countries and save money at a time when their defence budgets are under stress.

Britain and France run completely different deterrent systems with all details kept secret. The scheme would give Britain access for the first time to France’s Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, which maintains about 300 warheads in the French force de frappe.

In effect, the CEA would service UK nuclear warheads, raising concerns among politicians in both countries about whether their governments were maintaining an independent deterrent.

According to a person familiar with the negotiations, Britain has consulted the US over the proposed move. A US-UK treaty forbids Britain from sharing its nuclear secrets with another country because the UK deterrent, built on the Trident D5 missile, is in large part based on US technology.

François Heisbourg, a French defence analyst, said sharing warhead research would assume “that the British break their very special relationship with America in that field”. This would require considerable “confidence on the US part”.

Defence chiefs have ruled out schemes such as joint submarine patrols by France and Britain in the Atlantic. London and Paris believe that collaborating on warheads would make sense.

France and Britain are signatories to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and therefore forbidden to conduct destructive tests.

As warheads decay or are modified, scientists need to establish through computer simulation how their potential functioning has changed.

France would charge the UK for access to CEA facilities. But the UK would avoid having to build its own expensive simulation laboratories to maintain the effectiveness of the warheads it possesses.

“If we don’t share some of these capabilities, we will lose them,” said a British defence insider

“But making progress is easier now than it was. France is in Nato and many of the issues that divided us in the past – such as the Iraq war – have now disappeared.”
 
...No doubt, the Type 45s are more effective than the Type 42s. But can they deal with current air threats more effectively than the anti air warfare Type 42s could do with their adversaries? You are entitled to your optimism but my views are tainted by the '82 experience....
:spam

Moores Law: think about the capabilities of your computer (if you were lucky to have one) in 1982 versus the one you are posting with. Add-in modern compilers and optimisers and it's a pretty safe bet that the Type-45 will be more then able to deal with current threats.*

The key feature for PAAMS is it's speed. Flying at Mach 4.0 gives you a much wider envelop for intercept without collateral damage. The only limitation with PAAMS are it's legs; good news if you are a CVF proponent.

* Although Al-Beeb thinks that all fifth-generation aircraft are invisible to radar.... :shudder
 
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